New algorithm learns LQR with regret using Langevin dynamics and excitation.
arXiv research
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New mechanism found for power laws including Zipf's law.
ESE-FN improves elderly activity recognition accuracy.
Multiplex Network Hawkes model for systemic risk measurement
GAttNHP predicts future events in temporal knowledge graphs by encoding long-range dependencies and handling mutual excitation.
Tiled Squeeze-and-Excite improves channel attention with local spatial context.
We present an agent behavior based microscopic model that induces jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in the price process of a traded asset. We transfer dynamics of thermally activated jumps of an unexcited/ excited two state system discussed in the context of quantum mechanics to agent socio-economic behavior an…
Attention mechanism is a hot spot in deep learning field. Using channel attention model is an effective method for improving the performance of the convolutional neural network. Squeeze-and-Excitation block takes advantage of the channel dependence, selectively emphasizing the important channels and compressing the rel…
We introduce a Markovian single point process model, with random intensity regulated through a buffer mechanism and a self-exciting effect controlling the arrival stream to the buffer. The model applies the principle of the Hawkes process in which point process jumps generate a shot-noise intensity field. Unlike the Ha…
Machine learning speeds up quantum chemical calculations of excited states.
New self-exciting random evolutions (SEREs) for modeling traffic and transport processes.
Model detects market anomalies using a Hawkes process with hidden Markov chain.
The excited states of polyatomic systems are rather complex, and often exhibit meta-stable dynamical behaviors. Static analysis of reaction pathway often fails to sufficiently characterize excited state motions due to their highly non-equilibrium nature. Here, we proposed a time series guided clustering algorithm to ge…
Machine learning aids excited-state molecular dynamics studies.
ARL and Hawkes processes improve market-making strategies with variable volatility.
We examine on the static and dynamical properties of quantum knots in a Bose-Einstein condensate. In particular, we consider the Gross-Pitaevskii model and revise a technique to construct ab initio the condensate wave-function of a generic torus knot. After analysing its excitation energy, we study its dynamics relatin…
Optimal reinsurance strategy analyzed for dynamic risk model with self- and externally-excited jumps.
Paper presents a method for estimating Hawkes process parameters.
In Levin-Wen (LW) models, a wide class of exactly solvable discrete models, for two dimensional topological phases, it is relatively easy to describe only single fluxon excitations, but not the charge and dyonic as well as many-fluxon excitations. To incorporate charged and dyonic excitations in (doubled) topological p…
The paper develops a new model for order book dynamics using Hawkes processes.
3D ConvNets improved with Project & Excite for medical imaging segmentation.
Paper explores ML for UV spectra, showing transferability in chemical space.
Deep QMC method accurately computes electronic excited states.
Attention is an increasingly popular mechanism used in a wide range of neural architectures. The mechanism itself has been realized in a variety of formats. However, because of the fast-paced advances in this domain, a systematic overview of attention is still missing. In this article, we define a unified model for att…
Repelling random walks improve graph-based sampling efficiency.
In order to disentangle the internal dynamics from exogenous factors within the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model, we present an effective measure of endogeneity. Inspired from the Hawkes model, this measure is defined as the average fraction of events that are triggered due to internal feedback mechanism…
A new model predicts discrete events with flexible, nonparametric baseline and excitation.
Price changes are induced by aggressive market orders in stock market. We introduce a bivariate marked Hawkes process to model aggressive market order arrivals at the microstructural level. The order arrival intensity is marked by an exogenous part and two endogenous processes reflecting the self-excitation and cross-e…
Lower bounds and upper bounds on sample complexity for identifying linear dynamical systems.
Paper analyzes coexisting hidden and self-excited attractors in an economic system.
This paper concerns the problem of learning control policies for an unknown linear dynamical system to minimize a quadratic cost function. We present a method, based on convex optimization, that accomplishes this task robustly: i.e., we minimize the worst-case cost, accounting for system uncertainty given the observed …
We provide a general probabilistic framework within which we establish scaling limits for a class of continuous-time stochastic volatility models with self-exciting jump dynamics. In the scaling limit, the joint dynamics of asset returns and volatility is driven by independent Gaussian white noises and two independent …
Optimal noise excitation for linear system identification reduces sample complexity.
Excited-state dynamics simulations are a powerful tool to investigate photo-induced reactions of molecules and materials and provide complementary information to experiments. Since the applicability of these simulation techniques is limited by the costs of the underlying electronic structure calculations, we develop an…
Paper forecasts financial trading durations using a new point process model.
Motor control is a set of time-varying muscle excitations which generate desired motions for a biomechanical system. Muscle excitations cannot be directly measured from live subjects. An alternative approach is to estimate muscle activations using inverse motion-driven simulation. In this article, we propose a deep rei…
The Hawkes process is a simple point process, whose intensity function depends on the entire past history and is self-exciting and has the clustering property. The Hawkes process is in general non-Markovian. The linear Hawkes process has immigration-birth representation. Based on that, Fierro et al. recently introduced…
Develops a goodness-of-fit test for self-exciting processes.
FinStressTS creates synthetic benchmarks for financial forecasting, revealing model weaknesses.
The paper offers a checklist for comparing human and machine visual perception.
When an online learning algorithm is used to estimate the unknown parameters of a model, the signals interacting with the parameter estimates should not decay too quickly for the optimal values to be discovered correctly. This requirement is referred to as persistency of excitation, and it arises in various contexts, s…
PPPD framework extracts physical characterizations from stochastic mechanical systems.
Study optimal dividend and capital injection in insurance portfolios with self-exciting claim arrivals.
Paper introduces MSPD for multivariate risk processes with dependencies.
In this paper we consider a mean-field model of interacting diffusions for the monetary reserves in which the reserves are subjected to a self- and cross-exciting shock. This is motivated by the financial acceleration and fire sales observed in the market. We derive a mean-field limit using a weak convergence analysis …
This study defines a multivariate Self--Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The conditions for stationarity of the nonlinear MSETARX models is provided. In particular, the efficiency of an adaptive parameter estimation algorithm…
We propose an extension to Hawkes processes by treating the levels of self-excitation as a stochastic differential equation. Our new point process allows better approximation in application domains where events and intensities accelerate each other with correlated levels of contagion. We generalize a recent algorithm f…
We present a Hawkes model approach to foreign exchange market in which the high frequency price dynamics is affected by a self exciting mechanism and an exogenous component, generated by the pre-announced arrival of macroeconomic news. By focusing on time windows around the news announcement, we find that the model is …