AlphaForge mines and dynamically combines alpha factors for better investment performance.
problem Inconsistency and inflexibility of fixed factor weights in alpha factor mining.
method Generative-predictive neural network for factor generation and dynamic weight adjustment.
result Demonstrated superior performance in formulaic alpha factor mining and portfolio returns.
RVRAE combines deep learning and dynamic factor models for better stock returns prediction.
problem Improving stock returns prediction in volatile markets.
method Combines dynamic factor modeling with variational recurrent autoencoder (VRAE). Uses prior-posterior learning for optimal factor model.
result RVRAE outperforms traditional methods in predicting stock returns and estimating variances.
Unified framework combines views and optimization for better portfolio management.
problem Optimizing portfolio weights with dynamic adjustment based on volatility.
method Dynamic sliding window adjusting horizon, factor estimates, BL posterior returns, and weights over time.
result Outperforms dynamic mean-variance optimization without BL views, providing stronger downside risk control.
Enhanced AI analysis predicts S&P 500 stock dynamics using various financial metrics.
problem Predicting S&P 500 stock performance with complex interplay of factors.
method Advanced financial metrics, machine learning, and integration of traditional and modern analytics.
result Enhanced predictive accuracy in market behavior and investment strategies.
Improves predictions by integrating forward-looking views into dynamic factor models.
problem Poor forecasts from historical data when dynamics change.
method Combines historical data with forward-looking views using a dynamic factor model.
result Derives optimal portfolio strategies influenced by both myopic and intertemporal factors.
Modeling dynamic user interests using neural matrix factorization.
problem Challenging extraction of valuable insights from unstructured, high-dimensional, and dynamic online content data.
method Combines matrix factorization with neural networks to model nonlinear user and content factors.
result Accurately identifies nuanced and coherent consumption patterns of Boston Globe readers over five years.
A new stock selection strategy uses combined machine learning with dynamic weighting methods.
problem Improving stock selection accuracy and performance.
method Combined machine learning algorithms with static and dynamic weighting methods.
result IC-based dynamic weighting outperforms static evaluation metrics in backtested returns and predictive performance.
PRISM-VQ combines financial priors with vector quantization for better stock prediction.
problem Predicting cross-sectional stock returns is hard due to low signal-to-noise ratios and changing market conditions.
method Integrates expert priors, vector-quantized latent factors, and dynamic factor loadings.
result Consistent improvements in cross-sectional return prediction and portfolio performance.
A robust machine learning approach forecasts U.S. Treasury yields, reducing risk for investors.
problem Noisy and uncertain U.S. Treasury yields pose risk to forecast users.
method Formulates yield curve forecasting as a distributionally robust problem, combining factor models and machine learning.
result Robust forecast combinations improve out-of-sample performance across different maturity periods.
DISTANA improves weather prediction by inferring hidden factors from temperature data.
problem Inferring hidden factors in spatiotemporal processes without supervision.
method Enhanced DISTANA architecture for spatiotemporal data, active tuning for latent state inference.
result DISTANA achieves more accurate predictions than other methods, inferring hidden factors from temperature data.
Study on liquidity dynamics in Uniswap v3 pools using statistical methods.
problem Characterize liquidity in Uniswap v3 pools.
method Functional principal component analysis (FPCA) and dynamic factor methods.
result Liquidity dynamics in Uniswap v3 pools are well-captured by a low-order Legendre polynomial basis.
Prediction of dynamical time series with additive noise using support vector machines or kernel based regression has been proved to be consistent for certain classes of discrete dynamical systems. Consistency implies that these methods are effective at computing the expected value of a point at a future time given the …
Matrix factorization is a key component of collaborative filtering-based recommendation systems because it allows us to complete sparse user-by-item ratings matrices under a low-rank assumption that encodes the belief that similar users give similar ratings and that similar items garner similar ratings. This paradigm h…
We prove that a topological contact isotopy uniquely defines a topological contact Hamiltonian. Combined with previous results from [MS11], this generalizes the classical one-to-one correspondence between smooth contact isotopies and their generating smooth contact Hamiltonians and conformal factors to the group of top…
Time series of graphs are increasingly prevalent in modern data and pose unique challenges to visual exploration and pattern extraction. This paper describes the development and application of matrix factorizations for exploration and time-varying community detection in time-evolving graph sequences. The matrix factori…
One primary task of population health analysis is the identification of risk factors that, for some subpopulation, have a significant association with some health condition. Examples include finding lifestyle factors associated with chronic diseases and finding genetic mutations associated with diseases in precision he…
Study reveals which startup valuation factors are most critical.
problem Understanding the complex factors influencing startup valuations.
method Hierarchical prediction models using decision trees and random forests.
result Identifies which factors most significantly impact startup valuations.
We investigate the impact of Knightian uncertainty on the optimal timing policy of an ambiguity averse decision maker in the case where the underlying factor dynamics follow a multidimensional Brownian motion and the exercise payoff depends on either a linear combination of the factors or the radial part of the driving…
A new method combines predictors and their lags using supervised PCA for dynamic forecasting.
problem Dynamic forecasting with many predictors.
method Supervised PCA with re-scaling and penalized methods.
result The method outperforms traditional PCA and diffusion-index approaches in prediction.
Advertising and feed ranking are essential to many Internet companies such as Facebook and Sina Weibo. Among many real-world advertising and feed ranking systems, click through rate (CTR) prediction plays a central role. There are many proposed models in this field such as logistic regression, tree based models, factor…
Conditions for hyperbolic and relatively hyperbolic extensions of free groups using automorphisms with fixed points.
problem Conditions for hyperbolic and relatively hyperbolic extensions of free groups.
method Using dynamics of outer automorphisms on the complex of free factors and investigating the geometry of the extension group.
result Conditions for hyperbolic and relatively hyperbolic extensions of free groups using automorphisms with fixed points.
New method linearizes nonlinear coupled oscillators on graphs.
problem Predicting global synchronization in nonlinear coupled oscillators on graphs.
method Latent dynamic filters learned through supervised matrix factorization.
result Latent dynamics filters enable effective prediction of global synchronization.
A new model for dynamic covariance recovery in neuroimaging data.
problem Estimating time-varying covariances in high-dimensional neuroimaging data.
method Nonconvex factorization into sparse spatial and smooth temporal components, combined with spectral initialization and gradient descent.
result The proposed method achieves linear convergence and superior performance compared to existing approaches.
Paper addresses xVA models for market-implied skew and smile.
problem Capturing market-implied skew and smile in xVA calculations.
method Developed a state-dependent SDE combining Hull-White models with RAnD technique.
result Demonstrated significant effect of skew and smile on xVA calculations.
In many applications, observed data are influenced by some combination of latent causes. For example, suppose sensors are placed inside a building to record responses such as temperature, humidity, power consumption and noise levels. These random, observed responses are typically affected by many unobserved, latent fac…
Dynamic factor analysis reveals insights into Philippine stock market dynamics.
problem Understanding complex stock market dynamics.
method Dynamic factor model using Kalman method and maximum likelihood estimation.
result Common factors extracted from the model represent market trends and volatility.
We propose the factorized action variational autoencoder (FAVAE), a state-of-the-art generative model for learning disentangled and interpretable representations from sequential data via the information bottleneck without supervision. The purpose of disentangled representation learning is to obtain interpretable and tr…
Deep neural network learns meaningful factors to predict stock returns.
problem Predicting excess returns of assets like Tesla stock.
method 5-layer deep neural network with gated activation layer to filter noise.
result Proposed model outperforms in predicting stock returns over 2,000 stocks.
Proposes iVDFM for identifying latent factors in multivariate time series.
problem Identifying latent factors in multivariate time series with structural dynamics.
method Identifiable Variational Dynamic Factor Model (iVDFM) with iVAE-style conditioning.
result Identifiable latent factors up to permutation and component-wise affine transformations.
The study examines the dynamic behavior of RMSprop and Adam algorithms.
problem Understanding the training loss curve patterns of adaptive gradient algorithms.
method Careful numerical experiments and theoretical explanations using the signGD flow.
result Adam converges smoother and faster when momentum factors are close to each other.
New method detects global factors near BBP phase transition in high-dimensional data.
problem Detecting the number of global factors in noisy high-dimensional correlation matrices.
method Iterative Global Factor (IGF) algorithm combining adaptive edge recalibration and PR delocalization filter.
result IGF algorithm successfully detects global factors near BBP transition, improving over eigenvalue-only methods.
We develop theoretical foundations of Resonator Networks, a new type of recurrent neural network introduced in Frady et al. (2020) to solve a high-dimensional vector factorization problem arising in Vector Symbolic Architectures. Given a composite vector formed by the Hadamard product between a discrete set of high-dim…
An ideal cognitively-inspired memory system would compress and organize incoming items. The Kanerva Machine (Wu et al, 2018) is a Bayesian model that naturally implements online memory compression. However, the organization of the Kanerva Machine is limited by its use of a single Gaussian random matrix for storage. Her…
New method improves sales forecasting accuracy using tensor factorization.
problem Improving sales forecasting accuracy in retail businesses.
method Advanced Temporal Latent-factor Approach to Sales forecasting (ATLAS) using tensor factorization.
result Accurate and individualized prediction for sales across multiple stores and products.
Paper predicts international trade flows using machine learning and factorization models.
problem Predicting international bilateral trade flows with PTAs.
method Two-stage approach combining SHAP Explainer and Factorization Machine models.
result Enhanced predictive accuracy and deeper insights into trade dynamics.
Dynamic risk factor model improves portfolio performance in high dimensions.
problem Dynamic portfolio allocation in high-dimensional financial markets.
method Time-varying sparsity on factor loadings, sequential learning of parameters and volatilities.
result Significant portfolio performance improvements and higher utility gains.
Model for dynamic relational data with regime changes.
problem Handling abrupt changes in dynamic relational data.
method Factorized fusion shrinkage model with global-local shrinkage priors.
result Posterior distribution attains minimax optimal rate up to logarithmic factors.
The paper analyzes market risk factors for a mining company using a VAR model with stable distribution.
problem Understanding mid- and long-term dynamics of market risk factors for a mining company.
method Two-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model with α-stable distribution, identifying two regimes.
result Derives dynamics of copper price in PLN, crucial for company risk exposure.
New algorithm provably converges to second-order stationary points in NMF.
problem Understanding convergence to local minima in NMF.
method Multiplicative weight update dynamics, concurrent updates, and simplex reduction.
result Provable convergence to second-order stationary points.
A new multi-factor model improves commodity pricing accuracy.
problem Enhancing accuracy in commodity pricing by integrating multiple risk factors.
method A four-factor model using Kalman filter for simultaneous estimation and state variable filtering.
result The four-factor model outperforms existing models in capturing futures term structures and crude oil pricing.
Mainstream financial econometrics methods are based on models well tuned to replicate price dynamics, but with little to no economic justification. In particular, the randomness in these models is assumed to result from a combination of exogenous factors. In this paper, we present a model originating from game theory, …
There is broad interest in creating RL agents that can solve many (related) tasks and adapt to new tasks and environments after initial training. Model-based RL leverages learned surrogate models that describe dynamics and rewards of individual tasks, such that planning in a good surrogate can lead to good control of t…
New algorithm reduces pricing error by a factor of T^2/3.
problem Optimal pricing under non-Lipschitz demand with unknown jumps and atoms.
method Conservative-Markdown Redirect-UCB Pricing, combining estimation, probing, and redirection.
result Achieves optimal regret of O(T^2/3), matching lower bounds.
Improved model predicts wildfire spread on slopes.
problem Accurate prediction of wildfire spread on slopes.
method Combines Rothermel model, Huygens' principle, and advanced techniques.
result More precise model of wildfire propagation.
Modern intelligent transportation systems provide data that allow real-time dynamic demand prediction, which is essential for planning and operations. The main challenge of prediction of dynamic Origin-Destination (O-D) demand matrices is that demands cannot be directly measured by traffic sensors; instead, they have t…
The paper solves multi-period portfolio selection with constraints using a dynamic factor model.
problem Multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection with constraints.
method Dynamic factor model, dynamic programming, piecewise linear feedback policy.
result Optimal portfolio policies determined by two stochastic processes.
We present a new model, Predictive State Recurrent Neural Networks (PSRNNs), for filtering and prediction in dynamical systems. PSRNNs draw on insights from both Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Predictive State Representations (PSRs), and inherit advantages from both types of models. Like many successful RNN archi…
Individual risk models need to capture possible correlations as failing to do so typically results in an underestimation of extreme quantiles of the aggregate loss. Such dependence modelling is particularly important for managing credit risk, for instance, where joint defaults are a major cause of concern. Often, the d…