In this paper we propose a quadratic programming model that can be used for calculating the term structure of electricity prices while explicitly modeling startup costs of power plants. In contrast to other approaches presented in the literature, we incorporate the startup costs in a mathematically rigorous manner with…
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48 results for “Electric Grids”
Study examines barriers to grid-connected battery systems in Spain, finding high cycle cost remains main obstacle.
problem Barriers to grid-connected battery systems in Spain's deregulated electricity market.
method Utilization analysis and concept of 'potentially profitable utilization time' introduced.
result High cycle cost remains the main barrier for grid-connected battery systems in Spain.
Study finds cherry-picking load shaping strategies outperforms others in reducing grid CO2 emissions.
problem Lack of detailed counterfactual data makes it hard to assess load shaping strategies' effectiveness.
method Calibrated granular ERCOT simulations for counterfactual analysis of load shaping strategies.
result LMP-based load shaping outperforms other strategies in reducing grid CO2 emissions.
Multi-Stage Fault Warning for Large Electric Grids Using Anomaly Detection and Machine Learningcs.LG
In the monitoring of a complex electric grid, it is of paramount importance to provide operators with early warnings of anomalies detected on the network, along with a precise classification and diagnosis of the specific fault type. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-stage early warning system prototype for electr…
Study uses machine learning to optimize power generation in electrical grids.
problem Optimizing power generation in electrical grids while respecting physical and engineering constraints.
method Two formulations of ACOPF as machine learning problems: direct prediction and constraint prediction.
result Validated machine learning approaches on two benchmark grids.
Paper introduces reinforcement learning for managing power grids.
problem Balancing power flows and maintaining grid stability in real-time.
method Reinforcement Learning applied to power network operations.
result Demonstrates feasibility of machine learning in power grid management.
Power grids are one of the most important components of infrastructure in today's world. Every nation is dependent on the security and stability of its own power grid to provide electricity to the households and industries. A malfunction of even a small part of a power grid can cause loss of productivity, revenue and i…
We study the structure of locational marginal prices in day-ahead and real-time wholesale electricity markets. In particular, we consider the case of two North American markets and show that the price correlations contain information on the locational structure of the grid. We study various clustering methods and intro…
The potential of recovering the topology of a grid using solely publicly available market data is explored here. In contemporary whole-sale electricity markets, real-time prices are typically determined by solving the network-constrained economic dispatch problem. Under a linear DC model, locational marginal prices (LM…
Fast, interpretable electricity consumption scenarios for individual consumers.
problem Estimating unknown electricity consumption time series for reinforcement planning.
method Predictive Clustering Trees (PCTs) for efficient and interpretable scenario generation.
result PCTs generate accurate electricity consumption scenarios at least 7 times faster than state-of-the-art methods.
Paper proposes model to assess financial risk of grid-ignited wildfires.
problem Financial risk and solvency threats from grid-ignited wildfires.
method Integrated model to evaluate damage costs and risk levels.
result Identifies high-risk areas for preemptive actions.
Locational Marginal Pricing aims to free UK power markets.
problem Unfree and regulated power markets.
method Implementing Locational Marginal Pricing.
result Increased economic freedom, reduced prices, decreased losses, incentivized investment.
Novel probabilistic models forecast residential heating and electricity demand at hourly resolution.
problem Accurate hourly forecasting of residential heating and electricity demand.
method Probabilistic deep learning models trained on gas-heated region data.
result Significant improvement in forecast accuracy compared to NREL's ResStock model.
System identifies power grid location from media recordings.
problem Identifying the origin of power distribution grid from media recordings.
method Cascaded SVM and pole-matching classifiers for grid identification.
result Cascaded system improves accuracy by 15.57%.
Paper provides a method to price electricity storage contracts using COS technique.
problem Valuation of electricity storage contracts considering physical and operational constraints.
method Uses Fourier-based COS method to price contracts based on stochastic polynomial process.
result The COS method accurately and efficiently prices electricity storage contracts.
Unsupervised detection and open-set classification of fast-ramped flexibility activation eventseess.SY
Automates detection of fast-ramped flexibility events for DSOs.
problem Monitoring and supervising flexibility activations in power systems.
method Unsupervised detection and open-set classification.
result Automatically identifies critical flexibility activations for early intervention.
We present a simple, yet realistic, agent-based model of an electricity market. The proposed model combines the spot and balancing markets with a resolution of one minute, which enables a more accurate depiction of the physical properties of the power grid. As a test, we compare the results obtained from our simulation…
Model detects electricity theft with high accuracy.
problem Detecting electricity theft on imbalanced datasets.
method Multi-head self-attention mechanism with dilated convolutions and binary mask.
result Achieved AUC of 0.926, improving previous work by 17%.
Using Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning to Estimate the Livelihood Impact of Electricity Accessecon.GN
Satellite imagery and ML improve livelihood measurements and estimate electrification's impact.
problem Sparse data hinders policy development and evaluation.
method Satellite imagery, machine learning, and ML inference techniques.
result Grid access improves rural asset wealth by 0.17 standard deviations.
Electricity is bought and sold in wholesale markets at prices that fluctuate significantly. Short-term forecasting of electricity prices is an important endeavor because it helps electric utilities control risk and because it influences competitive strategy for generators. As the "smart grid" grows, short-term price fo…
Study compares forecasting methods for distribution grid loads.
problem Improving load prediction accuracy in distribution grids.
method Evaluation of probabilistic forecasting techniques on distribution grid load prediction.
result Hierarchical techniques enhance bottom-level forecast accuracy.
In this paper we propose a tractable quadratic programming formulation for calculating the equilibrium term structure of electricity prices. We rely on a theoretical model described in [21], but extend it so that it reflects actually traded electricity contracts, transaction costs and liquidity considerations. Our nume…
AutoPQ automates quantile forecasting for smart grids, reducing workload and environmental impact.
problem Accurate and unbiased uncertainty quantification in probabilistic forecasting for smart grid operations.
method AutoPQ uses a conditional Invertible Neural Network (cINN) to generate quantile forecasts from point forecasts, automating model selection and hyperparameter optimization.
result AutoPQ outperforms state-of-the-art methods while reducing computational effort and environmental impact.
Deep Recurrent Electricity Theft Detection in AMI Networks with Random Tuning of Hyper-parameterscs.LG
Modern smart grids rely on advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) networks for monitoring and billing purposes. However, such an approach suffers from electricity theft cyberattacks. Different from the existing research that utilizes shallow, static, and customer-specific-based electricity theft detectors, this paper p…
Active learning reduces smart meter data needs for better electric load predictions.
problem Inaccurate and costly electric load predictions due to insufficient data.
method Active learning to collect more informative data subsets.
result Electric load predictions can be made with about half the data using active learning.
This paper uses deep reinforcement learning to automate electric transmission voltage control.
problem Automating voltage control in electric transmission systems.
method Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) applied to voltage control, with a novel DQN modification.
result DRL can automate voltage control at scale, but more research is needed.
Study shows increased VRE penetration reduces electricity prices and volatility.
problem Impact of increased variable renewable energy on electricity prices and volatility.
method Hourly, real-time data from six ISOs, quantile and skew t-distribution regressions.
result Increased VRE penetration is associated with decreased system electricity price and volatility in most ISOs.
Machine learning predicts CO2 emissions in power grids, reducing uncertainty.
problem Forecasting CO2 emission intensities in power grids.
method Developed a machine learning algorithm using LASSO, feature selection, and Softmax weighted average.
result Marginal emissions are independent of DK2 zone conditions, suggesting external generators.
Adaptive Methods for Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting During COVID-19 Lockdown in Francestat.AP
Adaptive models improve electricity demand forecasting during lockdown.
problem Poor load forecasting due to sudden consumption changes during lockdown.
method Adaptive generalized additive models with Kalman filters and expert aggregation.
result Significant reduction in prediction errors compared to traditional models.
This paper optimizes a power-to-heat system using reinforcement learning for cost minimization under uncertain conditions.
problem Optimizing a power-to-heat system with fluctuating renewable energy sources.
method Stochastic optimal control, reinforcement learning (Q-learning).
result Reinforcement learning provides an efficient solution to the optimization problem.
AutoML improves electricity demand forecasting models.
problem Optimizing GAM and state-space model parameters for short-term forecasting.
method Automated online generalized additive model selection using DRAGON package.
result The approach enhances predictive performance of adaptive models.
Paper proposes transparent reporting of algorithmic energy usage to promote environmental sustainability.
problem Need for transparent reporting of algorithmic energy usage for environmental sustainability.
method Developed a Python package to make analyses of energy usage accessible to individual researchers, localized to specific power grids, and compared with global benchmarks.
result Demonstrated the use of automatically-generated Energy Usage Reports in model-choice for machine learning.
The topology of a power grid affects its dynamic operation and settlement in the electricity market. Real-time topology identification can enable faster control action following an emergency scenario like failure of a line. This article discusses a graphical model framework for topology estimation in bulk power grids (…
Predictability of Power Grid Frequencyphysics.soc-ph
A predictor improves power grid frequency forecasts up to one hour.
problem Improving frequency forecast for better power system stability.
method Developed a weighted-nearest-neighbor (WNN) predictor.
result Forecasts for up to one hour are more precise than averaged daily profiles.
Electric vehicles (EVs) have been gaining popularity due to their environmental friendliness and efficiency. EV charging station networks are scalable solutions for supporting increasing numbers of EVs within modern electric grid constraints, yet few tools exist to aid the physical configuration design of new networks.…
Paper proposes a method to locate power grid recordings using ENF sequences.
problem Locating power grid recordings without concurrent power signals.
method Extract ENF sequences from power and audio recordings, develop multi-class SVM model.
result Validation of location authenticity of recordings using ENF sequences.
In recent years, probabilistic forecasts techniques were proposed in research as well as in applications to integrate volatile renewable energy resources into the electrical grid. These techniques allow decision makers to take the uncertainty of the prediction into account and, therefore, to devise optimal decisions, e…
Grid-scale batteries' bid patterns in price uncertainty markets
problem Interpreting bids from grid-scale batteries in wholesale electricity markets under price uncertainty
method Developing an asset-level model of a price-taking battery
result Empirical results deliver insights into withholding behavior, uncertainty effects, and risk management reshaping bid curves
The smart grid vision entails advanced information technology and data analytics to enhance the efficiency, sustainability, and economics of the power grid infrastructure. Aligned to this end, modern statistical learning tools are leveraged here for electricity market inference. Day-ahead price forecasting is cast as a…
A Performance Comparison of Data Mining Algorithms Based Intrusion Detection System for Smart Gridcs.CR
Random Forest outperforms other IDS algorithms in smart grids.
problem Security vulnerabilities in smart grids.
method Comparison of four data mining algorithms (Random Forest, SVM, Neural Network, and KNN) in detecting attacks.
result Random Forest outperforms other algorithms in terms of detection accuracy and efficiency.
Distribution grids currently lack comprehensive real-time metering. Nevertheless, grid operators require precise knowledge of loads and renewable generation to accomplish any feeder optimization task. At the same time, new grid technologies, such as solar photovoltaics and energy storage units are interfaced via invert…
Hydropower reduces system electricity price and volatility, especially at extreme levels.
problem Impact of hydropower on system electricity price and volatility.
method Robust statistical analysis using multiple linear regression and quantile regression.
result Hydropower reduces system electricity price and volatility, especially at extreme levels.
This paper evaluates the impact of the power extent on price in the electricity market. The competitiveness extent of the electricity market during specific times in a day is considered to achieve this. Then, the effect of competitiveness extent on the forecasting precision of the daily power price is assessed. A price…
Improved probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting models for grid integration.
problem Enhancing accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts for grid integration.
method Developed and calibrated probabilistic models using post-hoc calibration techniques.
result NGBoost model with CRUDE calibration achieves comparable performance to numerical weather prediction models.
This paper improves bidding price prediction for ancillary services markets, boosting revenues.
problem Volatility in renewable energy sources affects grid stability and revenue optimization.
method Machine learning models (SVR, DT, k-NN) and offset adjustment for pay-as-bid markets.
result The proposed approach increases potential revenues by 27.43% to 37.31% compared to baseline models.
Future grid scenario analysis requires a major departure from conventional power system planning, where only a handful of most critical conditions is typically analyzed. To capture the inter-seasonal variations in renewable generation of a future grid scenario necessitates the use of computationally intensive time-seri…
Crowdsourcing has been successfully applied in many domains including astronomy, cryptography and biology. In order to test its potential for useful application in a Smart Grid context, this paper investigates the extent to which a crowd can contribute predictive hypotheses to a model of residential electric energy con…
Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.
problem Accurate hourly electricity demand forecasting in the face of multifaceted uncertainties.
method Interpretable probabilistic mid-term forecasting model using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs).
result Highlights vulnerability of countries to extreme weather scenarios under electric heating adoption.