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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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69138206275 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Output Bias

Unified framework for output analysis using Monte Carlo sampling.

problem Accurately assess the quality of estimated values in predictive models.
method Unified output analysis framework through Monte Carlo sampling, leveraging fast iterative bootstrap sampling and higher-order influence functions.
result Clear advantage in building more robust confidence intervals with higher coverage probability.

Research reveals simplicity bias in random logistic map, impacting data analysis and forecasting.

problem Simplicity bias in dynamical systems and its impact on data analysis and prediction.
method Examined the logistic map and random logistic map, focusing on simplicity bias and noise effects.
result Simplicity bias is observable in the random logistic map, persisting even with small noise levels.

This paper corrects climate model biases using a factor model approach.

problem Systematic biases in GCM outputs due to unobserved confounders.
method Factor model approach to learn latent confounders from historical data and apply them to enhance bias correction.
result Significant improvements in the accuracy of precipitation outputs.

This paper introduces a multi-output Gaussian process for censored data.

problem Modeling bias in censored data using correlations between multiple outputs.
method Heteroscedastic multi-output Gaussian process with input-dependent noise and variational inference.
result The model better estimates the true process under complex censoring dynamics.

Linking output sensitivity to deep learning generalization.

problem Understanding and comparing the generalization properties of deep neural networks.
method Linking the loss function to output sensitivity and analyzing its relation to bias-variance decomposition.
result Output sensitivity is a strong metric for comparing generalization performance of deep networks.

Characterizes inductive bias in multi-channel linear CNNs with bounded weight norm.

problem Understanding the inductive bias in multi-channel linear convolutional networks.
method Function space characterization and empirical testing of gradient descent.
result The inductive bias depends on the number of output channels for multi-channel inputs but not for single-channel inputs.

Model predicts political ideology using context vectors to mitigate bias and scarcity.

problem Scarcity and selection bias in political ideology prediction.
method Proposes a statistical model decomposing embeddings into context and position vectors, training an end-to-end model for deployment.
result Model can predict ideological labels even with minimal biased data, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.

This study investigates abrupt learning dynamics in Transformers, revealing plateau formation and internal representation collapse.

problem Abrupt learning in Transformers, particularly during the loss plateau.
method Investigates mechanisms of abrupt learning in shallow Transformers, focusing on attention maps and hidden states.
result Reveals plateau formation, internal representation collapse, and strong repetition bias in outputs.

Stochastic Gradient Descent shows directional bias with moderate learning rates, impacting optimization outcomes.

problem Understanding the bias of SGD with moderate learning rates in practical scenarios.
method Analyzing SGD and GD on an overparameterized linear regression problem.
result SGD converges along large eigenvalue directions, GD along small ones, affecting early stopping outcomes.

The influence of human judgement is ubiquitous in datasets used across the analytics industry, yet humans are known to be sub-optimal decision makers prone to various biases. Analysing biased datasets then leads to biased outcomes of the analysis. Bias by protected characteristics (e.g. race) is of particular interest …

2020-02-23abs ↗pdf ↗

New method preserves GCM spatial dependencies for better climate projections.

problem Systemic biases in GCM output and loss of spatial/temporal dependencies.
method SPECD approach using Vecchia approximation and semi-parametric quantile regression.
result SPECD preserves key marginal and joint distribution properties of precipitation and temperature.

Edge language models show bias over time, especially on resource-constrained devices.

problem Bias in edge language models on resource-constrained devices.
method Comparative analysis of text-based bias across edge, cloud, and desktop environments; optimized Llama-2 model on Raspberry Pi 4; feedback loop mechanism to correct bias.
result Llama-2 on Raspberry Pi 4 shows 43.23% and 21.89% more bias over time compared to cloud and desktop models.

The paper introduces Relative Bias to quantify LLM bias systematically.

problem Quantifying bias in LLMs is challenging due to ambiguity and rapid model emergence.
method Relative Bias framework using Embedding Transformation and LLM-as-a-Judge methodologies.
result The two scoring methods show strong alignment, providing a systematic approach.

A hybrid strategy forecasts short-term loads using Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting.

problem Lack of effective short-term load forecasting methods.
method Hybrid strategy integrating four different inference models: tree-based ensemble method Warm-start Gradient Tree Boosting (WGTB).
result Demonstrates effectiveness of hybrid strategy on real datasets.

Proposes a three-stage debiasing framework to improve out-of-distribution accuracy.

problem Inaccurate uncertainty estimations in bias-only models damage ensemble-based debiasing performance.
method Calibrates the bias-only model to improve its uncertainty estimations, creating a three-stage ensemble-based debiasing framework.
result The three-stage debiasing framework consistently outperforms traditional methods in out-of-distribution accuracy.

Study on neural networks' performance under different normalizations as N grows.

problem Characterizing neural networks' performance under various normalizations.
method Developed an asymptotic expansion to analyze statistical output of shallow neural networks.
result No bias-variance trade-off exists to leading order in N, and variance decreases as normalization approaches mean field.

Matrix SMD converges to unique solution minimizing Bregman divergence.

problem High-dimensional multi-output classification and matrix completion problems.
method Stochastic Mirror Descent with matrix parameters and matrix mirror functions.
result Matrix SMD converges exponentially to the unique solution minimizing Bregman divergence.

New algorithm identifies causal relationships from graphs, even with selection bias.

problem Identifying causal relationships from graphs with selection bias.
method Developed a measure-theoretic version of Pearl's causal calculus and a sound, complete identification algorithm.
result General measure-theoretic version of causal calculus allows for identification of causal relationships under selection bias.

Regularization is an effective way to promote the generalization performance of machine learning models. In this paper, we focus on label smoothing, a form of output distribution regularization that prevents overfitting of a neural network by softening the ground-truth labels in the training data in an attempt to penal…

2020-01-07abs ↗pdf ↗

The study examines when to trust confidence thresholding in pseudo-labelling regression.

problem Calibrated probabilities from classifiers used for pseudo-labelling need careful handling to avoid bias in downstream regression.
method Developed a diagnostic apparatus to predict and bound the bias induced by confidence thresholding, derived a closed-form expression for the attenuation bias.
result The bias can be predicted from the residual score variance VV^{*}, motivating a structural separation between classifier features and downstream controls.

Feedback loops amplify dataset biases, affecting future model performance.

problem Feedback loops amplify biases in datasets, risking future model reliability.
method Formalized system where model interactions are recorded and reused, analyzed for bias amplification.
result Models that behave like samples from the training distribution are more stable and calibrated.

New methods correct bias in LLM-as-a-Judge evaluations, but reliability depends on judge quality and model calibration.

problem Systematic bias in LLM-as-a-Judge evaluations using naive estimators.
method Analytical results, simulations, and real-data case study to diagnose reliability of corrected estimates.
result Corrected estimates, especially shared-calibration comparisons, can be unreliable under certain conditions.

Sig-PCA integrates model outputs and observations to correct model biases.

problem Improving model accuracy and reliability by correcting biases and numerical approximations.
method Sig-PCA framework that combines summary statistics from model outputs with localized observations via a neural network.
result Corrects model outputs to align closely with observational data, preserving essential statistical information.

LatentNN corrects neural network attenuation bias in astronomical data.

problem Neural networks underestimate extreme values due to measurement errors.
method Jointly optimizes network parameters and latent input values.
result LatentNN reduces attenuation bias across various signal-to-noise ratios.

Estimates linear models from self-selected data, addressing econometric challenges.

problem Estimating linear models from self-selected data with known or unknown selection criteria.
method Developed efficient algorithms for both known and unknown selection criteria.
result Identified and estimated linear models from self-selected data, accommodating various selection criteria.

Transformers tend to learn more symmetric functions in sequence data.

problem Understanding inductive bias in Transformers with infinitely over-parameterized models.
method Analyzing Transformers in the Gaussian process limit, using representation theory of the symmetric group.
result Transformers are biased towards more permutation symmetric functions, and this can be quantitatively predicted.

Paper tackles underranking in group-fair ranking systems, proving a trade-off and presenting an algorithm.

problem Underranking in group-fair ranking systems can worsen social and economic inequalities.
method Formulated underranking as a new problem, proved a lower bound, and presented a fair ranking algorithm.
result Algorithm achieves best of underranking and group fairness, confirming theoretical trade-off.

What we discover and see online, and consequently our opinions and decisions, are becoming increasingly affected by automated machine learned predictions. Similarly, the predictive accuracy of learning machines heavily depends on the feedback data that we provide them. This mutual influence can lead to closed-loop inte…

2020-01-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Study suggests using information flow measures to target interventions in neural networks.

problem Identifying neural network edges that can be pruned to reduce bias.
method Used MM-information flow framework to measure and compare information flows about true labels and protected attributes, and evaluated pruning effects on bias reduction.
result Pruning edges with larger information flows about protected attributes reduces bias at the output.

Theoretical study shows AI models can recover from contaminated training data.

problem Data contamination in AI training can degrade model performance.
method Theoretical analysis and experiments on various data types.
result Models converge to true distribution under mild conditions, with rate dependent on real data fraction.

Technological improvement is the most important cause of long-term economic growth. We study the effects of technology improvement in the setting of a production network, in which each producer buys input goods and converts them to other goods, selling the product to households or other producers. We show how this netw…

2018-10-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Generative Augmented Inference improves AI-generated data for causal inference.

problem Challenges in using AI-generated annotations for reliable causal inference.
method Generative Augmented Inference (GAI) treats AI outputs as informative features for learning true labels, flexibly modeling the relationship using nonparametric methods.
result GAI significantly reduces estimation error and improves confidence interval quality compared to human-only and PPI-based methods.