Paper uses Monte Carlo simulations to predict retirement portfolios.
problem Retirement financial planning uncertainty.
method Monte Carlo simulations incorporating inflation, interest rates, etc.
result Probabilistic prediction of IRA and 401(k) values.
New algorithms improve MCMC efficiency for complex distributions.
problem High variance and low effective sample size in MCMC samplers.
method Antithetic Riemannian Manifold and Quantum-Inspired Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
result Improved effective sample size and variance reduction.
The paper predicts cryptocurrency prices using a path-dependent Monte Carlo simulation.
problem Forecasting cryptocurrency prices with volatility and jumps.
method Merton's jump diffusion model with machine learning, traditional, and statistical methods.
result Introduced a path-dependent Monte Carlo simulation for cryptocurrency price prediction.
Importance weighting is a general way to adjust Monte Carlo integration to account for draws from the wrong distribution, but the resulting estimate can be highly variable when the importance ratios have a heavy right tail. This routinely occurs when there are aspects of the target distribution that are not well captur…
We describe an embarrassingly parallel, anytime Monte Carlo method for likelihood-free models. The algorithm starts with the view that the stochasticity of the pseudo-samples generated by the simulator can be controlled externally by a vector of random numbers u, in such a way that the outcome, knowing u, is determinis…
The sBIC outperforms other model selection criteria in LDA topic modeling.
problem Selecting the optimal number of topics in Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) models.
method Monte Carlo simulations comparing sBIC to other criteria.
result sBIC is superior for choosing the number of topics in LDA models.
Enhances deep learning models for anomaly detection in time series data.
problem Anomalies in time series data corrupt performance of models.
method Monte Carlo EM for inferring anomaly indicators during training.
result Improves model performance on nominal data and anomalous points.
A method for predicting profit and loss distributions of complex financial portfolios using neural networks.
problem Predicting profit and loss distributions for portfolios with non-linear and path-dependent derivatives.
method Least Square Monte Carlo algorithm with a feed forward neural network for interpolation of continuation values.
result Flexible and automatic accounting of multiple assets in financial portfolios.
A new method estimates corporate bond defaults in financial networks efficiently.
problem Challenges in valuing corporate bonds in interconnected financial systems.
method Bi-Level Importance Sampling with Splitting
result The method efficiently estimates rare default events in financial networks.
Combines normalizing flows and quasi-Monte Carlo for improved numerical integration.
problem Improving the efficiency of numerical integration methods.
method Uses normalizing flows to approximate distributions and quasi-Monte Carlo for sampling.
result Demonstrates an estimator with significantly lower variance.
New method for accurate Bayesian inference in GLMMs for large-scale data.
problem Challenges in scalable Bayesian inference for GLMMs due to intractable marginal likelihood and high computational cost.
method Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) algorithm using Fisher's identity for gradient estimation.
result Accurate posterior inference in large-sample settings with properly calibrated uncertainty.
Speeds up complex portfolio exposure calculations.
problem Calculating exposure of portfolios with exotic derivatives.
method Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) technique.
result Significantly reduces computation time for nested Monte Carlo.
GPU computing has become popular in computational finance and many financial institutions are moving their CPU based applications to the GPU platform. Since most Monte Carlo algorithms are embarrassingly parallel, they benefit greatly from parallel implementations, and consequently Monte Carlo has become a focal point …
Enhances uncertainty estimation in medical image segmentation.
problem Frequency-related noise in medical imaging leads to biased uncertainty estimates.
method Extends MC-Dropout to the frequency domain for better uncertainty estimation.
result MC-Frequency Dropout improves calibration and uncertainty in semantic segmentation.
Importance sampling has been known as a powerful tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimator for rare event simulation. Based on the criterion of minimizing the variance of Monte Carlo estimator within a parametric family, we propose a general account for finding the optimal tilting measure. To this end, when …
Bayesian method maps high-dimensional inputs to lower dimensions for efficient multi-fidelity Gaussian Process modeling.
problem Efficiently modeling high-dimensional inputs with low-dimensional latent variables for multi-fidelity Gaussian Processes.
method Bayesian approach with orthonormal projection matrix inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Geodesic Monte Carlo sampling.
result Optimal transformations identified that improve computational efficiency in multi-fidelity Gaussian Process modeling.
Estimates log marginal likelihood using multilevel Monte Carlo.
problem Estimating log marginal likelihood accurately.
method Unbiased multilevel Monte Carlo estimator.
result Validates application in variational Bayes.
Recently, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) methods have been proposed for scaling up Monte Carlo computations to large data problems. Whilst these approaches have proven useful in many applications, vanilla SG-MCMC might suffer from poor mixing rates when random variables exhibit strong couplings …
SLMC improves sampling efficiency for high-dimensional distributions.
problem Sampling from high-dimensional distributions is computationally challenging.
method SLMC projects Langevin updates onto subsampled eigenblocks of a time-varying preconditioner.
result SLMC offers superior adaptability and computational efficiency compared to traditional methods.
Novel Bayesian framework for Poisson inverse problems using Bregman geometry.
problem Solving Poisson inverse problems with non-Euclidean geometry and positivity constraints.
method Develops a Monte Carlo sampling algorithm that accounts for Bregman geometry, data augmentations, and conditional conjugacy properties.
result Efficient sampling via Gibbs steps and Hessian Riemannian Langevin Monte Carlo (HRLMC) for positivity constraints.
The paper analyzes portfolio management in the Heston model, proposing new strategies.
problem Investment performance influenced by asset diversity and cash inclusion.
method Monte Carlo simulations in the Heston model, MACD and RSI technical analysis.
result New portfolio management strategies based on MACD and RSI.
To improve the efficiency of Monte Carlo estimation, practitioners are turning to biased Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures that trade off asymptotic exactness for computational speed. The reasoning is sound: a reduction in variance due to more rapid sampling can outweigh the bias introduced. However, the inexactness …
This study compares MC and QMC methods for derivative pricing, showing QMC's superior convergence rates.
problem Improving derivative pricing accuracy and efficiency in high-dimensional settings.
method Compared Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo techniques, focusing on convergence rates and low-discrepancy sequences.
result Quasi-Monte Carlo methods achieve superior convergence rates and reduce root mean square error in derivative pricing.
A new eigenvalue-based method speeds up Monte Carlo simulations.
problem Reducing the number of paths needed for accurate Monte Carlo simulations.
method Eigenvalue-based approximation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo.
result Significant variance reduction and comparable results to traditional Monte Carlo.
New methods improve efficiency of sampling algorithms for complex systems.
problem Efficiently sampling from complex, high-dimensional probability distributions.
method Randomized Runge-Kutta-Nyström methods tailored for Hamiltonian flows.
result Quantitative 5/2-order L2-accuracy in approximating Hamiltonian flows. Many kinds of data can be represented as a network or graph. It is crucial to infer the latent structure underlying such a network and to predict unobserved links in the network. Mixed Membership Stochastic Blockmodel (MMSB) is a promising model for network data. Latent variables and unknown parameters in MMSB have bee…
New method reduces Monte Carlo error in option pricing and Greeks estimation.
problem Reducing Monte Carlo error in option pricing and Greeks estimation.
method Denoised Monte Carlo technique for LSV models.
result Reduces Monte Carlo error by an order of magnitude.
ParaMonte::Python streamlines Bayesian data analysis with fast Monte Carlo and MCMC routines.
problem Efficiently sampling posterior distributions in Bayesian modeling and data science.
method Serial and MPI-parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) routines.
result Automated model calibration and uncertainty quantification in Bayesian analysis.
In this paper, we discuss the application of quasi-Monte Carlo methods to the Heston model. We base our algorithms on the Broadie-Kaya algorithm, an exact simulation scheme for the Heston model. As the joint transition densities are not available in closed-form, the Linear Transformation method due to Imai and Tan, a p…
We consider the problem of simulating loss probabilities and conditional excesses for linear asset portfolios under the t-copula model. Although in the literature on market risk management there are papers proposing efficient variance reduction methods for Monte Carlo simulation of portfolio market risk, there is no pa…
Deep learning enhances Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for sampling gauge field configurations.
problem Sampling from complex gauge field topologies efficiently.
method Stacked neural networks to generalize Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
result Significantly reduces computational cost for generating gauge field configurations.
AFT combines AIS, SMC, and NFs for better Monte Carlo estimates.
problem Estimating normalizing constants of complex probability distributions.
method Annealed Flow Transport (AFT) integrates AIS, SMC, and normalizing flows.
result AFT improves Monte Carlo estimates of normalizing constants and expectations.
New algorithms improve sampling from complex distributions.
problem Sampling from complex probability distributions efficiently.
method Regime-switching Langevin dynamics and Monte Carlo algorithms.
result Convergence guarantees and iteration complexities provided.
GPry accelerates Bayesian inference for non-Gaussian posteriors.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference for complex models with moderate parameters.
method Generative Gaussian Process surrogate model with SVM classifier, active learning.
result Significant reduction in inference time and computational cost.
Improves Monte-Carlo simulations for consistent mean and variance.
problem Artificial randomness in running mean calculations.
method Combining running mean and variance with accurate summing.
result Increased accuracy and robustness of Monte-Carlo estimates.
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo converges to target distributions under mild conditions.
problem Establishing convergence of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithms.
method Analyzing Lq convergence for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo under mild conditions. result Outputs converge to target distributions under specified conditions.
This paper extends AD techniques to Monte Carlo processes for efficient derivative calculation.
problem Obtaining derivatives of expectation values in Monte Carlo processes.
method Two approaches: reweighting and Hamiltonian extension of HMC.
result Hamiltonian approach as a change of variables simplifies variance reduction.
New method combines Monte Carlo and tensor networks for solving complex equations.
problem Solving high-dimensional partial differential equations efficiently.
method Uses Monte Carlo simulations and tensor train sketching for updates and re-estimations.
result Demonstrates versatility and efficacy in solving specific equations.
Pricing options is an important problem in financial engineering. In many scenarios of practical interest, financial option prices associated to an underlying asset reduces to computing an expectation w.r.t.~a diffusion process. In general, these expectations cannot be calculated analytically, and one way to approximat…
ParaMonte simplifies Monte Carlo simulations for various scientific fields.
problem Efficiently performing Monte Carlo simulations for complex models.
method Unified, high-performance, parallelized library for C, C++, Fortran.
result Automates and streamlines Monte Carlo sampling for arbitrary-dimensional functions.
The paper improves Monte Carlo methods for optimization problems.
problem Efficiently solving optimization problems with biased Monte Carlo estimators.
method Introduces Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) within Sample Average Approximation (SAA).
result Establishes uniform convergence and sample complexity for MLMC in SAA.
Bayesian calibration speeds up ABM for pandemic modeling.
problem Calibrating stochastic ABMs for accurate pandemic predictions is computationally intensive.
method Random forest surrogate modeling for accelerated ABM evaluation.
result Improved predictive performance with random forest calibration compared to previous methods.
New Langevin Monte Carlo algorithms for sampling from nonsmooth distributions.
problem Sampling from distributions with nonsmooth convex composite potentials.
method Leveraging Bregman--Moreau envelopes and proximal operators in mirror descent.
result Efficiency in sampling from nonsmooth distributions, extending existing methods.
Study compares MC and QMC methods for pricing and risk analysis in a hyperbolic local volatility model.
problem Derivative pricing and risk analysis in a hyperbolic local volatility model.
method Application of Monte Carlo and Quasi Monte Carlo methods for pricing and risk analysis.
result Quasi Monte Carlo methods show superior performance in high-dimensional integration for derivative pricing and risk analysis.
Developed scalable Monte Carlo method for VIX option pricing.
problem VIX option pricing in stochastic Volterra rough volatility models with non-Markovian vol-of-vol.
method Infinite dimensional Markovian representation to devise scalable least squares Monte Carlo.
result Efficient VIX option pricing method for generalized models.
CRAFT improves on existing methods for sampling complex distributions.
problem Sampling from complex probability distributions.
method Combines SMC with variational inference using normalizing flows.
result Improves on Annealed Flow Transport Monte Carlo and MCMC-based Stochastic Normalizing Flows.
Develops a multilevel Monte Carlo framework with dropout for efficient uncertainty quantification.
problem Efficiently quantify uncertainty in complex models using dropout.
method Integrates multilevel Monte Carlo with Monte Carlo dropout, creating coupled estimators to reduce variance.
result Demonstrates significant variance reduction and efficiency gains over single-level Monte Carlo dropout.
New insights into variational inference using Monte Carlo estimates.
problem Improving variational bounds in latent variable models.
method Analyzing properties of Monte Carlo estimates and their impact on variational gaps.
result Negative correlation reduces variational gaps, contrary to intuition.