A theory of exceptional extreme events, characterized by their abnormal sizes compared with the rest of the distribution, is presented. Such outliers, called "dragon-kings", have been reported in the distribution of financial drawdowns, city-size distributions (e.g., Paris in France and London in the UK), in material f…
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12 results for “DRAGON”
We develop a simple test for deviations from power law tails, which is based on the asymptotic properties of the empirical distribution function. We use this test to answer the question whether great natural disasters, financial crashes or electricity price spikes should be classified as dragon kings or 'only' as black…
Study finds 'Dragon Kings' in stock market volatility during major economic crises.
problem Identifying significant deviations from normal market volatility.
method Analyzed S&P500 index volatility, categorized as Black Swans, Dragon Kings, or Negative Dragon Kings, using modified Generalized Beta and Generalized Beta Prime distributions.
result Observed 'potential' Dragon Kings that eventually turn into Negative Dragon Kings, with more pronounced phenomenon as time averaging increases.
DRAGON improves learning for rare classes in unbalanced datasets using class descriptions.
problem Learning rare classes in unbalanced datasets with deep models.
method DRAGON is a late-fusion architecture that corrects bias towards frequent classes and fuses class-descriptions to improve tail-class accuracy.
result DRAGON outperforms state-of-the-art models on new benchmarks for long-tail learning with class descriptors.
AutoML improves electricity demand forecasting models.
problem Optimizing GAM and state-space model parameters for short-term forecasting.
method Automated online generalized additive model selection using DRAGON package.
result The approach enhances predictive performance of adaptive models.
We investigate the distributions of epsilon-drawdowns and epsilon-drawups of the most liquid futures financial contracts of the world at time scales of 30 seconds. The epsilon-drawdowns (resp. epsilon- drawups) generalise the notion of runs of negative (resp. positive) returns so as to capture the risks to which invest…
New approach to Generalized Beta family using SDEs.
problem Understanding the Generalized Beta family of distributions.
method Using a mean-reverting SDE for a power of the variable, leading to a modified GB distribution.
result Provides alternative forms and cumulative distribution functions for GB distributions.
A Ph.D. thesis proposes an efficient approach for optimizing aircraft eco-design with high-dimensional mixed integer variables.
problem Optimizing aircraft eco-design with high-dimensional mixed integer variables.
method EGO optimization approach based on sequential enrichment of adaptive surrogate models, adapted for high-dimensional and mixed variable spaces.
result Effective parameterization tools significantly reduce the number of design variables, enabling optimization of complex aircraft concepts.
BDH model learns like the brain, rivaling Transformer performance.
problem Leveraging brain-like properties for machine learning.
method Scale-free biologically inspired network of neuron particles.
result BDH model achieves Transformer-like performance with interpretability.
In our study, we demonstrate the synergy effect between convolutional neural networks and the multiplicity of SMILES. The model we propose, the so-called Convolutional Neural Fingerprint (CNF) model, reaches the accuracy of traditional descriptors such as Dragon (Mauri et al. [22]), RDKit (Landrum [18]), CDK2 (Willigha…
Bardo Composer generates tabletop RPG music based on player speech.
problem Creating immersive background music for tabletop RPGs.
method Speech recognition, emotion classification, and music generation using a novel beam search algorithm.
result Generated music pieces can be accurately identified by human subjects as conveying the intended emotion.
We fill a void in merging empirical and phenomenological characterisation of the dynamical phase transitions in complex systems by identifying three of them on real-life financial markets. We extract and interpret the empirical, numerical, and semi-analytical evidences for the existence of these phase transitions, by c…