Sloth predicts LLM performance using latent skills across families.
problem Variations in benchmark performance due to differences in training configurations and data processing across model families.
method Sloth uses publicly available benchmark data and assumes LLM performance is driven by latent skills influenced by model size and training tokens. It exploits correlations across benchmarks to provide accurate predictions.
result Sloth predicts LLM performance accurately and offers insights into scaling behaviors for complex tasks.
LLMs learn to recommend models and hyperparameters from dataset metadata.
problem Model and hyperparameter selection in machine learning is challenging and resource-intensive.
method Converted datasets into metadata and prompted LLMs to recommend models and hyperparameters.
result LLMs can recommend competitive models and hyperparameters without search.
Statsformer validates and adapts LLM-derived semantic priors for improved supervised learning.
problem Unreliable semantic priors from LLMs can degrade supervised learning performance.
method Adapts LLM-derived feature scores into a family of learner-specific prior-injection mechanisms, calibrating their influence using out-of-fold validation.
result Improves prediction performance by adaptively downweighting unreliable LLM priors, ensuring a guardrailed statistical learning system.
Look-Ahead-Bench evaluates financial LLMs for lookahead bias, revealing significant differences in model performance.
problem Measuring and mitigating lookahead bias in financial LLMs.
method Standardized benchmark evaluating model behavior in practical financial scenarios, analyzing performance decay across market regimes.
result Standard LLMs exhibit significant lookahead bias, while Pitinf models show improved generalization and reasoning abilities.
AOT aligns LLMs on distributional preferences via optimal transport.
problem Current LLM alignment techniques lack distributional level alignment.
method Alignment via Optimal Transport (AOT) aligns LLMs on unpaired preference data.
result AOT enables alignment by penalizing reward distribution violations.
Training-free source selection for LLM families with shared vocabularies
problem Source selection for LLM families with shared vocabularies
method Fisher alignment at vocabulary scale
result Fisher alignment is a cosine between kernel mean embeddings in the joint activation-error space
CoT-UQ improves LLM uncertainty quantification by integrating reasoning steps.
problem LLMs' overconfidence and lack of response-wise uncertainty quantification.
method Integrates LLMs' reasoning steps into uncertainty estimation.
result Significantly improves uncertainty quantification accuracy (5.9% AUROC improvement).
Aggregates diverse zero-shot LLM outputs for better corporate disclosure classification.
problem Combining varied zero-shot LLM predictions for improved stock return prediction.
method Multi-prompt framework with three fixed zero-shot LLM classifiers, logistic meta-classifier aggregation.
result Aggregated model outperforms single classifiers and baseline models, increasing balanced accuracy from 0.566 to 0.606.
LLMs can fail to maximize aligned values even after training, due to irrational reasoning.
problem Value misalignment in LLMs' reasoning despite training alignment.
method Formalized rational value risk and decomposed estimation error.
result Rational value risk is widespread and cannot be fully eliminated.
ATLAS uses LLMs to adaptively trade by optimizing prompts and coordinating agents.
problem Adapting LLMs for real-time financial decision-making in noisy markets.
method ATLAS integrates structured market data, uses Adaptive-OPRO for prompt optimization, and employs multi-agent coordination.
result Adaptive-OPRO consistently outperforms fixed prompts in financial trading.
This paper compares self-reflection and budget tuning for LLMs, revealing domain-specific performance gains.
problem Improving inference-time performance of LLMs without retraining, balancing quality, cost, and latency.
method Systematic comparison of self-reflection and budget tuning across mathematical reasoning and translation tasks, evaluating various LLMs and model families.
result Substantial domain-dependent variation in self-reflection effectiveness, with up to 220% performance gains in mathematical reasoning.
Novel PO algorithms improve LLM alignment tasks.
problem Evaluating PO algorithms on LLM alignment is costly and noisy.
method Designed a diagnostic suite of MuJoCo tasks and datasets, used evolutionary strategies to discover specialized PO algorithms.
result Proposed MPO algorithms significantly outperform existing PO algorithms in LLM alignment.
Study evaluates consistency of LLMs in binary text classification, providing systematic guidance.
problem Lack of reliable methods for evaluating large language model (LLM) binary text classification.
method Adapting psychometric principles, the study determines sample size requirements, develops metrics for invalid responses, and evaluates intra- and inter-rater reliability.
result LLMs demonstrated high intra-rater consistency, achieving perfect agreement on 90-98% of examples, with smaller models outperforming larger counterparts.
New RLHF approach mitigates bias in aligning LLMs with human preferences.
problem Algorithmic bias in RLHF leading to preference collapse.
method Preference Matching (PM) RLHF, using PM regularizer and conditional variant.
result 29% to 41% improvement in alignment with human preferences.
New methods improve LLM preference optimization by intelligently weighting multiple reference models.
problem Improving LLM preference optimization with multiple reference models.
method Introducing four new weighting strategies for multiple-reference preference optimization.
result All four new weighting strategies outperform current methods on preference accuracy.
ValueBlindBench tests LLM-generated investment rationales for validity before returns are known.
problem Delayed-ground-truth evaluation of LLM-generated investment rationales.
method Agreement-gated stress testing protocol to validate LLM-judged rationales.
result ValueBlindBench prevents overclaims and identifies flawed financial constructs.
SLED improves factuality in LLMs without external knowledge.
problem Unreliable or factually incorrect outputs from large language models.
method Contrasts final layer logits with early layers' logits, uses approximate gradient to refine outputs.
result Consistently improves factual accuracy over existing methods.
Framework ensures alignment between humans and machines in LLMs.
problem Human-machine misalignment in LLMs scoring mechanisms.
method Lightweight calibration framework for blackbox models.
result Provably guarantees alignment between humans and machines.
LiveTradeBench evaluates LLMs in live trading environments.
problem Static benchmarks fail to assess real-world trading ability.
method Live data streaming, portfolio management abstraction, multi-market evaluation.
result LLMs show distinct portfolio styles and adapt to live signals.
BTZSC benchmarks zero-shot text classification across diverse models.
problem Systematically comparing zero-shot text classification across various models.
method Comprehensive benchmark of 22 datasets, comparing NLI cross-encoders, embedding models, rerankers, and instruction-tuned LLMs.
result Rerankers and instruction-tuned LLMs outperform NLI cross-encoders, with rerankers setting a new state-of-the-art.
New method detects watermarks in LLM-generated text with human edits.
problem Dilution of watermark signals by human edits on LLM-generated text.
method Truncated goodness-of-fit test (Tr-GoF) for robust detection.
result Tr-GoF achieves optimality in robust detection of Gumbel-max watermark.
Bayesian MoE framework improves LLMs' uncertainty detection.
problem Brittleness and overconfidence in deterministic routing of LLMs.
method Structured Bayesian routing in weight-space, logit-space, and selection-space.
result Significant improvements in routing stability, calibration, and OoD detection.
Proposes integrating global and local entropy for more reliable LLMs.
problem Uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) leads to unreliable predictions.
method Measures global uncertainty from hidden-state matrices and local uncertainty from tokens, combining them via a multiplicative gate.
result Global-Local Uncertainty (GLU) outperforms unsupervised baselines across multiple models and benchmarks.
InfoSFT improves LLMs by focusing on informative, medium-confidence tokens.
problem Overfitting to unlikely samples and degradation of prior capabilities in SFT.
method InfoSFT uses a principled weighting scheme to concentrate learning signals on medium-confidence tokens.
result InfoSFT improves generalization and preserves pre-existing capabilities over vanilla SFT and likelihood-weighted baselines.
TRM improves long-horizon LLM RL by masking divergent sequences.
problem Long-horizon reinforcement learning with LLMs suffers from off-policy mismatch and approximation errors.
method Derives and applies trust region bounds to control divergence, proposing Trust Region Masking.
result First non-vacuous monotonic improvement guarantees for long-horizon LLM-RL.
TRM improves long-horizon reinforcement learning for LLMs by masking divergent sequences.
problem Long-horizon reinforcement learning for LLMs suffers from off-policy mismatch and approximation errors.
method Derives and applies trust region bounds to control divergence, proposing Trust Region Masking.
result First non-vacuous monotonic improvement guarantees for long-horizon LLM-RL.
A new, low-cost method speeds up membership inference attacks on large language models.
problem Membership inference attacks on large language models.
method An ensemble of small quantile regression models to determine model training set membership.
result Comparable or improved accuracy with significantly reduced computational cost.
Traditional methods outperform LLMs in forecasting corporate credit ratings.
problem Forecasting corporate credit ratings using LLMs.
method Comparison of traditional methods (XGBoost) and LLMs (LLaMA) on credit rating forecasting.
result XGBoost outperforms LLMs in forecasting corporate credit ratings.
Unified framework to bridge human and LLM judgments.
problem Systematic discrepancies between human and LLM evaluations.
method Latent human preference score and linear transformations of covariates.
result Higher agreement with human ratings and exposure of systematic gaps.
LLM-Lasso uses LLMs to improve feature selection in Lasso regression.
problem Improving feature selection in Lasso regression with domain-specific knowledge.
method Combines LLMs with Lasso regularization to generate feature weights.
result Outperforms standard Lasso and feature selection baselines in biomedical studies.
THERMOMETER calibrates LLMs efficiently for diverse tasks.
problem Calibrating large language models is challenging due to computational and versatility issues.
method THERMOMETER learns an auxiliary model for calibrating a LLM using data from multiple tasks.
result THERMOMETER produces better-calibrated responses for new tasks.
PolyBench benchmarks LLMs on real market data, revealing significant performance gaps.
problem Benchmarking LLMs for real-world event prediction from live market signals.
method Multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket, evaluating 7 LLMs under identical market states.
result Only two models achieve positive financial returns, highlighting the gap between fluency and probabilistic reasoning.
Regurgitative training with synthetic data harms LLM performance.
problem The impact of training LLMs with synthetic data generated by other LLMs.
method Fine-tuning GPT-3.5 with synthetic and real data in a machine translation task.
result Regurgitative training significantly reduces LLM performance.
FLUID-LLM uses LLMs to predict fluid dynamics with improved accuracy.
problem Leveraging LLMs for CFD due to their pattern recognition abilities but struggles with fluid dynamics complexities.
method Combines pre-trained LLMs with spatiotemporal-aware encoding to predict unsteady fluid dynamics.
result Significant performance improvements in CFD predictions across various datasets.
This paper improves continuous adversarial training for LLMs using in-context learning theory.
problem Efficiently defending large language models (LLMs) against jailbreak attacks.
method The paper presents a theoretical analysis of continuous adversarial training (CAT) for LLMs based on in-context learning (ICL) theory, proving a robust generalization bound and proposing an improved regularization term.
result The robust generalization bound explains why CAT can defend against jailbreak prompts and shows that LLM robustness is related to embedding matrix singular values.
CSA fills a gap in RLVR-trained LLM deployment by providing anytime-valid selective risk control.
problem Deployment of RLVR-trained LLMs in regulated organizations requires a safety certificate for every round without waiting for long-run averages.
method CSA uses a (test statistic, validity guarantee, deployment rule) framework to fill the gap, maintaining a Ville-type e-process per threshold on a Bonferroni grid.
result CSA provides the first anytime-valid selective risk control for RLVR-trained LLMs, matching the long-run average certification rate and satisfying pathwise validity and non-refusing deployment on every cell.
LLMs mimic human traders in finance, but not as much as expected.
problem Evaluating how LLMs behave in financial markets.
method Adapted experimental design with LLMs and human traders, analyzed in single and mixed model settings.
result LLMs tend to price assets near their fundamental value, but not as much as humans, and show less trading strategy variance.
Paper presents a probabilistic model to improve LLM cascade performance.
problem Complexity of LLM cascades and their interaction error rates.
method Probabilistic model for joint performance distribution of LLMs.
result Improves area under the error-cost curve by 4.3% on average for cascades with k≥3 models.
LLMs struggle to optimize hyperparameters efficiently, but hybrid methods can improve performance.
problem Optimizing hyperparameters of small language models using LLMs.
method Comparison of classical HPO algorithms and LLM-based methods, introducing Centaur hybrid approach.
result Hybrid Centaur approach achieves best results, outperforming classical and pure LLM methods.
Improves feature selection in high-dimensional data using LLM-generated weights.
problem Inaccurate LLM-generated weights degrade feature selection performance.
method Integrates LLM-generated weights into prior inclusion probabilities using LLM Sparsity Prior (LSP).
result Improves prediction accuracy and identifies clinically relevant features.
Telescope detects LLM generated text by measuring token repetition probability.
problem Distinguishing LLM generated text from human writing.
method Telescope Perplexity, evaluating token repetition probability.
result Telescope Perplexity enables effective zero-shot LLM detection.
BED-LLM uses Bayesian experimental design to improve LLMs' information gathering.
problem Improving LLMs' ability to gather information adaptively.
method Iteratively choosing questions to maximize expected information gain using a probabilistic model.
result BED-LLM achieves substantial performance gains compared to other adaptive design strategies.
New benchmarks show LLMs struggle with causal discovery.
problem Leveraging LLMs for causal discovery is unreliable due to dataset leakage.
method Developing science-grounded benchmarks and hybrid methods combining LLM predictions with statistical analysis.
result LLMs perform poorly on novel, real-world scientific studies compared to classical methods.
Tiny benchmarks reduce LLM evaluation costs by using fewer examples.
problem Expensive evaluation of LLMs with tens of thousands of examples.
method Developed evaluation tools and tiny versions of popular benchmarks.
result Accurately estimate LLM performance with just 100 curated examples.
SelfReflect measures LLM uncertainty by summarizing belief distribution.
problem LLMs lack transparency in expressing uncertainty.
method Developed SelfReflect metric to quantify uncertainty.
result Modern LLMs cannot reflect their uncertainty.
LLMs overestimate stock returns and are less accurate at predicting extreme outcomes.
problem Behavioral biases in LLMs' stock return forecasts.
method Comparison of LLM forecasts with crowd-sourced estimates and historical data.
result LLMs overestimate stock returns and are less accurate at predicting extreme outcomes.
Survey of LLMs in finance tasks, including adoption and performance.
problem Utilizing large language models in financial tasks.
method Review of current approaches, decision framework for adoption.
result Synthesizes state-of-the-art for LLMs in finance.
StealthRank subtly boosts LLM rankings without detectable anomalies.
problem Adversarial manipulation of LLM-driven ranking systems.
method Energy-based optimization with Langevin dynamics for stealthy prompt generation.
result StealthRank outperforms existing methods in covertly boosting rankings.