FAKI improves gradient-free inference for inverse problems.
problem Expensive forward models without gradients.
method Temperature annealing with normalizing flows.
result Dramatic improvements in accuracy over EKI.
SKT improves EKI for Bayesian inverse problems with non-Gaussian targets.
problem Efficiently solving Bayesian inverse problems with expensive forward models and non-Gaussian posterior distributions.
method Embedding EKI and FAKI within a Bayesian annealing scheme to adapt tpCN sampler.
result Significant improvements in convergence rate compared to standard SMC and pCN.
Flow Annealing Posterior Sampling unifies stochastic-process regression and PDE inverse problems.
problem Function-space posterior sampling for stochastic processes and inverse problems.
method Flow Annealing Posterior Sampling (FAPS) using pretrained function-space flow-matching priors.
result Coherent posterior samples with accurate uncertainty quantification.
EnKG solves inverse problems without derivatives, using diffusion models.
problem Solving inverse problems with derivative-free methods.
method Ensemble Kalman Diffusion Guidance (EnKG) using diffusion models.
result EnKG can solve inverse problems with only forward model evaluations.
AdaAnn optimizes annealing for efficient probability density approximation.
problem Efficiently approximating complex probability distributions with multiple modes.
method AdaAnn is an adaptive annealing scheduler that adjusts temperature increments based on KL divergence.
result AdaAnn improves computational efficiency in variational inference and parameter estimation.
This study improves state estimation for nonlinear systems using conditional normalizing flows.
problem Performance degradation of traditional filtering algorithms in nonlinear systems with non-Gaussian uncertainty.
method Uses conditional normalizing flows with MLP, transformer, or state-space models for state and parameter estimation.
result Optimal-transport-inspired kinetic loss mitigates overparameterization in flows.
We present a framework for Nesterov's accelerated gradient flows in probability space to design efficient mean-field Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for Bayesian inverse problems. Here four examples of information metrics are considered, including Fisher-Rao metric, Wasserstein-2 metric, Kalman-Wasserstein m…
Develops inverse extended Kalman filter for predicting adversarial steps.
problem Predicting adversarial Kalman filter estimates from limited information.
method Proposes inverse extended Kalman filter (I-EKF) for non-linear systems with unknown inputs.
result Derives I-EKF with theoretical stability guarantees and consistency proofs.
Develops inverse EKF for non-linear systems with stability guarantees and learning unknown dynamics.
problem Estimating adversary's Kalman-filtered estimates in highly non-linear systems.
method Proposes inverse extended Kalman filter (I-EKF) for second-order, Gaussian sum, and dithered forward models. Uses reproducing kernel Hilbert space for learning unknown dynamics.
result Derives theoretical stability guarantees for inverse second-order EKF.
A new EnKF method for elliptic PDEs reduces dimensionality for accurate state estimation.
problem Elliptic PDEs in fluid flows make traditional EnKF regularization ineffective.
method Low-rank factorization of the Kalman gain based on the Jacobian spectrum.
result Inference can be performed in a low-dimensional subspace of the state space.
Paper analyzes ensemble Kalman updates for effective dimension and localization.
problem Why small ensemble sizes work well in inverse problems and data assimilation.
method Non-asymptotic analysis of ensemble Kalman updates, focusing on effective dimension and localization.
result Rigorously explains why a small ensemble size is sufficient when prior covariance has moderate effective dimension.
CRAFT improves on existing methods for sampling complex distributions.
problem Sampling from complex probability distributions.
method Combines SMC with variational inference using normalizing flows.
result Improves on Annealed Flow Transport Monte Carlo and MCMC-based Stochastic Normalizing Flows.
Data assimilation for subsurface flow using latent diffusion models shows that ensemble Kalman methods may overestimate posterior uncertainty, while Monte Carlo sampling is more reliable.
problem Data assimilation for subsurface flow
method Ensemble Kalman smoother and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling
result Monte Carlo sampling is more reliable than ensemble Kalman methods
Develops inverse unscented Kalman filter for non-linear systems.
problem Estimating defender's state in adversarial settings.
method Formulated inverse unscented Kalman filter (I-UKF) and reproducing kernel Hilbert space-based UKF (RKHS-UKF).
result Proposed filters are conservative estimators with upper-bounded error covariance.
Two proofs of Kalman Theorem using flows of vector fields.
problem Classical result of Control Theory (Kalman Theorem).
method Two proofs using flows of vector fields.
result New criteria for local controllability of non-linear systems.
New filters improve radar target inference in complex scenarios.
problem Improving radar target inference in highly non-linear system models.
method Developed inverse cubature Kalman filter (I-CKF), inverse quadrature Kalman filter (I-QKF), and inverse cubature-quadrature Kalman filter (I-CQKF) for non-linear systems.
result Numerical experiments show improved estimation accuracy compared to existing methods.
A new method for estimating adversarial strategies in nonlinear systems.
problem Inferring an intelligent adversarial agent's strategy in highly nonlinear systems.
method Formulated inverse cognition as a nonlinear Gaussian state-space model and developed an inverse UKF (IUKF) system.
result The estimation error of IUKF converges and closely follows the recursive Cramér-Rao lower bound.
NVA combines variational posteriors, annealing, and natural-gradient learning for multimodal optimization.
problem Finding multiple global and local modes in nonconvex objectives.
method NVA integrates variational posteriors, annealing, and natural-gradient learning.
result NVA outperforms gradient descent and evolution strategies on simulations and real-world problems.
New method uses EKI for efficient Bayesian inference in high-dimensional problems.
problem Efficient inference for high-dimensional posterior distributions in physics-informed neural networks.
method Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) for high-dimensional posterior inference.
result EKI-based inference provides comparable uncertainty estimates to HMC-based methods but with reduced computational cost.
Bayesian method learns optimal momentum for landmark matching.
problem Finding a diffeomorphism between two sets of landmarks.
method Ensemble Kalman filter for derivative-free Bayesian inverse method.
result Efficient algorithm for various target shapes.
DPMC improves inverse problem solving with MCMC, reducing error in noisy conditions.
problem Inaccurate posterior approximation in inverse problems with high noise levels.
method DPMC uses Annealed MCMC to sample through a series of intermediate distributions, reducing accumulated error.
result DPMC outperforms DPS in various inverse problems, reducing error and evaluations.
Adaptive operator learning reduces costs in Bayesian inverse problems.
problem Reducing computational costs in Bayesian inverse problems governed by PDEs.
method Adaptive operator learning framework that gradually reduces modeling error.
result The approach significantly reduces computational costs while maintaining inversion accuracy.
Proposes efficient sampling methods for solving linear inverse problems.
problem Solving linear inverse problems with computational efficiency and accuracy.
method Higher-order Langevin diffusion with pre-conditioning and annealing.
result Provable sampling from posterior distributions with accelerated convergence.
Ensemble Kalman methods improve climate model calibration from noisy observations.
problem Calibrating parameters in complex climate models from noisy data.
method Comparing ensemble Kalman methods for efficiency in climate model calibration.
result Ensemble Kalman methods are more efficient and robust for parameter learning in climate models.
The paper analyzes the InfoNCE loss under different temperature schedules using Langevin dynamics.
problem Understanding the dynamics of InfoNCE loss under fixed versus annealed temperature schedules.
method Modeling embedding evolution under Langevin dynamics on a compact Riemannian manifold, with theoretical guarantees for convergence.
result Slow logarithmic inverse-temperature schedules ensure convergence to globally optimal representations, while faster schedules risk suboptimal minima.
A Kalman filter reduces valuation risk in business valuation models.
problem Reducing valuation risk in business valuation models.
method Recursive FCFF model with Kalman filtering to adjust WACC.
result Significant reduction in valuation risk by implementing Kalman filter.
The standard probabilistic perspective on machine learning gives rise to empirical risk-minimization tasks that are frequently solved by stochastic gradient descent (SGD) and variants thereof. We present a formulation of these tasks as classical inverse or filtering problems and, furthermore, we propose an efficient, g…
AFT combines AIS, SMC, and NFs for better Monte Carlo estimates.
problem Estimating normalizing constants of complex probability distributions.
method Annealed Flow Transport (AFT) integrates AIS, SMC, and normalizing flows.
result AFT improves Monte Carlo estimates of normalizing constants and expectations.
Study shows annealing with adaptive schedule reduces mode collapse in NFs for parameter estimation.
problem Mode collapse in normalizing flows for multimodal distributions.
method Annealing with an adaptive schedule based on effective sample size (ESS).
result Our approach reduces mode collapse and converges marginal likelihood faster than MCMC methods.
In this paper, we propose a novel uniform generalization bound on the time and inverse temperature for stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) in a non-convex setting. While previous works derive their generalization bounds by uniform stability, we use Rademacher complexity to make our generalization bound indepen…
We describe an adaptation of the simulated annealing algorithm to nonparametric clustering and related probabilistic models. This new algorithm learns nonparametric latent structure over a growing and constantly churning subsample of training data, where the portion of data subsampled can be interpreted as the inverse …
We solve a multi-period portfolio optimization problem using D-Wave Systems' quantum annealer. We derive a formulation of the problem, discuss several possible integer encoding schemes, and present numerical examples that show high success rates. The formulation incorporates transaction costs (including permanent and t…
This study improves uncertainty estimation in FWI using SVGD with annealing and PCA.
problem Uncertainty quantification in FWI solutions.
method Annealed Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) combined with multi-scale strategy and PCA.
result Improved uncertainty estimation in FWI solutions.
Mathematical analysis shows annealing prevents mode collapse in Gaussian mixtures.
problem Mode collapse in variational inference for multimodal distributions.
method Analyzed annealing strategies for Gaussian mixtures, derived formulas, and tested on neural networks.
result Appropriately chosen annealing schemes can robustly prevent mode collapse.
FAB combines flows with AIS to approximate complex distributions.
problem Challenges in flow-based methods, especially on complex targets.
method Combines flows with AIS, using α-divergence for training.
result FAB produces accurate approximations to complex distributions.
Paper tackles noisy and expensive likelihoods in complex models.
problem Calibrating parameters in complex models with noisy and expensive evaluations.
method Ensemble Kalman methods and Langevin-based methods for inverse problems.
result Ensemble Kalman methods perform well in noisy conditions, while Langevin methods are adversely affected.
Study finds non-monotonic Value of Information in dynamic multi-market monopoly.
problem Investigates non-monotonicity in Value of Information for a price-setting monopolist.
method Uses a Bayesian inverse problem with Kalman-Bucy-Stratonovich filter in a dynamic discrete model.
result Non-monotonic relationship between signal variance and Value of Information.
This work benchmarks diffusion model-based samplers for Bayesian inverse problems.
problem Optimizing diffusion models for uncertainty quantification in Bayesian inverse problems.
method Introduces three benchmark problems and a unified framework for diffusion model-based posterior sampling.
result Provides insights into strengths and limitations of diffusion model-based samplers.
DECAF optimizes molecular graphs for ensemble properties, improving drug design accuracy.
problem Designing molecules with ensemble properties rather than single conformations.
method DECAF uses Boltzmann-expected design with decoupled annealing flows to optimize molecular graphs.
result DECAF optimizes molecular graphs to shift ensemble properties towards targets, improving accuracy over single-conformer methods.
In order to integrate uncertainty estimates into deep time-series modelling, Kalman Filters (KFs) (Kalman et al., 1960) have been integrated with deep learning models, however, such approaches typically rely on approximate inference techniques such as variational inference which makes learning more complex and often le…
Gradient-free framework for Bayesian experimental design in complex systems.
problem Optimal experimental design in systems where gradient information is unavailable.
method Combines EKI and ALDI for optimization and sampling, with approximations for scalable utility estimation.
result Demonstrates robust, accurate, and efficient experimental design in various complex systems.
EWFM trains continuous flows with only energy evaluations, improving sample quality with fewer computations.
problem Efficiently sampling from complex, high-dimensional Boltzmann distributions using only energy evaluations.
method Energy-Weighted Flow Matching (EWFM) using importance sampling and iterative/annealed training.
result Improved sample quality with up to 3 orders of magnitude fewer energy evaluations compared to existing methods.
FlowVAT improves variational inference for multi-modal distributions.
problem Mode-seeking behavior and collapse in variational inference for complex posteriors.
method Conditional tempering approach for normalizing flow variational inference.
result FlowVAT outperforms traditional and adaptive annealing methods in multi-modal distributions, finding more modes and achieving better ELBO values.
AF improves sampling from high-dimensional, multi-modal distributions.
problem Sampling from high-dimensional, multi-modal distributions is challenging.
method Annealing Flow (AF) using Continuous Normalizing Flow (CNF) with dynamic Optimal Transport (OT) objective and annealing procedures.
result AF significantly improves training efficiency and stability, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
New method for efficient uncertainty quantification in DeepONets.
problem Efficient uncertainty quantification for DeepONets with limited and noisy data.
method Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI) for ensembles of DeepONets.
result Improved uncertainty estimates for DeepONet predictions.
Proposes a new method for nonlinear Bayesian updates using ensemble kernel regression.
problem Nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian updates for complex systems.
method Combines Kalman filtering for observed components and kernel density estimation for unobserved components, with subsampling and clustering.
result Reduces estimation errors in highly nonlinear scenarios compared to standard linear updates.
GNet uses Gaussian processes for scalable, flexible neural networks.
problem Large-scale predictive modeling with high computational and storage costs.
method GNet employs Gaussian processes with nonparametric activation functions and a fast algorithm for training and predictions.
result GNet achieves competitive performance across various test problems, including nonlinear function prediction and real-world data regression.
GNet uses Gaussian processes for scalable, flexible neural networks.
problem Large-scale predictive modeling with high computational and storage costs.
method GNet employs Gaussian processes with nonparametric activation functions and a fast algorithm for efficient training and predictions.
result GNet achieves competitive performance across various test problems, including nonlinear function prediction and real-world data regression.