For an autonomous agent, executing a poor policy may be costly or even dangerous. For such agents, it is desirable to determine confidence interval lower bounds on the performance of any given policy without executing said policy. Current methods for exact high confidence off-policy evaluation that use importance sampl…
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48 results for “Lower Confidence Bound”
We propose an estimator and confidence interval for computing the value of a policy from off-policy data in the contextual bandit setting. To this end we apply empirical likelihood techniques to formulate our estimator and confidence interval as simple convex optimization problems. Using the lower bound of our confiden…
Proposes a method to compute valid lower confidence bounds for multiple models selected based on their performance.
problem Model selection and evaluation in machine learning.
method Interprets model selection as a simultaneous inference problem, uses bootstrap tilting and maxT-type multiplicity correction.
result Yields valid lower confidence bounds that are at least as good as standard approaches and reliably reach nominal coverage probability.
Berry et al. (1997) initiated the development of the infinite arms bandit problem. They derived a regret lower bound of all allocation strategies for Bernoulli rewards with uniform priors, and proposed strategies based on success runs. Bonald and Proutière (2013) proposed a two-target algorithm that achieves the regret…
The paper honors Lai's contributions to multi-armed bandits and establishes new regret bounds.
problem Improving regret bounds in multi-armed bandit problems.
method Establishes non-asymptotic regret bounds for upper confidence bound indices.
result New regret bounds match Lai-Robbins lower bound.
The paper extends confidence sequences for infinite variance data.
problem Addressing confidence sequences for distributions with infinite variance.
method Establishing lower bounds and deriving tight confidence sequences for relaxed bounded -moment distributions.
result Derived confidence sequences are tighter than those using Dubins-Savage inequality.
This work creates a CS for non-negative heavy-tailed data with bounded mean.
problem Constructing a confidence sequence for non-negative heavy-tailed data with bounded mean.
method Non-parametric, non-asymptotic lower confidence sequence construction.
result The constructed CS is efficient and can be converted into a closed-interval CS.
Optimal best-arm identification with known number of optimal arms.
problem Identifying the best arm in a multi-armed bandit with multiple optimal arms under fixed confidence.
method Deriving a new information-theoretic lower bound and proposing a modified stopping rule.
result Achieving asymptotic instance-optimality with a new lower bound and new stopping rule.
The paper studies privacy-protected BAI with fixed confidence, deriving lower bounds and proposing an adaptive algorithm.
problem Privacy-protected Best Arm Identification (BAI) in data-sensitive applications.
method Derives lower bounds on sample complexity, proposes AdaP-TT algorithm with Laplace noise, and validates with experiments.
result AdaP-TT matches the sample complexity lower bound up to constants in the high-privacy regime.
Study optimizes dynamic product selection and pricing using censored preference feedback.
problem Maximizing revenue from dynamic assortment and pricing decisions.
method Proposes a censored multinomial logit model and LCB pricing strategy combined with UCB or TS product selection.
result Achieves optimal regret bounds for dynamic pricing and selection.
Improved confidence bounds for linear logistic model with applications to bandits.
problem Improving confidence bounds for linear logistic model.
method Self-concordant analysis of the logistic loss to avoid dependence on worst-case variance.
result Significant improvement in confidence bounds, avoiding dependence on .
BILBO optimizes bilevel problems without repeated lower-level optimizations.
problem Challenges in bilevel optimization, especially in noisy, constrained, and derivative-free settings.
method BILevel Bayesian Optimization (BILBO) that optimizes both levels simultaneously, using confidence-bounds and function query selection.
result Theoretical and empirical evidence of BILBO's effectiveness on various problems.
Paper presents robust confidence sequences for means with known moment bounds and arbitrary corruption.
problem Tackles robustness to outliers and adversarial corruptions in mean estimation.
method Designs new robust exponential supermartingales to create confidence sequences.
result Achieves optimal width and shows smaller margin of error compared to fixed-time robust methods.
This paper is devoted to regret lower bounds in the classical model of stochastic multi-armed bandit. A well-known result of Lai and Robbins, which has then been extended by Burnetas and Katehakis, has established the presence of a logarithmic bound for all consistent policies. We relax the notion of consistence, and e…
New algorithms identify best policies in discounted linear MDPs efficiently.
problem Identifying the best policy in discounted linear MDPs with limited samples.
method Derive lower bounds and devise simple yet near-optimal algorithms.
result Upper bound on sample complexity matches existing bounds.
We study an original problem of pure exploration in a strategic bandit model motivated by Monte Carlo Tree Search. It consists in identifying the best action in a game, when the player may sample random outcomes of sequentially chosen pairs of actions. We propose two strategies for the fixed-confidence setting: Maximin…
New algorithm optimizes online decision-making with dynamically generated actions.
problem Balancing action generation costs with optimal decision-making in online learning.
method Doubly-optimistic algorithm using LCB for action selection and UCB for action generation.
result Achieves optimal regret bound of .
New algorithm improves best arm identification in Bayesian settings.
problem Finding the arm with the highest mean in unknown distributions.
method Developed a variant of successive elimination algorithm.
result Achieved optimal performance in Bayesian setting with logarithmic gap.
Optimal algorithm for identifying best arm in stochastic linear bandits with fixed confidence.
problem Identifying the best arm in stochastic linear bandits with fixed confidence.
method Extending an algorithm designed for Best Arm Identification to the -Thresholding Bandit Problem (TBP).
result Asymptotically optimal algorithm for TBP.
I introduce and analyse an anytime version of the Optimally Confident UCB (OCUCB) algorithm designed for minimising the cumulative regret in finite-armed stochastic bandits with subgaussian noise. The new algorithm is simple, intuitive (in hindsight) and comes with the strongest finite-time regret guarantees for a hori…
The betting CI outperforms classical methods in constructing confidence intervals for bounded means.
problem Constructing nonasymptotic confidence intervals for bounded means.
method A betting-based approach to define and time-uniform variants of confidence intervals (CSs).
result The betting CI matches the fundamental limits, outperforming existing empirical Bernstein CIs.
Proposes online debiasing estimators for adaptive linear regression.
problem Adaptive data collection leads to non-normal asymptotic behavior in simple methods.
method Online debiasing estimators that correct distributional anomalies.
result Asymptotic normality and minimax lower bound for proposed estimators.
A bandit problem with filtered Poisson process data.
problem Maximizing points revealed from a continuum action space.
method Upper confidence bound algorithm with data-adaptive discretisation.
result Regret bound of O(T^(2/3)) under Lipschitz assumption.
A method identifies abrupt changes in functions with fixed confidence under noisy feedback.
problem Identifying abrupt changes in piecewise constant functions quickly and with certainty.
method Fixed-confidence piecewise constant bandit problem, focusing sampling efforts near change points.
result Asymptotically optimal method proven computationally efficient and effective in experiments.
We study the linear contextual bandit problem with finite action sets. When the problem dimension is , the time horizon is , and there are candidate actions per time period, we (1) show that the minimax expected regret is for every algorithm, and (2) introduce a V…
GP-UCB performs suboptimally under certain conditions, as shown by a new regret lower bound.
problem The suboptimality of GP-UCB under polynomial effective optimism.
method Analysis of effective optimism level and new regret lower bound.
result GP-UCB is not minimax optimal under polynomial growth of effective optimism.
Measuring mutual information from finite data is difficult. Recent work has considered variational methods maximizing a lower bound. In this paper, we prove that serious statistical limitations are inherent to any method of measuring mutual information. More specifically, we show that any distribution-free high-confide…
The paper offers efficient algorithms for combinatorial and linear bandits using empirical process theory.
problem Optimal algorithms for combinatorial and linear bandits with practical sample complexity.
method Empirical process theory, Gaussian-width, minimizing experimental design objective.
result Sample complexity matches lower bounds, especially for combinatorial classes.
Withdrawal Success Estimationq-fin.MF
Upper bound on withdrawal success for geometric Levy alpha-stable wealth process.
problem Estimating the probability of completing a withdrawal schedule.
method Constructing a log-Levy alpha-stable lower bound and applying it to a schedule of withdrawals.
result Necessary conditions on initial investment and parameters for a 95% confidence of completing withdrawals.
We consider the problem of near-optimal arm identification in the fixed confidence setting of the infinitely armed bandit problem when nothing is known about the arm reservoir distribution. We (1) introduce a PAC-like framework within which to derive and cast results; (2) derive a sample complexity lower bound for near…
New bounds for Bayesian bandits show prior improves performance.
problem Improving regret bounds for Bayesian bandits.
method Upper confidence bound algorithm with finite-time logarithmic regret bounds.
result Derives and upper bounds for Bayesian bandits.
Prove non-asymptotic bounds for minimal risk in statistical learning
problem Estimating minimal risk in statistical learning
method Using concentration inequalities
result Non-asymptotic bounds for minimal risk
A new method for evaluating and selecting policies in contextual bandits improves confidence intervals and policy quality.
problem Evaluating and selecting policies in contextual bandits with logged data.
method Self-normalized Importance Weighting (SN) estimator with Efron-Stein tail inequality and multiplicative bias control.
result The method provides tighter confidence intervals and better policy selection compared to competitors.
A new algorithm for better decision-making in recommendation systems.
problem Stochastic multi-armed bandit problem and cold start problem in recommender systems.
method Proposes Hellinger-UCB, a variant of UCB algorithm using squared Hellinger distance.
result Hellinger-UCB reaches the theoretical lower bound and outperforms other algorithms in practical applications.
Optimal simple regret bound for Gaussian Process bandits.
problem Sequential optimization of expensive-to-evaluate functions.
method Proved a bound on simple regret for pure exploration algorithms.
result Order optimal bound on simple regret for Gaussian Process bandits.
New algorithm learns optimal path in reinforcement learning with linear approximations.
problem Optimal path learning in reinforcement learning with linear approximations.
method Proposes novel algorithm with Hoeffding-type and Bernstein-type confidence sets.
result Achieves near-optimal regret guarantee for linear mixture SSP.
We give a complete characterization of the complexity of best-arm identification in one-parameter bandit problems. We prove a new, tight lower bound on the sample complexity. We propose the `Track-and-Stop' strategy, which we prove to be asymptotically optimal. It consists in a new sampling rule (which tracks the optim…
Near-optimal per-action regret bounds for sleeping bandits are derived.
problem Optimizing performance in sleeping bandits where arms and losses are chosen by an adversary.
method Directly minimizing per-action regret using generalized versions of EXP3, EXP3-IX, and FTRL with Tsallis entropy.
result Near-optimal bounds of order and are obtained.
New method optimizes offline linear bandits using different confidence sets.
problem Optimizing offline learning for linear contextual bandits.
method Introduces a family of pessimistic learning rules based on confidence sets.
result The rule achieves minimax performance and strictly dominates other predictors.
The paper proposes a novel upper confidence bound (UCB) procedure for identifying the arm with the largest mean in a multi-armed bandit game in the fixed confidence setting using a small number of total samples. The procedure cannot be improved in the sense that the number of samples required to identify the best arm i…
The paper improves confidence set construction for statistical inference.
problem Constructing reliable confidence sets in statistical inference.
method Establishes a finite-sample bound using effective dimension and generalized self-concordance.
result Developed a confidence set adapted to optimization landscapes.
Specialists outperform generalists in ensemble classification.
problem Determining the accuracy of an ensemble of classifiers when individual classifier accuracies are known.
method Proved upper and lower bounds on ensemble accuracy, constructed specialist and generalist classifiers.
result Upper and lower bounds on ensemble accuracy, practical implications for classifier construction.
In this paper we propose a multi-armed bandit inspired, pool based active learning algorithm for the problem of binary classification. By carefully constructing an analogy between active learning and multi-armed bandits, we utilize ideas such as lower confidence bounds, and self-concordant regularization from the multi…
Algorithm aggregates rewards from multiple players to learn related tasks in online bandit learning.
problem Learning related but slightly different tasks in an online setting with heterogeneous feedback.
method RobustAgg algorithm that aggregates rewards from different players.
result Achieves instance-dependent regret guarantees and nearly matching lower bounds.
A new federated multi-armed bandit framework with personalization balances generalization and personalization.
problem Balancing generalization and personalization in federated multi-armed bandits.
method Proposed a Personalized Federated Upper Confidence Bound (PF-UCB) algorithm to achieve a regret.
result PF-UCB achieves an regret regardless of personalization degree and has similar instance dependency to lower bound.
A new algorithm reduces suboptimal arm selection in correlated bandits.
problem Structured bandits with correlated rewards.
method Confidence-based phased algorithm.
result Regret is uniformly bounded in certain structures.
Estimates mean from heavy-tailed data without variance.
problem Estimating mean from distributions with non-existent variance.
method Developed a computationally efficient estimator for weak-moment distributions.
result Achieved optimal confidence interval for general α.
New algorithm reduces regret in linear mixture SSPs without cost bounds.
problem Learning optimal paths in stochastic environments with cost constraints.
method Extended value iteration with variance-aware confidence set.
result Achieves nearly minimax optimal regret bound of .