A new method for exponentially weighted moving models using approximations.
problem Efficiently updating moving averages for time series data.
method Approximates EWMM using a fixed window and quadratic term, solving non-growing problems.
result Approximation produces estimates similar to exact EWMM.
We introduce a covariance matrix estimator that both takes into account the heteroskedasticity of financial returns (by using an exponentially weighted moving average) and reduces the effective dimensionality of the estimation (and hence measurement noise) via techniques borrowed from random matrix theory. We calculate…
We propose an explicit recursive method to approximate a power-law with a finite sum of weighted exponentials. Applications to moving averages with long memory are discussed in relationship with stochastic volatility models.
New moving average adapts weight dynamically based on polynomial and wavefunction.
problem Lagging traditional moving averages in adjusting to changes in data.
method Develops a moving average with weight as a polynomial of a wavefunction from an eigenproblem.
result Immediate 'switch' without lag, adapting to changes in data.
Two new PCA variants improve financial data analysis.
problem Numerical instability and nonstationarity in PCA for finance.
method Iterated and exponentially weighted moving PCA variants using Ogita-Aishima iteration.
result Improved stability and adaptability in financial data analysis.
Improved averaging method for noisy observations converges strongly.
problem Noisy observations from random dynamical systems require stable estimates.
method Introduced p-EMA, a modified exponential moving average with subharmonic weight decay. result Stochastic convergence guarantees for p-EMA under mild assumptions. Auto-regressive models improve smoothing efficiency with exponentially tapered windows.
problem Improving time-series smoothing efficiency.
method An auto-regressive formulation for time-series smoothing.
result Auto-regressive models result in moving means with exponentially tapered windows.
Improved diffusion models for image synthesis with better training dynamics.
problem Uneven and ineffective training in diffusion models.
method Redesigned network layers to preserve activation, weight, and update magnitudes.
result Significantly better networks at equal computational complexity, improving FID to 1.81.
BEMA reduces bias in EMA, leading to faster convergence and better performance.
problem Stochasticity in language model fine-tuning destabilizes training.
method Bias-Corrected Exponential Moving Average (BEMA) augmentation of EMA.
result BEMA leads to significantly improved convergence rates and final performance.
Classifying streaming data requires the development of methods which are computationally efficient and able to cope with changes in the underlying distribution of the stream, a phenomenon known in the literature as concept drift. We propose a new method for detecting concept drift which uses an Exponentially Weighted M…
A new method normalizes flow mixtures for better inference across different data types.
problem Inference failure across diverse posterior geometries in normalizing flows.
method Introduces a two-stage framework with a stable global weighting mechanism based on sEMA.
result Achieves consistent NLL improvements and stable weight trajectories over baselines.
This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over time using a modified form of the Gram-Charlier density in which skewness and ku…
A new accelerated method with simpler momentum update rules.
problem Optimizing parameters in machine learning models.
method Proposes a novel accelerated stochastic gradient method with simpler momentum update rules.
result The method outperforms Sgdm and Adam in practical problems.
Improved score-based models generate high-quality images up to 256x256.
problem Training score-based models for high-resolution images is unstable and limited.
method Theoretical analysis, exponential moving average of model weights.
result Score-based models can generate high-fidelity images up to 256x256.
In this note we discuss the mathematical tools to define trend indicators which are used to describe market trends. We explain the relation between averages and moving averages on the one hand and the so called exponential moving average (EMA) on the other hand. We present a lot of examples and give the definition of t…
PACE optimizes training for averaged language models, improving performance.
problem How to optimize training for averaged language model iterates.
method Formulated as an optimal-control problem, solved for minimizing error of the average with a penalty on intervention size.
result PACE improves the limiting squared error of the iterate-average estimator by an arbitrarily large factor on some instances.
AdEMAMix optimizer improves model performance and convergence speed.
problem Suboptimal use of single EMA in momentum-based optimizers.
method Proposes AdEMAMix, a modified Adam optimizer with a mixture of two EMAs.
result Empirically shows gradients can remain relevant for tens of thousands of steps, leading to faster convergence and lower minima.
Adaptive estimation of alpha-Stable distribution and Hurst exponent for nonstationary time series.
problem Nonstationary time series require adaptive models to avoid bias.
method Moving estimator with exponentially weakening weights of old values, optimized using EMA of absolute central moments.
result Continuous adaptive estimation of alpha-Stable distribution and Hurst exponent for market stability evaluation.
Dynamic trading strategies, in the spirit of trend-following or mean-reversion, represent an only partly understood but lucrative and pervasive area of modern finance. Assuming Gaussian returns and Gaussian dynamic weights or signals, (e.g., linear filters of past returns, such as simple moving averages, exponential we…
Adaptive estimation for nonstationary time series reduces computational cost.
problem Estimating parameters of nonstationary time series with varying parameters over time.
method Moving exponential moving ML estimator for scale parameter estimation.
result Significantly improved log-likelihoods compared to standard estimation.
High fidelity behavior prediction of intelligent agents is critical in many applications. However, the prediction model trained on the training set may not generalize to the testing set due to domain shift and time variance. The challenge motivates the adoption of online adaptation algorithms to update prediction model…
Adaptive t-distribution estimates nonstationary time series using moving moments.
problem Nonstationary time series with varying dependence structure.
method Moving estimator optimizing a weighted log-likelihood, using exponential moving averages for moments.
result Evolution of ν parameter in Student's t-distribution, capturing tail behavior and extreme events.
Optimal weight windows are found by projecting the origin onto a convex polytope.
problem Finding the best weight windows for a weighted moving average smoother.
method Formulated as a quadratic program and projection onto a convex polytope.
result Optimal weight windows are symmetrical and decrease in weight away from the center.
Improving optimization for iterate-averaged language models
problem How to optimize the averaged model returned by Language Model pipelines
method Formulating optimizer design as an optimal-control problem
result Proven convergence rate and strict improvement in squared error
Generative diffusion models forecast implied vol surfaces without arbitrage issues.
problem Forecasting arbitrage-free implied volatility surfaces using historical data with path-dependent dynamics.
method Generative diffusion model (DDPM) with conditional training on market variables, including EWMAs and returns. Dynamic penalty scheme based on SNR to enforce arbitrage-free surfaces.
result Superior performance in volatility forecasting compared to existing methods.
Detects crypto pump-and-dump schemes with a thresholding-based model.
problem Detecting genuine anomalies from minor trading fluctuations.
method Combining threshold-based criteria with EWMA and volatility measures.
result Balances high true-positive detection with minimal noise.
Paper analyzes how EMA improves SGD in linear regression.
problem Understanding the effectiveness of EMA in training deep learning models.
method Established risk bound for online SGD with EMA in linear regression.
result SGD with EMA has smaller variance error and exponentially decaying bias error.
In this paper we describe a procedure to simplify any given triangulation of the 3-sphere using Pachner moves. We obtain an explicit exponential-type bound on the number of Pachner moves needed for this process. This leads to a new recognition algorithm for the 3-sphere.
Machine learning models outperform traditional technical analysis in Bitcoin trading.
problem Maximizing profits in the Bitcoin market using trading signals.
method Comparison of machine learning models (LightGBM, LSTM) and technical analysis strategies (EMA, MACD+ADX).
result LSTM model achieved a 65.23% cumulative return over a year, significantly outperforming other strategies.
In several recently proposed stochastic optimization methods (e.g. RMSProp, Adam, Adadelta), parameter updates are scaled by the inverse square roots of exponential moving averages of squared past gradients. Maintaining these per-parameter second-moment estimators requires memory equal to the number of parameters. For …
The random matrix theory method of planar Gaussian diagrammatic expansion is applied to find the mean spectral density of the Hermitian equal-time and non-Hermitian time-lagged cross-covariance estimators, firstly in the form of master equations for the most general multivariate Gaussian system, secondly for seven part…
The study analyzes how neural reward models learn features for policy optimization in a Gaussian single-index model.
problem Reward modeling in policy optimization and its impact on downstream value.
method Two-stage neural reward model: first learns hidden direction, then fits readout layer.
result For any feature-learning temperature above a dimension-free threshold, a constant fraction of neurons recover the hidden direction.
Extends online learning to metric spaces using exponential weights.
problem Online learning in metric spaces.
method Exponentially weighted average forecaster, barycenters, Jensen's inequality, measure contraction property.
result Results in a statistical learning framework.
The recently proposed Temporal Ensembling has achieved state-of-the-art results in several semi-supervised learning benchmarks. It maintains an exponential moving average of label predictions on each training example, and penalizes predictions that are inconsistent with this target. However, because the targets change …
Enhances trading signals using image analysis and weighted moving averages.
problem Improving price trend trading strategies in financial markets.
method Image-induced importance weights applied to weighted moving averages of trading signals.
result Significant enhancement of price trend trading signals with improved portfolio selection.
Introduces Exponentially Weighted Signature for better path representation.
problem Uniform treatment of historical information in signatures.
method Generalizes EFM signature to bounded linear operators, enabling contextualised temporal weighting.
result EWS is the unique solution to a linear controlled differential equation and generalizes state-space models.
In this paper, we obtain a property of the expectation of the inverse of compound Wishart matrices which results from their orthogonal invariance. Using this property as well as results from random matrix theory (RMT), we derive the asymptotic effect of the noise induced by estimating the covariance matrix on computing…
Paper analyzes sparse aggregation in GLMs with Kullback-Leibler risk bounds.
problem Sparse aggregation in GLMs for parameter approximation.
method Exponential weighted aggregation scheme with Kullback-Leibler risk bounds.
result Sharp oracle inequality for Kullback-Leibler risk with leading constant 1 and minimax-optimal rate of aggregation.
Polynomial bound on Reidemeister moves for each link type.
problem Recognizing whether a given link diagram represents a specific link type.
method Showed existence of a polynomial pK such that any two diagrams of a link type differ by at most pK(c1)+pK(c2) Reidemeister moves. result The problem of recognising a link type is in NP and can be completed in exponential time.
We build a multiassets heterogeneous agents model with fundamentalists and chartists, who make investment decisions by maximizing the constant relative risk aversion utility function. We verify that the model can reproduce the main stylized facts in real markets, such as fat-tailed return distribution and long-term mem…
We introduce an autoregressive-type model with self-modulation effects for a foreign exchange rate by separating the foreign exchange rate into a moving average rate and an uncorrelated noise. From this model we indicate that traders are mainly using strategies with weighted feedbacks of the past rates in the exchange …
We describe financial systems as condensates, similar to Bose-Einstein condensates, and calculate statistical distributions following from the model. The calculated distributions of investments into speculated financial assets are found equivalent to a Pareto distribution, and the calculated distributions of the price …
We consider the problem of detecting abrupt changes in the distribution of a multi-dimensional time series, with limited computing power and memory. In this paper, we propose a new, simple method for model-free online change-point detection that relies only on fast and light recursive statistics, inspired by the classi…
Paper explores exact recovery of communities in weighted graphs using Gaussian and exponential distributions.
problem Exact recovery of communities in weighted graphs with Gaussian and exponential distributions.
method Introduces a new semi-metric to describe conditions for exact recovery and analyzes conditions for both complete and incomplete graphs.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for exact recovery are asymptotically tight and applicable to both complete and incomplete graphs.
A new model adapts Hurst parameter in real-time for volatility forecasting.
problem Capturing volatility dynamics and clustering in financial markets.
method Rough Bergomi model with EWMA-driven time-dependent Hurst parameter.
result Empirical validation shows superior performance in diverse asset classes.
STORM-PG uses momentum for faster policy gradient updates.
problem Improving policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning.
method Introduces STORM-PG, a SARAH-based algorithm with exponential moving average.
result Achieves O(1/ε3) sample complexity, matching best-known rate. This paper develops a new theory for ensemble learning beyond variance reduction.
problem Ensemble learning's effectiveness for stable estimators is not fully explained by variance reduction.
method Develops a general weighting theory for ensemble learning, formalizing ensembles as linear operators and introducing geometric and spectral constraints.
result Structured weights can outperform uniform averaging by reshaping approximation geometry and redistributing spectral complexity.
Guyon-Lekeufack model accurately predicts market volatility.
problem Modeling and predicting market volatility accurately.
method Path-dependent volatility model with weighted past price returns and squared volatility.
result Wellposedness of the coupled system of stochastic differential equations for all parameter values.