Extends pricing methods for index options under rough volatility.
problem Pricing and hedging of index options under non-Markovian dynamics.
method Extension of large deviations methods to non-local volatility dynamics, specifically rough volatility.
result Validates the approach for pricing index options under rough volatility.
A blockchain protocol uses bandit algorithms to dynamically price transactions.
problem Maximizing revenue from decentralized blockchain Indexers competing for queries.
method Dynamic pricing using Gaussian bandits for multiple agents.
result Improved revenue through dynamic pricing in a decentralized blockchain environment.
Analyzes how inclusion/exclusion from STOXX Europe 600 Index affects company prices.
problem Understanding price dynamics of companies in STOXX Europe 600 Index.
method Used logit models and neural networks to analyze data.
result Identified independent variables affecting price changes.
DFR models dynamic distributional data with weighted Fréchet means.
problem Regression of distribution-valued responses over time.
method Dynamic Fréchet Regression (DFR) with index-aware weighting and feature selection.
result Improved predictive accuracy and feature recovery over existing methods.
Method uses derivatives for dynamic index tracking and risk control.
problem Dynamic index tracking and risk exposure control using financial derivatives.
method Continuous-time diffusion framework, pathwise approach to construct dynamic portfolios of derivatives.
result Established a general tracking condition and derived a slippage process.
We present a new model for credit index derivatives, in the top-down approach. This model has a dynamic loss intensity process with volatility and jumps and can include counterparty risk. It handles CDS, CDO tranches, Nth-to-default and index swaptions. Using properties of affine models, we derive closed formulas for t…
The Surprise index assesses autonomous systems' competency in uncertain environments.
problem Evaluating competency of autonomous systems in dynamic, uncertain environments.
method Surprise index, a measure that quantifies system performance based on available data.
result The Surprise index can be computed for dynamic systems with Gaussian marginal distributions.
We propose a new NFT price index to track the digital art market.
problem Lack of a comprehensive NFT price index.
method Developed a new methodology to create a NFT Price Index.
result Demonstrated the dynamics and performances of NFT markets.
New dynamic allocation methods for multi-armed bandit models.
problem Dynamic allocation problems in multi-armed bandit models.
method New types of dynamic allocation problems and proofs for Gittins index decomposition.
result New proofs for Gittins index decomposition and related results.
In this paper, we are interested in continuous time models in which the index level induces some feedback on the dynamics of its composing stocks. More precisely, we propose a model in which the log-returns of each stock may be decomposed into a systemic part proportional to the log-returns of the index plus an idiosyn…
Study SGD dynamics in sequence models, revealing training phases and influence of sequence length.
problem Understanding SGD in sequence models like attention networks.
method Derived closed-form population loss and analyzed SGD dynamics for SSI models.
result Two distinct training phases: escape from uninformative initialization and alignment with target subspace.
Local index formula for Lorentzian Dirac operators on spacetimes.
problem Index theory for Lorentzian Dirac operators with nontrivial dynamics.
method Local index formula based on microlocal analysis.
result Established a local index formula for Lorentzian Dirac-type operators.
New method for cohomological Conley index simplifies complex dynamics.
problem Computing cohomological Conley index for complex dynamics.
method Attractor-repeller decomposition and summation of power series in cohomology.
result Simple dynamical interpretation of first cohomological Conley index.
Improved Granger causality method for dynamic time series data.
problem Traditional Granger causality method assumes constant causalities, failing to model dynamic causalities.
method Dynamic window-level Granger causality (DWGC) method with causality indexing.
result Improved DWGC method better detects window-level causalities.
We propose a new class of mappings, called Dynamic Limit Growth Indices, that are designed to measure the long-run performance of a financial portfolio in discrete time setup. We study various important properties for this new class of measures, and in particular, we provide necessary and sufficient condition for a Dyn…
New stock market index captures market chaos and volatility.
problem Capturing the chaotic nature of stock market volatility.
method Tensor-based embedding of stock market information, time-dependent dynamical system model.
result Bidirectional causal relation between realized and implied volatility.
Study on VIX futures portfolios to track VIX index, finding dynamic strategy superior.
problem Tracking VIX index with VIX futures lagging.
method Optimization methods for static portfolios, dynamic trading strategy for VIX futures.
result Dynamic trading strategy outperforms static portfolios and VXX in tracking VIX.
Gradient descent dynamics studied for DEQs in linear and single-index models.
problem Understanding gradient descent dynamics for DEQs.
method Rigorously studied gradient descent dynamics for DEQs in linear and single-index models.
result Gradient descent converges to a global minimizer for linear DEQs and single-index models.
The paper uses topological concepts to analyze neural networks, revealing complex structure and dynamics.
problem Understanding the structure and dynamics of deep learning models.
method Topological dynamical systems, index theory, and computational homology.
result Neurons correspond to simplexes in a simplicial complex, and topological invariants can be computed.
A spring-block chain placed on a running conveyor belt is considered for modeling stylized facts observed in the dynamics of stock indexes. Individual stocks are modeled by the blocks, while the stock-stock correlations are introduced via simple elastic forces acting in the springs. The dragging effect of the moving be…
Distributions derived from non-extensive Tsallis statistics are closely connected with dynamics described by a nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation. The combination shows promise in describing stochastic processes with power-law distributions and superdiffusive dynamics. We investigate intra-day price changes in the S&P500…
We analyse the dynamics of the Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG at a daily time horizon before and after its well defined local maxima of the cusp-like shape decorated with oscillations. The rising and falling paths of the index peaks can be described by the Mittag-Leffler function superposed with various types of oscil…
Analyzes SGD dynamics in high-dimensional settings for GLMs and multi-index models.
problem Understanding SGD learning in high-dimensional settings for generalized linear models and multi-index models.
method Deterministic equivalent of SGD as ODEs and simplified SDE for analysis.
result Obtained learning rate thresholds and convergence guarantees for SGD.
This study compares microscopic and macroscopic models for commodity index derivatives pricing.
problem Lack of accurate futures curve dynamics in macroscopic models for real scenarios.
method Calibrated both microscopic and macroscopic models using S\&P GSCI Crude Oil excess-return index derivatives.
result Macroscopic models struggle to capture futures curve dynamics, affecting pricing and sensitivities.
Employing data on the assessed value of land in 1983 -- 2005 Japan, we investigate the dynamical behavior in the high scale region of non-equilibrium systems. From the detailed quasi-balance and Gibrat's law, we derive a relation between the change of Pareto index and a symmetry in the detailed quasi-balance. The relat…
Novel pricing method for equity-indexed annuities under uncertain volatility and stochastic interest rate.
problem Pricing equity-indexed annuities with early surrender risk under uncertain market conditions.
method Advanced financial modeling techniques, including uncertain volatility framework and Hull-White model for interest rate dynamics. Numerical algorithm using tree-based framework with local volatility optimization.
result High effectiveness of the proposed numerical algorithm compared to machine learning-based methods.
Gradient flow solves multi-index regression for high-dimensional Gaussian data.
problem Learning multi-index functions from high-dimensional Gaussian data.
method Two-timescale algorithm with non-parametric link function learning.
result Global convergence of Grassmannian population gradient flow dynamics.
This paper models CSI 300 index volatility using machine learning and addresses jump prediction.
problem Volatility modeling and jump prediction for high-frequency CSI 300 index data.
method Generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model with machine learning algorithms for parameter estimation and forecast evaluation.
result Deterministic component of stochastic volatility processes can be captured over short and longer-term windows.
Dynamic risk factor model improves portfolio performance in high dimensions.
problem Dynamic portfolio allocation in high-dimensional financial markets.
method Time-varying sparsity on factor loadings, sequential learning of parameters and volatilities.
result Significant portfolio performance improvements and higher utility gains.
We present a relatively detailed analysis of the persistence probability distributions in financial dynamics. Compared with the auto-correlation function, the persistence probability distributions describe dynamic correlations non-local in time. Universal and non-universal behaviors of the German DAX and Shanghai Index…
New RL method improves financial index tracking accuracy.
problem Optimizing financial index tracking with dynamic market information.
method Discrete-time dynamic model, Banach fixed point iteration, deep reinforcement learning.
result Proposed RL method outperforms benchmarks in tracking accuracy.
In this paper, we studied the dynamics of the log-return distribution of the Korean Composition Stock Price Index (KOSPI) from 1992 to 2004. Based on the microscopic spin model, we found that while the index during the late 1990s showed a power-law distribution, the distribution in the early 2000s was exponential. This…
Study examines volatility-based strategy for Chinese ETF options, improving returns in volatile markets.
problem Lack of effective trading strategies in volatile Chinese equity markets.
method Volatility forecasting using GARCH models to dynamically adjust positions and exposures.
result Dynamic adjustment of positions and exposures enhances returns in volatile markets.
The study forecasts portfolio volatility using cointegrated asset dynamics.
problem Forecasting volatility in portfolios with high accuracy.
method Developed HVR/DVR ratios and used Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to forecast volatility.
result VECM forecasts of portfolio volatility have lower MAPE than covariance-based forecasts.
We investigated the critical dynamics on the daily Taiwan stock exchange index (TSE) from 1971 to 2005, and the 5-min intraday data from 1996 to 2005. A global persistence exponent θp was defined for non-equilibrium critical phenomena \cite{Janssen,Majumdar}, and describing dynamic behavior in an economic index \c…
This study analyzes dynamic connectedness in global supply chain infrastructure portfolios, identifying key risk factors and extreme events.
problem Understanding dynamic connectedness in global supply chain infrastructure portfolios under various risk factors and extreme events.
method Time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to study spillover and interconnectedness of risk factors.
result Risk shocks influence dynamic connectedness between portfolios and risk factors, and extreme events affect investment outcomes.
Proposes a new semi-parametric framework for batched bandits with covariates.
problem Sequential decision-making with batched feedback and contextual information.
method Batched single-Index Dynamic binning and Successive arm elimination (BIDS) using single-index regression.
result Achieves minimax-optimal rates for nonparametric batched bandits.
In this paper we perform a statistical analysis over the returns and relative prices of the CAC 40 and the S\&P 500 with the purpose of analyzing the intra-day seasonalities of single and cross-sectional stock dynamics. In order to do that, we characterized the dynamics of a stock (or a set of stocks) by the evolut…
The complete invariant for gradient like Morse-Smale dynamical systems (vector fields and diffeomorphisms) on closed 4-manifolds are constructed. It is same as Kirby diagram in a case of polar vector field without fixed points of index 3.
Study shows gain-loss asymmetry in stock indices using a q-spin Potts model.
problem Understanding the dynamics of stock indices in complex markets.
method Developed a q-spin Potts model to represent stock market dynamics.
result Observed a self-organized gain-loss asymmetry in stock indices.
This paper investigates the dynamics of stocks in the S&P500 index for the last 30 years. Using a stochastic geometry technique, we investigate the evolution of the market space and define a new measure for that purpose, which is a robust index of the dynamics of the market structure and provides information on the int…
The Financial Chaos Index models stock market volatility across three regimes based on mutual price fluctuations.
problem Capturing regime-dependent volatility in stock markets.
method Developed a regime-switching framework using the Financial Chaos Index (FCIX) and elastic net regression.
result Identified three market regimes: low-chaos, intermediate-chaos, and high-chaos, each with distinct volatility characteristics.
This paper describes a flexible and tractable bottom-up dynamic correlation modelling framework with a consistent stochastic recovery specification. The stochastic recovery specification only models the first two moments of the spot recovery rate as its higher moments have almost no contribution to the loss distributio…
News sentiment in U.S. economic newspapers has become more persistent over 45 years.
problem Understanding the temporal dynamics of U.S. economic news sentiment over time.
method Daily economic news sentiment index from 1980-2025, analyzed using sentiment indexes.
result News sentiment states have become more persistent, with longer residence times in optimistic or pessimistic regimes.
We investigate the dynamical behavior in the large scale region of non-equilibrium systems, by employing data on the assessed value of land in 1983 -- 2006 Japan. In the system we find the detailed quasi-balance, which has the symmetry: x_1 -> a {x_2}^θ (x_1 and x_2 are two successive land prices). By using the detaile…
The paper studies the continuous-time dynamics of VIX with stochastic volatility and jumps in VIX and volatility. Built on the general parametric affine model with stochastic volatility and jump in logarithm of VIX, we derive a linear relation between the stochastic volatility factor and VVIX index. We detect the exist…
Improved stock index analysis using fuzzy parameters and machine learning.
problem Analyzing the S&P 500 stock index with long-term dependence.
method Combining fuzzy theory and machine learning to modify the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model.
result The new model effectively captures the stochastic dynamics of the stock index time series.
Unified framework predicts S&P500 index direction using transfer learning and causal graph.
problem Predicting the movement of financial indices like S&P500.
method Transfer learning, causal graph, multidisciplinary knowledge, VAE network.
result 74.3% accuracy, 67% F1-score, 0.42 Matthew correlation on 12 years test period.