Proposes a flexible neural model for multi-state survival analysis.
problem Limited applicability of Cox models for multi-state and competing events.
method Uses neural ordinary differential equations to solve Kolmogorov forward equations.
result Demonstrates state-of-the-art performance and interpretability.
A new framework models multi-state events and biomarkers.
problem Limited representation of complex multi-state trajectories.
method General multi-state joint modeling framework.
result Accurate parameter recovery and personalized predictions.
In this paper we propose a multi-state model for the evaluation of the conversion option contract. The multi-state model is based on age-indexed semi-Markov chains that are able to reproduce many important aspects that influence the valuation of the option such as the duration problem, the time non-homogeneity and the …
The paper analyzes multivariate payments in multi-state life insurance using Markovian state processes.
problem Analyzing joint effects of life annuities and death benefits in a multi-state framework.
method Introduces multivariate present value of future payments, derives differential equations and moment generating functions, and focuses on pair-wise covariances.
result Derives Hattendorff type results for pair-wise covariances in a disability model.
Unified framework for fair pricing in long-term insurance products.
problem Unclear generalization of fair pricing methods to long-term products.
method Reformulate multi-state transition models as Poisson regression problems.
result Direct application of existing fair pricing methods to long-term insurance products.
New models for insurance claims accounting for delays.
problem Delayed claims processing affects real-time policy development.
method Introducing transaction time models to describe multi-state life insurance.
result Explicit expressions for transaction time reserves derived.
The paper calculates bonus values in complex insurance schemes.
problem Calculating bonus payments in multi-state with-profit life insurance.
method Combines financial risk simulation with insurance risk methods.
result Efficient numerical procedures for bonus calculation.
Proposes a new model to analyze mortgage delinquency transitions.
problem Analyzing mortgage delinquency transitions in a flexible yet identifiable way.
method Combines structured additive predictor with neural network for complex interactions, orthogonalising components for identifiability.
result The semi-structured model provides modest gains in discrimination compared to a structured model, especially in the early prediction spans.
A deep learning framework for survival analysis combining piecewise exponential models.
problem Survival analysis with competing risks, multi-state modeling, and time-varying effects.
method Piecewise exponential models embedded in a neural network.
result Predicted Alzheimer's disease progression using tabular and 3D point cloud data.
The idea of forward rates stems from interest rate theory. It has natural connotations to transition rates in multi-state models. The generalization from the forward mortality rate in a survival model to multi-state models is non-trivial and several definitions have been proposed. We establish a theoretical framework f…
In this work, we consider the class of multi-state autoregressive processes that can be used to model non-stationary time-series of interest. In order to capture different autoregressive (AR) states underlying an observed time series, it is crucial to select the appropriate number of states. We propose a new model sele…
Improves clustering fairness by learning fair clusters adaptively.
problem Fairness in deep clustering, especially for protected status variables.
method Formulates group-level fairness as ILP, integrates into discriminative deep clustering, refines learning algorithm.
result Consistently outperforms fair clustering algorithms on real-world datasets.
A Longitudinal Attribute-Conditioned Neural Network (LANTERN) framework for modeling health-state transition probabilities in irregular longitudinal data.
problem Estimating long-term care transition probabilities in irregular longitudinal health data.
method A neural network that learns from individual health history, incorporates time elapsed, and conditions on demographic and socioeconomic attributes.
result Improves severe disability discrimination and maintains strong calibration.
Study on stock trading model with uncertain market status, proving free boundaries and optimal strategies.
problem Optimal trading strategies in a stock market with uncertain market status.
method Free boundary problem, variational inequality system, degenerate operator, C^∞-smoothness.
result All four switching free boundaries are no-overlapping, monotonic, and C^∞-smooth, and their relative localities are completely determined.
Fair clustering under the disparate impact doctrine requires that population of each protected group should be approximately equal in every cluster. Previous work investigated a difficult-to-scale pre-processing step for k-center and k-median style algorithms for the special case of this problem when the number of …
We study the problem of determining risk-minimizing investment strategies for insurance payment processes in the presence of taxes and expenses. We consider the situation where taxes and expenses are paid continuously and symmetrically and introduce the concept of tax- and expense-modified risk-minimization. Risk-minim…
SiBBlInGS discovers interpretable building blocks across states in multi-way data.
problem Identifying interpretable units (Building Blocks) in multi-state, multi-way data.
method Graph-based dictionary learning approach for sparse BBs and temporal traces.
result Captures per-trial variability and state-specific vs. state-invariant components.
Selection of appropriate collective variables for enhancing sampling of molecular simulations remains an unsolved problem in computational biophysics. In particular, picking initial collective variables (CVs) is particularly challenging in higher dimensions. Which atomic coordinates or transforms there of from a list o…
Complex contagion model explains financial fire sales through continuous asset prices.
problem Modeling financial fire sales with a continuum of asset prices.
method Developed a threshold model of continuous-state cascades using real values for asset prices.
result Discretization approach accurately replicates the distribution of defaulted banks and asset prices.
The paper models stochastic interest rates for life insurance using phase-type distributions.
problem Modeling stochastic interest rates in life insurance with matrix approach.
method Integrates piecewise deterministic interest rates into a Markov jump process framework.
result Explicit formulas for reserves and future payments can be derived.
The paper reveals that baselines significantly impact RL algorithms' convergence.
problem Understanding the true impact of baselines on policy optimization.
method Theoretical analysis of bandit and RL problems, focusing on natural policy gradient and EXP3.
result Baselines can determine algorithm convergence, contradicting traditional optimization theory.
The study uses Bayesian Hidden Markov Models to predict cryptocurrency returns.
problem Predicting the volatility and trends of cryptocurrencies.
method Bayesian Hidden Markov Models with four states to capture different return characteristics.
result The NHHM model with four states outperforms other models in predicting cryptocurrency returns.
New algorithm predicts lung cancer progression and mortality.
problem Predicting semi-competing risk outcomes in lung cancer.
method Neural Expectation-Maximization algorithm for multi-state outcomes.
result Estimates non-parametric baseline hazards and risk functions.
Evidence suggests Rapid-Eye-Movement (REM) Sleep Behaviour Disorder (RBD) is an early predictor of Parkinson's disease. This study proposes a fully-automated framework for RBD detection consisting of automated sleep staging followed by RBD identification. Analysis was assessed using a limited polysomnography montage fr…
Excited-state dynamics simulations are a powerful tool to investigate photo-induced reactions of molecules and materials and provide complementary information to experiments. Since the applicability of these simulation techniques is limited by the costs of the underlying electronic structure calculations, we develop an…
Big data sets must be carefully partitioned into statistically similar data subsets that can be used as representative samples for big data analysis tasks. In this paper, we propose the random sample partition (RSP) data model to represent a big data set as a set of non-overlapping data subsets, called RSP data blocks,…
A new method for handling imbalanced big data using ensembles and smart data.
problem Imbalanced data distribution in big data scenarios.
method Smart Data driven Decision Trees Ensemble (SD_DeTE) methodology.
result SD_DeTE outperforms Random Forest in handling imbalanced binary classification problems in big data.
Prevents sensitive data generation in diffusion models using labeled and unlabeled data.
problem Generating sensitive data in diffusion models using unlabeled data.
method Positive-Unlabeled Diffusion Models, approximating ELBO with labeled and unlabeled data.
result Prevents the generation of sensitive data without compromising image quality.
Study reveals Data Shapley's inconsistent performance in data selection tasks.
problem Inconsistency of Data Shapley's performance in data selection across different settings.
method Hypothesis testing framework and identification of utility functions.
result Data Shapley's performance is no better than random selection without specific constraints.
PRRO generates synthetic tabular data that improves SL performance and class distribution.
problem Low SL utility of synthetic data due to class imbalance and overlooked data relationships.
method Data pruning and column reordering to optimize SL utility.
result Synthetic data generated with PRRO enhances predictive performance and class distribution.
Defines data science as a natural ecosystem with challenges and missions.
problem Challenges and missions in data science due to 5D complexities and data life cycle phases.
method Systemic and data-centric view of data science as a fusion of data universe and its challenges, formalizing a general-purpose architecture.
result Essential data science as a natural ecosystem integrating specific disciplines and high-impact applications.
Synthetic data enhances analytics but requires careful volume management.
problem Accuracy of statistical methods on synthetic data vs. raw data.
method Synthetic Data Generation for Analytics framework using tabular diffusion models.
result Error rate decreases with more synthetic data but may stabilize or increase.
New test ensures quality of shared data in machine learning.
problem Ensuring quality of external data in machine learning tasks.
method Distribution-free two-sample testing procedures grounded in conformal outlier detection.
result Identifies valuable external data agents for model personalization.
Differential privacy allows quantifying privacy loss resulting from accessing sensitive personal data. Repeated accesses to underlying data incur increasing loss. Releasing data as privacy-preserving synthetic data would avoid this limitation, but would leave open the problem of designing what kind of synthetic data. W…
Paper creates fair synthetic data ensuring equal predictions across sensitive attributes.
problem Ensuring fair predictions across sensitive attributes in synthetic data.
method Equalizing target probability distributions across sensitive attributes in synthetic data generation.
result Synthetic data provides strong fair predictions, equal across all thresholds.
DPA preserves data distribution in reduced dimensions.
problem Loss of data distribution in dimension reduction.
method DPA combines encoder and decoder to match data distribution.
result DPA successfully reconstructs data distribution.
Efficient synthetic data generation improves model performance on tabular data.
problem Improving model robustness and performance with scarce or low-quality data.
method Hardness characterization to identify high-value training points, generating synthetic data only from these points.
result Synthetic data generated from hardest points outperforms non-targeted methods on tabular datasets.
For most problems in science and engineering we can obtain data sets that describe the observed system from various perspectives and record the behavior of its individual components. Heterogeneous data sets can be collectively mined by data fusion. Fusion can focus on a specific target relation and exploit directly ass…
DAERNN models censored data using neural networks with data augmentation.
problem Handling censored data in expectile regression.
method Data augmentation based Expectile Regression Neural Networks (ERNNs).
result DAERNN outperforms existing censored ERNNs methods and achieves comparable predictive performance to fully observed data.
Data preprocessing techniques are devoted to correct or alleviate errors in data. Discretization and feature selection are two of the most extended data preprocessing techniques. Although we can find many proposals for static Big Data preprocessing, there is little research devoted to the continuous Big Data problem. A…
Data stream classification methods demonstrate promising performance on a single data stream by exploring the cohesion in the data stream. However, multiple data streams that involve several correlated data streams are common in many practical scenarios, which can be viewed as multi-task data streams. Instead of handli…
Data collection is a major bottleneck in machine learning and an active research topic in multiple communities. There are largely two reasons data collection has recently become a critical issue. First, as machine learning is becoming more widely-used, we are seeing new applications that do not necessarily have enough …
This paper quantifies uncertainty in Data Shapley using statistical inference.
problem Uncertainty in data valuation due to dynamic data distribution.
method Established relationship with U-statistics and quantified uncertainty using statistical inference.
result Confidence intervals for Data Shapley estimations are provided.
DCoM uses deep neural networks to detect semantic data types from raw column values.
problem Detecting semantic data types from dirty and unseen data.
method DCoM employs multi-input NLP-based deep neural networks trained on 686,765 data columns.
result DCoM outperforms existing methods significantly on 78 different semantic data types.
Causal inference from observational data is the goal of many data analyses in the health and social sciences. However, academic statistics has often frowned upon data analyses with a causal objective. The introduction of the term "data science" provides a historic opportunity to redefine data analysis in such a way tha…
Task-agnostic data valuation without validation requirements.
problem Valuing data without specific task assumptions.
method Estimating data diversity and relevance through queries without raw data.
result Estimates capture the diversity and relevance of seller's data for the buyer.
Data mining is about obtaining new knowledge from existing datasets. However, the data in the existing datasets can be scattered, noisy, and even incomplete. Although lots of effort is spent on developing or fine-tuning data mining models to make them more robust to the noise of the input data, their qualities still st…
New algorithm improves data imputation for complex multimodal data sets.
problem Artifacts in imputation methods for multimodal distributions.
method Combines kNN and KDE for probabilistic estimates. result Lower imputation errors and higher likelihood estimates.