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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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22446587 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Neyman regret

Adaptive designs achieve strong Neyman regret guarantees for ATE estimation.

problem Estimating unbiased average treatment effect in sequential experiments.
method Proposed adaptive designs with O~(logT)\widetilde{O}(\log T) Neyman regret under boundedness assumptions and O~(T)\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{T}) multigroup Neyman regret in covariate-based settings.
result Adaptive designs outperform non-adaptive designs in terms of Neyman regret, especially in covariate-based settings.

Optimal adaptive experiment for choosing best treatment with binary outcomes.

problem Choosing the best treatment from binary options in an adaptive experiment.
method Adaptive experiment with two phases: treatment allocation and choice. Neyman allocation method used.
result Neyman allocation is minimax and Bayes optimal, matching lower bounds for regret.

Neyman-Scott is a classic example of an estimation problem with a partially-consistent posterior, for which standard estimation methods tend to produce inconsistent results. Past attempts to create consistent estimators for Neyman-Scott have led to ad-hoc solutions, to estimators that do not satisfy representation inva…

2017-07-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Neyman's framework evaluates personalized treatment rules using experiments.

problem Evaluating the efficacy of individualized treatment rules derived by machine learning.
method Neyman's repeated sampling framework applied to cross-fitted ITRs.
result Ex-post evaluation of ITRs can be more efficient than random assignment.

A deep Neyman-Scott process uses Poisson processes for efficient inference in complex point processes.

problem Efficient inference in complex hierarchical point processes.
method Developed an efficient posterior sampling via Markov chain Monte Carlo for likelihood-based inference.
result More hidden Poisson processes improve likelihood fitting and event prediction.

Optimal strategy found for identifying best arm in bandits with small gap.

problem Best arm identification in two-armed bandits with a fixed budget and small gap.
method Neyman allocation rule augmented with inverse probability weighting.
result Proposed strategy is asymptotically optimal when gap is small.

This guide simplifies high-probability regret bounds in empirical risk minimization.

problem High-probability regret bounds in empirical risk minimization.
method Modular presentation, three-step recipe, localized Rademacher complexity, local maximal inequalities, metric-entropy integrals.
result Recover familiar rates for various function classes and derive regret bounds for nuisance components.

Develops a direct debiased machine learning framework using Bregman divergence.

problem Reduces bias in machine learning estimates of causal effects or structural models.
method Neyman targeted estimation and generalized Riesz regression using Bregman divergence.
result Improves estimation of parameters of interest in causal models.

Adapts Neyman-Pearson classification for both source and target distribution shifts.

problem Minimizing errors while controlling both Type-I and Type-II errors under distribution shifts.
method Derives an adaptive procedure that guarantees improved error rates and adapts to uninformative sources.
result Automatic adaptation to uninformative sources avoids negative transfer.

Combines cost-sensitive and Neyman-Pearson paradigms for better binary classification.

problem Asymmetric binary classification problems with unequal error severities.
method Develops TUBE-CS algorithm to bridge cost-sensitive and Neyman-Pearson paradigms.
result High-probability control of population type I error.

Develops variational inference for Neyman-Scott processes for faster sampling.

problem Slow mixing time in MCMC for posterior sampling in Neyman-Scott processes.
method Variational inference algorithm for Neyman-Scott processes, minimizing KL divergence.
result Achieves better prediction performance than MCMC with limited computational time.

Novel connections between Neyman-Scott processes and Bayesian nonparametric mixture models enable scalable inference.

problem Efficiently modeling and detecting clusters in spatiotemporal data.
method Adapting collapsed Gibbs sampling for Neyman-Scott processes via connections to mixture of finite mixture models.
result Demonstrated scalability and effectiveness on neural spike trains and document streams.

Proposes a method to correct for covariate shift in meta-analysis of randomized trials.

problem Invalidation of standard IPD meta-analysis due to covariate shift across studies.
method Placebo-anchored transport framework that treats source-trial outcomes as proxy signals and target-trial placebo outcomes as gold labels.
result Yields target-identified effect estimates in connected targets and a principled screen--then--transport procedure in disconnected targets.

Characterizes distribution-free rates in unbalanced classification problems.

problem Minimizing error under two different distributions in unbalanced settings.
method Characterizes minimax rates over all pairs of distributions using a geometric condition.
result Identifies a dichotomy between hard and easy classes based on a three-points-separation condition.

The paper argues for using Neyman orthogonal score for balancing in debiased machine learning.

problem Debiased machine learning requires a proper approach to balance covariates.
method The paper advocates for using Riesz regression with basis functions of X for balancing.
result Covariate balancing is only valid when the score-relevant regression error is a function of covariates alone.

New convergence guarantees for learning with unknown nuisance parameters.

problem Learning problems with unknown nuisance parameters.
method Stochastic gradient optimization with Neyman orthogonality and approximately orthogonalized updates.
result Stochastic gradient algorithms can converge under conditions of nuisance parameters.

The paper tackles Neyman-Pearson classification control issues.

problem Neyman-Pearson classification's control constraint is hard to satisfy in finite samples.
method Developed refined learning procedures under two accuracy control strategies.
result Proposed methods achieve desired control levels in finite samples.

Unified framework for Bayes-optimal classifiers under group fairness.

problem Mitigating disparate impacts from algorithmic predictions in high-stakes decision-making.
method Unified framework based on Neyman-Pearson argument for deriving Bayes-optimal classifiers under group fairness constraints.
result Proposes FairBayes method that directly controls disparity and achieves optimal fairness-accuracy tradeoff.

Develops NPMC method for noisy labels, improving multiclass classification accuracy.

problem Asymmetric misclassification costs and label noise in multiclass classification.
method Empirical likelihood approach using exponential tilting density ratio model.
result Root n consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for clean labels and noise mechanism.

Develops algorithms for multi-class Neyman-Pearson classification with cost sensitivity.

problem Asymmetric misclassification costs in multi-class classification problems.
method Establishes connection with cost-sensitive learning, proposes two algorithms, extends NP oracle properties.
result Proposes algorithms with theoretical guarantees for multi-class Neyman-Pearson classification.

Most existing binary classification methods target on the optimization of the overall classification risk and may fail to serve some real-world applications such as cancer diagnosis, where users are more concerned with the risk of misclassifying one specific class than the other. Neyman-Pearson (NP) paradigm was introd…

2015-08-13abs ↗pdf ↗

In recent years, constrained optimization has become increasingly relevant to the machine learning community, with applications including Neyman-Pearson classification, robust optimization, and fair machine learning. A natural approach to constrained optimization is to optimize the Lagrangian, but this is not guarantee…

2018-04-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Unified framework for debiased machine learning using Riesz representer and Bregman divergence.

problem Estimating causal and structural parameters in machine learning.
method Generalized Riesz regression for fitting Riesz representer via Bregman divergence minimization.
result Automatic covariate balancing and Neyman orthogonality properties for debiased estimation.

A neural network for online NP classification with reduced complexity.

problem Online nonlinear Neyman-Pearson classification.
method Single hidden layer feedforward neural network (SLFN) initialized with random Fourier features (RFFs). Uses stochastic gradient descent for sequential learning.
result Expedited online adaptation and powerful nonlinear Neyman-Pearson modeling.

Chernozhukov, Chetverikov, Demirer, Duflo, Hansen, and Newey (2016) provide a generic double/de-biased machine learning (DML) approach for obtaining valid inferential statements about focal parameters, using Neyman-orthogonal scores and cross-fitting, in settings where nuisance parameters are estimated using a new gene…

2017-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Motivated by problems of anomaly detection, this paper implements the Neyman-Pearson paradigm to deal with asymmetric errors in binary classification with a convex loss. Given a finite collection of classifiers, we combine them and obtain a new classifier that satisfies simultaneously the two following properties with …

2011-02-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper introduces GDR-learners for estimating potential outcomes from observational data.

problem Lack of theoretical property of general Neyman-orthogonality in deep generative models.
method Develops flexible GDR-learners based on various deep generative models.
result GDR-learners possess quasi-oracle efficiency and rate double robustness, asymptotically optimal.

Optimal selective classification using likelihood ratios improves model reliability.

problem Enhancing predictive model reliability by allowing uncertain predictions.
method Neyman--Pearson lemma applied to likelihood ratios for optimal selection.
result Neyman--Pearson-informed methods outperform existing baselines under covariate shifts.

In the problem of domain adaptation for binary classification, the learner is presented with labeled examples from a source domain, and must correctly classify unlabeled examples from a target domain, which may differ from the source. Previous work on this problem has assumed that the performance measure of interest is…

2018-10-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Strict Minimum Message Length (SMML) is an information-theoretic statistical inference method widely cited (but only with informal arguments) as providing estimations that are consistent for general estimation problems. It is, however, almost invariably intractable to compute, for which reason only approximations of it…

2016-10-14abs ↗pdf ↗

New method for clustering tasks with heterogeneous data.

problem Clustered multitask learning with semiparametric and heterogeneous nuisances.
method Adaptive fused orthogonal estimator with Neyman-orthogonal losses and data-driven fusion penalties.
result Achieves exact clustering recovery and pooled parametric convergence rates.

The paper develops methods for causal function estimation and inference with multiway clustered data.

problem Estimation and inference for causal functions under multiway clustering.
method Two-step procedure using machine learning for nuisance parameters and projection onto basis functions.
result Rejects the null hypothesis of uniformly zero effects and reveals heterogeneous treatment effects.

ScoreMatchingRiesz improves debiased machine learning and policy effects estimation.

problem Improving debiased machine learning and policy effects estimation.
method Score matching and Riesz representer estimation.
result Estimates policy path for continuous treatments, improving interpretability.

Proposes a Bayesian framework for causal inference without explicit likelihood modeling.

problem Challenges in principled Bayesian inference for causal effects.
method Generalized Bayesian framework that places priors directly on causal estimands and updates using identification-driven loss functions.
result Yields generalized posteriors for causal effects with uncertainty quantification.

Robust hypothesis testing designs a test for worst-case distributions using kernel methods.

problem Design a robust test for hypothesis testing under uncertainty sets.
method Data-driven uncertainty sets constructed using kernel mean embeddings and maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). Bayesian and Neyman-Pearson settings investigated.
result Proposed robust kernel tests are exponentially consistent and asymptotically optimal.

Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) are popular risk measures from academic, industrial and regulatory perspectives. The problem of minimizing CVaR is theoretically known to be of Neyman-Pearson type binary solution. We add a constraint on expected return to investigate the Mean-CVaR portfolio sele…

2013-08-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Meta-learner estimates heterogeneous DiD effects robustly.

problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data with DiD.
method Doubly robust meta-learner for CATT, using convex risk minimization and auxiliary models.
result Superior performance over existing methods in empirical tests.

Estimates treatment effects in randomized experiments with non-compliance.

problem Estimating distributional treatment effects in experiments with imperfect compliance.
method Proposes a regression-adjusted estimator based on distribution regression with Neyman-orthogonal moment conditions.
result Achieves semiparametric efficiency bound and demonstrates favorable performance in simulations and real data.