Measuring information value in markets using covariance of price changes and order flow.
problem Determining the value of information in financial markets.
method Using high-frequency data on US equities, the covariance between price changes and order flow is estimated to measure information value.
result The aggregate value of information is about 0.04% of market cap, significantly lower than fees investors pay.
Study shows financial value of weak information converges in discrete vs continuous markets.
problem Analyzing financial value of weak information in discrete vs continuous markets.
method Defined minimal probability measure and financial value of weak information, then showed convergence.
result Financial value of weak information converges in discrete vs continuous markets.
The paper calculates the value of information in high-dimensional decision making.
problem Determining the value of acquiring new information in high-dimensional decision problems.
method Using tools from sub-Gaussian processes and generic chaining for asymptotic analysis.
result Asymptotic results on the expected value of information as dimensionality increases.
Sell-side analysts' reports explain 10% of stock returns, with income statement analyses most impactful.
problem The value of sell-side analysts' information in predicting stock returns.
method Analysis of large language model embeddings and Shapley value decomposition.
result Income statement analyses contribute most to explaining stock returns.
Study finds non-monotonic Value of Information in dynamic multi-market monopoly.
problem Investigates non-monotonicity in Value of Information for a price-setting monopolist.
method Uses a Bayesian inverse problem with Kalman-Bucy-Stratonovich filter in a dynamic discrete model.
result Non-monotonic relationship between signal variance and Value of Information.
Study a market with uncertain informed traders, finding price impact depends on both asset value and informed trader count distribution.
problem Uncertain participation of informed traders in a market with limit orders.
method Characterized equilibrium by a fixed point integral equation, analyzed large order asymptotics, solved numerically.
result Equilibrium price impact depends on both asset value and distribution of informed traders, not just expected number of informed traders.
DVA framework attributes value of predictive models to features, configurations, and interactions.
problem Lack of explanation for how predictive models influence operational decisions.
method Shapley-based cooperative game theory applied to predict-then-optimize systems.
result DVA can guide targeted interventions to align model beliefs with operational performance.
In the context of a general semimartingale model of a complete market, we aim at answering the following question: How much is an investor willing to pay for learning some inside information that allows to achieve arbitrage? If such a value exists, we call it the value of informational arbitrage. In particular, we are …
Optimizes information acquisition to reduce estimation risk and maximize utility.
problem Estimation risk in investor decision-making.
method Derives closed-form value functions using CARA and CRRA utility functions, employs variational methods to explore optimal acquisition.
result Acquiring information earlier is more valuable in reducing estimation risk and achieving higher utility.
Proposes indifference pricing to estimate weak information value.
problem Estimating the value of weak information in financial models.
method Tractable framework quantifying additional information, stability analysis.
result Sharp conditions for stability with counterexamples, including replicable claims.
In this paper, we provide an approach to clustering relational matrices whose entries correspond to either similarities or dissimilarities between objects. Our approach is based on the value of information, a parameterized, information-theoretic criterion that measures the change in costs associated with changes in inf…
We adapt Shapley values to explain model uncertainty, connecting it to information theory.
problem Explaining uncertainty in model predictions.
method Adapted Shapley value framework to quantify feature contributions to predictive uncertainty.
result Deep connections between Shapley values and information theory quantities.
We extend Kyle's model to include stochastic liquidity and multiple assets.
problem Modeling informed trading with stochastic liquidity and multiple assets.
method Developed a variational formulation and derived a matrix-valued martingale depth process.
result A linear-Gaussian equilibrium with stochastic matrix-valued price impact.
Advocates focusing on utility functions to avoid unfair outcomes.
problem Unfair outcomes from fairness criteria in optimizing policies.
method Defines value of information fairness and proposes modifying utility functions.
result Value of information fairness leads to better answers than existing fairness notions.
Enhances neural networks with prior function values to improve accuracy.
problem Improving neural network accuracy in regions without training data.
method Develops a probabilistic approach to augment BNNs with prior function values.
result Predictions rely more on prior information in uncertain regions.
We derive bounds on the distribution function, therefore also on the Value-at-Risk, of φ(X) where φ is an aggregation function and X=(X1,…,Xd) is a random vector with known marginal distributions and partially known dependence structure. More specifically, we analyze three type…
We propose a model for the credit markets in which the random default times of bonds are assumed to be given as functions of one or more independent "market factors". Market participants are assumed to have partial information about each of the market factors, represented by the values of a set of market factor informa…
The paper introduces V(I) to guide algorithm choice and parameter tuning in financial forecasting.
problem Selecting optimal algorithms and tuning parameters for financial time-series forecasting.
method Estimating Shannon's mutual information and using it to define performance bounds.
result Illustrates the value of information for mean-square error minimization in cryptocurrency forecasts.
We present results on simulations of a stock market with heterogeneous, cumulative information setup. We find a non-monotonic behaviour of traders' returns as a function of their information level. Particularly, the average informed agents underperform random traders; only the most informed agents are able to beat the …
Study on pricing rules for income streams with partial insider information.
problem Determining the value of partial information in pricing rules for income streams.
method Analyzes three types of agents with varying levels of jump information and derives explicit state price densities.
result Explicit formulas for pricing rules with different levels of jump information are provided.
Modeling market dynamics with informed and uninformed traders and fads.
problem Optimizing market making in a market with fads, informed, and uninformed traders.
method Characterizing the optimal liquidity provision problem in a market with fads, informed, and uninformed traders, considering both complete and partial information.
result The price of liquidity is a function of the proportion of informed traders, and strategies ignoring fads underperform.
Value functions struggle to represent transition dynamics, impacting statistical efficiency.
problem Limited representational power of value functions in capturing transition dynamics.
method Case studies of various reinforcement learning problems to explore the limitations of value-based methods.
result Value-based methods can be as efficient as model-based ones in some cases but severely underperform in others due to information loss.
To identify emerging interdependencies between traded stocks we investigate the behavior of the stocks of FTSE 100 companies in the period 2000-2015, by looking at daily stock values. Exploiting the power of information theoretical measures to extract direct influences between multiple time series, we compute the infor…
Complete criterion for VoI in multi-decision influence diagrams established.
problem Analyzing safety and fairness properties of AI systems using influence diagrams.
method Introduced ID homomorphisms and Tree of Systems to prove properties of multi-decision influence diagrams.
result First complete graphical criterion for VoI in influence diagrams with multiple decisions.
Value selection reduces model size while maintaining accuracy.
problem Space efficiency in model size reduction.
method Two probabilistic methods based on information theory's metric: PVS and P + VS.
result Value selection achieves balance between accuracy and model size reduction.
In this paper, we propose an information-theoretic exploration strategy for stochastic, discrete multi-armed bandits that achieves optimal regret. Our strategy is based on the value of information criterion. This criterion measures the trade-off between policy information and obtainable rewards. High amounts of policy …
We study super--replication of European contingent claims in an illiquid market with insider information. Illiquidity is captured by quadratic transaction costs and insider information is modeled by an investor who can peek into the future. Our main result describes the scaling limit of the super--replication prices wh…
Anticipatory portfolios use richer models to optimize investments.
problem Optimizing investments with richer models than used for calibration.
method Decision-theoretic definition of anticipation, quadratic geometry, and LQG decomposition.
result Correct anticipation creates value, vacuous anticipation has zero value, and misspecified anticipation is harmful.
We present a fully nonparametric method to estimate the value function, via simulation, in the context of expected infinite-horizon discounted rewards for Markov chains. Estimating such value functions plays an important role in approximate dynamic programming and applied probability in general. We incorporate "soft in…
In many application settings, the data have missing entries which make analysis challenging. An abundant literature addresses missing values in an inferential framework: estimating parameters and their variance from incomplete tables. Here, we consider supervised-learning settings: predicting a target when missing valu…
Deep learning has become an area of interest in most scientific areas, including physical sciences. Modern networks apply real-valued transformations on the data. Particularly, convolutions in convolutional neural networks discard phase information entirely. Many deterministic signals, such as seismic data or electrica…
JES optimizes expensive functions by considering joint entropy over input and output spaces.
problem Optimizing expensive functions with limited evaluations.
method Joint Entropy Search (JES) considers joint entropy over input and output spaces.
result JES outperforms other information-theoretic methods in Bayesian optimization.
Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) is a particle-based inference algorithm that leverages gradient information for efficient approximate inference. In this work, we enhance SVGD by leveraging preconditioning matrices, such as the Hessian and Fisher information matrix, to incorporate geometric information into SV…
ARL uses queries to learn rewards, focusing on cost vs. reward value.
problem How to efficiently use queries to learn rewards in reinforcement learning.
method Proposed and evaluated heuristic approaches for ARL in multi-armed bandits and MDPs.
result Challenging aspects of ARL highlighted, including intractability of value computation.
Study proves value of non-Markovian games with partial, asymmetric info.
problem Value of non-Markovian Dynkin games with partial and asymmetric information.
method Probabilistic and functional analytic approach based on Sion's min-max theorem.
result Existence of optimal strategies for both players in randomised stopping times.
We investigate the impact of available information on the estimation of the default probability within a generalized structural model for credit risk. The traditional structural model where default is triggered when the value of the firm's asset falls below a constant threshold is extended by relaxing the assumption of…
Pref-SHAP explains preferences using Shapley values.
problem Challenging problem of preference explanation in machine learning.
method Shapley value-based model explanation framework for pairwise comparison data.
result Richer and more insightful explanations obtained over baseline.
LASLA improves multiple testing accuracy with network-structured data.
problem Efficiently incorporating complex side information into multiple testing.
method Locally adaptive structure learning algorithm (LASLA) integrating auxiliary information.
result LASLA asymptotically controls FDR and enhances power with side information.
The novel unseen classes can be formulated as the extreme values of known classes. This inspired the recent works on open-set recognition \cite{Scheirer_2013_TPAMI,Scheirer_2014_TPAMIb,EVM}, which however can have no way of naming the novel unseen classes. To solve this problem, we propose the Extreme Value Learning (E…
Proposes QNN to protect input privacy in neural networks.
problem Protecting input privacy in neural networks.
method Quaternion-valued neural network (QNN) to hide input information.
result QNN effectively protects input privacy without significant accuracy loss.
Entropy Search (ES) and Predictive Entropy Search (PES) are popular and empirically successful Bayesian Optimization techniques. Both rely on a compelling information-theoretic motivation, and maximize the information gained about the argmax of the unknown function; yet, both are plagued by the expensive computatio…
New framework predicts time series with missing values without imputation.
problem Predicting time series with missing values, especially when there's no ground truth for missing data.
method CRIB framework, combining attention mechanism and consistency regularization.
result CRIB framework predicts accurately even under high missing rates.
Improved method for encoding contingency tables reduces mutual information bias.
problem Mutual information bias in measuring label similarity.
method Improved method for encoding contingency tables to reduce information cost.
result Better bound on reduced mutual information in typical use cases.
A new acquisition function RMES improves Bayesian optimization performance.
problem Improper evaluation of mutual information in MES leads to suboptimal performance.
method Developed rectified MES (RMES) and used stochastic gradient ascent with reparameterization.
result RMES shows consistent improvement over MES in benchmarks and real-world problems.
Policy evaluation is a key process in reinforcement learning. It assesses a given policy using estimation of the corresponding value function. When using a parameterized function to approximate the value, it is common to optimize the set of parameters by minimizing the sum of squared Bellman Temporal Differences errors…
AES uses α-divergence to select informative points for BO, improving optimization performance.
problem Optimizing complex functions with limited evaluations.
method AES uses α-divergence to select points based on dependency with global maximum.
result AES outperforms other information-based acquisition functions in various experiments.
Efficiently computes quasiconcave envelope with limited data.
problem Approximating unknown quasiconcave function with partial information.
method Solves value problem and interpolation problem with polynomial and logarithmic LPs.
result Efficiently computes quasiconcave envelope with limited data.
The vast majority of optimization and online learning algorithms today require some prior information about the data (often in the form of bounds on gradients or on the optimal parameter value). When this information is not available, these algorithms require laborious manual tuning of various hyperparameters, motivati…