Paper improves VAEs using Monte Carlo methods.
problem Improving the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) for VAEs.
method Uses Monte Carlo techniques to improve ELBO, specifically Sequential Importance Sampling (SIS) with carefully chosen kernels.
result Demonstrates improved performance on various applications.
New MLMC method reduces evidence estimation cost.
problem Efficiently estimating model evidence in Bayesian inference.
method Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling for unbiased estimation.
result Significant computational savings in estimating model evidence.
Automated model selection using Bayesian quadrature improves efficiency.
problem Slow convergence and unreliability of Monte Carlo methods for model comparison.
method Automated algorithm maximizing mutual information between posterior probability and model likelihoods.
result More accurate model posterior estimates with fewer likelihood evaluations.
Paper proposes cross-coding to improve conditional inference in VAEs.
problem Challenges in conditional inference with VAEs, especially for arbitrary queries.
method Cross-coding to approximate latent distributions after conditioning.
result Cross-coding variations outperform Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
LPF provides formal guarantees for aggregating multi-evidence in probabilistic tasks.
problem Lack of formal guarantees for multi-evidence reasoning in AI.
method LPF uses variational autoencoders and Sum-Product Networks to aggregate evidence items.
result Proves multiple formal guarantees including calibration preservation and error decay.
We propose kernel sequential Monte Carlo (KSMC), a framework for sampling from static target densities. KSMC is a family of sequential Monte Carlo algorithms that are based on building emulator models of the current particle system in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We here focus on modelling nonlinear covariance s…
New method detects hidden market predictability despite anomalies.
problem Inference issues in predictive regressions with small violations.
method Novel testing framework resistant to violations of ideal assumptions.
result Large improvements in robust evidence of market predictability.
This work improves VAEs using MCMC methods for better variational bounds.
problem Improving the expressiveness of variational distributions in VAEs.
method Entropy-based adaptation for MALA/HMC chains to optimize tighter variational bounds.
result Higher held-out log-likelihoods and improved generative metrics.
VBMC combines variational inference and Bayesian quadrature for efficient posterior and model evidence estimation.
problem Efficient inference for models with expensive, black-box likelihoods.
method Combines variational inference with Gaussian-process based active-sampling Bayesian quadrature.
result Produces both a nonparametric approximation of the posterior and an approximate lower bound of the model evidence efficiently.
New particle filter estimates model evidence without bias.
problem Unbiased estimation of marginal likelihood for model comparison.
method Particle filter with rejection control.
result Unbiased estimation of marginal likelihood.
Gradient learning optimises MCMC proposal distributions.
problem Intractable targets in MCMC sampling.
method Gradient-based optimisation of proposal distributions using a maximum entropy regularised objective function.
result Our method can outperform traditional MCMC algorithms, including Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
Improves sampling efficiency for complex Bayesian models.
problem Inference challenges in hierarchical Gaussian-process models.
method Optimised Riemannian-manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RMHMC) with dynamic programming.
result Significant improvement in sampling efficiency and model evidence calculation.
Enhances option pricing for American-style options using JDOI method.
problem Pricing American-style options efficiently under stochastic volatility.
method Extends DOI variance reduction technique to Lévy dynamics, combining with LSMC.
result Strong variance reduction in option pricing compared to standard LSMC.
The κ-generalised distribution fits daily stock returns well.
problem Stock returns are often heavy-tailed, not normally distributed.
method Used the κ-generalised distribution with a Monte-Carlo goodness of fit test. result The κ-generalised distribution fits historic daily stock returns well for a significant proportion of analyzed stocks. A distributed method for Bayesian model choice using marginal likelihood and Monte Carlo sampling.
problem Bayesian model choice in large datasets with limited communication.
method Split data into subsets, locally compute model evidence, combine results using summary statistics.
result The method enables model choice in large datasets with speed-ups and theoretical error bounds.
QMC and GSA improve option pricing and risk measures efficiency.
problem Efficiently pricing and hedging complex financial instruments.
method Application of QMC and GSA techniques for financial instrument pricing and hedging, comparing MC vs QMC and analyzing greeks computation.
result QMC outperforms MC in most cases, especially in high-dimensional simulations, leading to faster and more stable convergence.
New method for Bayesian neural networks reduces inference time.
problem Efficient variational inference for Bayesian neural networks.
method Decomposing ReLU activations and introducing binary latent variables.
result Sampling-free variational inference yields competitive results.
Adaptive HMC improves sampling efficiency by optimizing mass matrix.
problem Inefficient HMC performance due to mass matrix choice.
method Gradient-based adaptation of mass matrix to maximize proposal entropy.
result Adaptation method outperforms HMC variants by optimizing mass matrix.
New method estimates Bayesian evidence more accurately and faster.
problem Estimating normalizing constants in Bayesian inference.
method Gaussianized Bridge Sampling (GBS) using posterior samples and Normalizing Flows.
result GBS is significantly faster and more accurate than existing methods.
New method for efficient online variational estimation in streaming data.
problem Efficiently estimating parameters and latent states in online parametric models.
method i.i.d. Monte Carlo sampling coupled with deep architecture.
result The method computes the evidence lower bound and its gradient efficiently.
New method improves inference in deep Gaussian processes.
problem Intractable exact inference in deep Gaussian processes.
method Stochastic Gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) with Moving Window MCEM.
result Significantly better predictions at lower computational cost.
A new Gibbs sampler method speeds up Bayesian inference.
problem Efficient sampling from complex posterior distributions.
method Recycling auxiliary samples within Gibbs estimators.
result Significant improvement in accuracy and computational efficiency.
A new method using mean shift clustering speeds up Bayesian evidence calculation.
problem Difficulty in Nested Sampling algorithm convergence and systematic errors.
method Mean shift cluster recognition method integrated into NestedFit.
result Significant reduction in computation time and uncertainty of Bayesian evidence.
We approximate differential entropy for efficient Bayesian experimental design.
problem Efficiently estimating expected information gain in large-scale inference problems.
method Approximate differential entropy using Monte Carlo or quasi-Monte Carlo surrogates.
result Our approach achieves comparable or better convergence rates than state-of-the-art methods.
New algorithms improve Bayesian computations for big data.
problem Bayesian computations are computationally expensive, especially with large data sets.
method Multilevel Stochastic Gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms.
result Achieves sublinear computational cost for prescribed relative RMSE.
Improved method for estimating derivatives of discontinuous functions using stochastic algorithmic differentiation and regression.
problem High Monte-Carlo error in finite difference approximation of discontinuous functions.
method Combining stochastic algorithmic differentiation and regression to estimate derivative of expectations of discontinuous functions.
result Reduction in Monte-Carlo error through decoupling integration of Dirac delta and conditional expectation.
Tests for long memory and multifractality show exchange rates are not multifractal.
problem Testing for long memory and multifractality in exchange rate data.
method Joint estimation of long memory and multifractality using Monte Carlo techniques.
result No evidence of long memory in exchange rate data.
S-VBMC improves VBMC's exploration of complex posterior distributions.
problem Efficient inference for computationally expensive models with complex posterior distributions.
method Stacking multiple independent VBMC runs to create a robust global posterior approximation.
result Significant improvements in posterior approximation quality across various applications.
VBMC+VIQR outperforms noisy models in Bayesian inference.
problem Bayesian inference with noisy likelihoods in complex models.
method Gaussian process surrogates, expected information gain, variational interquantile range.
result VBMC+VIQR achieves state-of-the-art performance in noisy inference benchmarks.
New methods for estimating nested expectations in machine learning.
problem Nested expectations in machine learning and statistics.
method Investigation and analysis of statistical implications of nesting Monte Carlo estimators.
result Established conditions for convergence of nested MC estimators and derived corresponding rates.
New algorithms improve MCMC efficiency for complex distributions.
problem High variance and low effective sample size in MCMC samplers.
method Antithetic Riemannian Manifold and Quantum-Inspired Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
result Improved effective sample size and variance reduction.
Combines normalizing flows and quasi-Monte Carlo for improved numerical integration.
problem Improving the efficiency of numerical integration methods.
method Uses normalizing flows to approximate distributions and quasi-Monte Carlo for sampling.
result Demonstrates an estimator with significantly lower variance.
This paper analyzes the convergence of dynamic HMC and NUTS methods.
problem Theoretical understanding of dynamic HMC and NUTS convergence.
method General class of MCMC algorithms, NUTS as a particular case, geometric ergodicity, irreducibility.
result NUTS is geometrically ergodic under certain conditions and ergodic without bounded stepsize.
Speeds up complex portfolio exposure calculations.
problem Calculating exposure of portfolios with exotic derivatives.
method Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) technique.
result Significantly reduces computation time for nested Monte Carlo.
GPU computing has become popular in computational finance and many financial institutions are moving their CPU based applications to the GPU platform. Since most Monte Carlo algorithms are embarrassingly parallel, they benefit greatly from parallel implementations, and consequently Monte Carlo has become a focal point …
Paper introduces a new variational method for Rényi divergences.
problem Variational inference for Rényi divergences.
method Reparameterization trick, Monte Carlo approximation, stochastic optimization.
result Unified framework for optimization of variational methods.
Estimates log marginal likelihood using multilevel Monte Carlo.
problem Estimating log marginal likelihood accurately.
method Unbiased multilevel Monte Carlo estimator.
result Validates application in variational Bayes.
A new method for efficient inference in VAEs using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
problem Efficient inference in latent variable models with VAEs.
method Optimal selection of reverse kernels in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for low-variance unbiased ELBO estimation.
result Development of a Hamiltonian Variational Auto-Encoder (HVAE) using the reparameterization trick.
SLMC improves sampling efficiency for high-dimensional distributions.
problem Sampling from high-dimensional distributions is computationally challenging.
method SLMC projects Langevin updates onto subsampled eigenblocks of a time-varying preconditioner.
result SLMC offers superior adaptability and computational efficiency compared to traditional methods.
New sampling strategy improves TR algorithms for stochastic optimization.
problem Derivative-free stochastic optimization with Monte Carlo estimates.
method Stratified adaptive sampling to optimize MC sample size.
result Reduced sample complexity and superior efficiency confirmed.
Develops a new unsupervised clustering method using Variational Information Bottleneck and Gaussian Mixture Model.
problem Unsupervised clustering of unlabeled data.
method Combines Variational Information Bottleneck and Gaussian Mixture Model in a deep neural network framework.
result Derives a new bound on the cost function and provides an algorithm for efficient computation.
Recommender systems improve quantum Monte Carlo simulations.
problem Efficiency of quantum Monte Carlo methods without sacrificing accuracy.
method Quantum to classical mapping and molecular simulation techniques.
result Classical molecular gas model reproduces quantum distributions efficiently.
Improved Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference reduces variance and improves performance.
problem Efficiently sampling from posterior distributions in Bayesian inference with stochastic gradients.
method Variance reduction techniques applied to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
result Theoretical and experimental improvements in convergence and performance compared to variance-reduced Langevin dynamics.
Bayesian neural networks' performance varies with prior choice, affecting their ability to identify unknowns.
problem The impact of prior choice on Bayesian neural networks' ability to identify unknowns.
method Evaluation of different prior distributions on classification tasks using BNNs and NNs with Monte Carlo dropout.
result Prior choice significantly impacts BNNs' ability to identify unknowns, affecting true and false positive rates.
This study compares MC and QMC methods for derivative pricing, showing QMC's superior convergence rates.
problem Improving derivative pricing accuracy and efficiency in high-dimensional settings.
method Compared Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo techniques, focusing on convergence rates and low-discrepancy sequences.
result Quasi-Monte Carlo methods achieve superior convergence rates and reduce root mean square error in derivative pricing.
A new eigenvalue-based method speeds up Monte Carlo simulations.
problem Reducing the number of paths needed for accurate Monte Carlo simulations.
method Eigenvalue-based approximation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo.
result Significant variance reduction and comparable results to traditional Monte Carlo.
SMC methods improve option pricing accuracy.
problem Approximating option prices via Monte Carlo methods.
method Constructing a sequence of artificial target densities and weighting functions.
result Significant gains in option pricing accuracy achieved.
New methods improve efficiency of sampling algorithms for complex systems.
problem Efficiently sampling from complex, high-dimensional probability distributions.
method Randomized Runge-Kutta-Nyström methods tailored for Hamiltonian flows.
result Quantitative 5/2-order L2-accuracy in approximating Hamiltonian flows.