In this paper, we investigate Parisian ruin for a Lévy surplus process with an adaptive premium rate, namely a refracted Lévy process. More general Parisian boundary-crossing problems with a deterministic implementation delay are also considered. Our main contribution is a generalization of the result in Loeffen et al.…
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48 results for “Parisian delays”
In this paper we consider dividend problem for an insurance company whose risk evolves as a spectrally negative Lévy process (in the absence of dividend payments) when Parisian delay is applied. The objective function is given by the cumulative discounted dividends received until the moment of ruin when so-called barri…
Study on Parisian ruin with hybrid observation times.
problem Calculating Parisian ruin under a hybrid observation scheme.
method Hybrid observation scheme with Poisson arrivals and continuous monitoring below zero.
result Improved results and fluctuation identities in terms of second-generation scale functions.
The paper defines and analyzes Poissonian occupation times for negative Lévy processes.
problem Analyzing the time spent below zero for Lévy processes with interruptions.
method Introduces Poissonian occupation times for spectrally negative Lévy processes.
result Extends results on continuous observation to interrupted observation.
In this paper we analyze so-called Parisian ruin probability that happens when surplus process stays below zero longer than fixed amount of time . We focus on general spectrally negative Lévy insurance risk process. For this class of processes we identify expression for ruin probability in terms of some other quan…
Method calculates Parisian stopping times and option prices using Markov chains.
problem Computing distribution and pricing of Parisian stopping times under Markov processes.
method Continuous-time Markov chain approximation to solve for distribution and convergence analysis.
result Sharp convergence rate and efficient method for diffusion and jump models.
In this paper, we price American-style Parisian down-and-in call options under the Black-Scholes framework. Usually, pricing an American-style option is much more difficult than pricing its European-style counterpart because of the appearance of the optimal exercise boundary in the former. Fortunately, the optimal exer…
This paper develops methods for pricing American Parisian options under general Markov models.
problem Pricing American Parisian options with various types and payoff functions.
method General approaches using CTMC approximation for time-inhomogeneous Markov models, including state augmentation and variational inequalities.
result Efficient algorithms for pricing American Parisian options confirmed with numerical experiments.
Parisian excursion with capital injection for draw-down reflected Levy insurance risk processq-fin.MF
The paper analyzes insurance risk with Parisian ruin and capital injection.
problem Analyzing insurance risk with Parisian ruin and capital injection.
method Using fluctuation and excursion theory of spectrally negative Levy processes.
result Distributional identities and ruin probabilities are derived.
In this paper, we obtain analytical expression for the distribution of the occupation time in the red (below level ) up to an (independent) exponential horizon for spectrally negative Lévy risk processes and refracted spectrally negative Lévy risk processes. This result improves the existing literature in which only…
In this note we give, for a spectrally negative Levy process, a compact formula for the Parisian ruin probability, which is defined by the probability that the process exhibits an excursion below zero, with a length that exceeds a certain fixed period r. The formula involves only the scale function of the spectrally ne…
Parisian excursion below a fixed level from the last record maximum of Levy insurance risk processmath.PR
This paper presents some new results on Parisian ruin under Levy insurance risk process, where ruin occurs when the process has gone below a fixed level from the last record maximum, also known as the high-water mark or drawdown, for a fixed consecutive periods of time. The law of ruin-time and the position at ruin is …
This note re-addresses the Paris barrier options proposed by Yor and collaborators and their valuation using the Laplace transform approach. The notion of Paris barrier options, based on excursion theory and using the Brownian meander, is extended such that their valuation is now possible at any point during their life…
Develops a stochastic approach to financial market delays.
problem Modeling delays in financial markets with multiple assets.
method Introduces a general stochastic framework for information and order execution delays.
result Delayed markets maintain fundamental asset pricing theorems and no asymptotic free lunch condition.
Paper tackles action delays in reinforcement learning, proposing a delay-aware framework.
problem Action delays degrade reinforcement learning performance in real-world systems.
method Formal definition of delay-aware MDP, transformation into standard MDP with augmented states, delay-aware model-based reinforcement learning framework.
result Proposed framework is more efficient in training and transferable between systems with various delay durations.
New algorithm tackles delayed feedback in Lipschitz bandits with sublinear regret.
problem Delayed feedback in Lipschitz bandits.
method Design of algorithms for bounded and unbounded stochastic delays.
result Sublinear regret guarantees for both bounded and unbounded delays.
New algorithms ensure fair selection in combinatorial semi-bandit with unrestricted delays.
problem Fair selection in stochastic combinatorial semi-bandit with delayed feedback.
method Introduced merit-based fairness constraints and new bandit algorithms for reward and fairness.
result Achieved sublinear expected reward and fairness regrets with dependence on delay distribution quantiles.
Banker-OMD improves online learning with delayed feedback.
problem Handling delayed feedback in online learning.
method Generalized Online Mirror Descent (OMD) framework.
result Achieves nearly-optimal performance in three bandit scenarios.
New algorithm handles delayed feedback robustly, reducing regret without knowing delay bounds.
problem Bandits with variably delayed feedback, especially excessive delays.
method Implicit exploration scheme, adaptive skipping, drifted regret control.
result Can tolerate arbitrary excessive delays up to order T, reducing regret.
Paper tackles delays in multi-agent reinforcement learning, improving performance.
problem Challenges in reinforcement learning due to delays in real-world systems.
method Proposes a novel framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning with delays, using Delay-Aware Markov Games and centralized-decentralized training.
result Demonstrates significant improvement in performance with delay-aware multi-agent reinforcement learning.
Synchronization in a market model with time delaysphysics.soc-ph
Study on synchronization in financial markets with time delays.
problem Understanding market dynamics and synchronization in financial systems with time delays.
method Examined a system of coupled non-linear delay-differential equations, linearized for small delays, and analyzed collective dynamics using bifurcation diagrams and numerical solutions.
result Demonstrated that limit cycles can be maintained in coupled N-asset models with appropriate parameterization, leading to market synchronization.
BayTiDe discovers time-delayed differential equations from noisy data.
problem Discovering time-delayed differential equations from data with large delays and noise.
method Bayesian inference with a sparsity-promoting prior.
result BayTiDe accurately identifies time-delayed differential equations with accuracy proportional to data resolution.
New algorithm tackles stochastic bandits with varying arm-dependent delays.
problem Applying existing algorithms to stochastic delayed bandit settings is restricted by strong assumptions on delay distributions.
method Proposes a simple UCB-based algorithm called PatientBandits that weakens assumptions on delay distributions.
result Provides bounds on regret and performance lower bounds for the PatientBandits algorithm.
TSMB handles time delays in multivariate time series data.
problem Varying time delays in multivariate time series data complicate predictions.
method Time Series Model Bootstrap (TSMB) framework for nonparametric time delay estimation.
result TSMB improves model performance in dynamic data environments.
We investigate multiarmed bandits with delayed feedback, where the delays need neither be identical nor bounded. We first prove that "delayed" Exp3 achieves the regret bound conjectured by Cesa-Bianchi et al. [2019] in the case of variable, but bounded delays. Here, is the number of actio…
Delayed-RNN approximates stacked and bidirectional RNNs.
problem Improving RNN expressiveness and representational capacity.
method Weight-constrained delayed-RNN, equivalent to stacked-RNNs, with partial acausality.
result Delayed-RNN can approximate stacked and bidirectional RNNs, outperforming them in some tasks.
New algorithm reduces regret in delayed feedback generalised linear bandits.
problem Regret in delayed feedback generalised linear bandits.
method Adaptation of optimistic algorithm to delayed feedback.
result Achieves a regret bound independent of the horizon's delay penalty.
Adapts Exp3 to adversarial bandits with delays and data.
problem Adversarial multi-armed bandits with delayed feedback.
method Tuned Exp3 variants with step-size adaptation and implicit exploration.
result Optimal regret bounds of with high probability.
Capacity-Constrained Online Convex Optimization with Delayed Feedback
problem Online learning with delayed feedback under a hard capacity constraint
method Reduction to a delayed and weighted OCO problem using a scheduler
result First regret guarantees for capacity-constrained OCO under convex and strongly convex losses
New algorithm tackles non-stationary delayed feedback in recommender systems.
problem Challenges in learning from delayed feedback in non-stationary environments.
method Developed a UCRL-based algorithm for non-stationary, delayed bandits with intermediate observations.
result Sublinear regret guarantees for the proposed algorithm in non-stationary delayed environments.
Procrastinated Tree Search: Black-box Optimization with Delayed, Noisy, and Multi-Fidelity Feedbackcs.LG
PCTS optimizes noisy, delayed, multi-fidelity feedbacks in black-box optimization.
problem Optimizing unknown functions with noisy, delayed, and multi-fidelity feedbacks.
method ProCrastinated Tree Search (PCTS) with DUCB1 and DUCBV algorithms.
result PCTS achieves better regret bounds for delayed, noisy, and multi-fidelity feedbacks.
Predicting conversion rates (CVRs) in display advertising (e.g., predicting the proportion of users who purchase an item (i.e., a conversion) after its corresponding ad is clicked) is important when measuring the effects of ads shown to users and to understanding the interests of the users. There is generally a time de…
We study a variant of the stochastic -armed bandit problem, which we call "bandits with delayed, aggregated anonymous feedback". In this problem, when the player pulls an arm, a reward is generated, however it is not immediately observed. Instead, at the end of each round the player observes only the sum of a number…
Study online learning with delays and capacity constraints, achieving optimal regret bounds.
problem Online learning with delays and capacity constraints.
method Novel scheduling and preemptive techniques, matching upper and lower bounds.
result Achieves optimal regret bounds across all capacity levels.
Online learning with delayed feedback has received increasing attention recently due to its several applications in distributed, web-based learning problems. In this paper we provide a systematic study of the topic, and analyze the effect of delay on the regret of online learning algorithms. Somewhat surprisingly, it t…
Federated learning technique improves convergence speed with communication delays.
problem Communication delays between edge nodes and aggregator in federated learning.
method Developed FedDelAvg, a technique that generalizes federated averaging to incorporate a weighting between current local model and delayed global model.
result FedDelAvg achieves a significant improvement in convergence speed, especially when optimizing the weighting scheme to account for delays.
A delayed dual risk modelq-fin.RM
Study a dual risk model with innovation delays, focusing on ruin probability and time.
problem Analyzing risk models with innovation delays affecting ruin probability and time.
method Delayed dual risk model with innovation delays, focusing on ruin probability and time.
result Closed-form formulas for ruin probability and time in some special cases.
Study on unimodality of plucking polynomial with delay function.
problem Exploring unimodality of plucking polynomial with delay function.
method Presented a formula for the plucking polynomial of hedgehog rooted trees and explored unimodality with specific delay functions.
result Found interesting examples and speculations on unimodality of plucking polynomials with delay functions.
New algorithms reduce forecasting errors by leveraging optimistic learning and hinting.
problem Real-time climate forecasting with delayed feedback.
method Developed optimistic online learning algorithms that reduce regret under delayed feedback.
result Optimistic learning algorithms achieve optimal regret guarantees under delayed feedback.
We provide tight finite-time convergence bounds for gradient descent and stochastic gradient descent on quadratic functions, when the gradients are delayed and reflect iterates from rounds ago. First, we show that without stochastic noise, delays strongly affect the attainable optimization error: In fact, the error…
A new algorithm tackles delayed combinatorial semi-bandit with causal relations.
problem Optimizing decisions in a non-stationary environment with delayed and causally related rewards.
method Formalized as a non-stationary delayed combinatorial semi-bandit problem, the approach models causal relations with a directed graph in a stationary structural equation model. The agent learns these relations from delayed feedback to optimize decisions.
result Proved a regret bound for the proposed algorithm's performance.
We propose a model to study the effects of delayed information on option pricing. We first talk about the absence of arbitrage in our model, and then discuss super replication with delayed information in a binomial model, notably, we present a closed form formula for the price of convex contingent claims. Also, we addr…
Stochastic delay differential equations (SDDE's) have been used for financial modeling. In this article, we study a SDDE obtained by the equation of a CIR process, with an additional fixed delay term in drift; in particular, we prove that there exists a unique strong solution (positive and integrable) which we call fix…
New method estimates traffic congestion delays using statistical causality.
problem Accurate estimation of traffic congestion delays during accidents.
method Proposes a novel time delay estimation method using lag-specific transfer entropy (TE) and Markov bootstrap techniques.
result Validated the method's efficacy using simulated and real data.
New method solves stochastic control problems with delays using deep learning.
problem Stochastic control problems with delayed control in drift and diffusion.
method Characterization via Riccati PDEs and deep learning scheme.
result Illustrates effect of delay on Markowitz portfolio allocation problem.
Adapts two algorithms for online learning with delayed rewards.
problem Online learning with delayed rewards in generalized linear contextual bandits.
method Modifies upper confidence bounds and Thompson sampling algorithms for delayed rewards.
result Both algorithms can be made robust to delays, improving their performance.
Neural Laplace Control tackles offline RL for continuous-time delayed systems with irregular observations.
problem Offline reinforcement learning problems involving continuous-time environments with delays and irregular observations.
method Combines a Neural Laplace dynamics model with a model predictive control (MPC) planner.
result Achieves near expert policy performance on continuous-time delayed environments.
This study analyzes and predicts airline delays using machine learning models.
problem Improving the accuracy of predicting airline flight delays.
method The study combines airline and weather datasets, using various machine learning models (Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, K-NN, Decision Tree, Random Forest) to predict flight delays.
result The Random Forest model achieved an accuracy of 82% in predicting flight delays of 15 minutes or more.