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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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36912 · Mar 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Confidence-Bounds

A new differentiable UCB algorithm for linear bandits learns adaptive confidence bounds.

problem Inability of UCB to strike optimal exploration-exploitation due to confidence bounds.
method Proposes a differentiable linear bandit algorithm and a gradient estimator for learning adaptive confidence bounds.
result Achieves a ildeO(β^dT) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(\hatβ\sqrt{dT}) upper bound of TT-round regret.

Improved confidence bounds for linear logistic model with applications to bandits.

problem Improving confidence bounds for linear logistic model.
method Self-concordant analysis of the logistic loss to avoid dependence on worst-case variance.
result Significant improvement in confidence bounds, avoiding dependence on 1/κ1/κ.

Improved online confidence bounds for multinomial logistic models in bandits.

problem Achieving optimal regret in multinomial logistic bandits with bounded parameters and outcomes.
method Deriving an improved online confidence bound and proposing OFU-MNL++ and OFU-MN2^2L algorithms.
result Achieved variance-dependent optimal regret for MNL bandits.

The paper presents a method to compute trusted confidence bounds for LECs in CPS.

problem Non-transparent predictions of LECs make CPS safety challenging.
method Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) and Triplet Network architecture.
result Efficient real-time computation of trusted confidence bounds.

Improved Bayesian optimisation method using randomised Gaussian process UCB.

problem Improving performance in Bayesian optimisation.
method Developed a modified Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) acquisition function.
result The method achieves better performance than GP-UCB in various problems.

Proposes a method to compute valid lower confidence bounds for multiple models selected based on their performance.

problem Model selection and evaluation in machine learning.
method Interprets model selection as a simultaneous inference problem, uses bootstrap tilting and maxT-type multiplicity correction.
result Yields valid lower confidence bounds that are at least as good as standard approaches and reliably reach nominal coverage probability.

Paper improves regret bounds for Gaussian process upper confidence bound in Bayesian optimization.

problem Minimizing regret in Gaussian process bandit optimization.
method Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) algorithm with refined analysis.
result Achieves O(Tln2T)O(\sqrt{T \ln^2 T}) cumulative regret under squared exponential kernel.

Bayesian methods improve drug discovery experiment design.

problem Optimizing drug screening experiments in high-dimensional data.
method Bayesian inference and optimisation with upper confidence bound algorithms, Thompson sampling, and sparse tree search.
result Sparse tree search techniques outperform other methods in drug toxicity screening.

Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) method is arguably the most celebrated one used in online decision making with partial information feedback. Existing techniques for constructing confidence bounds are typically built upon various concentration inequalities, which thus lead to over-exploration. In this paper, we propose a n…

2019-06-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Study optimizes dynamic product selection and pricing using censored preference feedback.

problem Maximizing revenue from dynamic assortment and pricing decisions.
method Proposes a censored multinomial logit model and LCB pricing strategy combined with UCB or TS product selection.
result Achieves optimal regret bounds for dynamic pricing and selection.

A new method optimizes robustness measures under input uncertainty using randomized Gaussian process upper confidence bound.

problem Optimizing robustness measures under input uncertainty.
method Randomized robustness measure GP-UCB (RRGP-UCB) that samples β from a chi-squared-based distribution.
result RRGP-UCB provides tight bounds on expected regret.

Berry et al. (1997) initiated the development of the infinite arms bandit problem. They derived a regret lower bound of all allocation strategies for Bernoulli rewards with uniform priors, and proposed strategies based on success runs. Bonald and Proutière (2013) proposed a two-target algorithm that achieves the regret…

2018-05-30abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithm optimizes online decision-making with dynamically generated actions.

problem Balancing action generation costs with optimal decision-making in online learning.
method Doubly-optimistic algorithm using LCB for action selection and UCB for action generation.
result Achieves optimal regret bound of O(Tdd+2ddd+2+dTlogT)O(T^{\frac{d}{d+2}}d^{\frac{d}{d+2}} + d\sqrt{T\log T}).

WS-KDE provides robust confidence bounds for stochastic functions.

problem Optimizing time-consuming black-box functions with stochastic outputs.
method Wilson Score Kernel Density Estimation (WS-KDE) for Bayesian optimization.
result WS-KDE provides reliable confidence bounds for any stochastic function.

Contextual bandits are widely used in Internet services from news recommendation to advertising, and to Web search. Generalized linear models (logistical regression in particular) have demonstrated stronger performance than linear models in many applications where rewards are binary. However, most theoretical analyses …

2017-02-28abs ↗pdf ↗

A new UCB algorithm for heavy-tailed bandits with near-optimal regret.

problem Sequential decision making in uncertain environments with heavy-tailed rewards.
method Data-driven, distribution-free UCB algorithm combining resampled median-of-means and UCB.
result Near-optimal regret bound for heavy-tailed distributions.

This paper proposes a DGP approach with UCBs for point target tracking over WSNs.

problem Uncertainty quantification in distributed machine learning-based tracking over WSNs.
method Distributed Gaussian process (DGP) approach with upper confidence bounds (UCBs).
result UCBs provide 88% and 42% higher probability of encompassing true target states in X and Y coordinates, respectively.

We provide a pointwise confidence bound for non-linear least-squares with fixed design.

problem Confidence estimation in non-linear 2\ell^2-regularized least squares.
method Pointwise confidence bound for local minimizers, using weighted norm involving inverse-Hessian.
result The proposed confidence bound scales with the test input's similarity to the training data.

A new algorithm for better decision-making in recommendation systems.

problem Stochastic multi-armed bandit problem and cold start problem in recommender systems.
method Proposes Hellinger-UCB, a variant of UCB algorithm using squared Hellinger distance.
result Hellinger-UCB reaches the theoretical lower bound and outperforms other algorithms in practical applications.

We integrate information-theoretic concepts into the design and analysis of optimistic algorithms and Thompson sampling. By making a connection between information-theoretic quantities and confidence bounds, we obtain results that relate the per-period performance of the agent with its information gain about the enviro…

2019-11-21abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper, we study the stochastic combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) framework that allows a general nonlinear reward function, whose expected value may not depend only on the means of the input random variables but possibly on the entire distributions of these variables. Our framework enables a much larger c…

2016-10-20abs ↗pdf ↗

We present two algorithms for Bayesian optimization in the batch feedback setting, based on Gaussian process upper confidence bound and Thompson sampling approaches, along with frequentist regret guarantees and numerical results.

2019-11-04abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper improves GP-UCB by using a shifted exponential distribution for confidence parameters.

problem Theoretical confidence parameter in GP-UCB increases with iterations, leading to large values.
method Introduced IRGP-UCB, a randomized variant of GP-UCB using a shifted exponential distribution for confidence parameters.
result IRGP-UCB achieves sub-linear regret without increasing the confidence parameter.

EBUCB framework achieves optimal regret with bounded approximate inference error.

problem Theoretical gap between practical performance and theoretical justification of Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate inference.
method Enhanced Bayesian Upper Confidence Bound (EBUCB) framework that accommodates bandit problems with approximate inference.
result EBUCB achieves optimal regret order O(logT)O(\log T) under certain conditions on inference error.

Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate inference improve regret bounds in stochastic linear bandits.

problem Theoretical justification for Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate inference in stochastic linear bandits.
method Proposed a theoretical framework to analyze approximate inference impact and conducted frequentist regret analysis on LinTS and LinBUCB.
result LinTS and LinBUCB preserve their original regret upper bounds with larger constant terms in approximate inference settings.

ARTEO algorithm optimizes safety-critical systems with uncertainty.

problem Decision-making under uncertainty with safety constraints in real-time optimization.
method ARTEO algorithm uses multi-armed bandits as a mathematical programming problem subject to safety constraints, learning unknown characteristics through exploration and incorporating uncertainty quantification.
result ARTEO achieves less cumulative regret with accurate and safe decisions.

Bayes-UCBVI tackles reinforcement learning with a new upper confidence bound method.

problem Optimizing exploration in reinforcement learning without bonuses.
method Bayes-UCBVI uses a quantile of a Q-value function posterior as an upper confidence bound.
result Proves a regret bound of order O~(H3SAT)\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{H^3SAT}) for tabular reinforcement learning.

We study an extension of the classic stochastic multi-armed bandit problem which involves multiple plays and Markovian rewards in the rested bandits setting. In order to tackle this problem we consider an adaptive allocation rule which at each stage combines the information from the sample means of all the arms, with t…

2020-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Efficiently identifies good policies by choosing contexts for human feedback.

problem Efficiently identifying good policies in applications with high feedback costs.
method Introduces offline contextual dueling bandit setting and an upper-confidence-bound style algorithm.
result Proves a regret bound and shows superior performance over uniformly sampled contexts.

Excessive reuse of test data has become commonplace in today's machine learning workflows. Popular benchmarks, competitions, industrial scale tuning, among other applications, all involve test data reuse beyond guidance by statistical confidence bounds. Nonetheless, recent replication studies give evidence that popular…

2019-05-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops hypothesis tests for conditional distributions using learning-theoretic bounds.

problem Testing differences in conditional distributions and functionals.
method Transforming learning-theoretic bounds into hypothesis tests for conditional expectations.
result Establishes comprehensive foundation for conditional testing, including theoretical guarantees and practical implementations.

This paper analyzes the multi-armed bandit problem using frequency-domain methods.

problem The exploration-exploitation trade-off in sequential decision-making.
method Proposes a frequency-domain analysis framework, reformulating the bandit process as a signal processing problem.
result Confidence bound term in UCB algorithm is equivalent to a time-varying gain in frequency domain.