Framework predicts events from longitudinal and time-to-event data using MGCP and Cox model.
problem Predicting events from mixed longitudinal and time-to-event data.
method Uses multivariate Gaussian convolution process (MGCP) and Cox model for joint modeling. Implements variational inference to estimate parameters.
result Framework outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in synthetic and real-world data.
In this paper we cast the well-known convolutional neural network in a Gaussian process perspective. In this way we hope to gain additional insights into the performance of convolutional networks, in particular understand under what circumstances they tend to perform well and what assumptions are implicitly made in the…
This paper removes the finite variance assumption for deep convolutional neural networks.
problem Removing the finite variance assumption for deep convolutional neural networks.
method Assuming iid parameters distributed according to a stable distribution, the paper shows that the infinite-channel limit of a deep feed-forward convolutional neural network is a multivariate stable stochastic process.
result The infinite-channel limit of a deep feed-forward convolutional neural network, under suitable scaling, is a multivariate stable stochastic process.
Recently there has been an increasing interest in the multivariate Gaussian process (MGP) which extends the Gaussian process (GP) to deal with multiple outputs. One approach to construct the MGP and account for non-trivial commonalities amongst outputs employs a convolution process (CP). The CP is based on the idea of …
This paper presents a new model called infinite mixtures of multivariate Gaussian processes, which can be used to learn vector-valued functions and applied to multitask learning. As an extension of the single multivariate Gaussian process, the mixture model has the advantages of modeling multimodal data and alleviating…
We propose a family of multivariate Gaussian process models for correlated outputs, based on assuming that the likelihood function takes the generic form of the multivariate exponential family distribution (EFD). We denote this model as a multivariate generalized Gaussian process model, and derive Taylor and Laplace al…
We propose deep convolutional Gaussian processes, a deep Gaussian process architecture with convolutional structure. The model is a principled Bayesian framework for detecting hierarchical combinations of local features for image classification. We demonstrate greatly improved image classification performance compared …
Graph Convolutional Gaussian Processes predict missing links.
problem Link prediction in large graphs.
method Simplified graph convolutions and variational inducing point method.
result Consistent improvements over existing models and competitive performance.
Graph convolutional Gaussian processes learn functions on graphs.
problem Learning translation-invariant relationships on non-Euclidean domains.
method Bayesian nonparametric method using graph convolutional neural networks.
result Graph convolutional Gaussian processes outperform existing methods on images and triangular meshes.
Proposes a model for predicting events from event streams.
problem Predicting events like part replacement and failure in manufacturing and teleservice systems.
method Non-parametric prognostic framework using MGCP modulated Poisson processes.
result MGCP prior facilitates sharing of information and analysis of flexible event patterns.
The paper introduces a non-linear version of the process convolution formalism for building covariance functions for multi-output Gaussian processes. The non-linearity is introduced via Volterra series, one series per each output. We provide closed-form expressions for the mean function and the covariance function of t…
Study improves forecasting in betting markets using novel neural networks.
problem Improving short-term price movement predictions in betting exchanges.
method Innovative convolutional attention mechanisms applied to recurrent neural networks and bi-dimensional layers.
result All proposed innovations positively impact classification task performance.
We unify and extend a number of approaches related to constructing multivariate Variance-Gamma (V.G.) models for option pricing. An overarching model is derived by subordinating multivariate Brownian motion to a subordinator from the Thorin (1977) class of generalised Gamma convolution subordinators. A class of models …
New framework models complex spatial data with basis functions and graphical vectors.
problem Modeling highly-multivariate spatial processes with varying resolutions.
method Extends graphical lasso to multivariate Gaussian processes with independent graphical vectors at different resolutions, using an orthogonal basis and fusion penalty.
result Linear complexity and parsimonious conditional independence structure in multilevel graphical model.
This tutorial simplifies Gaussian process regression for beginners.
problem Understanding Gaussian process regression for machine learning.
method Explains basic concepts, provides a concise GPR description, and reviews implementation packages.
result Clear understanding of Gaussian process regression fundamentals.
We introduce a new regression framework, Gaussian process regression networks (GPRN), which combines the structural properties of Bayesian neural networks with the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian processes. This model accommodates input dependent signal and noise correlations between multiple response variables,…
Large deviation principles for multivariate stochastic volatility models.
problem Understanding the behavior of log-processes in multivariate stochastic volatility models.
method Establishing a comprehensive sample path large deviation principle for log-processes.
result Asymptotic formulas for first exit times and barrier option prices derived from the LDP.
Many probabilistic models introduce strong dependencies between variables using a latent multivariate Gaussian distribution or a Gaussian process. We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for performing inference in models with multivariate Gaussian priors. Its key properties are: 1) it has simple, generic c…
We present a practical way of introducing convolutional structure into Gaussian processes, making them more suited to high-dimensional inputs like images. The main contribution of our work is the construction of an inter-domain inducing point approximation that is well-tailored to the convolutional kernel. This allows …
Gaussian process model for vector-valued function has been shown to be useful for multi-output prediction. The existing method for this model is to re-formulate the matrix-variate Gaussian distribution as a multivariate normal distribution. Although it is effective in many cases, re-formulation is not always workable a…
We generalize the log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) framework to model multiple correlated point data jointly. The observations are treated as realizations of multiple LGCPs, whose log intensities are given by linear combinations of latent functions drawn from Gaussian process priors. The combination coefficients are als…
Researchers derive an explicit Laplace transform for integrated Volterra Wishart process.
problem Modeling and pricing financial instruments with complex covariance structures.
method Explicit expression for conditional Laplace transform of integrated Volterra Wishart process, linking to matrix Riccati equations.
result Derivation of Laplace transform for a special case of convolution kernel, leading to efficient pricing methods.
Proposes a new model for EHR data using time-dependent Gaussian processes.
problem Joint modeling of multiple clinical variables over time.
method Multivariate nonstationary Gaussian processes with time-varying parameters and posterior inference via HMC.
result The proposed model outperforms stationary models and reveals latent correlations predictive of patient risk.
We present a non-parametric Bayesian latent variable model capable of learning dependency structures across dimensions in a multivariate setting. Our approach is based on flexible Gaussian process priors for the generative mappings and interchangeable Dirichlet process priors to learn the structure. The introduction of…
This article is concerned with Gaussian process quadratures, which are numerical integration methods based on Gaussian process regression methods, and sigma-point methods, which are used in advanced non-linear Kalman filtering and smoothing algorithms. We show that many sigma-point methods can be interpreted as Gaussia…
We tackle the problem of multi-task learning with copula process. Multivariable prediction in spatial and spatial-temporal processes such as natural resource estimation and pollution monitoring have been typically addressed using techniques based on Gaussian processes and co-Kriging. While the Gaussian prior assumption…
Model for inferring multivariate functions from areal data.
problem Inferring multivariate functions from areal data with varying granularities.
method Probabilistic model using Gaussian processes with spatial aggregation.
result Model effectively estimates spatial correlations and dependencies between areal data sets.
New method for estimating functional Gaussian graphical models for multivariate data.
problem Challenges in extending Gaussian graphical models to multivariate functional data due to compact covariance operators.
method Introducing partial separability for multivariate functional data, leading to a novel Karhunen-Loève expansion and efficient estimation through the joint graphical lasso.
result A well-defined functional Gaussian graphical model that can be identified with a sequence of finite-dimensional graphical models, each of identical fixed dimension.
We derive Gaussian approximations for random forest predictions using region-based stabilization.
problem Improving the accuracy of random forest predictions for Poisson process data.
method Region-based stabilization and Malliavin-Stein method for multivariate Gaussian approximation.
result Established Gaussian approximation bounds for random forest predictions under Poisson process.
Dilated CNN improves multivariate time series classification.
problem Multivariate time series classification.
method Transformed multivariate time series into image-like style, applied dilated and strided convolutions.
result Automatic features extracted by dilated CNN are as effective as hand-crafted features.
Bayesian deep convolutional GPs improve image classification accuracy.
problem Inaccurate uncertainty estimates in traditional GPs for image classification.
method Translation-insensitive convolutional kernel, multi-output GPs, Bayesian approach.
result Improved performance in single-layer and deep models.
Develops a new MCMC-based Wishart prior for Gaussian Process covariance matrix.
problem Difficult inference for multivariate Gaussian Processes with multiple lengthscale parameters.
method Introduces a self-assembled Wishart prior and uses MCMC for Bayesian inference on kernel hyperparameters.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the new prior in GP-based learning with empirical results.
Multivariate categorical data occur in many applications of machine learning. One of the main difficulties with these vectors of categorical variables is sparsity. The number of possible observations grows exponentially with vector length, but dataset diversity might be poor in comparison. Recent models have gained sig…
Improved inference for heterogeneous multi-output Gaussian processes using natural gradient optimization.
problem Challenges in adaptive gradient optimization for multi-output Gaussian processes.
method Introducing a fully natural gradient scheme to overcome optimization issues.
result Better local optima solutions and higher test performance rates compared to adaptive gradient methods.
Improved model for non-smooth signals with complex spectra.
problem Current models struggle with non-smooth signals and complex spectral structures.
method CGPCM and RGPCM models with causality and Bayesian nonparametric interpretations, improved variational inference.
result Proposed models show better performance on synthetic and real-world data.
Improves Gaussian process models for large datasets.
problem Selecting proper covariance functions in Gaussian processes.
method Nonparametric process convolutions and deep GP models.
result Improves performance on benchmarks for GPs, especially for larger datasets.
Proposes a flexible MGP model for dynamic, sparse correlations.
problem Handling dynamic and sparse correlations in multivariate data.
method Non-stationary MGP with dynamic spike-and-slab prior and EM algorithm.
result Captures dynamic and sparse correlations effectively.
Enhances Gaussian process models for handling variable error variances and multiple responses.
problem Limited ability of Gaussian process models to capture abrupt changes and heteroscedastic errors.
method Introduces a novel heteroscedastic Gaussian process (HeGP) framework coupled with variational inference and EM algorithm.
result Effective modeling of multivariate responses with varying error variances.
The paper develops scalable Bayesian models for dynamic covariance matrices using Gaussian processes.
problem Modeling dynamic and heteroskedastic covariance matrices for multivariate time series.
method Gradient-based variational inference for Wishart and inverse Wishart processes, with modifications for scalability and factoring.
result The modified models can scale to high-dimensional covariance matrices and outperform multivariate GARCH in covariance forecasting.
Multi-output Gaussian processes (MOGPs) are an extension of Gaussian Processes (GPs) for predicting multiple output variables (also called channels, tasks) simultaneously. In this paper we use the convolution theorem to design a new kernel for MOGPs, by modeling cross channel dependencies through cross convolution of t…
The paper proposes an ensemble of convolution-based methods for fault detection in gearboxes.
problem Fault detection in planetary gearboxes using vibration signals.
method Ensemble of three convolution kernel-based methods (ROCKET, 1D CNN with ResNet, FCN).
result Outperforms other approaches with over 98.8% accuracy.
GPCDL uses Gaussian Processes to learn smooth templates from data.
problem Lack of smoothness in learned templates leads to overfitting and poor predictive performance.
method GPCDL incorporates Gaussian Process priors to enforce smoothness in the learned templates.
result GPCDL outperforms unregularized CDL in accuracy and predictive performance across various SNRs and applications.
This paper provides an algorithm for simulating improper (or noncircular) complex-valued stationary Gaussian processes. The technique utilizes recently developed methods for multivariate Gaussian processes from the circulant embedding literature. The method can be performed in O(nlog2n) operations, where…
We establish large deviation principles for convolutional neural networks.
problem Understanding the behavior of convolutional neural networks in the infinite-channel limit.
method We establish large deviation principles for convolutional neural networks under Gaussian prior and posterior distributions.
result We provide a large deviation principle for the sequence of conditional covariance matrices and the posterior distribution.
GP-ConvCNP improves NP models for time series data by adding Gaussian Process.
problem GP-ConvCNP addresses the lack of generalization and robustness in ConvCNP models for time series data.
method GP-ConvCNP incorporates a Gaussian Process to improve ConvCNP's performance and generalization.
result GP-ConvCNP models show improved generalization and robustness to distribution shifts and future extrapolation.
A new imputation model for clinical data captures both cross-sectional and temporal correlations.
problem Missing values in multivariable time series clinical data.
method Integrates Gaussian processes with mixture models and individualized mixing weights.
result The proposed model provides more accurate imputation than benchmarks on real-world and synthetic datasets.
New model encodes multivariate signals more efficiently with sparsity and low-rank constraints.
problem Efficiently encoding multivariate signals with sparsity and low-rank constraints.
method Multivariate convolutional sparse coding with tensor algebra, CP decomposition, and alternating optimization.
result Proves model closely related to Kruskal tensor regression problem with theoretical guarantees.
Researchers disrupt Gaussian model inference to test adversarial attacks.
problem Disrupting conditional inference in multivariate Gaussian models under adversarial conditions.
method Considered white- and grey-box settings with complete and incomplete knowledge of the Gaussian distribution, respectively. Reduced to quadratic and stochastic quadratic programs. Derived structural properties for solution methods.
result Demonstrated the impact and efficacy of attacks in various applications, including real estate evaluation, interest rate estimation, and signals processing.