Inference for normal and Monte Carlo distributions using minimum relative entropy.
problem Inference from partial information on expectations and covariances.
method Minimum relative entropy sub-manifolds, analytical formulas, Monte Carlo simulations.
result Improved numerical implementation for inference from partial information.
ParaMonte simplifies Monte Carlo simulations for various scientific fields.
problem Efficiently performing Monte Carlo simulations for complex models.
method Unified, high-performance, parallelized library for C, C++, Fortran.
result Automates and streamlines Monte Carlo sampling for arbitrary-dimensional functions.
New insights into variational inference using Monte Carlo estimates.
problem Improving variational bounds in latent variable models.
method Analyzing properties of Monte Carlo estimates and their impact on variational gaps.
result Negative correlation reduces variational gaps, contrary to intuition.
VCSMC improves efficiency in Bayesian phylogenetic inference.
problem Inefficient exploration of phylogenetic state space.
method Variational Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (VCSMC) and nested CSMC.
result VCSMC and VNCSMC explore higher probability spaces efficiently.
CRAFT improves on existing methods for sampling complex distributions.
problem Sampling from complex probability distributions.
method Combines SMC with variational inference using normalizing flows.
result Improves on Annealed Flow Transport Monte Carlo and MCMC-based Stochastic Normalizing Flows.
Gradient-based Monte Carlo sampling algorithms, like Langevin dynamics and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, are important methods for Bayesian inference. In large-scale settings, full-gradients are not affordable and thus stochastic gradients evaluated on mini-batches are used as a replacement. In order to reduce the high vari…
We present a new method for conducting Monte Carlo inference in graphical models which combines explicit search with generalized importance sampling. The idea is to reduce the variance of importance sampling by searching for significant points in the target distribution. We prove that it is possible to introduce search…
Bayesian inference for expensive likelihoods using Langevin Monte Carlo with NF.
problem Sampling from complex posterior distributions with expensive likelihoods.
method Deterministic Langevin equation with NF gradient, Metropolis-Hastings updates.
result Competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Study Langevin Monte Carlo for sampling non-log-concave distributions.
problem Sampling from non-log-concave distributions, especially Gaussian mixtures.
method Discretizations of overdamped Langevin diffusions.
result Numerical simulations compare Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms' performance.
Variational Inference shows promise for Bayesian GARCH model estimation.
problem Bayesian estimation of GARCH-family models using Monte Carlo sampling.
method Variational Inference as an alternative to Monte Carlo sampling.
result Variational Inference is a reliable and competitive method for Bayesian learning in GARCH-like models.
We develop an HMC algorithm to easily marginalize random effects in LMMs.
problem Bayesian inference in LMMs is challenging, especially marginalizing random effects.
method Developed an HMC algorithm to marginalize random effects in LMMs efficiently.
result Marginalization is always beneficial when applicable and improves various models, especially cognitive science models.
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo on ReLU networks is inefficient due to large local error.
problem Inefficiency of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo on ReLU neural networks.
method Analysis of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with leapfrog integrator for Bayesian neural network inference.
result Leapfrog HMC for ReLU networks has a large local error rate of Ω(ε), leading to inefficiency. New algorithms improve MCMC efficiency for complex distributions.
problem High variance and low effective sample size in MCMC samplers.
method Antithetic Riemannian Manifold and Quantum-Inspired Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
result Improved effective sample size and variance reduction.
New method combines neural networks with Monte Carlo for complex system reliability.
problem Estimating small failure probabilities in complex systems.
method Subset Simulation with Hamiltonian Neural Networks.
result High acceptance rates and computational efficiency in low-probability regions.
New MCMC methods improve efficiency for large network inference.
problem Efficiency of Metropolis within Gibbs for large networks.
method Combination of split Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Firefly Monte Carlo.
result New methods outperform Metropolis within Gibbs on synthetic and real networks.
Bayesian inference using stochastic neural networks ensembles.
problem Approximating Bayesian posterior distributions.
method Formulate stochastic ensembles of neural networks, train with variational inference, and evaluate using Monte Carlo dropout.
result Stochastic ensembles provide more accurate posterior estimates than other methods.
New method corrects bias in stochastic gradient samplers.
problem Bias in stochastic gradient samplers.
method Gradient-Guided Monte Carlo with stochastic gradients.
result Corrected sampler yields nonzero acceptance probabilities.
Many machine learning problems involve Monte Carlo gradient estimators. As a prominent example, we focus on Monte Carlo variational inference (MCVI) in this paper. The performance of MCVI crucially depends on the variance of its stochastic gradients. We propose variance reduction by means of Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) sam…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are generally regarded as the gold standard technique for Bayesian inference. They are theoretically well-understood and conceptually simple to apply in practice. The drawback of MCMC is that in general performing exact inference requires all of the data to be processed at eac…
Improves sampling efficiency for complex Bayesian models.
problem Inference challenges in hierarchical Gaussian-process models.
method Optimised Riemannian-manifold Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (RMHMC) with dynamic programming.
result Significant improvement in sampling efficiency and model evidence calculation.
Bayesian framework for image inversion using regularization by denoising.
problem Image inversion and regularization in imaging tasks.
method Bayesian approach with Langevin-within-split Gibbs sampling.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method through numerical experiments.
This work investigates a mixture of LMC and RMHMC with MMALA for geometric ergodicity.
problem Lack of geometric ergodicity study in Riemannian manifold and Lagrangian Monte Carlo methods.
method Investigates a mixture of LMC and RMHMC with MMALA to achieve geometric ergodicity.
result Demonstrates geometric ergodicity in the mixture of LMC and RMHMC with MMALA.
ChEES-HMC improves SMC samplers' efficiency and speed.
problem Efficiently sampling from complex posterior distributions.
method Incorporating ChEES-HMC into SMC samplers.
result ChEES-HMC outperforms NUTS in speed and efficiency.
New method uses hyperbolic space for faster phylogenetic tree inference.
problem Inefficient Euclidean-based phylogenetic inference in high dimensions.
method Developed novel hyperbolic extensions of sequential search algorithms and variational inference methods.
result Improved speed, scalability and performance in phylogenetic inference.
New method uses symmetric splitting for efficient HMC inference in large neural networks.
problem Efficient inference for Bayesian neural networks with large datasets.
method Introduces a symmetric integration scheme for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) that does not rely on stochastic gradients.
result Symmetric splitting leads to more efficient HMC inference over large data sets.
ParaMonte::Python streamlines Bayesian data analysis with fast Monte Carlo and MCMC routines.
problem Efficiently sampling posterior distributions in Bayesian modeling and data science.
method Serial and MPI-parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) routines.
result Automated model calibration and uncertainty quantification in Bayesian analysis.
A new variational method for SSMs improves inference efficiency.
problem Hard variational inference for state space models.
method Proposes variational marginal particle filter (VMPF) based on Rao-Blackwellization.
result VMPF provides tighter variational bounds and sometimes benefits from unbiased reparameterization.
SwISS improves scalability of Bayesian inference for large datasets.
problem Scalability issues in Bayesian inference for large datasets.
method Divide-and-conquer approach with SwISS for recombining sub-posterior samples.
result SwISS accurately approximates the original posterior distribution.
This paper develops scalable control variates for Monte Carlo methods using stochastic optimization.
problem Reducing variance in Monte Carlo estimators for large-scale problems.
method Control variates based on Stein operators, optimized through stochastic optimization.
result Novel theoretical results and empirical validations show effective variance reduction.
Many recent advances in large scale probabilistic inference rely on variational methods. The success of variational approaches depends on (i) formulating a flexible parametric family of distributions, and (ii) optimizing the parameters to find the member of this family that most closely approximates the exact posterior…
Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases that are hard to quantify. The latter enjoy asymptotic consistency, but can suffer …
Paper advances black-box VI using flows and Monte-Carlo methods.
problem Improving automatic posterior inference in black-box VI.
method Combines normalizing flows, Monte-Carlo methods, and optimization considerations.
result Significant improvement in state-of-the-art variational inference.
New method uses Fokker-Planck equation for sampling and inference.
problem Intractability of evaluating probability density in practical applications.
method Reformulates Fokker-Planck equation as a particle flow method, using velocity field.
result Turns intractable density evaluation into an advantage for variational inference, kernel mean embeddings, and sequential Monte Carlo.
Paper introduces a diagnostic for approximate inference methods.
problem Estimating errors in probabilistic inference algorithms, especially for approximate methods.
method Repeatedly simulate datasets from the prior and perform inference on each, estimating a symmetric KL-divergence.
result A diagnostic for approximate inference methods can be estimated using symmetric KL-divergence.
Compressed Monte Carlo improves efficiency in Bayesian inference.
problem Efficiently approximating posterior distributions in Bayesian models.
method Introduces Compressed Monte Carlo (C-MC) to compress statistical information.
result C-MC schemes outperform traditional methods in particle filtering and adaptive IS algorithms.
NP-HMC extends HMC for nonparametric models in probabilistic programming.
problem Inference for nonparametric models in probabilistic programming.
method Introduces NP-HMC, a generalization of HMC for nonparametric models using tree representable functions.
result Empirically shows significant performance improvements over existing approaches.
We introduce a new approach for amortizing inference in directed graphical models by learning heuristic approximations to stochastic inverses, designed specifically for use as proposal distributions in sequential Monte Carlo methods. We describe a procedure for constructing and learning a structured neural network whic…
New MCFOs improve learning generative models and time series inference.
problem Challenges in learning generative models and inferring latent trajectories for time series.
method Proposed Monte Carlo filtering objectives (MCFOs) for joint learning and adaptive proposals.
result MCFOs lead to efficient and stable model learning and explain data well.
Most of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms in existing probabilistic programming systems suboptimally use only model priors as proposal distributions. In this work, we describe an approach for training a discriminative model, namely a neural network, in order to approximate the …
Corrects errors in ILA for Bayesian inference in LGMs.
problem Error in ILA for non-Gaussian likelihoods in LGMs.
method Importance sampling scheme to correct ILA errors.
result Corrected posterior converges to the true posterior with increased samples.
Enhances SBI accuracy with multilevel Monte Carlo for expensive simulators.
problem Limited accuracy in SBI due to expensive simulators.
method Multilevel Monte Carlo techniques for cost-effective SBI.
result Significant enhancement in SBI accuracy with fixed computational budget.
YOASOVI improves stochastic VI for large models with fast, self-correcting sampling.
problem Efficiently performing stochastic Variational Inference on large Bayesian models.
method YOASOVI uses acceptance sampling to draw only one sample per iteration, improving convergence speed and accuracy.
result YOASOVI converges faster and more accurately than regular Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods.
Enhances SMC² with Hessian info for more efficient posterior approximation.
problem Improving accuracy and efficiency in Bayesian inference.
method Integrates second-order information (Hessian) into SMC²'s proposal distribution.
result Second-order proposals lead to more accurate posterior approximations and better step-size selection.
CMCD sampler connects transport and variational inference for efficient sampling.
problem Efficient sampling and generative modeling in Bayesian computation.
method Developed a principled framework using divergences on path space, CMCD sampler with adaptive dynamics.
result CMCD sampler outperforms competing approaches across various experiments.
In this paper, we consider the problem of assessing the adversarial robustness of deep neural network models under both Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Bayesian Dark Knowledge (BDK) inference approximations. We characterize the robustness of each method to two types of adversarial attacks: the fast gradient sign me…
Unified framework for MCMC and machine learning problems.
problem Intersection of MCMC and machine learning problems.
method Unified framework integrating various MCMC and machine learning techniques.
result Translation and generalization of theory and methods.
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the main workhorses of probabilistic inference, but it is notoriously hard to measure the quality of approximate posterior samples. This challenge is particularly salient in black box inference methods, which can hide details and obscure inference failures. In this work, we ext…
This paper offers a simple method for Bayesian regression with unknown transformations.
problem Joint inference of unknown transformations and model parameters in Bayesian regression is computationally inefficient and cumbersome.
method The paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric model via the Bayesian bootstrap to directly target the posterior distribution of the transformation.
result The approach delivers joint posterior consistency and efficient Monte Carlo inference for the transformation and all parameters.