A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New computational methods improve clustering of objects.
Research shows ESG signals lower exposure to market fragility during stress periods.
Bilinear models such as DistMult and ComplEx are effective methods for knowledge graph (KG) completion. However, they require large batch sizes, which becomes a performance bottleneck when training on large scale datasets due to memory constraints. In this paper we use occurrences of entity-relation pairs in the datase…
Learning the influence structure of multiple time series data is of great interest to many disciplines. This paper studies the problem of recovering the causal structure in network of multivariate linear Hawkes processes. In such processes, the occurrence of an event in one process affects the probability of occurrence…
A new framework models multi-state events and biomarkers.
Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty…
The paper maps time-series onto networks to reveal hidden joint information.
Develops a measure-theoretic framework for complex co-occurrence data.
The choice of constellations largely affects the performance of communication systems. When designing constellations, both the locations and probability of occurrence of the points can be optimized. These approaches are referred to as geometric and probabilistic shaping, respectively. Usually, the geometry of the const…
Word embedding models offer continuous vector representations that can capture rich contextual semantics based on their word co-occurrence patterns. While these word vectors can provide very effective features used in many NLP tasks such as clustering similar words and inferring learning relationships, many challenges …
A popular trick for computing a pairwise co-occurrence matrix is the product of an incidence matrix and its transpose. We present an analog for higher order tuple co-occurrences using the face-splitting product, or alternately known as the transpose Khatri-Rao product. These higher order co-occurrences encode the commo…
Most popular word embedding techniques involve implicit or explicit factorization of a word co-occurrence based matrix into low rank factors. In this paper, we aim to generalize this trend by using numerical methods to factor higher-order word co-occurrence based arrays, or \textit{tensors}. We present four word embedd…
A natural occurrence of shift equivalence in a purely algebraic setting constitutes the subject matter of the following short exposition.
Individual risk models need to capture possible correlations as failing to do so typically results in an underestimation of extreme quantiles of the aggregate loss. Such dependence modelling is particularly important for managing credit risk, for instance, where joint defaults are a major cause of concern. Often, the d…
Develops a neural model to predict event occurrence and timing.
We propose an algorithm for the non-negative factorization of an occurrence tensor built from heterogeneous networks. We use l0 norm to model sparse errors over discrete values (occurrences), and use decomposed factors to model the embedded groups of nodes. An efficient splitting method is developed to optimize the non…
The Viterbi process can be extended indefinitely in a pairwise Markov model.
We present multi-modal adversarial autoencoders for recommendation and evaluate them on two different tasks: citation recommendation and subject label recommendation. We analyze the effects of adversarial regularization, sparsity, and different input modalities. By conducting 408 experiments, we show that adversarial r…
Matrix Chernoff bound for Markov chains applied to co-occurrence matrices.
Matrix factorization is a simple and effective solution to the recommendation problem. It has been extensively employed in the industry and has attracted much attention from the academia. However, it is unclear what the low-dimensional matrices represent. We show that matrix factorization can actually be seen as simult…
Representing a word by its co-occurrences with other words in context is an effective way to capture the meaning of the word. However, the theory behind remains a challenge. In this work, taking the example of a word classification task, we give a theoretical analysis of the approaches that represent a word X by a func…
The paper models and predicts co-occurrence counts using Gamma regression.
Paper models spatio-temporal extremes using conditional variational autoencoders.
We consider the problem of modeling discrete-valued vector time series data using extensions of Chow-Liu tree models to capture both dependencies across time and dependencies across variables. Conditional Chow-Liu tree models are introduced, as an extension to standard Chow-Liu trees, for modeling conditional rather th…
This paper considers the problem of predicting the number of events that have occurred in the past, but which are not yet observed due to a delay. Such delayed events are relevant in predicting the future cost of warranties, pricing maintenance contracts, determining the number of unreported claims in insurance and in …
Framework uncovers symmetric and asymmetric species associations from data.
Analyzes word vectors and co-occurrence statistics in NLP models.
Various measures can be used to estimate bias or unfairness in a predictor. Previous work has already established that some of these measures are incompatible with each other. Here we show that, when groups differ in prevalence of the predicted event, several intuitive, reasonable measures of fairness (probability of p…
New model predicts financial tail events using RIA-EVT-Copula.
We show that the climate phenomena of El Nino and La Nina arise naturally as states of macro-variables when our recent causal feature learning framework (Chalupka 2015, Chalupka 2016) is applied to micro-level measures of zonal wind (ZW) and sea surface temperatures (SST) taken over the equatorial band of the Pacific O…
We present a novel method for hierarchical topic detection where topics are obtained by clustering documents in multiple ways. Specifically, we model document collections using a class of graphical models called hierarchical latent tree models (HLTMs). The variables at the bottom level of an HLTM are observed binary va…
Chromatic Learning reduces feature dimensions for sparse datasets.
New method reconstructs past foehn occurrences using unsupervised and supervised learning.
Person re-identification (re-id), an emerging problem in visual surveillance, deals with maintaining entities of individuals whilst they traverse various locations surveilled by a camera network. From a visual perspective re-id is challenging due to significant changes in visual appearance of individuals in cameras wit…
Technical analysis (TA) has been used for a long time before the availability of more sophisticated instruments for financial forecasting in order to suggest decisions on the basis of the occurrence of data patterns. Many mathematical and statistical tools for quantitative analysis of financial markets have experienced…
LLMs learn new tasks from unstructured data, but it depends on word co-occurrence and positional information.
In this paper, we are presenting a method for estimation of market parameters modeled by jump diffusion process. The method proposed is based on Gibbs sampler, while the market parameters are the drift, the volatility, the jump intensity and its rate of occurrence. Demonstration on how to use these parameters to estima…
Study tackles imbalanced data in car insurance claims prediction.
Multi-view clustering has received much attention recently. Most of the existing multi-view clustering methods only focus on one-sided clustering. As the co-occurring data elements involve the counts of sample-feature co-occurrences, it is more efficient to conduct two-sided clustering along the samples and features si…
The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been shown to be common to most financial assets, both at high and low frequency. It…
Extreme multi-label classification (XMC) refers to supervised multi-label learning involving hundreds of thousand or even millions of labels. In this paper, we develop a suite of algorithms, called Bonsai, which generalizes the notion of label representation in XMC, and partitions the labels in the representation space…
We study the relaxation dynamics of a financial market just after the occurrence of a crash by investigating the number of times the absolute value of an index return is exceeding a given threshold value. We show that the empirical observation of a power law evolution of the number of events exceeding the selected thre…
We present the first framework for Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes when the temporal data appear in the form of panel counts. Panel count data frequently arise when experimental subjects are observed only at discrete time points and only the numbers of occurrences of the events between subsequent observati…
Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis is a novel statistical technique for the analysis of two-mode and co-occurrence data, which has applications in information retrieval and filtering, natural language processing, machine learning from text, and in related areas. Compared to standard Latent Semantic Analysis which s…
Event occurrence is not only subject to the environmental changes, but is also facilitated by the events that have occurred in a system. Here, we develop a method for estimating such extrinsic and intrinsic factors from a single series of event-occurrence times. The analysis is performed using a model that combines the…
Text corpora are widely used resources for measuring societal biases and stereotypes. The common approach to measuring such biases using a corpus is by calculating the similarities between the embedding vector of a word (like nurse) and the vectors of the representative words of the concepts of interest (such as gender…
An important problem in multi-label classification is to capture label patterns or underlying structures that have an impact on such patterns. This paper addresses one such problem, namely how to exploit hierarchical structures over labels. We present a novel method to learn vector representations of a label space give…
PyDTS analyzes survival data with discrete intervals and competing risks.