A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Random matrix theory is used to assess the significance of weak correlations and is well established for Gaussian statistics. However, many complex systems, with stock markets as a prominent example, exhibit statistics with power-law tails, that can be modelled with Levy stable distributions. We review comprehensively …
We propose a patch sampling strategy based on a sequential Monte-Carlo method for high resolution image classification in the context of Multiple Instance Learning. When compared with grid sampling and uniform sampling techniques, it achieves higher generalization performance. We validate the strategy on two artificial…
Monte Carlo (MC) techniques are often used to estimate integrals of a multivariate function using randomly generated samples of the function. In light of the increasing interest in uncertainty quantification and robust design applications in aerospace engineering, the calculation of expected values of such functions (e…
Bayesian max-margin models have shown superiority in various practical applications, such as text categorization, collaborative prediction, social network link prediction and crowdsourcing, and they conjoin the flexibility of Bayesian modeling and predictive strengths of max-margin learning. However, Monte Carlo sampli…
An important application of intelligent vehicles is advance detection of dangerous events such as collisions. This problem is framed as a problem of optimal alarm choice given predictive models for vehicle location and motion. Techniques for real-time collision detection are surveyed and grouped into three classes: ran…
GPU computing has become popular in computational finance and many financial institutions are moving their CPU based applications to the GPU platform. Since most Monte Carlo algorithms are embarrassingly parallel, they benefit greatly from parallel implementations, and consequently Monte Carlo has become a focal point …
MCCE generates realistic counterfactual explanations for tabular data.
problem Creating valid and actionable counterfactual explanations for complex tabular data.
method MCCE models the joint distribution of features and decision using an autoregressive generative model with decision trees. It samples counterfactuals and removes invalid ones.
result MCCE outperforms state-of-the-art methods on various performance metrics and is faster.
We describe an embarrassingly parallel, anytime Monte Carlo method for likelihood-free models. The algorithm starts with the view that the stochasticity of the pseudo-samples generated by the simulator can be controlled externally by a vector of random numbers u, in such a way that the outcome, knowing u, is determinis…
Regularized linear regression under the ℓ1 penalty, such as the Lasso, has been shown to be effective in variable selection and sparse modeling. The sampling distribution of an ℓ1-penalized estimator β^ is hard to determine as the estimator is defined by an optimization problem that in general can only…
We unify slice sampling and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling, demonstrating their connection via the Hamiltonian-Jacobi equation from Hamiltonian mechanics. This insight enables extension of HMC and slice sampling to a broader family of samplers, called Monomial Gamma Samplers (MGS). We provide a theoretical anal…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the main workhorses of probabilistic inference, but it is notoriously hard to measure the quality of approximate posterior samples. This challenge is particularly salient in black box inference methods, which can hide details and obscure inference failures. In this work, we ext…
In this paper, we discuss the application of quasi-Monte Carlo methods to the Heston model. We base our algorithms on the Broadie-Kaya algorithm, an exact simulation scheme for the Heston model. As the joint transition densities are not available in closed-form, the Linear Transformation method due to Imai and Tan, a p…
We consider the problem of simulating loss probabilities and conditional excesses for linear asset portfolios under the t-copula model. Although in the literature on market risk management there are papers proposing efficient variance reduction methods for Monte Carlo simulation of portfolio market risk, there is no pa…