A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Modeling climate change costs with stochastic interest rates shows inequality, but funding abatement can reduce this.
We define risk-free portfolios using three gauge invariant differential operators that require such portfolios to be insensitive to price changes, to be self-financing, and to produce a zero real return so there are no risk-free profits. This definition identifies the risk-free rate as the return of an infinitely diver…
This article derives prognostic expressions for the evolution of globally aggregated economic wealth, productivity, inflation, technological change, innovation and growth. The approach is to treat civilization as an open, non-equilibrium thermodynamic system that dissipates energy and diffuses matter in order to sustai…
An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time V…
This paper presents empirical evidence using recently developed techniques in econophysics suggesting that the degree of long-range dependence in interest rates depends on the conduct of monetary policy. We study the term structure of interest rates for the US and find evidence that global Hurst exponents change dramat…
High future discounting rates favor inaction on present expending while lower rates advise for a more immediate political action. A possible approach to this key issue in global economy is to take historical time series for nominal interest rates and inflation, and to construct then real interest rates and finally obta…
Model for dynamic relational data with regime changes.
We propose a Markov chain model for credit rating changes. We do not use any distributional assumptions on the asset values of the rated companies but directly model the rating transitions process. The parameters of the model are estimated by a maximum likelihood approach using historical rating transitions and heurist…
Python tool detects economic crises from S&P500 correlation data.
For those concerned with the long-term value of their accounts, it can be a challenge to plan in the present for inflation-adjusted economic growth over coming decades. Here, I argue that there exists an economic constant that carries through time, and that this can help us to anticipate the more distant future: global…
Focusing on a small set of proteins that i) fold in a concerted, all-or-none fashion and ii) do not contain knots or slipknots, we show that the Gauss linking integral, the torsion and the number of sequence-distant contacts provide information regarding the folding rate. Our results suggest that the global topology/ge…
LNUCB-TA improves MAB performance by dynamically adjusting exploration rates and recognizing spatiotemporal patterns.
New algorithm for nonstationary multi-armed bandits with optimal performance.
Actor-critic algorithms converge to an ODE as data samples change dynamically.
Study explores embedding signature-changing manifolds into higher-dimensional spaces.
This paper examines how ESG factors influence sovereign bond yields and credit ratings.
The paper uses AI to analyze ECG data, revealing age-related changes and identifying key features.
Study shows non-orientable manifolds restrict signature-changing metrics globally.
Many real-world networks are complex dynamical systems, where both local (e.g., changing node attributes) and global (e.g., changing network topology) processes unfold over time. Local dynamics may provoke global changes in the network, and the ability to detect such effects could have profound implications for a numbe…
Person re-identification (re-id), an emerging problem in visual surveillance, deals with maintaining entities of individuals whilst they traverse various locations surveilled by a camera network. From a visual perspective re-id is challenging due to significant changes in visual appearance of individuals in cameras wit…
Novel approach combines local and global brain changes for AD prediction.
Study uses machine learning to analyze patient survey data for Lyme disease.
Rate change calculations in the literature involve deterministic methods that measure the change in premium for a given policy. The definition of rate change as a statistical parameter is proposed to address the stochastic nature of the premium charged for a policy. It promotes the idea that rate change is a property o…
Graph neural networks help assess how global changes affect plant-pollinator networks.
A successful response to climate change needs vast investments in low-carbon research, energy, and sustainable development. Governments can drive research, provide environmental regulation, and accelerate global development, but the necessary low-carbon investments of 2-3% GDP have yet to materialise. A new strategy to…
Study predicts global trade impacts using deep learning during the COVID-19 period.
There is intense interest in understanding the stochastic and dynamical properties of the global Foreign Exchange (FX) market, whose daily transactions exceed one trillion US dollars. This is a formidable task since the FX market is characterized by a web of fluctuating exchange rates, with subtle inter-dependencies wh…
We investigate the dynamics of growth models in terms of dynamical system theory. We analyse some forms of knowledge and its influence on economic growth. We assume that the rate of change of knowledge depends on both the rate of change of physical and human capital. First, we study model with constant savings. The mod…
This paper tackles global Nash equilibrium in non-convex multi-player games.
TADA detects anomalies in time series using topological data analysis.
In finance, one usually deals not with prices but with growth rates , defined as the difference in logarithm between two consecutive prices. Here we consider not the trading volume, but rather the volume growth rate , the difference in logarithm between two consecutive values of trading volume. To this end…
We give sufficient conditions for a -local diffeomorphism between Fréchet spaces to be a global one. We extend the Clarke's theory of generalized gradients to the more general setting of Fréchet spaces. As a consequence, we define the Chang Palais-Smale condition for Lipschitz functions and show that a functio…
The study examines how global economic policy uncertainty affects crude oil futures volatility.
New method calibrates false detection rates in sequential change detection.
This study examined how the correlation and network structure of 30 global indices and 145 local Korean indices belonging to the KOSPI 200 have changed during the 13-year period, 2000-2012. The correlations among the indices were calculated. The results showed that although the average correlations of the global indice…
Dual labor market model explains low inflation despite low unemployment.
Changes in the capital structure before and after the global financial crisis for SMEs are studied, emphasizing their financing problems, distinguishing between internal financing and external financing determinants. The empirical research bears upon 158 small and medium-sized firms listed on Shenzhen and Shanghai Stoc…
Proves lower discount rates are needed for future losses.
GAIL with neural networks converges to global optima and has a known rate.
Paper analyzes convergence rates of two time-scale AC and NAC algorithms.
CCVA adjusts for climate change impacts on financial valuation.
The study explores spacetimes with changing spatial curvature, leading to topological transitions.
Study analyzes Airbnb booking lead times during global crises using a new metric.
We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analogue of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify th…
The monitoring of large dynamic networks is a major chal- lenge for a wide range of application. The complexity stems from properties of the underlying graphs, in which slight local changes can lead to sizable variations of global prop- erties, e.g., under certain conditions, a single link cut that may be overlooked du…
Study optimal investment under imitation of decision-changing rates.
The aim of the present paper is to establish a global theory of conformal changes in Finsler geometry. Under this change, we obtain the relationships between the most important geometric objects associated to and the corresponding objects associated to , being the Finsl…
The telegraph process models a random motion with finite velocity and it is usually proposed as an alternative to diffusion models. The process describes the position of a particle moving on the real line, alternatively with constant velocity or . The changes of direction are governed by an homogeneous Poisso…