arXiv research

A new method for sampling from posterior distributions in Bayesian inverse problems.

A new method improves inference for complex Bayesian models.

A large number of statistical models are "doubly-intractable": the likelihood normalising term, which is a function of the model parameters, is intractable, as well as the marginal likelihood (model evidence). This means that standard inference techniques to sample from the posterior, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (…

Action-BED: Task-Driven Bayesian Experimental Design

New method uses approximate KLD for intractable likelihood models.

New models capture dynamic derivatives pricing with efficient simulations.

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are a powerful approach to unsupervised learning. They have achieved state-of-the-art performance in the image domain. However, GANs are limited in two ways. They often learn distributions with low support---a phenomenon known as mode collapse---and they do not guarantee the exist…

Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte Carlo techniques (Møller et al., 2006; Murray et al., 2006) for tackling this pr…

New framework improves worst-case generalization bounds for stochastic optimization.

Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically either uses MCMC schemes which target the joint posterior of the parameters and some…

Bayesian inference uses Stein discrepancy for robustness in intractable likelihoods.

Maximum Likelihood Estimators (MLE) has many good properties. For example, the asymptotic variance of MLE solution attains equality of the asymptotic Cram{é}r-Rao lower bound (efficiency bound), which is the minimum possible variance for an unbiased estimator. However, obtaining such MLE solution requires calculating t…

Many machine learning tasks can be formulated in terms of predicting structured outputs. In frameworks such as the structured support vector machine (SVM-Struct) and the structured perceptron, discriminative functions are learned by iteratively applying efficient maximum a posteriori (MAP) decoding. However, maximum li…

Develops a new Bayesian inference method for discrete data.

SimpleMKKM improves multi-kernel clustering efficiency.

Efficient Bayesian decision-making with intractable likelihoods.

A new method uses mixture approximations to improve diffusion models for Bayesian inverse problems.

A new Branch-and-Bound solver tackles L0-penalized problems with flexible loss functions.

We propose an algorithm which predicts each subsequent time step relative to the previous timestep of intractable short rate model (when adjusted for drift and overall distribution of previous percentile result) and show that the method achieves superior outcomes to the unbiased estimate both on the trained dataset and…

We introduce Deep Variational Bayes Filters (DVBF), a new method for unsupervised learning and identification of latent Markovian state space models. Leveraging recent advances in Stochastic Gradient Variational Bayes, DVBF can overcome intractable inference distributions via variational inference. Thus, it can handle …

Develops algorithm to differentiate Metropolis-Hastings for optimization.

Long Short-Term Memory networks trained with gradient descent and back-propagation have received great success in various applications. However, point estimation of the weights of the networks is prone to over-fitting problems and lacks important uncertainty information associated with the estimation. However, exact Ba…

The exchange algorithm is studied for its convergence and asymptotic variance.

Paper proposes nested MLMC for SNPE with intractable likelihoods.

Investor maximizes utility from an unknown claim using robust optimization.

We propose a black-box variational inference method to approximate intractable distributions with an increasingly rich approximating class. Our method, termed variational boosting, iteratively refines an existing variational approximation by solving a sequence of optimization problems, allowing the practitioner to trad…

We introduce a regularization approach to arbitrage-free factor-model selection. The considered model selection problem seeks to learn the closest arbitrage-free HJM-type model to any prespecified factor-model. An asymptotic solution to this, a priori computationally intractable, problem is represented as the limit of …

Generative Bayesian Filtering improves inference in complex models without explicit density evaluations.

A new MCMC method for GPs tackles computational burden and intractable likelihoods.

Paper solves NP-hard sparse mixed linear regression problem with provable guarantees.

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild dif…

Unified framework connects NCE, MIS, RLR, and bridge sampling for EBMs.

New method for MCMC models without perfect or sequential samplers.

Time series data constitutes a distinct and growing problem in machine learning. As the corpus of time series data grows larger, deep models that simultaneously learn features and classify with these features can be intractable or suboptimal. In this paper, we present feature learning via long short term memory (LSTM) …

New MCMC methods use auxiliary variables to sample from intractable distributions.

New SMC samplers improve stochastic optimisation efficiency.

Posterior inference with an intractable likelihood is becoming an increasingly common task in scientific domains which rely on sophisticated computer simulations. Typically, these forward models do not admit tractable densities forcing practitioners to make use of approximations. This work introduces a novel approach t…

Bayesian design improves by reducing policy training cost.

NPE improves scalability and efficiency for ERGMs.

The aim of this work is to provide fast and accurate approximation schemes for the Monte Carlo pricing of derivatives in LIBOR market models. Standard methods can be applied to solve the stochastic differential equations of the successive LIBOR rates but the methods are generally slow. Our contribution is twofold. Firs…

We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian parameter inference in non-linear state-space models with intractable likelihoods. Sequential Monte Carlo with approximate Bayesian computations (SMC-ABC) is one approach to approximate the likelihood in this type of models. However, such approximations can be noisy and c…

Semi-Implicit Variational Inference (SIVI) is improved with SIVI-SM using score matching.

In Bayesian machine learning, the posterior distribution is typically computationally intractable, hence variational inference is often required. In this approach, an evidence lower bound on the log likelihood of data is maximized during training. Variational Autoencoders (VAE) are one important example where variation…

Paper solves a complex stopping problem using regularization and HJB equations.

We propose Kernel Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (KMC), a gradient-free adaptive MCMC algorithm based on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). On target densities where classical HMC is not an option due to intractable gradients, KMC adaptively learns the target's gradient structure by fitting an exponential family model in a Reprod…

Simplifies inference for simulators with or without tractable likelihoods.

Optimizes experimental designs for intractable models using mutual information bounds.

ARL uses queries to learn rewards, focusing on cost vs. reward value.