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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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124248372496 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for MDP estimation

The paper addresses statistical estimation in MDPs with confounders using instrumental variables.

problem Statistical estimation of value functions in MDPs with unobservable confounders.
method Two-stage estimator based on instrumental variables for confounded linear MDPs.
result Established statistical properties of the two-stage estimator, including error bounds and asymptotic normality.

New method for estimating and optimizing MDPs without stationarity.

problem Challenges in offline contextual MDP estimation without stationarity.
method Introduces a new adaptive estimation and cost optimization approach for contextual MDPs.
result First robust, theoretically backed method for offline contextual MDP estimation.

We decode latent states in Block MDPs and learn near-optimal policies.

problem Model estimation and reward-free learning in Block MDPs.
method Information-theoretical lower bound and efficient model estimation algorithm.
result Our algorithm approaches the information-theoretical limit for latent state decoding and converges to optimal policies.

New method removes oracle and reduces memory usage for robust MDPs.

problem Applying robust MDPs in practice due to model estimation and oracle requirements.
method Transformed robust MDPs into an alternative form allowing stochastic gradient methods and model-free approach.
result Sample-efficient algorithm with lower storage requirement and no oracle.

We study the problem of off-policy policy evaluation (OPPE) in RL. In contrast to prior work, we consider how to estimate both the individual policy value and average policy value accurately. We draw inspiration from recent work in causal reasoning, and propose a new finite sample generalization error bound for value e…

2018-05-23abs ↗pdf ↗

New RL algorithm achieves nearly optimal performance for linear MDPs.

problem Optimal reinforcement learning for episodic linear MDPs.
method Weighted linear regression with variance estimator and rare-switching policy.
result Achieves nearly minimax optimal regret ildeO(dH3K) ilde O(d\sqrt{H^3K}).

Efficient RL for linear MDPs with unknown transitions.

problem Long planning horizons and unknown state transitions in linear mixture MDPs.
method Horizon-free algorithm using weighted least squares with variance and uncertainty awareness.
result Achieves optimal regret up to logarithmic factors.

Algorithm learns mixtures of Markov chains and MDPs from short trajectories.

problem Learning mixtures of Markov chains and MDPs from short unlabeled trajectories.
method Subspace estimation, spectral clustering, EM algorithm, model estimation, classification.
result 96.6% average accuracy on a mixture of two MDPs in gridworld, outperforming EM algorithm with random initialization.

A new parallel algorithm for learning optimal policies in MDPs with low communication costs.

problem Learning optimal policies for infinite-horizon MDPs.
method Primal-Dual Stochastic Mirror Descent for convex programming problems with inexact constraints.
result First parallel algorithm for average-reward MDPs with generative model and low communication costs.

Approximate Newton methods are a standard optimization tool which aim to maintain the benefits of Newton's method, such as a fast rate of convergence, whilst alleviating its drawbacks, such as computationally expensive calculation or estimation of the inverse Hessian. In this work we investigate approximate Newton meth…

2015-07-29abs ↗pdf ↗

We introduce the active exploration problem in Markov decision processes (MDPs). Each state of the MDP is characterized by a random value and the learner should gather samples to estimate the mean value of each state as accurately as possible. Similarly to active exploration in multi-armed bandit (MAB), states may have…

2019-02-28abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm reduces reinforcement learning regret for linear MDPs with unknown transitions.

problem Adversarial linear mixture MDPs with bandit feedback and unknown transition.
method Proposes a new algorithm with a least square estimator and self-normalized concentration.
result Achieves improved regret bound with high probability.

Improved regret bound for adversarial MDPs with linear function approximation.

problem Learning in adversarial MDPs with changing loss functions and large state spaces.
method Two algorithms: refined FTRL with log-barrier regularizer and magnitude-reduced loss estimator.
result Achieved ildeO(K) ilde{\mathcal O}(\sqrt K) regret, improving over ildeO(K2/3) ilde{\mathcal O}(K^{2/3}).

Paper develops a new estimator for MDPs' risk functionals with lower variance and bias.

problem Estimating the distribution of returns in MDPs with high variance and bias.
method Developed a doubly robust (DR) estimator for the CDF of returns in MDPs, incorporating model-based estimation to mitigate variance issues.
result The DR estimator achieves lower variance and bias compared to IS estimators, and matches minimax lower bounds.

We develop efficient and sharp bounds on policy value under perturbations in MDPs.

problem Evaluating policies under best- and worst-case perturbations in MDPs with transition observations.
method Proposed a perturbation model for MDPs, developed semiparametrically efficient estimator with asymptotic normality.
result Semiparametrically efficient and asymptotically normal estimator for policy value bounds.

This work explores efficient reinforcement learning with density features in low-rank MDPs.

problem Efficient reinforcement learning with density features in low-rank MDPs.
method Proposes algorithms for off-policy estimation and online construction of exploratory data distributions.
result Demonstrates sample-efficient learning with density features in low-rank MDPs, overcoming technical challenges.

Dividend yields have been widely used in previous research to relate stock market valuations to cash flow fundamentals. However, this approach relies on the assumption that dividend yields are stationary. Due to the failure to reject the hypothesis of a unit root in the classical dividend-price ratio for the US stock m…

2019-02-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Optimal sample complexity analysis for plug-in approach in average-reward MDPs.

problem Learning optimal policies in average-reward MDPs with a generative model.
method Plug-in approach that constructs a model estimate and computes an optimal policy.
result Optimal sample complexities for the plug-in approach without prior knowledge of problem parameters.

Improved off-policy evaluation for MDPs with weak distributional overlap.

problem Evaluation of policies when target and data-collection distributions are not strongly overlapping.
method Truncated Doubly Robust (TDR) estimators for off-policy evaluation in MDPs under weak distributional overlap.
result TDR estimators can recover large-sample behavior and are consistent even when distribution ratios are not square-integrable.

We study Exo-MDPs to reduce sample complexity in reinforcement learning.

problem Reducing sample complexity in reinforcement learning for structured MDPs.
method Introducing Exo-MDPs and proving structural equivalence to linear mixture MDPs, establishing regret bounds.
result Proved O(H3/2dK)O(H^{3/2}d\sqrt{K}) regret bound for Exo-MDPs, matching lower bounds.

Improves reinforcement learning agent's scene-specific value function.

problem High variance in samples for policy gradient computations in multi-scene environments.
method Proposes dynamic value estimation (DVE) for multiple MDPs, clustering value functions across scenes.
result Lower sample variance and more accurate scene-specific value function estimates.

We seek to learn an effective policy for a Markov Decision Process (MDP) with continuous states via Q-Learning. Given a set of basis functions over state action pairs we search for a corresponding set of linear weights that minimizes the mean Bellman residual. Our algorithm uses a Kalman filter model to estimate those …

2013-09-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Logarithmic regret for continuous-time reinforcement learning.

problem Continuous-time Markov decision processes with unknown transition probabilities and holding times.
method Upper confidence reinforcement learning, mean holding time estimation, stochastic comparison of point processes.
result Logarithmic regret bound achieved in finite time.

PRL improves off-policy evaluation in partially observed MDPs.

problem Confounding and bias in offline reinforcement learning with unobserved state factors.
method Extends proximal causal inference to POMDPs, identifying and estimating target policy value.
result Semiparametrically efficient estimators for PRL in partially observed MDPs.

RLMM extends psychometric models to larger tasks.

problem Sequential process data from interactive assessments are not well handled by conventional models.
method RLMM decouples person-level choice sensitivity from task-level value representation through a shared parametric action-value function.
result RLMM achieves higher estimation accuracy and lower runtime than MDP-MM in peg-solitaire simulations and AQUALAB gameplay logs.

A quantum reinforcement learning algorithm reduces sample complexity.

problem Quantum reinforcement learning under model-free settings with quantum oracle access.
method Quantum Natural Policy Gradient (QNPG) algorithm replacing random sampling with deterministic gradient estimation.
result QNPG achieves a sample complexity of ildeO(ε1.5) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(ε^{-1.5}) for queries to the quantum oracle, significantly improving classical lower bound.

In this paper, we propose a novel reinforcement- learning algorithm consisting in a stochastic variance-reduced version of policy gradient for solving Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Stochastic variance-reduced gradient (SVRG) methods have proven to be very successful in supervised learning. However, their adaptation…

2018-06-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Study on future-dependent value functions for off-policy evaluation in complex environments.

problem Exponential dependence on horizon in off-policy evaluation for complex observations.
method Developed novel coverage assumptions for POMDPs to achieve polynomial bounds.
result Achieved polynomial bounds on previously exponential quantities, improving off-policy evaluation.

Off-policy evaluation for MNAR rewards in MDPs

problem Off-policy evaluation in MDPs with MNAR rewards
method Formalizing a reward-dependent propensity model and using future states as shadow variables
result Proposed an Fitted-Q-Evaluation-style estimator that propagates recovered rewards while allowing target policies to depend on past missingness indicators