A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Autoencoder optimizes data embedding for accurate PDF reproduction.
New method for credible intervals of Covid19 reproduction number.
New MC simulation methods use classifiers to estimate pdf ratios without explicit pdfs.
We investigate the historical volatility of the 100 most capitalized stocks traded in US equity markets. An empirical probability density function (pdf) of volatility is obtained and compared with the theoretical predictions of a lognormal model and of the Hull and White model. The lognormal model well describes the pd…
Density destructors simplify complex PDFs to maximize entropy, linking to information theory.
New method calibrates photometric redshift PDFs more accurately.
This work improves density estimation by characterizing pdf complexity using NL-spectrum.
SINF models transform arbitrary PDFs to target PDFs using 1D slices.
This report has several purposes. First, our report is written to investigate the reproducibility of the submitted paper On the regularization of Wasserstein GANs (2018). Second, among the experiments performed in the submitted paper, five aspects were emphasized and reproduced: learning speed, stability, robustness ag…
Diffusion models explained via cognitive science.
The paper introduces flat-topped PDFs for better fitting machine learning models.
We analyze the probability density function (PDF) of waiting times between financial loss exceedances. The empirical PDFs are fitted with the self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson process with a long power law memory kernel. The Hawkes process is the simplest extension of the Poisson process that takes into account h…
In this paper, we address the fundamental problem of line spectral estimation in a Bayesian framework. We target model order and parameter estimation via variational inference in a probabilistic model in which the frequencies are continuous-valued, i.e., not restricted to a grid; and the coefficients are governed by a …
A probability density function (pdf) encodes the entire stochastic knowledge about data distribution, where data may represent stochastic observations in robotics, transition state pairs in reinforcement learning or any other empirically acquired modality. Inferring data pdf is of prime importance, allowing to analyze …
Report presents analysis of empirical distribution of future returns of bitcoin (BTC) from BTUSD inverse option prices. Logistic pdf is chosen as underlying distribution to fit option prices. The result is satisfactory and suggests that these prices can be described with just three or even one parameter. Fitted Logisti…
In the Black-Scholes context we consider the probability distribution function (PDF) of financial returns implied by volatility smile and we study the relation between the decay of its tails and the fitting parameters of the smile. We show that, considering a scaling law derived from data, it is possible to get a new f…
We report the proof that the expression of extended Gibrat's law is unique and the probability distribution function (pdf) is also uniquely derived from the law of detailed balance and the extended Gibrat's law. In the proof, two approximations are employed that the pdf of growth rate is described as tent-shaped expone…
We report the proof that the extension of Gibrat's law in the middle scale region is unique and the probability distribution function (pdf) is also uniquely derived from the extended Gibrat's law and the law of detailed balance. In the proof, two approximations are employed. The pdf of growth rate is described as tent-…
As the Portable Document Format (PDF) file format increases in popularity, research in analysing its structure for text extraction and analysis is necessary. Detecting headings can be a crucial component of classifying and extracting meaningful data. This research involves training a supervised learning model to detect…
A novel text-independent speaker identification (SI) method is proposed. This method uses the Mel-frequency Cepstral coefficients (MFCCs) and the dynamic information among adjacent frames as feature sets to capture speaker's characteristics. In order to utilize dynamic information, we design super-MFCCs features by cas…
In data science, it is often required to estimate dependencies between different data sources. These dependencies are typically calculated using Pearson's correlation, distance correlation, and/or mutual information. However, none of these measures satisfy all the Granger's axioms for an "ideal measure". One such ideal…
In this letter, we present a novel exponentially embedded families (EEF) based classification method, in which the probability density function (PDF) on raw data is estimated from the PDF on features. With the PDF construction, we show that class-specific features can be used in the proposed classification method, inst…
Deep learning reduces noise in weak lensing mass maps using GANs.
Paper proposes using generalized lambda distributions for stochastic simulators.
Independent component analysis (ICA) is the most popular method for blind source separation (BSS) with a diverse set of applications, such as biomedical signal processing, video and image analysis, and communications. Maximum likelihood (ML), an optimal theoretical framework for ICA, requires knowledge of the true unde…
A step by step procedure to derive analytically the exact dynamical evolution equations of the probability density functions (PDF) of well known kinetic wealth exchange economic models is shown. This technique gives a dynamical insight into the evolution of the PDF, e.g., allowing the calculation of its relaxation time…
The article derives a novel Gram-Charlier A (GCA) Series based Extended Rule-of-Thumb (ExROT) for bandwidth selection in Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). There are existing various bandwidth selection rules achieving minimization of the Asymptotic Mean Integrated Square Error (AMISE) between the estimated probability d…
Develops a neural network approach to solve inverse stochastic problems from particle observations.
New framework quantifies uncertainty in data and models using RKHS.
Physics-informed neural networks approximate diffusion process pdfs efficiently.
One aim of data mining is the identification of interesting structures in data. For better analytical results, the basic properties of an empirical distribution, such as skewness and eventual clipping, i.e. hard limits in value ranges, need to be assessed. Of particular interest is the question of whether the data orig…
We have successfully implemented the "Learn to Pay Attention" model of attention mechanism in convolutional neural networks, and have replicated the results of the original paper in the categories of image classification and fine-grained recognition.
Many financial variables are found to exhibit multifractal nature, which is usually attributed to the influence of temporal correlations and fat-tailedness in the probability distribution (PDF). Based on the partition function approach of multifractal analysis, we show that there is a marked finite-size effect in the d…
Paper uses AI to improve medical diagnosis accuracy.
Proposes a deep learning method for uncertainty propagation in complex systems.
I propose a frequency domain adaptation of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm to group a family of time series in classes of similar dynamic structure. It does this by viewing the magnitude of the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) of each signal (or power spectrum) as a probability density/mass function (pdf/pm…
The study predicts health risks of young migrants using machine learning.
CDF2PDF is a method of PDF estimation by approximating CDF. The original idea of it was previously proposed in [1] called SIC. However, SIC requires additional hyper-parameter tunning, and no algorithms for computing higher order derivative from a trained NN are provided in [1]. CDF2PDF improves SIC by avoiding the tim…
In this paper, the performance of three deep learning methods for predicting short-term evolution and for reproducing the long-term statistics of a multi-scale spatio-temporal Lorenz 96 system is examined. The methods are: echo state network (a type of reservoir computing, RC-ESN), deep feed-forward artificial neural n…
The paper integrates multiple Gaussian process predictions using Monte Carlo sampling.
Power system studies require the topological structures of real-world power networks; however, such data is confidential due to important security concerns. Thus, power grid synthesis (PGS), i.e., creating realistic power grids that imitate actual power networks, has gained significant attention. In this letter, we cas…
The Fisher information matrix (FIM) is a foundational concept in statistical signal processing. The FIM depends on the probability distribution, assumed to belong to a smooth parametric family. Traditional approaches to estimating the FIM require estimating the probability distribution function (PDF), or its parameters…
Unified framework for portfolio optimization using gain PDF.
We develop a method for the evaluation of extreme event statistics associated with nonlinear dynamical systems, using a small number of samples. From an initial dataset of design points, we formulate a sequential strategy that provides the 'next-best' data point (set of parameters) that when evaluated results in improv…
Most signal processing problems involve the challenging task of multidimensional probability density function (PDF) estimation. In this work, we propose a solution to this problem by using a family of Rotation-based Iterative Gaussianization (RBIG) transforms. The general framework consists of the sequential applicatio…
Unified framework for PDF estimation using MDL-based binning and tensor factorization.
In this paper, a nonparametric maximum likelihood (ML) estimator for band-limited (BL) probability density functions (pdfs) is proposed. The BLML estimator is consistent and computationally efficient. To compute the BLML estimator, three approximate algorithms are presented: a binary quadratic programming (BQP) algorit…
DocParser parses document structures from renderings like PDFs and scans.