New acquisition functions improve Bernoulli LSE.
problem Efficiently estimating regions where a Bernoulli function is above or below a threshold.
method Developed new look-ahead acquisition functions for Gaussian process classification models.
result Demonstrated clear benefits of new acquisition functions on benchmark and real-world tasks.
MLMC boosts Bayesian optimization's look-ahead efficiency.
problem Efficiently computing nested expectations in Bayesian optimization.
method Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) for nested operations.
result MLMC achieves MC convergence rate for nested operations, improving BO performance.
New method uses neural tangent kernel for efficient active learning.
problem Efficiently approximating deep learning's look-ahead selection criteria.
method Approximates retraining with neural tangent kernel for active learning.
result Approximation works asymptotically and enables sequential active learning.
Improves graph-based active learning for non-Gaussian models.
problem Efficiently selecting data points for labeling in graph-based semi-supervised learning.
method Approximates non-Gaussian distributions, introduces rank-one update and model change acquisition function.
result Enhanced active learning for graph-based SSL under non-Gaussian models.
Paper extends knowledge gradient for preferential BO, overcoming computational challenges.
problem Extending knowledge gradient to preferential BO with pairwise comparisons.
method Derive exact and analytical knowledge gradient for preferential BO.
result Exact knowledge gradient outperforms existing acquisition functions on benchmark problems.
Study when to replace machine learning models with new data.
problem When to switch machine learning models with new data sources.
method Unified economic and statistical framework linking learning-curve dynamics, data-acquisition, and retraining costs.
result Look-ahead sequential method outperforms other methods and approaches optimal value.
Study shows optimal RL with transition look-ahead is NP-hard for ℓ≥2.
problem Optimal reinforcement learning with transition look-ahead is computationally hard.
method Proved NP-hardness for ℓ≥2 using linear programming. result There is a precise boundary between tractable and intractable cases for RL with look-ahead.
Look-Ahead-Bench evaluates financial LLMs for lookahead bias, revealing significant differences in model performance.
problem Measuring and mitigating lookahead bias in financial LLMs.
method Standardized benchmark evaluating model behavior in practical financial scenarios, analyzing performance decay across market regimes.
result Standard LLMs exhibit significant lookahead bias, while Pitinf models show improved generalization and reasoning abilities.
Bayesian imputation optimizes bias-variance tradeoff in time-series data.
problem Look-ahead bias in imputation of missing time-series data.
method Wasserstein interpolation for Bayesian posterior consensus distribution.
result Optimal control of look-ahead bias and variance in imputation.
A new property fixes look-ahead bias in backtesting and trading pipelines.
problem Fixing look-ahead bias in backtesting and trading pipelines.
method Developed a pipeline calculus separating availability from reference time, and a type-and-effect system for the value-independent fragment.
result The check scales linearly and catches all leaks, including those missed by differential and tiling detectors.
The least squares Monte Carlo (LSM) algorithm proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) is widely used for pricing Bermudan options. The LSM estimator contains undesirable look-ahead bias, and the conventional technique of avoiding it requires additional simulation paths. We present the leave-one-out LSM (LOOLSM) algor…
Bayesian imputation optimizes bias-variance trade-off in time-series data.
problem Look-ahead bias in imputation of missing time-series data.
method Bayesian consensus posterior that fuses multiple posteriors to optimize bias and variance trade-off.
result Benefit of imputation for portfolio allocation with missing returns demonstrated.
Anonymizing company names in financial news improves trading performance, contrary to initial expectations.
problem Look-ahead and distraction biases in sentiment analysis of financial news.
method Investigated trading strategies based on original and anonymized headlines, comparing performance.
result Anonymized headlines outperform original in-sample, suggesting distraction effect is stronger.
La-MAML improves fast online continual learning with a look-ahead approach.
problem Fast online continual learning with limited model capacity.
method Optimisation-based meta-learning with look-ahead and episodic memory.
result Superior performance on visual classification benchmarks.
A scalable online method for Gaussian processes that improves decision-making in various applications.
problem Scalability issues with Gaussian processes for online decision-making.
method Online variational conditioning (OVC) for SVGPs.
result OVC enables efficient online learning and decision-making with SVGPs.
Bayesian method optimizes rescheduling for multipurpose batch processes with incomplete look-ahead information.
problem Optimizing rescheduling for multipurpose batch processes under incomplete look-ahead information.
method Proposes a Bayesian dynamic scheduling method that learns from disturbances and updates schedules online.
result Achieves statistically better long-term costs and system nervousness compared to existing periodic rescheduling strategies.
Performance of investment managers are evaluated in comparison with benchmarks, such as financial indices. Due to the operational constraint that most professional databases do not track the change of constitution of benchmark portfolios, standard tests of performance suffer from the "look-ahead benchmark bias," when t…
New screening rules improve lasso model fitting efficiency.
problem Efficiently solving high-dimensional lasso problems.
method Look-ahead screening rules to discard predictors.
result Look-ahead screening rules outperform existing methods.
NeuralCut learns to select cutting planes by looking ahead, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Selecting effective cutting planes for MILP optimization.
method Imitation learning on a lookahead expert to train a neural network for cut selection.
result NeuralCut outperforms standard baselines in cut selection for MILP benchmarks.
Look-ahead reasoning helps predict strategic user behavior on learning platforms.
problem Optimization criteria on learning platforms do not reflect users' priorities.
method Formalized level-k thinking and contrasted collective and selfish behavior.
result Coordination benefits users but does not offer higher-level reasoning advantages in the long run.
The decentralized particle filter (DPF) was proposed recently to increase the level of parallelism of particle filtering. Given a decomposition of the state space into two nested sets of variables, the DPF uses a particle filter to sample the first set and then conditions on this sample to generate a set of samples for…
Anonymization reduces economic signal extraction from financial texts.
problem Reducing meaningful economic signals from financial texts due to anonymization.
method Analyzed the impact of anonymization on textual understanding and economic signal extraction.
result Information loss due to anonymization is severe and pervasive, outweighing its benefits in certain financial applications.
BALLAST optimizes Lagrangian observer placement for ocean vector fields.
problem Optimizing Lagrangian observer placement for time-dependent ocean vector fields.
method Bayesian active learning with look-ahead amendment for sea-drifter trajectories using a physics-informed spatio-temporal Gaussian process surrogate model.
result Noticeable benefits of BALLAST-aided observer placement strategies on synthetic and high-fidelity ocean models.
We present GLASSES: Global optimisation with Look-Ahead through Stochastic Simulation and Expected-loss Search. The majority of global optimisation approaches in use are myopic, in only considering the impact of the next function value; the non-myopic approaches that do exist are able to consider only a handful of futu…
EB improves asset pricing by mining large strategies without lookahead bias.
problem Lack of unbiased asset pricing models with out-of-sample performance.
method Empirical Bayes applied to 136,000 long-short strategies.
result EB provides unbiased predictions with transparent intuition.
Study non-parametric value function estimation from a single path.
problem Estimating value function from a single trajectory in Markov reward processes.
method Kernel-based multi-step temporal difference (TD) estimates, including K-step look-ahead TD and TD(λ). result Non-asymptotic guarantees for TD estimates, capturing interactions between mixing time and model mis-specification.
Regularizes predictions to encourage beneficial user actions.
problem Learning models affect user actions, but provide no guarantees.
method Introduces look-ahead regularization to anticipate and encourage beneficial actions.
result Effective in promoting beneficial user actions in real and synthetic data.
M2VN forecasts financial volatility by fusing time series data with news embeddings.
problem Forecasting financial volatility with unstructured news data.
method Combines deep neural networks with open-source market features and news embeddings.
result M2VN outperforms existing models in financial volatility forecasting.
Improved knowledge gradient (iKG) outperforms the original KG algorithm in best arm identification problems.
problem Best arm identification (BAI) problem with limitations of the original KG algorithm.
method Follows the one-step look ahead of KG but chooses the measurement that maximizes the probability of selecting the best arm.
result Improved knowledge gradient (iKG) is asymptotically optimal and easier to extend to variant BAI problems.
Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient approach to solving global optimization problems. Along with a surrogate model, this approach relies on theoretically motivated value heuristics (acquisition functions) to guide the search process. Maximizing acquisition functions yields the best performance; unfortunately, t…
Evidence acquisition costs influence disclosure behavior and preference.
problem How evidence acquisition costs affect disclosure behavior and preference.
method Analyzes sender-receiver interactions with covert and overt evidence acquisition, varying certification costs.
result Equilibria converge to the Pareto-worst free-learning equilibrium as costs vanish, and receivers prefer covert to overt acquisition.
AFA evaluates AI feature acquisition strategies in domains with high costs.
problem Evaluate AI feature acquisition strategies in domains with high costs.
method Apply missing data methods and offline reinforcement learning under NDE and NUC assumptions.
result Propose a novel semi-offline reinforcement learning framework with three new estimators.
Bayesian optimization is a sample-efficient approach to global optimization that relies on theoretically motivated value heuristics (acquisition functions) to guide its search process. Fully maximizing acquisition functions produces the Bayes' decision rule, but this ideal is difficult to achieve since these functions …
Inexact acquisition solutions in BO lead to sublinear cumulative regret.
problem Inexact maximization of acquisition functions in Bayesian optimization.
method Define inaccuracy measure, establish cumulative regret bounds for GP-UCB and GP-TS.
result Inexact BO algorithms can achieve sublinear cumulative regret under appropriate inaccuracy conditions.
A2MT learns agents to select which modalities to acquire at test time.
problem Learning agents to select modalities for multimodal temporal data acquisition.
method Perceiver IO architecture for active acquisition of multimodal temporal data.
result Agents successfully learn cost-reactive acquisition behavior on real-world datasets.
A simple method improves batch active learning without high compute.
problem Efficient batch active learning in machine learning.
method Adapting standard single-point acquisition strategies to batch.
result Simple strategy performs as well as advanced batch methods.
This paper explores optimising acquisition functions in Bayesian optimisation.
problem Optimising acquisition functions in Bayesian optimisation is challenging due to their non-convex nature.
method The authors derive compositional forms for acquisition functions and use them to recast maximisation as a compositional optimisation problem.
result The compositional approach to maximising acquisition functions shows empirical advantages across various tasks.
This paper optimizes Bayesian acquisition functions in Gaussian Processes for better optimization.
problem Improving the efficiency of Bayesian optimization methods.
method Analysis of different acquisition functions and optimizers for optimizing Bayesian acquisition functions.
result Optimization of acquisition functions leads to faster and more accurate sampling points.
Optimizes information acquisition to reduce estimation risk and maximize utility.
problem Estimation risk in investor decision-making.
method Derives closed-form value functions using CARA and CRRA utility functions, employs variational methods to explore optimal acquisition.
result Acquiring information earlier is more valuable in reducing estimation risk and achieving higher utility.
Optimizes data acquisition in high-dimensional Bayesian optimization.
problem Suboptimal data acquisition in high-dimensional Bayesian optimization tasks.
method Utility-calibrated variational inference to align approximations with BO goals.
result Optimal data acquisition decisions under a limited computational budget.
Efficiently reduces computational burden of rollout acquisition functions in Bayesian optimization.
problem Expensive computation of rollout acquisition functions in Bayesian optimization.
method Combines quasi-Monte Carlo, common random numbers, and control variates to reduce computational burden. Formulates a policy-search approach to eliminate the need to optimize the rollout acquisition function.
result Significant reduction in computational burden of rollout acquisition functions.
NM-PPG optimizes adaptive feature acquisition in POMDPs for better predictions.
problem Optimizing adaptive feature acquisition in prediction problems with costly features.
method Non-myopic pathwise policy gradients (NM-PPG) with continuous relaxation and straight-through rollout.
result NM-PPG outperforms state-of-the-art AFA methods on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Boundary effects inflate variance in Gaussian processes, leading to acquisition bias.
problem Boundary-induced acquisition bias in Gaussian processes.
method Traced root cause to geometric mechanism of kernel truncation at domain boundaries.
result Boundary effects create distortion that worsens with dimensionality, affecting acquisition behavior.
Unified framework connects EI and information-theoretic acquisition functions.
problem Distinguish between Expected Improvement and information-theoretic acquisition functions.
method Introduces Variational Entropy Search (VES) to unify EI and information-theoretic approaches.
result EI can be seen as a variational inference approximation of Max-value Entropy Search (MES).
Proposes a new acquisition function for batched Bayesian optimization.
problem Intractability of acquisition functions for batched Bayesian optimization.
method Statistical physics inspired acquisition function for Gaussian processes.
result Demonstrates competitive performance on various problems.
Dynamic acquisition of features improves predictions with limited data.
problem Limited or uncertain data requires additional relevant information for accurate assessments.
method Proposes models that dynamically acquire new features using conditional mutual information and arbitrary conditional flow.
result Demonstrates superior performance over baselines in multiple settings.
New acquisition function improves batch Bayesian active learning.
problem BatchBALD conflates epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, leading to suboptimal performance.
method Focus on predictive probabilities to separate epistemic uncertainty, leading to better performance and faster evaluation.
result The new acquisition function performs better and allows for larger batches.
This paper optimizes sampling policies for Bayesian optimization to improve exploration and exploitation.
problem Improving the balance between exploration and exploitation in Bayesian optimization.
method Developed efficient methods to estimate and optimize non-myopic acquisition functions using rollout policies and stochastic gradient optimization.
result Efficient optimization of sampling policies leads to better performance in Bayesian optimization.