A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
This paper extends AD techniques to Monte Carlo processes for efficient derivative calculation.
Speeds up complex portfolio exposure calculations.
This study compares MC and QMC methods for derivative pricing, showing QMC's superior convergence rates.
Quantum computing techniques applied to Monte Carlo simulations in finance.
New method reduces Monte Carlo error in option pricing and Greeks estimation.
Recommender systems play an essential role in the modern business world. They recommend favorable items like books, movies, and search queries to users based on their past preferences. Applying similar ideas and techniques to Monte Carlo simulations of physical systems boosts their efficiency without sacrificing accura…
Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are recent variance reduction techniques. In this work, we propose a mathematical setting which greatly relaxes the assumptions needed by for the adaptive importance sampling techniques presented by Vazquez-Abad and Dufresne, Fu and Su, and Arouna. We establish the convergence and asymptoti…
We consider the problem of simulating loss probabilities and conditional excesses for linear asset portfolios under the t-copula model. Although in the literature on market risk management there are papers proposing efficient variance reduction methods for Monte Carlo simulation of portfolio market risk, there is no pa…
New method combines Monte Carlo and tensor networks for solving complex equations.
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are generally regarded as the gold standard technique for Bayesian inference. They are theoretically well-understood and conceptually simple to apply in practice. The drawback of MCMC is that in general performing exact inference requires all of the data to be processed at eac…
This paper explores alternative regression techniques in pricing American put options and compares to the least-squares method (LSM) in Monte Carlo implemented by Longstaff-Schwartz, 2001 which uses least squares to estimate the conditional expected payoff to the option holder from continuation. The pricing is done und…
We introduce a stacking version of the Monte Carlo algorithm in the context of option pricing. Introduced recently for aeronautic computations, this simple technique, in the spirit of current machine learning ideas, learns control variates by approximating Monte Carlo draws with some specified function. We describe the…
PL-MCMC samples from normalizing flows' conditional distributions.
Study improves sampling from complex distributions using annealed Langevin Monte Carlo.
Monte Carlo (MC) techniques are often used to estimate integrals of a multivariate function using randomly generated samples of the function. In light of the increasing interest in uncertainty quantification and robust design applications in aerospace engineering, the calculation of expected values of such functions (e…
Gradient-based Monte Carlo sampling algorithms, like Langevin dynamics and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, are important methods for Bayesian inference. In large-scale settings, full-gradients are not affordable and thus stochastic gradients evaluated on mini-batches are used as a replacement. In order to reduce the high vari…
New Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method for non-canonical dynamics.
Paper improves Monte Carlo sampling with new theoretical insights and methods.
We study the use of the multilevel Monte Carlo technique in the context of the calculation of Greeks. The pathwise sensitivity analysis differentiates the path evolution and reduces the payoff's smoothness. This leads to new challenges: the inapplicability of pathwise sensitivities to non-Lipschitz payoffs often makes …
The paper proposes a new method to approximate Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao flows using Monte Carlo techniques.
We show that deliberately introducing a nested simulation stage can lead to significant variance reductions when comparing two stopping times by Monte Carlo. We derive the optimal number of nested simulations and prove that the algorithm is remarkably robust to misspecifications of this number. The method is applied to…
Quantum algorithm speeds up financial option pricing.
This paper discusses the exact simulation of the stock price process underlying the 3/2 model. Using a result derived by Craddock and Lennox using Lie Symmetry Analysis, we adapt the Broadie-Kaya algorithm for the simulation of affine processes to the 3/2 model. We also discuss variance reduction techniques and find th…
In this paper we propose a flexible and efficient framework for handling multi-armed bandits, combining sequential Monte Carlo algorithms with hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques. The framework naturally encompasses restless bandits, contextual bandits, and other bandit variants under a single inferential model. …
Compressed Monte Carlo improves efficiency in Bayesian inference.
Monte Carlo Tree Search improves financial derivative hedging efficiency.
The paper predicts cryptocurrency prices using a path-dependent Monte Carlo simulation.
Study on Monte-Carlo dropout for uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
We develop an HMC algorithm to easily marginalize random effects in LMMs.
Generative models map simple samples to complex target samples.
New method reduces uncertainty in AI-driven Monte Carlo simulations.
Improved Least-Squares Monte Carlo with finite-difference ansatz.
New method samples from piecewise smooth distributions using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
Since Giles introduced the multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation method [18], there has been rapid development of the technique for a variety of applications in computational finance. This paper surveys the progress so far, highlights the key features in achieving a high rate of multilevel variance convergence, and su…
Novel approach to Bayesian experimental design for non-exchangeable data.
We review and apply Quasi Monte Carlo (QMC) and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) techniques to pricing and risk management (greeks) of representative financial instruments of increasing complexity. We compare QMC vs standard Monte Carlo (MC) results in great detail, using high-dimensional Sobol' low discrepancy sequen…
A Monte Carlo method for pairs trading on mean-reverting spreads with Lévy processes.
Enhances option pricing for American-style options using JDOI method.
In this note we apply the recently established Wiener-Hopf Monte Carlo (WHMC) simulation technique for Levy processes from Kuznetsov et al. [17] to path functionals, in particular first passage times, overshoots, undershoots and the last maximum before the passage time. Such functionals have many applications, for inst…
QMC and GSA improve option pricing and risk measures efficiency.
New method combines neural networks with Monte Carlo for complex system reliability.
This paper presents a fast Bayesian filtering technique for state estimation.
Analytical, free of time consuming Monte Carlo simulations, framework for credit portfolio systematic risk metrics calculations is presented. Techniques are described that allow calculation of portfolio-level systematic risk measures (standard deviation, VaR and Expected Shortfall) as well as allocation of risk down to…
Monte Carlo (MC) sampling algorithms are an extremely widely-used technique to estimate expectations of functions f(x), especially in high dimensions. Control variates are a very powerful technique to reduce the error of such estimates, but in their conventional form rely on having an accurate approximation of f, a pri…
PEMC uses ML to enhance Monte Carlo simulations, reducing variance and runtime.
Generation of pseudorandom numbers from different probability distributions has been studied extensively in the Monte Carlo simulation literature. Two standard generation techniques are the acceptance-rejection and inverse transformation methods. An alternative approach to Monte Carlo simulation is the quasi-Monte Carl…
A new method improves graph random features with quasi-Monte Carlo techniques.
We propose a patch sampling strategy based on a sequential Monte-Carlo method for high resolution image classification in the context of Multiple Instance Learning. When compared with grid sampling and uniform sampling techniques, it achieves higher generalization performance. We validate the strategy on two artificial…