Principles of financial product synthesis from a few basic financial products constitute an interesting research topic inspired by Islamic finance. We make an effort to answer general questions that should be answered before starting to investigate the main issues concerning this topic with the formalization of financi…
Proposes CEP to better represent financial products' carbon impact.
problem Binary 'Green' label inadequately represents financial products' carbon impact.
method Introduces Carbon Equivalence Principle (CEP) for financial products.
result Financial products' carbon impact can be included as a linked term sheet.
Adaptive time decay functions improve financial product recommendation accuracy.
problem Inaccurate recommendations due to static historical data in finance.
method Time-dependent collaborative filtering with personalized decay functions.
result Significant improvements over state-of-the-art benchmarks in financial product recommendation.
We develop an algebraic framework for the description and analysis of financial behaviours, that is, behaviours that consist of transferring certain amounts of money at planned times. To a large extent, analysis of financial products amounts to analysis of such behaviours. We formalize the cumulative interest compliant…
Paper presents a novel time series clustering algorithm for financial inclusion.
problem Difficulty in understanding consumer financial behavior without restrictive credit scoring.
method Developed a novel time series clustering algorithm.
result Allows institutions to offer unique financial products based on customer needs.
Quality-designed consumer products are easy to recognize. Wouldn't it be great if the quality of financial products became just as apparent? This paper is addressed to financial practitioners. It provides an informal introduction to Quantitative Structuring -- a technology of manufacturing quality financial products (i…
We propose a stylized model of production and exchange in which long-term investors set their production decision over a horizon τ , the "time to produce", and are liquidity constrained, while financial investors trade over a much shorter horizon δ (<< τ ) and are therefore more duly informed on the exogenous shocks af…
Model assesses how supply chain disruptions affect financial stability.
problem Systemic risk in production networks and its financial implications.
method Data-driven econo-financial stress-testing framework combining supply chain and interbank networks.
result Increase of up to 28% in financial systemic risk due to production network contagion.
Financial markets provide a natural quantitative lab for understanding some of the most advanced human behaviours. Among them is the use of mathematical tools known as financial instruments. Besides money, the two most fundamental financial instruments are bonds and equities. More than 30 years ago Mehra and Prescott f…
Study reveals clusters of resilient and vulnerable Spanish agri-food firms post-Ukraine-Russia war.
problem Financial resilience of agri-food companies in Spain during the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
method Cluster analysis using centred log-ratios for compositional data of financial ratios.
result Increase in resilient firms by 2023, highlighting sectoral adaptation to economic challenges.
Proposes a Carbon Equivalence Principle for financial products to align incentives and drive sustainability.
problem Align financial market incentives with carbon emissions to limit global warming.
method Introduces a Carbon Equivalence Principle requiring financial products to describe equivalent carbon flows alongside cash flows.
result Transparency of carbon flows in financial products can align incentives and reduce future costs, necessitating project re-structuring and financial net-zero designs.
Quantitative structuring is a rigorous framework for the design of financial products. We show how it incorporates traditional investment ideas while supporting a more accurate expression of clients' views. We touch upon adjacent topics regarding the safety of financial derivatives and the role of pricing models in pro…
Proposes a comprehensive framework for financial product lead recommendations using graph representation learning and link prediction.
problem Challenges in surface lead recommendations for financial products due to changing market scenarios and difficulty in capturing holder's mindset.
method Bi-partite graph representation of financial holders and funds, GraphSage model for learning representations, link prediction model for ranking recommendations.
result The proposed graph ML solution outperforms baseline by 42%, 22%, and 14% in hit rate for top-k recommendations (50, 100, 200) and 18%, 19%, and 18% on unseen holders.
We present an algorithm for the decomposition of periodic financial return data into orthogonal factors of expected return and "systemic", "productive", and "nonproductive" risk. Generally, when the number of funds does not exceed the number of periods, the expected return of a portfolio is an affine function of its pr…
The study finds cash productivity predicts stock performance in a specific subset of firms.
problem Predicting future stock performance using cash productivity.
method Using financial and market data, calculated cash returns as a proxy for operational efficiency, and tested a long-only strategy on Nasdaq-listed non-financial firms.
result Cash productivity has significant predictive power in a handpicked portfolio but limited across the broader Nasdaq universe.
A framework for analyzing financial systems under scenario constraints.
problem Quantifying worst-case and best-case performance in financial systems.
method Quantitative automata-based framework integrating event history automata and weighted finance finite automata.
result Exact calculation of upper and lower payoff bounds with interpretable witness event histories.
AI agent predicts industry and product/service codes for companies.
problem Manual curation of company data is expensive and prone to errors.
method Hierarchical multi-class industry code classifier with multi-label product/service code classifier.
result High accuracy (92-96%) achieved with limited labeled data.
Approximates discounted moments for financial products using polynomial expansions.
problem Approximating discounted moments of stochastic processes for financial applications.
method High-order power series expansion of the infinitesimal generator.
result Error decreases to around 10 to 100 times machine precision for higher orders.
Observation of the workings of productive organizations shows that the characteristics of a trade, backed by nature given to a technological environment, determine the productive combination implemented by the decision maker, and the structure of the operating cycle which is related. The choice of the production functi…
Decomposes financial networks to reveal cause-effect hierarchies during crises.
problem Complex financial networks are hard to interpret due to Granger causality.
method Helmholtz-Hodge-Kodaira decomposition to separate networks into rotational and gradient components.
result Precious metals and pharmaceutical products are identified as causal drivers during crises.
Study compares financial and gambling markets, finding similarities and potential applications.
problem Lack of comprehensive study on gambling markets compared to financial markets.
method Comprehensive comparison of five aspects: platform, product, procedure, participant, and strategy.
result Well-established financial strategies can be applied to gambling markets, particularly in peer-to-peer betting exchanges.
Develops a two-layer model to design mortgage assistance products.
problem Designing effective mortgage assistance products to improve household resilience.
method Two-layer approach: simulation and optimization.
result Shows how the approach can design and evaluate mortgage assistance products.
Paper evaluates whether AI is a bubble or a productivity revolution.
problem Determining if AI investments are a bubble or a sustainable technology.
method Hybrid review and diagnostic framework combining asset pricing foundations and modern econometric methods.
result AI investments show both genuine fundamentals and bubble-like fragilities.
Enhanced Gordon growth model for valuing financial products.
problem Valuation of financial products with time-varying interest rates and dividends.
method Dynamic Gordon growth model with time-varying spot interest rate and dividends, risk-neutral valuation, locally risk-minimizing strategy.
result Pricing and hedging formulas for dividend-paying European options and equity-linked life insurance products.
Productivity and credit limits affect aggregate production in non-monotonic ways.
problem Understanding how aggregate production is influenced by individual characteristics and financial constraints.
method Analytical proof of non-monotonic effects of productivity and credit limits on aggregate production in a general equilibrium model.
result Equilibrium aggregate production can be non-monotonic in both individual productivity and credit limit.
Labor productivity was studied at the microscopic level in terms of distributions based on individual firm financial data from Japan and the US. A power-law distribution in terms of firms and sector productivity was found in both countries' data. The labor productivities were not equal for nation and sectors, in contra…
The paper compares machine learning methods with traditional techniques for pricing and sensitivities of financial products with path-dependent structures.
problem Evaluating financial products with early-termination clauses, especially those with path-dependent structures.
method The paper compares regression methods including randomized recurrent and feed-forward neural networks, and a novel approach using signatures of the underlying price process, with traditional polynomial basis functions for pricing and sensitivities.
result Machine learning algorithms often match the accuracy and efficiency of traditional methods for Asian and look-back options, while randomized neural networks are best for callable certificates.
This paper tackles hidden technical debts in fair ML systems for Fintech.
problem Building fair machine learning systems in financial services.
method Examining key stages of ML system development and deployment.
result Technical debts exist in deploying fair ML systems in Fintech.
DeRisk improves credit risk prediction using deep learning.
problem Challenges in training deep neural networks with real-world financial data.
method DeRisk, an effective deep learning framework for credit risk prediction.
result DeRisk outperforms statistical learning methods in credit risk prediction.
Study shows financial literacy, social capital, and financial tech positively impact financial inclusion of Indonesian students.
problem Financial literacy, social capital, and financial technology's impact on financial inclusion of Indonesian students.
method Quantitative research using questionnaires distributed to 100 students from 7 private colleges in Tangerang, Indonesia.
result Financial literacy, social capital, and financial technology have a positive and significant influence on financial inclusion.
New automated market makers for multi-asset trading.
problem Liquidity management in multi-asset trading.
method Derived from self-financing transactions and rebalancing principles.
result Constant product market maker as a special case.
Generative AI boosts analyst reports but increases forecast errors.
problem Improving financial analyst reports with AI.
method Natural experiment using FactSet's AI platform.
result AI-assisted reports are more comprehensive but lead to higher forecast errors.
Financial fraud detection in digital banking requires reasoning over multiple heterogeneous event streams.
problem Financial fraud detection in digital banking requires reasoning over multiple heterogeneous event streams.
method Multi-Stream Fraud Transformer (MSFT) architecture that encodes each event stream with independent Transformer encoders and fuses their representations through configurable mechanisms.
result Sequence models significantly outperform gradient-boosted trees operating on aggregated features.
Since beginning of the 2008 financial crisis almost half a trillion euros have been spent to financially assist EU member states in taxpayer-funded bail-outs. These crisis resolutions are often accompanied by austerity programs causing political and social friction on both domestic and international levels. The questio…
New risk theory for 'Pay-for-Performance' models.
problem How to price and hedge operational and financial risks in new business models.
method Developed a new risk theory and calculation method for 'Pay-for-Performance' models.
result Presented a model for determining risk premiums including both financial and operational risks.
Bayesian MS-VAR model for pricing equity-linked life insurance products.
problem Pricing and hedging equity-linked life insurance products on maximum of several assets.
method Introduces Bayesian Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) process to model economic variables and insured's lifetime.
result Obtains net single premiums and hedging formulas for equity-linked life insurance products.
We analyze four structured products that have caused severe losses to investors in recent years. These products are: return optimization securities, yield magnet notes, reverse exchangeable securities, and principal-protected notes. We describe the basic structure of these products, analyze them probabilistically using…
The relation between time series irreversibility and entropy production has been recently investigated in thermodynamic systems operating away from equilibrium. In this work we explore this concept in the context of financial time series. We make use of visibility algorithms to quantify in graph-theoretical terms time …
Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of extreme agricultural financial risk for corn and soybean production in the US: Value …
The paper calculates prices for multi-step barrier options under the Black-Scholes model.
problem Calculating prices for multi-step barrier options with varying barriers and time steps.
method Derives a general, explicit expression for option prices using the Black-Scholes model and a multi-step reflection principle.
result Derives a multi-step reflection principle that generalizes the reflection principle of Brownian motion.
InvestorBench benchmarks LLM agents in financial tasks.
problem Lack of a comprehensive benchmark for LLM-based financial agents.
method Developed a benchmark with diverse financial tasks and datasets.
result Evaluated LLM agents' performance across various financial products and market environments.
LightAutoML automates ML for a large financial services company.
problem Building high-quality ML models for a complex financial ecosystem.
method Developed an AutoML system tailored to a large European financial services company's unique requirements.
result LightAutoML outperformed experienced data scientists and other open-source solutions.
The paper values and hedges EPS products with jumps and default risks.
problem Valuation and risk management of EPS products under financial crises and default risks.
method Developed pricing frameworks using jump-diffusion and default models, derived closed-form formulas, and analysed hedging strategies.
result Quantified residual losses from counterparty default risk and defined default-adjusted premiums.
New method for pricing financial products without no-arbitrage condition.
problem Pricing financial products without relying on no-arbitrage conditions.
method Convex duality and Fenchel conjugate for estimating super-replication cost.
result Endogenous weak no-arbitrage condition (AIP) leads to finite prices.
Quantum probability theory constructs Martingales for non-Brownian financial models.
problem Constructing Martingales for financial models using fractional Brownian motion.
method Quantum probability theory and Wick product.
result Quantum probability framework allows for Martingale construction without Brownian integrals.
Heterogeneity of economic agents is emphasized in a new trend of macroeconomics. Accordingly the new emerging discipline requires one to replace the production function, one of key ideas in the conventional economics, by an alternative which can take an explicit account of distribution of firms' production activities. …
The pricing of options, warrants and other derivative securities is one of the great success of financial economics. These financial products can be modeled and simulated using quantum mechanical instruments based on a Hamiltonian formulation. We show here some applications of these methods for various potentials, whic…
Financial derivatives have often been criticized as casino-style betting instruments. It turns out that many naive ways of making them are indeed equivalent to gambling. Fortunately, this inadvertent effect can be understood and prevented. We present a theory of product design which achieves that.