Method estimates LLM error rates using Pareto optimization.
problem Quantifying error rates in text-generating models.
method Pareto optimization for generating risk scores.
result Risk scores correlate well with true error rates.
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48 results for “LLM error estimation”
A new method reduces preference distortion in LLM alignment.
problem Vulnerability of traditional LLM alignment methods to human preference heterogeneity.
method Sign Estimator: A simple, provably consistent, and efficient estimator using binary classification loss.
result Substantially reduces preference distortion over a panel of simulated personas.
Study evaluates how much knowledge LLMs have by comparing their prediction accuracy to flexible models.
problem Evaluating the predictive power of LLMs without access to their training data.
method Equivalent sample size measure, comparing LLM's prediction error to flexible models trained on varying amounts of domain-specific data.
result LLMs encode varying amounts of predictive information across different economic variables.
Paper proposes a data augmentation method for LLM-generated data in market research.
problem Bias in LLM-generated data in market research.
method Statistical data augmentation approach integrating LLM-generated and real data.
result Statistically robust estimators with reduced bias and cost savings.
LLMs can fail to maximize aligned values even after training, due to irrational reasoning.
problem Value misalignment in LLMs' reasoning despite training alignment.
method Formalized rational value risk and decomposed estimation error.
result Rational value risk is widespread and cannot be fully eliminated.
Paper presents a probabilistic model to improve LLM cascade performance.
problem Complexity of LLM cascades and their interaction error rates.
method Probabilistic model for joint performance distribution of LLMs.
result Improves area under the error-cost curve by 4.3% on average for cascades with k≥3 models.
This work analyzes CoT prompting methods from a statistical estimation perspective.
problem Improving the effectiveness of LLMs in solving multi-step reasoning problems.
method Introducing a multi-step latent variable model to characterize CoT prompting from a statistical estimation viewpoint.
result The CoT estimator is equivalent to a Bayesian estimator when the pretraining dataset is large.
PredictaBoard benchmarks LLM score predictors to assess their ability to anticipate errors.
problem Inconsistent performance of LLMs in common sense reasoning tasks.
method Collaborative benchmarking framework evaluating pairs of LLMs and assessors using rejection rate at different tolerance errors.
result Highlights the need to evaluate predictability alongside performance for safer AI systems.
Paper proposes CLAIR for efficient LLM fine-tuning across clients.
problem Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) efficiently and collaboratively.
method Federated LoRA fine-tuning with Collaborative Low-rank Alignment and Identifiable Recovery (CLAIR).
result CLAIR achieves better performance and contamination detection compared to local fine-tuning.
CARE improves LLM aggregation by accounting for shared confounders.
problem LLM judges' correlated errors due to shared latent confounders.
method CARE explicitly models judges' scores as true quality and confounders.
result CARE reduces aggregation error by up to 26.8% across various benchmarks.
A new sparse benchmark metabench identifies key abilities from large benchmarks.
problem Redundancy and compression in existing benchmarks.
method Data from 5000+ LLMs to identify most informative items, distilling a sparse benchmark.
result Sparse benchmark metabench captures underlying abilities with high accuracy.
Large language models correlate in errors, even with different architectures and providers.
problem Lack of empirical evidence on whether different large language models differ meaningfully.
method Empirical evaluation of over 350 large language models using two leaderboards and a resume-screening task.
result Large language models have substantial correlation in errors, even with distinct architectures and providers.
The CLT fails for LLM evaluations with small data, leading to underestimation of uncertainty.
problem Inaccurate uncertainty estimates in LLM evaluations with small datasets.
method Alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods for uncertainty quantification.
result CLT-based methods underestimate uncertainty in small data settings.
Tree-Query uses LLMs to discover causal relationships in a transparent, interpretable manner.
problem Error propagation in classical causal discovery methods and opaque, confidence-free behavior of recent LLM-based causal oracles.
method Tree-Query is a tree-structured, multi-expert LLM framework that reduces causal discovery to queries about backdoor paths and dependencies.
result Tree-Query provides interpretable judgments with robustness-aware confidence scores and improves structural metrics over LLM baselines.
CausalGame benchmarks LLM agents' causal thinking in games.
problem Evaluating causal thinking in AI Scientists with LLMs.
method Interactive games with 14 scenarios incorporating selection bias, measurement error, and hidden confounders.
result None of the 30 LLM agents demonstrated reliable causal thinking, with the best model achieving only 68.0% survival.
A new framework evaluates LLM calibration in open-ended QA.
problem Evaluating LLM calibration in open-ended QA settings.
method Sem-ECE framework: sampling answers, grouping by semantic classes, and using frequencies as confidence.
result Sem-ECE estimators are unbiased and Sem achieves smaller calibration error.
Training-free source selection for LLM families with shared vocabularies
problem Source selection for LLM families with shared vocabularies
method Fisher alignment at vocabulary scale
result Fisher alignment is a cosine between kernel mean embeddings in the joint activation-error space
Dynamic Vocabulary Pruning stabilizes LLM training by removing low-probability tokens.
problem Training Large Language Models (LLMs) with Reinforcement Learning (RL) causes numerical divergence between inference and training.
method Dynamic Vocabulary Pruning (DVP) constrains the RL objective to a safe vocabulary that excludes low-probability tokens.
result DVP stabilizes training by reducing systematic bias introduced by the extreme tail of the token distribution.
A new method selects models for ensemble learning to maximize mutual information, outperforming existing approaches.
problem Selecting models for ensemble learning to improve performance and reduce correlation issues.
method Formulate budgeted ensemble selection as maximizing mutual information, use Gaussian-copula to model correlated errors, propose a greedy mutual-information selection algorithm.
result Our method consistently outperforms strong baselines across multiple datasets.
New method corrects quantization errors in LLMs using low-rank matrices.
problem Correcting quantization errors in large language models.
method Introducing low-rank weight matrices to correct quantized activations in LLMs.
result Reduces accuracy gap with original model by more than 50% using low-rank matrices.
GATGPT uses LLMs with graph attention for spatiotemporal data imputation.
problem Missing values in spatiotemporal data due to sensor malfunctions and data transmission errors.
method Integrates pre-trained large language models with graph attention mechanisms.
result GATGPT achieves comparable results to deep learning benchmarks on real-world datasets.
Inverse depth scaling found in LLMs due to similar layers averaging error.
problem Understanding how depth affects loss in large language models.
method Analysis of LLMs and toy residual networks.
result Loss scales inversely proportional to depth in LLMs.
LLMs struggle with zero-shot annotation tasks due to model-internalized priors.
problem Impact of model-internalized priors on LLM performance in zero-shot annotation tasks.
method Investigated three dimensions: familiarity, decision stickiness, and susceptibility to misaligned task definitions.
result Nearly two-thirds of zero-shot errors are resistant to correction, with a rescue rate of 34.8%. Definition-Specific Familiarity (DSF) shows a positive association with model performance.
DBPA assesses LLM perturbations using frequentist hypothesis testing.
problem Quantifying input perturbation impacts on LLM outputs.
method DBPA reformulates perturbation analysis as frequentist hypothesis testing, using Monte Carlo sampling for empirical null and alternative distributions.
result DBPA provides interpretable p-values and scalar effect sizes for LLM perturbations.
Auto-CEI improves LLM reasoning by balancing assertiveness and conservativeness.
problem Hallucinations and laziness in LLM reasoning tasks.
method Expert Iteration explores reasoning trajectories, guiding incorrect paths back on track and promoting appropriate 'I don't know' responses.
result Auto-CEI achieves superior alignment in logical reasoning, mathematics, and planning tasks.
FactTest assesses LLM factuality with Type I error control.
problem Lack of rigorous factuality verification for LLMs.
method Formulates factuality testing as hypothesis testing, ensuring Type I and II error control.
result Improves model accuracy by over 40% in abstaining from unknown questions.
Cer-Eval saves LLM evaluation costs while maintaining accuracy.
problem Challenges in evaluating large language models due to large dataset requirements.
method Adapts to different evaluation objectives, uses test sample complexity, and develops a partition-based algorithm.
result Cer-Eval can save 20-40% test points with comparable accuracy and 95% confidence guarantee.
Classifier detects LLM-generated text with guarantees.
problem Detecting fake LLM-generated text to prevent misuse.
method Trained classifier without auxiliary info, distinguishing human and LLM text.
result Achieves higher accuracy than existing detectors with type-I error control.
PromptEval estimates LLM performance across many prompts, improving reproducibility.
problem Limited prompt templates affect LLM benchmark reproducibility.
method Estimates performance distribution across many prompts using borrowed strength.
result PromptEval accurately estimates performance quantiles with practical budget.
MACI improves LLM factuality inference with higher retention and lower time cost.
problem Ensuring factuality in LLM responses for high-stakes domains.
method Reformulated conformal inference in a multiplicative filtering setting, leveraging ensembles for more accurate factuality scores and group-conditional calibration.
result MACI achieves higher retention and lower time cost compared to baselines, preserving validity through group-conditional calibration.
LLMs learn probability density functions in-context, showing distinct learning trajectories.
problem Density estimation of time series data in LLMs.
method Intensive Principal Component Analysis (InPCA) to visualize and analyze LLMs' learning dynamics.
result LLMs follow similar learning trajectories in a low-dimensional InPCA space, distinct from traditional methods.
Optimizes budgeted evaluations of LLMs by allocating queries to judges efficiently.
problem Evaluating LLMs with heterogeneous judges and varying costs and reliability.
method Formalizes and analyzes budgeted heteroskedastic multi-judge estimation, proposing EST-IVWE for practical implementation.
result EST-IVWE matches the oracle IVWE rate up to lower-order terms in the budget and is instance-optimal.
LLMs help automate extraction of actuarial variables from unstructured claims data.
problem Manual processing of unstructured claims data is time-consuming and inconsistent.
method Two-stage processing architecture using LLMs, modular Python pipeline.
result LLM-based extraction achieved high accuracy and practical actuarial value.
Bayesian RL enhances LLMs to reflectively explore and correct errors.
problem LLMs trained via RL lack reflective behaviors like rethinking and error correction.
method Bayesian RL framework that optimizes expected return under posterior distribution over Markov decision processes.
result BARL algorithm improves LLM performance in reasoning tasks.
E-scores assess LLM outputs for correctness, addressing p-hacking issues.
problem Limited principled mechanisms to assess generative model correctness.
method Use e-values to complement LLM outputs with e-scores, providing flexibility in tolerance levels.
result Achieves guarantees of correctness assessment and upper bounds size distortion.
Study optimizes compute usage for LLM web agents, improving performance.
problem High compute costs and narrow focus on single-step tasks limit LLM web agents.
method Two-stage pipeline: SFT followed by on-policy RL, with hyperparameter optimization.
result Combining SFT and on-policy RL requires 55% less compute to match peak SFT performance.
The paper tackles data misappropriation in LLMs by embedding watermarks and testing for their presence.
problem Detecting data misappropriation in LLMs trained on copyrighted data.
method Embedding watermarks, formulating as hypothesis testing, developing statistical framework, constructing test statistics, determining optimal thresholds, controlling errors, establishing asymptotic optimality.
result The proposed statistical testing framework effectively detects data misappropriation in LLMs.
Estimates TV distance between autoregressive models under different access models.
problem Estimating the total variation distance between two autoregressive distributions.
method Three access models: sample access, logit access, and noisy logit access; provides query complexity for each.
result Improved query complexity for estimating TV distance in autoregressive models.
ABC improves uncertainty quantification in LLMs for clinical diagnostics.
problem Overconfident and poorly calibrated estimates of LLMs in clinical domains.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) for likelihood-free inference.
result Improves accuracy by up to 46.9%, reduces Brier scores by 74.4%, and enhances calibration.
Efficiently estimates uncertainty for LLM-based entity linking in tabular data.
problem Accurate and reliable uncertainty estimates for LLM-based entity linking in tabular data.
method Self-supervised approach using token-level features for single-shot inference.
result Effective uncertainty estimates detected at a fraction of computational cost.
Restoring Calibration for Aligned Large Language Models: A Calibration-Aware Fine-Tuning Approachcs.LG
The paper addresses poor calibration in fine-tuned LLMs after preference alignment.
problem Poor calibration in fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) after preference alignment.
method Proposes a calibration-aware fine-tuning approach to restore calibration without compromising model performance.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed methods through extensive experiments.
Mamba outperforms Reformer in minute-level stock prediction using LLM sentiment scores.
problem Improving minute-level stock market prediction accuracy in volatile markets.
method Combining sentiment scores from top LLMs with stock price data, training Mamba and Reformer models.
result Mamba achieved lower error rates across all tested LLMs, especially with LLaMA 3.3--70B.
We show LLMs can be locally linear, enabling better control of activations.
problem Suboptimal control of LLM activations during generation.
method Model LLM inference as a linear dynamical system, compute feedback controllers using Jacobians, and adapt classical control theory.
result Robust, fine-grained control of LLM activations across models and tasks.
A Theoretical Understanding of Chain-of-Thought: Coherent Reasoning and Error-Aware Demonstrationcs.CL
Theoretical work shows integrating coherent reasoning improves LLM performance and error correction.
problem Improving reasoning and error correction in large language models (LLMs) with few-shot prompting.
method Theoretical analysis and sensitivity experiments on transformer behavior with coherent reasoning and corrupted demonstrations.
result The transformer gains better error correction ability and more accurate predictions when coherent reasoning is integrated.
The paper develops a method to identify LLM-generated text without training.
problem Identifying LLM-generated text among human-generated content.
method Modeling LLM text as a sequential process and designing zero-shot statistical tests.
result The method can distinguish between text from known LLMs and non-sanctioned models with low false positive rates.
FinMaster benchmarks LLMs in financial tasks, revealing gaps in reasoning.
problem Challenges in financial tasks, including labor-intensive processes and low error tolerance.
method Developed a comprehensive financial benchmark (FinMaster) with three modules: FinSim, FinSuite, and FinEval.
result LLMs struggle with complex financial reasoning, showing significant accuracy drops.
LLMs struggle with financial reasoning but can outperform the market with human oversight.
problem Financial reasoning failures in LLM-generated stock market predictions.
method Evaluated four LLMs using three prompting strategies and compared to human oversight.
result LLMs require human oversight to fully realize their potential in financial markets.
This work shows fine-tuning improves LLM uncertainty estimates efficiently.
problem Ensuring high-stakes predictions from large language models.
method Fine-tuning on a small dataset of correct and incorrect answers.
result Fine-tuned LLMs produce good generalization and tractable uncertainty estimates.