A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We propose minimum regret search (MRS), a novel acquisition function for Bayesian optimization. MRS bears similarities with information-theoretic approaches such as entropy search (ES). However, while ES aims in each query at maximizing the information gain with respect to the global maximum, MRS aims at minimizing the…
Study on Bayesian reinforcement learning performance bounds.
problem Achieving optimal performance in model-based Bayesian reinforcement learning.
method Defining minimum Bayesian regret, deriving upper bounds using relative entropy and Wasserstein distance, and applying these to specific MDP cases.
result Upper bounds on minimum Bayesian regret for MDPs, including specific cases like MAB and online optimization with partial feedback.
Influence maximization, adaptive routing, and dynamic spectrum allocation all require choosing the right action from a large set of alternatives. Thanks to the advances in combinatorial optimization, these and many similar problems can be efficiently solved given an environment with known stochasticity. In this paper, …
We develop the first Bayesian Optimization algorithm, BLOSSOM, which selects between multiple alternative acquisition functions and traditional local optimization at each step. This is combined with a novel stopping condition based on expected regret. This pairing allows us to obtain the best characteristics of both lo…
The study analyzes how covariance estimation errors affect the global minimum-variance portfolio under heavy-tailed distributions.
problem The impact of covariance estimation errors on the global minimum-variance portfolio under heavy-tailed distributions.
method Characterization of covariance-estimation error's effect on GMVP suboptimality, derivation of regret identity and bound, application to heavy-tailed returns.
result The decision geometry of GMVP regret is invariant to a (p-1)-dimensional projection of the error matrix, with invariance to the covariance-scale direction as an exact special case.
The normalized maximized likelihood (NML) provides the minimax regret solution in universal data compression, gambling, and prediction, and it plays an essential role in the minimum description length (MDL) method of statistical modeling and estimation. Here we show that the normalized maximum likelihood has a Bayes-li…
This paper analyzes regret bounds for Gaussian process Thompson sampling.
problem Analyzing the performance of Gaussian process Thompson sampling (GP-TS) in Bayesian optimization.
method The paper derives several regret bounds for GP-TS, including a lower bound, upper bounds on the second moment of cumulative regret, expected lenient regret, and improved cumulative regret.
result The paper provides improved regret upper bounds for GP-TS, showing that it suffers from a polynomial dependence on 1/δ with probability δ.
This paper improves Bayesian optimization methods with tighter regret bounds and practical solutions.
problem Improving Bayesian optimization methods with tighter regret bounds and practical solutions.
method The paper analyzes and compares different acquisition functions (GP-UCB, TS, PIMS) to achieve tighter Bayesian cumulative regret bounds and address practical issues.
result PIMS achieves the tighter BCR bound and avoids hyperparameter tuning, unlike GP-UCB and TS.
We study the K-armed dueling bandit problem, a variation of the standard stochastic bandit problem where the feedback is limited to relative comparisons of a pair of arms. We introduce a tight asymptotic regret lower bound that is based on the information divergence. An algorithm that is inspired by the Deterministic…
We prove a new minimax theorem connecting the worst-case Bayesian regret and minimax regret under partial monitoring with no assumptions on the space of signals or decisions of the adversary. We then generalise the information-theoretic tools of Russo and Van Roy (2016) for proving Bayesian regret bounds and combine th…
The paper addresses frequentist regret of Linear Thompson Sampling in stochastic linear bandits.
problem The frequentist regret of Linear Thompson Sampling (LinTS) is worse than its Bayesian counterpart.
method The paper proves the fundamental nature of the frequentist regret bound for LinTS and proposes a data-driven version of LinTS to achieve minimax optimal frequentist regret.
result The frequentist regret bound for LinTS is O(ddT), which is the best possible under certain conditions.
We present two alternative ways to apply PAC-Bayesian analysis to sequences of dependent random variables. The first is based on a new lemma that enables to bound expectations of convex functions of certain dependent random variables by expectations of the same functions of independent Bernoulli random variables. This …
The paper explores how over-parameterized linear regression models generalize without violating learning theory principles.
problem Understanding how over-parameterized linear regression models generalize without violating learning theory principles.
method The paper uses the predictive normalized maximum likelihood (pNML) learner to investigate the minimum norm solution of over-parameterized linear regression models.
result The model generalizes well when the test sample lies in a subspace spanned by eigenvectors associated with large eigenvalues of the training data.