The paper introduces a new divergence for portfolio management to outperform a benchmark.
problem Maximizing expected utility of outperformance over a benchmark with constraints.
method Uses α-Bregman-Wasserstein divergence to penalize underperformance more than overperformance. result Proves existence and uniqueness of optimal portfolio strategy and conditions for constraints binding.
We study the portfolio problem of maximizing the outperformance probability over a random benchmark through dynamic trading with a fixed initial capital. Under a general incomplete market framework, this stochastic control problem can be formulated as a composite pure hypothesis testing problem. We analyze the connecti…
Fundamental portfolio beats market portfolio under certain conditions.
problem Empirical evidence of fundamental portfolio outperformance.
method Theoretical foundation based on stock price reversion to fundamental values.
result Fundamental portfolio outperforms market portfolio under strong reversion conditions.
Simple model uses time series momentum to outperform benchmarks in equity and bond markets.
problem Finding systematic excess returns in various markets.
method Time series momentum applied to multiple investable indices without complex parameter estimation.
result Significant outperformance in equity and bond markets, nearly doubling returns.
Deep nearest neighbors outperform self-supervised methods in anomaly detection.
problem Anomaly detection using self-supervised deep methods.
method Simple nearest-neighbor approach on Imagenet pretrained features.
result Nearest-neighbor method outperforms self-supervised methods in accuracy, few shot generalization, training time, and noise robustness.
It has been widely observed that capitalization-weighted indexes can be beaten by surprisingly simple, systematic investment strategies. Indeed, in the U.S. stock market, equal-weighted portfolios, random-weighted portfolios, and other naive, non- optimized portfolios tend to outperform a capitalization-weighted index …
Machine learning models outperform traditional option pricing models.
problem Improving option pricing accuracy using complex models.
method Evaluation of machine learning (NN, RF, CatBoost) and traditional models (Black-Scholes, Heston) on synthetic and real data.
result Machine learning models outperform traditional models in predicting option prices.
AutoML frameworks outperform human data scientists on 7 out of 12 OpenML tasks.
problem Evaluating if AutoML can outperform human data scientists.
method Comparison of four AutoML frameworks on 12 popular OpenML datasets (6 supervised classification, 6 supervised regression).
result AutoML frameworks perform better or equal to human data scientists in 7 out of 12 tasks.
Classification outperforms regression in portfolio construction, yielding higher Sharpe ratios.
problem Determining which machine learning approach (classification vs. regression) is more effective for portfolio construction.
method Used stacking ensemble of gradient boosted tree, random forest, and neural network models.
result Classification yields higher Sharpe ratios and economically significant alphas compared to regression.
This paper uses UOT metrics for better dimensionality reduction and classification/clustering.
problem Improving dimensionality reduction and classification/clustering methods.
method Uses Hellinger--Kantorovich metric from unbalanced optimal transport (UOT).
result UOT outperforms Euclidean and OT-based methods in classification and clustering tasks.
Study proposes a neural network approach for high inflation investment portfolios with leverage constraints.
problem Optimizing investment portfolios with high inflation and bounded leverage constraints.
method Formulated an optimal control problem, established a closed-form solution, and developed a novel LFNN approach.
result The LFNN strategy outperforms a passive benchmark by about 200 bps with a high probability of success.
Search-based methods for hard combinatorial optimization are often guided by heuristics. Tuning heuristics in various conditions and situations is often time-consuming. In this paper, we propose NeuRewriter that learns a policy to pick heuristics and rewrite the local components of the current solution to iteratively i…
WSB community outperforms investment banks in stock picks.
problem Can WSB's community provide better investment advice than banks?
method Data-driven comparison of WSB and bank recommendations on S&P 500 stocks.
result WSB recommendations outperform banks in some cases and detect top stocks better.
This paper proposes asal, a new GAN based active learning method that generates high entropy samples. Instead of directly annotating the synthetic samples, ASAL searches similar samples from the pool and includes them for training. Hence, the quality of new samples is high and annotations are reliable. To the best of o…
We study k-SVD that is to obtain the first k singular vectors of a matrix A. Recently, a few breakthroughs have been discovered on k-SVD: Musco and Musco [1] proved the first gap-free convergence result using the block Krylov method, Shamir [2] discovered the first variance-reduction stochastic method, and Bhoj…
We analyze a negative-parameter variant of the diversity-weighted portfolio studied by Fernholz, Karatzas, and Kardaras (Finance Stoch 9(1):1-27, 2005), which invests in each company a fraction of wealth inversely proportional to the company's market weight (the ratio of its capitalization to that of the entire market)…
Paper proposes a method to learn and exceed expert demonstrations in unknown reward environments.
problem Learning to outperform expert demonstrations in unknown reward environments.
method A novel concurrent reward and action policy learning approach with a stereo utility definition.
result The proposed method can outperform expert demonstrations in various environments.
Optimal asset allocation strategy outperforms stochastic benchmark.
problem Achieving higher terminal wealth than a stochastic benchmark.
method Data-driven Neural Network optimization framework for dynamic asset allocation.
result Optimal adaptive strategy outperforms benchmark with higher median and right-skewed terminal wealth.
Enhanced Neural ODEs outperform traditional models in image classification and video prediction.
problem Efficiently modeling time-varying dynamics in neural networks.
method Proposed a novel family of non-autonomous Neural ODEs with time-varying weights.
result Outperformed previous Neural ODE variants in speed and representational capacity.
TabPFN model outperforms previous methods on tabular data.
problem Improving performance on tabular data regression and classification.
method Transformer-based deep learning model for approximate Bayesian inference.
result TabPFN outperforms previous methods on datasets with up to 10,000 samples.
Contrastive learning outperforms autoencoders and GANs in feature recovery and downstream tasks.
problem Theoretical understanding of contrastive learning's superiority in feature learning.
method Theoretical analysis of contrastive learning in linear representation settings.
result Contrastive learning outperforms autoencoders and GANs for feature recovery and in-domain downstream tasks.
Single tree outperforms random forest in testing accuracy.
problem The challenge of improving single decision tree performance.
method Gradient-based entire tree optimization framework, scaled sigmoid approximation, numerical stability algorithm, subtree polish strategy.
result Optimized single tree outperforms classic random forest by 2.03% on average.
Portfolio managers are typically constrained by turnover limits, minimum and maximum stock positions, cardinality, a target market capitalization and sometimes the need to hew to a style (such as growth or value). In addition, portfolio managers often use multifactor stock models to choose stocks based upon their respe…
Two entropy measures quantify suboptimal portfolio performance.
problem Measuring suboptimality in investment portfolios.
method Relative entropy (KL divergence) calculations.
result Suboptimal portfolios appear better than Kelly portfolios under certain measures.
Muon optimizer outperforms GD in neural networks.
problem Optimizing matrix-structured parameters in neural networks.
method Muon optimizer specifically designed for matrix parameters, analyzing convergence rate and low-rank Hessian structure.
result Muon can outperform Gradient Descent due to its ability to leverage the low-rank structure of Hessian matrices.
A new reward learning module improves imitation learning in high-dimensional environments.
problem Challenges in high-dimensional environments for imitation learning.
method Generative model to generate intrinsic reward signals.
result Our method outperforms state-of-the-art IRL methods on Atari games.
Galactica learns from scientific literature to help researchers.
problem Information overload in scientific literature makes it hard to find useful insights.
method Trained on a large corpus of scientific papers, reference material, and knowledge bases.
result Outperforms existing models on various scientific tasks, including LaTeX equations and mathematical reasoning.
In this paper we propose a novel application of Gaussian processes (GPs) to financial asset allocation. Our approach is deeply rooted in Stochastic Portfolio Theory (SPT), a stochastic analysis framework introduced by Robert Fernholz that aims at flexibly analysing the performance of certain investment strategies in st…
GRU models with Adam optimizer outperform other combinations in stock market forecasting.
problem Comparing optimization techniques for time series forecasting in LSTM and GRU networks.
method Examined Adam and Nesterov Accelerated Gradient (NAG) on LSTM and GRU models for stock market forecasting.
result GRU models with Adam optimizer produced the lowest RMSE and outperformed other combinations.
Rebellion Research's AI strategy outperformed the S&P 500 for 14 years.
problem Outperforming the S&P 500 for 14 years with AI.
method AI Global Equity strategy focused on machine learning.
result AI strategy has outperformed the S&P 500 for 14 years.
This paper describes an empirical study of shortfall optimization with Barra Extreme Risk. We compare minimum shortfall to minimum variance portfolios in the US, UK, and Japanese equity markets using Barra Style Factors (Value, Growth, Momentum, etc.). We show that minimizing shortfall generally improves performance ov…
Resampling outperforms reweighting for correcting biased data in machine learning models.
problem Correcting sampling bias in machine learning models trained on biased data sets.
method Compared resampling and reweighting techniques, focusing on their performance with stochastic gradient algorithms.
result Resampling outperforms reweighting when combined with stochastic gradient algorithms.
New deep learning method outperforms random training data.
problem Improving accuracy of deep learning algorithms in high dimensions.
method Training with low-discrepancy sequences instead of random data.
result Significantly outperforms standard deep learning algorithms.
New method learns robot skills from data, matching or outperforming existing methods.
problem Learning robot skills from fixed datasets.
method Offline Reinforcement Learning via Supervised Learning using implicit models.
result Implicit models can match or outperform explicit models in acquiring robotic skills.
RL agents outperform baselines in asset allocation.
problem Optimizing asset allocation using reinforcement learning.
method Model-free deep RL agents trained on real-world stock prices.
result RL agents significantly outperformed random and uniform allocation.
The NIG model outperforms others in pricing S&P 500 index options.
problem Analyzing and pricing S&P 500 index options with Lévy jumps.
method Parameter estimation using SSE method for various models (BS, SV, SVJ, non-IID, Lévy (GH, NIG, CGMY)).
result NIG model outperforms other models in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods.
New neural networks learn distribution functions using quantiles and moments.
problem Approximating functions of distributions in probability spaces.
method Quantile and moment neural networks, mixing quantile and moment features.
result Moment neural network outperforms others for bivariate distributions.
Wide neural networks can outperform kernel methods in certain tasks.
problem Understanding when neural networks outperform kernel methods in classification tasks.
method Analyzing the performance of wide neural networks and kernel methods on various tasks, considering the initialization of SGD and the structure of covariates.
result Wide neural networks can outperform kernel methods in tasks where covariates have a low-dimensional structure similar to the target function.
Deep ensembles outperform deep ensembles of Bayesian neural networks on in-distribution data.
problem Improving model calibration and uncertainty quantification in Bayesian Neural Networks.
method Systematic investigation of deep ensembles of Bayesian Neural Networks across various datasets and architectures.
result Deep ensembles consistently outperform deep ensembles of Bayesian neural networks on in-distribution data.
In this paper, we propose PCKID, a novel, robust, kernel function for spectral clustering, specifically designed to handle incomplete data. By combining posterior distributions of Gaussian Mixture Models for incomplete data on different scales, we are able to learn a kernel for incomplete data that does not depend on a…
Private adaptive methods improve on traditional SGD for convex optimization.
problem Differential privacy constraints in gradient optimization.
method Differentially private variants of SGD and AdaGrad with adaptive stepsizes and non-isotropic clipping.
result Private AdaGrad outperforms private SGD in high-dimensional problems.
New model considers varying costs in learning, outperforming existing methods.
problem Learning with varying costs in machine learning models.
method Introduces ε-frugal learning that considers both known and unknown costs.
result ε-frugal learners outperform learners with known costs and random sampling.
Improved contact tracing models outperform NIST challenge results.
problem Contact tracing using phone data and machine learning.
method Developed two machine learning models (GBM and MLP) from phone instrumental data features.
result Outperformed the leading NIST challenge result by HKUST.
Randomized classifiers outperform deterministic ones in robustness against adversarial attacks.
problem Ensuring optimal robustness against all adversarial attacks.
method Game-theoretic approach, focusing on the non-existence of Nash equilibrium in deterministic classifiers and demonstrating the superiority of randomized classifiers.
result Randomized classifiers can outperform deterministic ones in robustness against adversarial attacks.
New density estimator from Markov Chains outperforms KDE.
problem Density estimation from Markov Chains.
method Nonparametric density estimator based on Markov Chains.
result Consistent and outperforms KDE in large sample size and high dimensionality.
Combines Integrated Gradients and PatternAttribution into PGIG, outperforming alternatives.
problem Improving neural network explainability methods.
method Combines Integrated Gradients and PatternAttribution into Pattern-Guided Integrated Gradients (PGIG).
result PGIG outperforms other explainability methods in a large-scale image degradation experiment.
BERT models outperform GPT in financial engineering sentiment analysis.
problem Using sentiment from news events for commodity trading.
method Benchmarked Transformer models (BERT, GPT) on financial engineering task.
result CopBERT models outperform GPT and vanilla BERT models.
Investigate using LETFs to outperform benchmarks, finding them more likely to succeed.
problem The controversy and popularity of LETFs in constructing portfolios.
method Systematic investigation using IR-optimal strategies with LETFs and VETFs, including neural network-based approaches.
result IR-optimal strategies with LETFs outperform benchmarks and achieve partial stochastic dominance.