Monte Carlo Tree Search improves financial derivative hedging efficiency.
problem Optimizing pricing and hedging of derivative contracts in incomplete markets.
method Integrates tree search techniques with Reinforcement Learning for optimal control problems.
result Monte Carlo Tree Search outperforms Q-learning in sample efficiency and learning speed. Bayesian optimization improves Monte-Carlo tree search for better state value estimation.
problem Slow convergence in Monte-Carlo tree search due to averaging in backpropagation.
method Softmax MCTS and Monotone MCTS, using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian process prior.
result Our framework outperforms previous methods in computer Go.
We present a new method for conducting Monte Carlo inference in graphical models which combines explicit search with generalized importance sampling. The idea is to reduce the variance of importance sampling by searching for significant points in the target distribution. We prove that it is possible to introduce search…
Paper shows MCTS approximates policy optimization, proposing an improved variant.
problem Improving AI performance through better MCTS algorithms.
method Shows MCTS approximates policy optimization problem, proposes a new algorithm.
result Proposed algorithm reliably outperforms original AlphaZero in multiple domains.
Proposes a Monte-Carlo method for sparse signal reconstruction.
problem Reconstructing sparse signals in high-dimensional settings.
method Greedy Monte-Carlo (GMC) search algorithm.
result GMC can achieve perfect reconstruction in undersampling situations.
Gradient-based methods are often used for policy optimization in deep reinforcement learning, despite being vulnerable to local optima and saddle points. Although gradient-free methods (e.g., genetic algorithms or evolution strategies) help mitigate these issues, poor initialization and local optima are still concerns …
A new algorithm improves sample complexity for thresholding in Monte Carlo Tree Search.
problem Determining if the root node value of a tree is at least a given threshold.
method Developed a δ-correct sequential sampling algorithm based on the Track-and-Stop strategy.
result Ratio-based modification of D-Tracking strategy reduces sample complexity and computational cost.
DR-MCTS improves decision quality and sample efficiency in complex environments.
problem Improving decision quality and sample efficiency in complex environments.
method Integrates Doubly Robust off-policy estimation into Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS).
result DR-MCTS achieves superior performance in Tic-Tac-Toe and VirtualHome tasks.
VCSMC improves efficiency in Bayesian phylogenetic inference.
problem Inefficient exploration of phylogenetic state space.
method Variational Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (VCSMC) and nested CSMC.
result VCSMC and VNCSMC explore higher probability spaces efficiently.
Combines MCTS and neural networks for efficient multi-period financial planning.
problem Solving multi-period financial planning models with high transaction costs and regime switching.
method Integrates Monte Carlo Tree Search with deep neural networks, using UTC and lookup search.
result Combined approach outperforms individual methods, solving complex models.
Deep reinforcement learning has been successfully applied to several visual-input tasks using model-free methods. In this paper, we propose a model-based approach that combines learning a DNN-based transition model with Monte Carlo tree search to solve a block-placing task in Minecraft. Our learned transition model pre…
Parallelizes MCTS for continuous domains using leaf and root parallelization.
problem Solving challenging tasks in continuous domains using MCTS.
method Extends existing parallelization strategies to continuous domains, focusing on leaf and root parallelization.
result Proposes two final selection strategies for continuous states in root parallelization.
LSH methods extend to function spaces for efficient similarity search.
problem Efficient similarity search in function spaces.
method Locality-sensitive hashing (LSH) extended to Lp spaces using function approximation or Monte Carlo techniques. result An LSH family for Wasserstein distance over continuous probability distributions.
Quantum computing techniques applied to Monte Carlo simulations in finance.
problem Efficiently simulating quantum algorithms for financial modeling.
method Introduces quantum computing basics, amplitude estimation, and Grover's algorithm for unstructured search.
result Demonstrates quantum approaches to Monte Carlo integration and counting in finance.
Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) algorithms perform simulation-based search to improve policies online. During search, the simulation policy is adapted to explore the most promising lines of play. MCTS has been used by state-of-the-art programs for many problems, however a disadvantage to MCTS is that it estimates the va…
Recommender systems play an essential role in the modern business world. They recommend favorable items like books, movies, and search queries to users based on their past preferences. Applying similar ideas and techniques to Monte Carlo simulations of physical systems boosts their efficiency without sacrificing accura…
Improves RL planning by proposing sub-goals hierarchically.
problem Sequential planning assumption in RL.
method Divide-and-Conquer Monte Carlo Tree Search (DC-MCTS).
result Improves navigation and control tasks.
LA-MCTS learns search space partition for black-box optimization using Monte Carlo Tree Search.
problem High-dimensional black-box optimization challenges.
method LA-MCTS recursively splits search space into regions with high/low function values, learns nonlinear partition and local models online.
result LA-MCTS achieves strong performance in black-box optimization and reinforcement learning benchmarks, especially for high-dimensional problems.
New approach handles stochastic and partially-observable environments using discrete autoencoders and Monte Carlo tree search.
problem Challenges in planning for stochastic and partially-observable environments.
method Uses discrete autoencoders and a stochastic variant of Monte Carlo tree search.
result Significantly outperforms MuZero on stochastic chess and scales to DeepMind Lab.
Paper proposes an unbiased optimization method for Bayesian experimental design.
problem Maximizing expected information gain in Bayesian experimental design.
method Randomized multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method combined with stochastic gradient descent.
result An unbiased estimator for the gradient of expected information gain.
The AutoML task consists of selecting the proper algorithm in a machine learning portfolio, and its hyperparameter values, in order to deliver the best performance on the dataset at hand. Mosaic, a Monte-Carlo tree search (MCTS) based approach, is presented to handle the AutoML hybrid structural and parametric expensiv…
AlphaCFG discovers alpha factors using grammar-guided search.
problem Discovering formulaic alpha factors in finance.
method AlphaCFG uses a grammar-based framework to define and discover alpha factors with syntactic and semantic constraints.
result AlphaCFG outperforms state-of-the-art methods in trading profitability and efficiency.
Approximate inference in high-dimensional, discrete probabilistic models is a central problem in computational statistics and machine learning. This paper describes discrete particle variational inference (DPVI), a new approach that combines key strengths of Monte Carlo, variational and search-based techniques. DPVI is…
A hybrid model for Bayesian optimization handles mixed variables using MCTS for categorical and GP for continuous.
problem Optimizing functions with mixed variable types (continuous, integer, categorical).
method Merges MCTS for categorical and GP for continuous variables, integrates UCTS search strategy, and dynamically selects kernels.
result Hybrid models outperform traditional methods in Bayesian optimization.
New method combines heuristics and search techniques to speed up cooperative planning for autonomous vehicles.
problem Efficient cooperative planning for autonomous vehicles in complex traffic scenarios.
method Combining learned heuristics with Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to guide search towards promising actions.
result Better solutions at lower computational costs achieved through accelerated planning.
Active Reinforcement Learning (ARL) is a twist on RL where the agent observes reward information only if it pays a cost. This subtle change makes exploration substantially more challenging. Powerful principles in RL like optimism, Thompson sampling, and random exploration do not help with ARL. We relate ARL in tabular …
RiskMiner discovers formulaic alphas using MCTS for better performance.
problem Mining formulaic alphas without considering structural information and alpha correlations.
method Formulates alpha mining as an MDP and solves it with a risk-seeking MCTS.
result Our method outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks and achieves the most profitable results.
Two new deterministic offspring selection methods reduce statistical distance in SMC and pMCMC.
problem Improving the performance of resampling in SMC methods.
method Proposes two deterministic offspring selection methods to minimize KL divergence and TV distance.
result Our methods outperform or match state-of-the-art resampling schemes on benchmarks.
The game of Chinese Checkers is a challenging traditional board game of perfect information that differs from other traditional games in two main aspects: first, unlike Chess, all checkers remain indefinitely in the game and hence the branching factor of the search tree does not decrease as the game progresses; second,…
New algorithm identifies optimal subtrees in fixed-budget tree search.
problem Identifying optimal subtrees in fixed-budget Monte Carlo Tree Search.
method ε-agnostic algorithm for max-min action identification.
result Misidentification probability decays exponentially with sample size.
AI-driven framework optimizes MCMC-based preconditioners for faster linear system solving.
problem Slow convergence of Krylov subspace solvers for ill-conditioned matrices.
method Graph neural surrogate and Bayesian optimization for AI-tuned MCMC parameters.
result 50% reduction in iterations to convergence on unseen system.
We present an extension of Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) that strongly increases its efficiency for trees with asymmetry and/or loops. Asymmetric termination of search trees introduces a type of uncertainty for which the standard upper confidence bound (UCB) formula does not account. Our first algorithm (MCTS-T), whic…
Automates optimizer design for diverse tasks efficiently.
problem Scalability, generability, and sample efficiency in optimizer search.
method Re-arranged optimizer space into a super-tree, applying tree traversal methods.
result Discover optimizers with only 128 evaluations, surpassing human-designed and prior methods.
New algorithm reduces sample complexity for planning in MDPs.
problem Planning in MDPs with unknown transitions.
method MDP-GapE, a trajectory-based MCTS algorithm.
result Proves upper bound on sample complexity in terms of sub-optimality gaps.
TabNAS improves neural architecture search for tabular datasets by rejecting suboptimal architectures.
problem Finding optimal neural architectures for tabular datasets with resource constraints.
method Develops a reinforcement learning controller motivated by rejection sampling to handle resource constraints.
result TabNAS finds better models that obey resource constraints compared to previous methods.
The paper introduces new estimators for multivariate functions using Fourier methods.
problem Estimating multivariate functions like densities and regression functions.
method Monte Carlo estimators based on the Fourier integral theorem.
result Established rates of convergence for new estimators, often superior to existing methods.
New method uses hyperbolic space for faster phylogenetic tree inference.
problem Inefficient Euclidean-based phylogenetic inference in high dimensions.
method Developed novel hyperbolic extensions of sequential search algorithms and variational inference methods.
result Improved speed, scalability and performance in phylogenetic inference.
New algorithm reduces variance in Monte Carlo simulations using deep neural networks and policy gradients.
problem Reducing variance in Monte Carlo simulations for estimating function values.
method Optimal correlation search using deep neural networks and policy gradients.
result Optimal correlation function reduces variance by approximating and calibrating policy.
Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) methods are drawing great interest after yielding breakthrough results in computer Go. This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to MCTS that is inspired by distributionfree approaches such as UCT [13], yet significantly differs in important respects. The Bayesian framework allows potential…
BiDAG R package learns and samples Bayesian network structures efficiently.
problem Efficiently learning and sampling Bayesian network structures.
method Hybrid approach combining PC algorithm, iterative order MCMC, and partition MCMC.
result BiDAG can handle both discrete and continuous data.
Neural Architecture Search (NAS) has shown great success in automating the design of neural networks, but the prohibitive amount of computations behind current NAS methods requires further investigations in improving the sample efficiency and the network evaluation cost to get better results in a shorter time. In this …
HAVER improves error bounds for estimating the largest mean in machine learning tasks.
problem Estimating the largest mean among multiple distributions.
method Proposes HAVER, a novel algorithm for maximum mean estimation.
result HAVER achieves better error bounds than the oracle in many cases.
INT benchmark tests theorem proving agents' ability to generalize to unseen theorems.
problem Evaluating theorem proving agents' ability to generalize to unseen theorems.
method INT benchmark based on a theorem generation and proof procedure with adjustable knobs for measuring 6 types of generalization.
result MCTS can help agents prove new theorems.
We introduce an approximate search algorithm for fast maximum a posteriori probability estimation in probabilistic programs, which we call Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo (BaMC). Probabilistic programs represent probabilistic models with varying number of mutually dependent finite, countable, and continuous random variable…
This paper improves self-play learning in games by manipulating experience distributions.
problem Improving self-play learning in games through better experience sampling.
method Three approaches: weighted sampling, Prioritized Experience Replay, and diversifying trajectories.
result Major improvements in early training performance in some games, minor improvements overall.
Quantum circuit optimization speeds up financial derivatives pricing.
problem Efficiently pricing financial derivatives on quantum computers.
method Pretraining conditional parameterized circuits for state-dependent functions.
result Quantum circuit implementation of derivatives' payoff function is more efficient.
New algorithm improves materials discovery using max K-Armed Bandit.
problem Maximizing material breakthroughs in materials discovery.
method Proposed a search algorithm based on max K-Armed Bandit (MKB) for materials discovery.
result Stable performance in late search stages, outperforming other bandit algorithms.
Scalable method learns context-specific models for hundreds of variables.
problem Learning context-specific models for large numbers of variables.
method Order-based Markov chain Monte-Carlo search with context-specific sparsity assumption.
result Method scales to hundreds of variables and learns accurate models.