Multistep traffic forecasting on road networks is a crucial task in successful intelligent transportation system applications. To capture the complex non-stationary temporal dynamics and spatial dependency in multistep traffic-condition prediction, we propose a novel deep learning framework named attention graph convol…
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48 results for “Multistep Prediction”
The project aims to research on combining deep learning specifically Long-Short Memory (LSTM) and basic statistics in multiple multistep time series prediction. LSTM can dive into all the pages and learn the general trends of variation in a large scope, while the well selected medians for each page can keep the special…
Recurrent Neural Filters: Learning Independent Bayesian Filtering Steps for Time Series Predictionstat.ML
RNF learns distinct representations for Bayesian filtering steps, improving time series prediction accuracy and uncertainty.
problem Improving time series prediction accuracy and uncertainty using distinct representations for Bayesian filtering steps.
method Introduces Recurrent Neural Filter (RNF) architecture that learns distinct representations for each Bayesian filtering step.
result RNF improves accuracy of one-step-ahead forecasts and provides realistic uncertainty estimates.
Investor finds a fair outcome in complex financial markets.
problem Finding a fair outcome in complex financial markets.
method Recalled and proved the existence of personal equilibrium in a multistep, generically incomplete financial market model.
result Personal equilibrium exists in a multistep, generically incomplete financial market model under appropriate assumptions.
Unified model improves sampling speed and quality.
problem Difficult to balance sampling speed and quality.
method Multistep Consistency Models combining consistency and diffusion models.
result Improved sampling quality with reduced steps.
We study multistep Bayesian betting strategies in coin-tossing games in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that by a countable mixture of these strategies, a gambler or an investor can exploit arbitrary patterns of deviations of nature's moves from independent Bernoulli trial…
Proposes DPGN for integrating physics knowledge into graph networks for climate prediction.
problem Lack of explicit physics knowledge in deep neural networks.
method Integrates implicit physics knowledge from domain experts into latent space of DPGN.
result Significant improvement in climate prediction tasks.
We present a derivation and theoretical investigation of the Adams-Bashforth and Adams-Moulton family of linear multistep methods for solving ordinary differential equations, starting from a Gaussian process (GP) framework. In the limit, this formulation coincides with the classical deterministic methods, which have be…
Proposes exact inference for continuous-time Gaussian process dynamics.
problem Inexact inference methods for continuous-time Gaussian process dynamics are impractical for irregularly-sampled data.
method Uses higher-order numerical integrators to discretize dynamics with arbitrary accuracy and proposes multistep and Taylor integrators for exact inference.
result Demonstrates accurate representation of continuous-time systems through exact GP inference.
COLoKe adapts Koopman embeddings online, reducing overfitting and improving long-term predictions.
problem Online adaptation of Koopman embeddings to avoid overfitting and maintain long-term predictive accuracy.
method Combines deep feature learning with multistep prediction consistency in a lifted space, using a conformal-style mechanism for selective updates.
result Empirically effective in reducing overfitting and maintaining long-term predictive accuracy.
Paper analyzes biased stochastic approximation with a novel multistep Lyapunov function.
problem Finite-time analysis of biased stochastic approximation algorithms.
method Developed a multistep Lyapunov function to analyze convergence and error bounds.
result First finite-time error bounds for TD- and Q-learning with linear function approximation.
Continuous semi-implicit models enable faster training and better performance in generative modeling.
problem Slow convergence in hierarchical semi-implicit models during training.
method CoSIM, a continuous semi-implicit model that incorporates a continuous transition kernel for efficient training.
result CoSIM achieves superior performance on image generation tasks compared to existing methods.
Generative models for complex stochastic dynamics using adversarial learning.
problem Data-driven modeling of multistep stochastic dynamics.
method Adversarial learning with GANs and MMD for stable model classes.
result Stable generative models for long-time prediction and stochastic systems.
Deep learning framework predicts streamflow and flood probabilities in Australian catchments.
problem Large-scale flooding prediction challenges due to model calibration and missing data.
method Ensemble quantile-based deep learning framework using quantile regression and CAMELS dataset.
result Notable efficacy and uncertainties in streamflow forecasts with varied catchment properties.
New methods improve deep reinforcement learning by accelerating credit assignment.
problem Challenges in achieving fast and stable off-policy learning in deep reinforcement learning.
method Extends the generalized PBE objective to support multistep credit assignment and derives three gradient-based methods.
result Proposed methods outperform PPO and StreamQ in MuJoCo and MinAtar environments.
Proposes a graph neural network for traffic forecasting in WANs.
problem Traffic forecasting challenges in WANs due to dynamic and large data volumes.
method Dynamic diffusion convolutional recurrent neural networks for multistep traffic forecasting.
result Significant improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to classical methods.
The study forecasts, reconstructs, and selects features of ocean waves using neural networks.
problem Forecasting, reconstructing, and feature selection of ocean waves.
method Recurrent and sequence-to-sequence neural networks, Bayesian hyperparameter optimization, Elastic Net method.
result Proposed methods outperform alternatives in significant wave height reconstruction.
New method for pricing options in stochastic volatility models.
problem Pricing options in models with stochastic volatility.
method Time-adaptive, high-order compact finite difference scheme.
result Extends fourth-order multistep methods to stochastic volatility models.
We propose and analyze a block coordinate descent proximal algorithm (BCD-prox) for simultaneous filtering and parameter estimation of ODE models. As we show on ODE systems with up to d=40 dimensions, as compared to state-of-the-art methods, BCD-prox exhibits increased robustness (to noise, parameter initialization, an…
The process of transforming observed data into predictive mathematical models of the physical world has always been paramount in science and engineering. Although data is currently being collected at an ever-increasing pace, devising meaningful models out of such observations in an automated fashion still remains an op…
Proposes an efficient method for GPLVM with arbitrary kernels.
problem GPLVM's limitation with standard kernel functions and computational bottlenecks.
method Uses the unscented transformation to handle arbitrary kernels efficiently.
result Comparable or better performance with linear computational complexity.
The study proposes using TD error for selecting σ in Q(σ, λ).
problem Selecting the value of σ in Q(σ, λ) based on state characteristics.
method TD error as a heuristic for selecting σ.
result TD error can effectively select σ based on state characteristics.
New model reduces volatility parameters and complexity.
problem Accurately modeling multivariate volatility with network structure.
method Introduces a new multivariate volatility model using both low and high-frequency data.
result The model significantly reduces parameter count and computational complexity.
Regularized nonlinear acceleration (RNA) estimates the minimum of a function by post-processing iterates from an algorithm such as the gradient method. It can be seen as a regularized version of Anderson acceleration, a classical acceleration scheme from numerical analysis. The new scheme provably improves the rate of …
New algorithm solves complex equations using deep learning.
problem High-dimensional nonlinear PDEs and BSDEs.
method Iterated time discretization, deep neural networks, stochastic gradient descent.
result Increased accuracy and reduced complexity compared to existing methods.
Paper introduces differential privacy for sparse classification learning.
problem Privacy-preserving sparse classification learning.
method Differential privacy via ADMM with exponential noise addition.
result Proposes a privacy-preserving logistic regression algorithm.
A new machine learning method for Bayesian inverse problems in function spaces.
problem Bayesian inverse problems in function spaces with incompatibility of white noise sources.
method One-step generative transport with amortized neural operator and prior-aligned Gaussian random field.
result Generative operator trained on prior samples and noisy observations generates posterior samples efficiently.
Comprehending complex systems by simplifying and highlighting important dynamical patterns requires modeling and mapping higher-order network flows. However, complex systems come in many forms and demand a range of representations, including memory and multilayer networks, which in turn call for versatile community-det…
In this paper, we analyze the theory of meromorphic -forms Hence, we show that on a compact Riemann surface of genus isomorphic to every non-constant meromorphic function has as many zeros as poles, where each is counted acc…
A new Bayesian method optimizes time-dependent expensive functions with lookahead.
problem Maximizing a time-dependent, expensive oracle with limited evaluations.
method Recursive, two-step lookahead expected payoff (r2LEY) acquisition function.
result r2LEY outperforms myopic methods in synthetic and real-world datasets.
Modelling Returns and Volatilities During Financial Crises: a Time Varying Coefficient Approachq-fin.GN
We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two decades in the mean and volatility dynamics, including the underlying volatility pe…
Consistency Modelscs.LG
Consistency models generate high-quality samples fast and without iterative sampling.
problem Slow generation in diffusion models.
method Direct mapping of noise to data, supporting fast one-step generation and multistep sampling.
result Consistency models achieve state-of-the-art FID scores and outperform diffusion models in one-step generation.
New method reduces PDE model parameters by 30% with sparsity.
problem Redundant parameters in neural network projections.
method Bregman iterations for sparsity, POD compression, bias propagation.
result 30% fewer parameters with similar accuracy.
Any two equivalent discrete curves must have the same invariants at the corresponding points under an affine transformation. In this paper, we construct the moving frame and invariants for the discrete centroaffine curves, which could be used to discriminate the same discrete curves from different graphics, and estimat…
Improves neural network estimates using IFs without needing more data.
problem Bias and lack of flexibility in neural network models.
method MultiNet and MultiStep methods using Influence Functions.
result Improves model robustness and facilitates statistical inference without additional data.
Framework improves clinical timeline reconstruction from text and tables.
problem Temporal precision and event timing in clinical narratives and EHRs.
method Retrieval-augmented multimodal alignment framework.
result Consistently improves absolute timestamp accuracy and temporal concordance.
The paper addresses Dyna-style RL's value hallucination issue by proposing a new algorithm.
problem Value hallucination in Dyna-style RL due to bootstrapping simulated states.
method Introduces a new Dyna algorithm using predecessor models with multi-step updates.
result Evidence supports the Hallucinated Value Hypothesis (HVH), suggesting predecessor models with multi-step updates are promising.
RESIST improves decentralized learning resilience against MITM attacks.
problem Decentralized learning's vulnerability to MITM attacks.
method Multistep consensus gradient descent framework with robust statistics-based screening methods.
result Achieves algorithmic and statistical convergence for various ERM problems.
Few-step protein backbone generators reduce sampling time by over 20x.
problem Computational bottleneck in diffusion-based protein generation models.
method Score distillation adapted for protein backbone generation, combined with inference time noise modulation.
result Significant reduction in sampling time (20+ fold) while maintaining comparable performance.
While computer and communication technologies have provided effective means to scale up many aspects of education, the submission and grading of assessments such as homework assignments and tests remains a weak link. In this paper, we study the problem of automatically grading the kinds of open response mathematical qu…
Fuzzy prediction sets generalize binary predictions to include elements at varying confidence levels.
problem Binary prediction sets are limited; fuzzy prediction sets offer richer guarantees.
method Generalize prediction sets to fuzzy sets, showing they are e-values with merging properties.
result Optimal e-values lead to optimal fuzzy prediction sets, including optimal conformal prediction.
Paper defines predictive multiplicity and measures its severity in classification problems.
problem Challenges in machine learning due to competing models with conflicting predictions.
method Formal measures and integer programming tools for linear classification problems.
result Real-world datasets may admit competing models with wildly conflicting predictions.
A novel continual prediction model outperforms traditional one-time models in predicting AKI.
problem Optimally predicting AKI before it develops during a hospital stay.
method A novel continual prediction model that predicts AKI every time a patient's AKI-relevant variable changes in the EHR.
result The continual prediction model outperformed traditional one-time models, achieving a higher AUC of 0.724 compared to 0.653.
This paper re-examines conformal e-prediction and its advantages over conformal prediction.
problem The relationship between conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction.
method Systematic re-examination of conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction from a modern perspective.
result Conformal e-prediction has advantages such as ease of designing conditional predictors and guaranteed validity of cross-predictors.
Two new methods improve efficiency of conformal predictive systems.
problem Efficiency of conformal predictive systems in regression problems.
method Split conformal predictive systems and cross-conformal predictive systems.
result Cross-conformal predictive systems are more efficient but not guaranteed valid.
Self-calibrating conformal prediction improves interval efficiency and offers a practical alternative.
problem Improving the reliability and uncertainty quantification of machine learning predictions.
method Combines Venn-Abers calibration and conformal prediction for binary and regression problems.
result Improves interval efficiency through model calibration and offers practical alternatives.
Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.
problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.
The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.
problem The need for accurate joint predictions in decision-making problems.
method The paper analyzes combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits, introducing an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and new regret bounds.
result Accurate joint predictions are essential for good performance in decision-making problems.