A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Simplified LSTM models improve sentiment analysis on Twitter debate data.
The paper models financial markets using information theory to minimize information.
This paper demonstrates the usefulness and importance of the concept of honest times to financial modeling. It studies a financial market with asset prices that follow jump-diffusions with negative jumps. The central building block of the market model is its growth optimal portfolio (GOP), which maximizes the growth ra…
Public debates are a common platform for presenting and juxtaposing diverging views on important issues. In this work we propose a methodology for tracking how ideas flow between participants throughout a debate. We use this approach in a case study of Oxford-style debates---a competitive format where the winner is det…
This paper provides a methodology for fast and accurate pricing of the long-dated contracts that arise as the building blocks of insurance and pension fund agreements. It applies the recursive marginal quantization (RMQ) and joint recursive marginal quantization (JRMQ) algorithms outside the framework of traditional ri…
PEAR dynamically reconfigures agent roles to prevent persistent biases in multi-agent debates.
Mixed membership factorization is a popular approach for analyzing data sets that have within-sample heterogeneity. In recent years, several algorithms have been developed for mixed membership matrix factorization, but they only guarantee estimates from a local optimum. Here, we derive a global optimization (GOP) algor…
The branching problem for a couple of non-compatible Lie algebras and their parabolic subalgebras applied to generalized Verma modules was recently discussed in \cite{ms}. In the present article, we employ the recently developed F-method, \cite{KOSS1}, \cite{KOSS2} to the couple of non-compatible Lie algebras $({\LieGt…
Advocates for Marr's levels of analysis to unify machine learning debates.
First-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to cli…
We are in the middle of a complex debate as to whether Economics is really a proper natural science. The 'Discussion & Debate' issue of this Euro. Phys. J. Special Topic volume is: 'Can economics be a Physical Science?' I discuss some aspects here.
To make AI systems broadly useful for challenging real-world tasks, we need them to learn complex human goals and preferences. One approach to specifying complex goals asks humans to judge during training which agent behaviors are safe and useful, but this approach can fail if the task is too complicated for a human to…
Every year at the United Nations, member states deliver statements during the General Debate discussing major issues in world politics. These speeches provide invaluable information on governments' perspectives and preferences on a wide range of issues, but have largely been overlooked in the study of international pol…
We propose a novel method for fact-checking on knowledge graphs based on debate dynamics. The underlying idea is to frame the task of triple classification as a debate game between two reinforcement learning agents which extract arguments -- paths in the knowledge graph -- with the goal to justify the fact being true (…
A deep-learning inference accelerator is synthesized from a C-language software program parallelized with Pthreads. The software implementation uses the well-known producer/consumer model with parallel threads interconnected by FIFO queues. The LegUp high-level synthesis (HLS) tool synthesizes threads into parallel FPG…
Sentiment Analysis of microblog feeds has attracted considerable interest in recent times. Most of the current work focuses on tweet sentiment classification. But not much work has been done to explore how reliable the opinions of the mass (crowd wisdom) in social network microblogs such as twitter are in predicting ou…
We propose a novel method for automatic reasoning on knowledge graphs based on debate dynamics. The main idea is to frame the task of triple classification as a debate game between two reinforcement learning agents which extract arguments -- paths in the knowledge graph -- with the goal to promote the fact being true (…
The goal of this article is to inspire data scientists to participate in the debate on the impact that their professional work has on society, and to become active in public debates on the digital world as data science professionals. How do ethical principles (e.g., fairness, justice, beneficence, and non-maleficence) …
How technology affects growth or employment has long been debated. With a hiatus, the debate revived once again in the form of how Information and Communications Technology, as a form of new technology, exerts on productivity and employment. Information and Communications Technology perceived as General Purpose Technol…
This study models FOMC policy decisions using debate-based LLMs.
Machine learning (ML) is increasingly deployed in real world contexts, supplying actionable insights and forming the basis of automated decision-making systems. While issues resulting from biases pre-existing in training data have been at the center of the fairness debate, these systems are also affected by technical a…
Granger causality reviewed and advanced for complex data.
LLMs add value in commodity portfolio construction when information set and implementation rules are held fixed.
To promote economic stability, finance should be studied as a hard science, where scientific methods apply. When a trading strategy is proposed, the underlying model should be transparent and defined robustly to allow other researchers to understand and examine it thoroughly. Like any hard sciences, results must be rep…
Potential Future Exposure (PFE) is a standard risk metric for managing business unit counterparty credit risk but there is debate on how it should be calculated. The debate has been whether to use one of many historical ("physical") measures (one per calibration setup), or one of many risk-neutral measures (one per num…
Foreign policy analysis has been struggling to find ways to measure policy preferences and paradigm shifts in international political systems. This paper presents a novel, potential solution to this challenge, through the application of a neural word embedding (Word2vec) model on a dataset featuring speeches by heads o…
This expository paper is a tribute to Ekkehart Kröner's results on the intrinsic non-Riemannian geometrical nature of a single crystal filled with point and/or line defects. A new perspective on this old theory is proposed, intended to contribute to the debate around the still open Kröner's question: "what are the dyna…
MakerDAO's governance is centralized despite its decentralized claim.
With a point of departure in the concept "uncomfortable knowledge," this article presents a case study of how the American Planning Association (APA) deals with such knowledge. APA was found to actively suppress publicity of malpractice concerns and bad planning in order to sustain a boosterish image of planning. In th…
Study uses few-shot learning to analyze claims and arguments in German debate on arms deliveries.
New framework models uncertainty in classification debates.
This paper reviews bank performance determinants, highlighting future research areas.
Proves lower discount rates are needed for future losses.
The logic of uncertainty is not the logic of experience and as well as it is not the logic of chance. It is the logic of experience and chance. Experience and chance are two inseparable poles. These are two dual reflections of one essence, which is called co~event. The theory of experience and chance is the theory of c…
The Information Plane theory predicts autoencoders do not compress input information.
In the current environment of financial distress, many governments are likely to soon become major holders of financial assets, but the policy debate focuses only on the likelihood and extent of short-term market stabilization. This paper shows that government intervention and propping up are likely to lead to long-ter…
Researchers have used from 30 days to several years of daily returns as source data for clustering financial time series based on their correlations. This paper sets up a statistical framework to study the validity of such practices. We first show that clustering correlated random variables from their observed values i…
Controversies around race and machine learning have sparked debate among computer scientists over how to design machine learning systems that guarantee fairness. These debates rarely engage with how racial identity is embedded in our social experience, making for sociological and psychological complexity. This complexi…
Bayesian neural networks integrate uncertainty into neural networks for improved performance.
What makes a paper independently reproducible? Debates on reproducibility center around intuition or assumptions but lack empirical results. Our field focuses on releasing code, which is important, but is not sufficient for determining reproducibility. We take the first step toward a quantifiable answer by manually att…
We offer a graphical interpretation of unfairness in a dataset as the presence of an unfair causal path in the causal Bayesian network representing the data-generation mechanism. We use this viewpoint to revisit the recent debate surrounding the COMPAS pretrial risk assessment tool and, more generally, to point out tha…
Paper resolves the debate on process vs. outcome supervision in reinforcement learning.
Recent advances in the understanding of time series permit to clarify seasonalities and cycles, which might be rather obscure in today's literature. A theorem due to P. Cartier and Y. Perrin, which was published only recently, in 1995, and several time scales yield, perhaps for the first time, a clear-cut definition of…
Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have revolutionized numerous applications, but the demand for ever more performance remains unabated. Scaling DNN computations to larger clusters is generally done by distributing tasks in batch mode using methods such as distributed synchronous SGD. Among the issues with this approach is th…
The concept of causality has a controversial history. The question of whether it is possible to represent and address causal problems with probability theory, or if fundamentally new mathematics such as the do-calculus is required has been hotly debated, In this paper we demonstrate that, while it is critical to explic…
Group fairness is an important concern for machine learning researchers, developers, and regulators. However, the strictness to which models must be constrained to be considered fair is still under debate. The focus of this work is on constraining the expected outcome of subpopulations in kernel regression and, in part…
The use of the trading halts is a practice common to all markets. However, the advantages and the disadvantages of the measurements are regularly discussed. The partisans think that the trading suspensions or the price limits make it possible to the investors to have time to react to the new information. The detractors…
Geospatial ML models need special evaluation methods due to their unique challenges.