Low-frequency historical data, high-frequency historical data and option data are three major sources, which can be used to forecast the underlying security's volatility. In this paper, we propose two econometric models, which integrate three information sources. In GARCH-Itô-OI model, we assume that the option-implied…
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48 results for “Option-implied volatility”
This paper provides a neural approach to represent option implied information.
problem Link between implied density and volatility for arbitrage-free modeling.
method Minimalist perspective on implied volatility, neural representation with arbitrage constraints.
result Shallow feedforward network with a single hidden layer effectively approximates implied density and volatility.
Currency volatility shocks predict lower excess returns, and buying weak transmitters outperforms selling strong ones.
problem Predicting currency returns using volatility shocks.
method Constructed a dynamic, directed network of volatility connections using option-implied volatilities.
result Currencies that transmit more volatility shocks earn lower excess returns.
Study uses sentiment analysis to predict implied volatility surface, improving prediction accuracy.
problem Improving prediction accuracy of implied volatility surface.
method Constructed daily high-frequency sentiment data, used VAR method, deep learning (BERT, LSTM), FFT, EMD for sentiment decomposition.
result High-frequency sentiment correlates with ATM options' implied volatility, low-frequency with DOTM options.
New FX option interpolations impact implied volatilities.
problem Different interpolations of FX option quotes lead to varying implied volatilities.
method Analysis of various exact interpolations of broker quotes.
result Different interpolations result in different implied volatilities.
Investigates portfolio selection with transaction costs and stochastic volatility, using deep learning for computation.
problem Optimal portfolio selection with transaction costs and stochastic volatility.
method Two-factor stochastic volatility model, option-implied utility function, deep learning policy iteration.
result Deep learning method effectively computes optimal investment decisions under transaction costs and stochastic volatility.
Study reveals a hidden cost in derivatives markets through option-implied discount factors.
problem The hidden cost in derivatives markets, not visible in price space.
method Minute-level NBBO data on options, reduced-form specification linking carry gap to implementation risk, trading frictions, and financial conditions.
result An annualized carry gap exists, linked to implementation risk and financial conditions.
The paper assesses how equity tail risk impacts US Treasury bond returns.
problem The effects of equity tail risk on the US government bond market.
method Estimating equity tail risk using option-implied stock market volatility and assessing its predictive power in reduced-form regressions and a term structure model.
result Equity tail risk significantly predicts one-month excess returns on Treasuries.
We create precise formulas for VIX option implied volatility.
problem Calibrating VIX option prices in forward variance models.
method Developed closed-form expansions using weak-approximation techniques.
result Explicit formulas for implied volatility with computable correction terms.
This study compares SPX and VIX options and quantifies their relationship.
problem Understanding the relationship between SPX and VIX options markets.
method Uses moment formulas in a model-free approach to compare implied volatilities.
result SPX options reflect the extreme-strike asymptotics of VIX options and vice versa.
Machine learning reveals inventory effects on VSTOXX futures pricing.
problem Understanding how inventory affects VSTOXX futures pricing.
method Combining stochastic processes and machine learning, we formulate and calibrate a Heston model for VSTOXX futures pricing.
result Machine learning models show that inventory significantly impacts VSTOXX futures prices.
Proposes deep hedging for index options using implied volatility surface.
problem Managing risk in index option portfolios with complex dynamics.
method Integrates surface-informed decisions with multiple hedging instruments, accounting for transaction costs and variance risk premium.
result Consistently outperforms traditional hedging strategies across various market conditions.
Proposes a method to construct risk-neutral marginals from arbitrage-free option prices.
problem Lack of risk-neutral marginals that are free of arbitrage and easy to use.
method Explicit construction of risk-neutral marginals from discrete arbitrage-free option prices.
result Explicit construction guarantees risk-neutral marginals free of butterfly and calendar arbitrage.
This paper investigates how the conditional quantiles of future returns and volatility of financial assets vary with various measures of ex-post variation in asset prices as well as option-implied volatility. We work in the flexible quantile regression framework and rely on recently developed model-free measures of int…
This paper improves VAE-based imputation of FX implied volatilities, reducing errors and handling uncertainty.
problem Imputing missing implied volatilities for FX options.
method Modified VAE architecture and handling uncertainty.
result Significant performance improvements, nearly halving error in low missingness regimes.
This paper investigates how realized and option implied volatilities are related to the future quantiles of commodity returns. Whereas realized volatility measures ex-post uncertainty, volatility implied by option prices reveals the market's expectation and is often used as an ex-ante measure of the investor sentiment.…
New machine learning model identifies key drivers of market troughs.
problem Misrepresentation of market trough drivers by simpler models.
method Flexible DML average partial effect causal machine learning framework.
result Volatility of options-implied risk appetite and market liquidity are key drivers.
In this paper we study the continuum time dynamics of a stock in a market where agents behavior is modeled by a Minority Game and a Grand Canonical Minority Game. The dynamics derived is a generalized geometric Brownian motion; from the Black & Scholes formula the calibration of both the Minority Game and the Grand Can…
Machine learning approximates implied volatility and dividend yield for American options.
problem Challenges in extracting implied information from American options due to computational costs.
method Employing a data-driven machine learning approach, specifically a Calibration Neural Network (CaNN), to estimate implied volatility and dividend yield efficiently.
result Machine learning can be used to estimate implied volatility and dividend yield for American options efficiently.
A new model for S&P 500 and VIX options pricing and calibration.
problem Calibrating and pricing S&P 500 and VIX options with a 4-factor path-dependent volatility model.
method Pathwise neural network approximation of VIX, leveraging Markovianity of the 4-factor model.
result The model accurately fits S&P 500 implied volatilities and reproduces VIX option smiles.
This paper revisits the fractional cointegrating relationship between ex-ante implied volatility and ex-post realized volatility. We argue that the concept of corridor implied volatility (CIV) should be used instead of the popular model-free option-implied volatility (MFIV) when assessing the fractional cointegrating r…
A Market Model for VIX Futuresq-fin.MF
A new modelling approach that directly prescribes dynamics to the term structure of VIX futures is proposed in this paper. The approach is motivated by the tractability enjoyed by models that directly prescribe dynamics to the VIX, practices observed in interest-rate modelling, and the desire to develop a platform to b…
Paper proposes a method to robustly estimate volatility from OTM options.
problem Accurately measuring volatility in real-world markets with limited option trading.
method Constructs an arbitrage-free continuous option pricing function from bid-ask spreads of OTM options.
result Robustly calculates volatility indices with theoretical consistency, even in low-liquidity markets.
New model predicts implied volatility using past asset price paths.
problem Forecasting implied volatility surfaces and asset prices.
method Proposes a new model using past asset price trajectories to predict implied volatility.
result Large part of implied volatility movements can be explained by past returns and squares.
iCOS: Option-Implied COS Methodq-fin.ST
iCOS method estimates risk-neutral densities and option prices without model assumptions.
problem Estimating risk-neutral densities and option prices without model assumptions.
method Leverages Fourier-cosine technique using option-implied cosine series coefficients, without model assumptions.
result Effective in extracting information from option prices under various market conditions.
Forward-looking portfolio selection with multivariate non-Gaussian models and the Esscher transformq-fin.PM
In this study we suggest a portfolio selection framework based on option-implied information and multivariate non-Gaussian models. The proposed models incorporate skewness, kurtosis and more complex dependence structures among stocks log-returns than the simple correlation matrix. The two models considered are a multiv…
A RL framework for hedging equity index options with realistic costs.
problem Dynamic hedging of equity index option exposures under transaction costs.
method Reinforcement Learning (RL) with a leak-free environment, cost-aware reward function, and stochastic actor-critic agent.
result The RL policy improves risk-adjusted performance compared to no-hedge, momentum, and volatility-targeting baselines.
A new method detects and corrects outliers using optimal transport.
problem Outliers in data can skew estimation results, leading to inaccurate conclusions.
method Optimal transport with a concave cost function for outlier detection and correction.
result The method effectively identifies and corrects outliers, improving estimation accuracy.
Paper defines conditions for feasible correlation matrices from factor structures.
problem Feasibility of option implied correlation matrices in non-FX markets.
method Quantitative and economic approaches to solve the nearest correlation matrix problem.
result Introduces methods to ensure feasible correlation matrices from factor structures.
Unified framework matches equity and bond yields.
problem Inconsistency in pricing zero-coupon bonds and equity markets.
method Unified term structure of interest rates framework using put-call parity.
result Option-implied yield curves closely match treasury par yield curves.
The paper develops bounds for multi-asset derivatives using option prices.
problem Computing model-free upper and lower bounds for multi-asset derivatives.
method Develops a fundamental theorem of asset pricing and superhedging duality, recasting the problem into a linear semi-infinite optimization problem and providing algorithms for exact computation.
result Provides -optimal upper and lower bounds for multi-asset derivatives, characterizing optimal pricing measures.
We derive a general multivariate theory for realised characteristics of `model-free discretisation-invariant swaps', so-called because the standard no-arbitrage assumption of martingale forward prices is sufficient to derive fair-value swap rates for such characteristics which have no jump or discretisation errors. Thi…
Do Prediction Markets Match Option Prices? Bitcoin Threshold Evidence from Binance and Polymarketq-fin.TR
Prediction markets and crypto options show persistent pricing gaps.
problem Comparing prediction markets and crypto options for identical payoffs.
method Comparing Polymarket Yes prices with Binance call option prices.
result Mean pricing gap of 5.6 percentage points across 214 hourly observations.
Study shows physical drift affects put-call parity enforcement, not just option payoffs.
problem Inconsistency between quoted put-call parity and actual market behavior.
method Examined SPX and RUT index options, used drift-preserving GBM term to improve fit.
result Physical drift enters the enforcement of risk-neutral parity, not just option payoffs.
Exact relationships found between ATM slope, volatility swap, and zero vanna.
problem Understanding relationships between implied volatilities and swaps.
method Analyzes exact relationships between ATM slope, volatility swap, and zero vanna.
result Exact relationships between ATM slope, volatility swap, and zero vanna.
Study local volatility from rough volatility models, finding new skew rule.
problem Understanding local volatility from rough volatility models.
method Analyzing asymptotic behavior of local volatility surface generated by rough stochastic volatility models.
result New skew rule: ratio of implied and local vol skews tends to 1/(H + 3/2).
On options-driven realized volatility forecasting: Information gains via rough volatility modelq-fin.RM
Enhanced volatility forecasting using options data and rough volatility model.
problem Improving realized volatility forecasting accuracy.
method Infer spot volatility from options data using rough stochastic volatility model, accelerate estimation with deep learning, benchmark against traditional models.
result Augmented HAR-RV-RHeston model outperforms traditional models in daily and long-term forecasting.
We consider an asset whose risk-neutral dynamics are described by a general class of local-stochastic volatility models and derive a family of asymptotic expansions for European-style option prices and implied volatilities. Our implied volatility expansions are explicit; they do not require any special functions nor do…
Volatility has to be roughq-fin.MF
Volatility models must be rough to match market skew.
problem Inconsistent non-rough volatility models with power law volatility skew.
method Asymptotic expansion and continuous price dynamics analysis.
result Volatility must be rough to align with market skew.
Study on estimating volatility of volatility using Fourier methods and provides insights into volatility dynamics.
problem Estimating the volatility of volatility (vol-of-vol) accurately and efficiently.
method Used Fourier methodology to estimate integrated volatility of volatility, bias-corrected and without bias-correction, comparing their asymptotic properties and accuracy.
result The bias-corrected estimator reaches the optimal rate , while the uncorrected estimator has a slower rate and smaller asymptotic variance.
Extends Heston model with local volatility for better fit to market volatilities.
problem Fitting stochastic volatility models to market volatilities.
method Adds local volatility term to rough-Heston model, preserving stylized results.
result Provides a proper extrapolation scheme for calibration.
The paper values perpetual callable American volatility options using a mean-reverting volatility model.
problem Valuation of callable American volatility put options.
method Modeling volatility dynamics as a mean-reverting 3/2 process and proposing a pricing formula.
result The value of perpetual callable American volatility put options is discussed under given conditions.
The stochastic volatility model is one of volatility models which infer latent volatility of asset returns. The Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model is performed by the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm which is superior to other Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in sampling volatility variables. …
In this paper, Malliavin calculus is applied to arrive at exact formulas for the difference between the volatility swap strike and the zero vanna implied volatility for volatilities driven by fractional noise. To the best of our knowledge, our estimate is the first to derive the rigorous relationship between the zero v…
Develops a martingale expansion for stochastic volatility models.
problem Approximating marginal distributions of stochastic volatility models.
method Martingale expansion framework for continuous stochastic volatility models.
result First-order perturbation expansions for small volatility-of-volatility and fast mean-reversion models.
Study large deviations in fractional volatility models with non-Gaussian volatility.
problem Large deviations in fractional volatility models with non-Gaussian volatility.
method Established a small-noise large deviation principle for log-price.
result Logarithmic call price asymptotics for large strikes in a special case.
Estimates volatility of volatility and leverage effect using high-frequency options data.
problem Estimating volatility of volatility and leverage effect from high-frequency options data.
method Model-free estimators using characteristic function of price increments and spot volatility.
result Developed feasible inference methods for estimating volatility of volatility and leverage effect.
This study compares three volatility metrics for Bitcoin, highlighting high expected volatility.
problem Understanding Bitcoin's volatility in financial markets.
method Historical volatility, forecasted volatility (GARCH models), and implied volatility (from options market).
result High expected volatility across all methodologies, especially implied volatility.