A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Entropy corrections improve GBM's predictive accuracy for non-log-normal distributions.
Researchers develop a generalised geometric Brownian motion for better asset pricing.
Bayesian GBMs improve predictive uncertainty calibration for tabular data.
Paper proposes a new financial fraud detection system using improved RF and GBM.
Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) is an extremely powerful supervised learning algorithm that is widely used in practice. GBM routinely features as a leading algorithm in machine learning competitions such as Kaggle and the KDDCup. In this work, we propose Accelerated Gradient Boosting Machine (AGBM) by incorporating Nes…
We have developed a statistical technique to test the model assumption of binary regime switching extension of the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) model by proposing a new discriminating statistics. Given a time series data, we have identified an admissible class of the regime switching candidate models for the statist…
GBM outperforms DL in credit scoring tasks, but performance depends on dataset.
New method corrects bias in feature importance measures of GBM.
Study finds GBM model accurately predicts stock prices on Ghana Stock Exchange.
A method interprets black-box models using an ensemble of gradient boosting machines.
Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) introduced by Friedman is a powerful supervised learning algorithm that is very widely used in practice---it routinely features as a leading algorithm in machine learning competitions such as Kaggle and the KDDCup. In spite of the usefulness of GBM in practice, our current theoretical un…
We find various exact solutions for a new stochastic volatility (SV) model: the transition probability density, European-style option values, and (when it exists) the martingale defect. This may represent the first example of an SV model combining exact solutions, GBM-type volatility noise, and a stationary volatility …
Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a key model for representing self-reproducing entities. Self-reproduction may be considered the definition of life [5], and the dynamics it induces are of interest to those concerned with living systems from biology to economics. Trajectories of GBM are distributed according to the we…
Study models illiquid stock prices and finds low correlation due to constant prices.
The study extends GBM to include stable nonzero prices and finds a pronounced potential well.
A new ensemble model uses simple hyper-rectangles to improve gradient boosting machine performance.
Study benchmarks cryptocurrency risk using GBM, revealing Lognormal limitations.
AGBoost uses attention weights to improve GBM for regression problems.
Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is a model for systems as varied as financial instruments and populations. The statistical properties of GBM are complicated by non-ergodicity, which can lead to ensemble averages exhibiting exponential growth while any individual trajectory collapses according to its time-average. A com…
Smartwatches are increasingly being used to recognize human daily life activities. These devices may employ different kind of machine learning (ML) solutions. One of such ML models is Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) which has shown an excellent performance in the literature. The GBM can be trained on available data set…
Improved contact tracing models outperform NIST challenge results.
HypeGBMS clusters data in hyperbolic space, overcoming Euclidean limitations.
We study how resetting affects geometric Brownian motion, showing it becomes stationary but remains non-ergodic.
We propose a simple non-equilibrium model of a financial market as an open system with a possible exchange of money with an outside world and market frictions (trade impacts) incorporated into asset price dynamics via a feedback mechanism. Using a linear market impact model, this produces a non-linear two-parametric ex…
Study shows physical drift affects put-call parity enforcement, not just option payoffs.
Overview of SML techniques with banking applications.
We consider a limit order book, where buyers and sellers register to trade a security at specific prices. The largest price buyers on the book are willing to offer is called the market bid price, and the smallest price sellers on the book are willing to accept is called the market ask price. Market ask price is always …
To convert standard Brownian motion into a positive process, Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is widely used. We generalize this positive process by introducing an asymmetry parameter which describes the instantaneous volatility whenever the process reaches a new low. For our new process, …
This paper studies the risk-adjusted optimal timing to liquidate an option at the prevailing market price. In addition to maximizing the expected discounted return from option sale, we incorporate a path-dependent risk penalty based on shortfall or quadratic variation of the option price up to the liquidation time. We …
The multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis technique is employed to analyze the time series of gold consumer price index (CPI) and the market trend of three world's highest gold consuming countries, namely China, India and Turkey for the period: 1993-July 2013. Various multifractal variables, such as the generaliz…
New methods improve tree ensemble models by compressing them while maintaining accuracy.
This work extends Tweedie's formulae to non-Gaussian processes for better diffusion model generation.
The geometric Lévy model (GLM) is a natural generalisation of the geometric Brownian motion model (GBM) used in the derivation of the Black-Scholes formula. The theory of such models simplifies considerably if one takes a pricing kernel approach. In one dimension, once the underlying Lévy process has been specified, th…
Unified comparison of gradient boosting algorithms for insurance claims.
New methods for quantifying insurance claim cost uncertainty using LightGBM and GLMs.
Study optimal portfolio strategy with sporadic bankruptcy for isoelastic utility.
Advertisement (abbreviated ad) options are a recent development in online advertising. Simply, an ad option is a first look contract in which a publisher or search engine grants an advertiser a right but not obligation to enter into transactions to purchase impressions or clicks from a specific ad slot at a pre-specifi…
This paper includes a proof of well-posedness of an initial-boundary value problem involving a system of degenerate non-local parabolic PDE which naturally arises in the study of derivative pricing in a generalized market model. In a semi-Markov modulated GBM model the locally risk minimizing price function satisfies a…
Accurate and reliable forecasting of total cloud cover (TCC) is vital for many areas such as astronomy, energy demand and production, or agriculture. Most meteorological centres issue ensemble forecasts of TCC, however, these forecasts are often uncalibrated and exhibit worse forecast skill than ensemble forecasts of o…
PGBM creates probabilistic predictions efficiently.
Federated machine learning systems have been widely used to facilitate the joint data analytics across the distributed datasets owned by the different parties that do not trust each others. In this paper, we proposed a novel Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM) framework SecureGBM built-up with a multi-party computation mo…
We study the problem of dynamically trading futures in a regime-switching market. Modeling the underlying asset price as a Markov-modulated diffusion process, we present a utility maximization approach to determine the optimal futures trading strategy. This leads to the analysis of the associated system of Hamilton-Jac…
In this paper, the use of the Generalized Beta Mixture (GBM) and Horseshoe distributions as priors in the Bayesian Compressive Sensing framework is proposed. The distributions are considered in a two-layer hierarchical model, making the corresponding inference problem amenable to Expectation Maximization (EM). We prese…
New algorithms improve uncertainty estimation in satellite precipitation predictions.
Study compares machine learning models for insurance pricing, including neural networks and GLMs.
Quantum algorithms speed up derivative pricing beyond Black-Scholes models.
We consider the problem of computing the Credit Value Adjustment ({CVA}) of a European option in presence of the Wrong Way Risk ({WWR}) in a default intensity setting. Namely we model the asset price evolution as solution to a linear equation that might depend on different stochastic factors and we provide an approxima…
This paper explores alternative regression techniques in pricing American put options and compares to the least-squares method (LSM) in Monte Carlo implemented by Longstaff-Schwartz, 2001 which uses least squares to estimate the conditional expected payoff to the option holder from continuation. The pricing is done und…