The study establishes risk bounds for distributional regression estimators.
problem Estimating distributional regression models with nonparametric methods.
method Theoretical bounds for CRPS and MSE are derived for convex and non-convex constraints.
result Theoretical risk bounds are validated through experiments on simulated and real data.
Paper develops a new algorithm for distribution regression with optimal learning rates.
problem Distribution regression with limited second-stage samples.
method Multi-penalty regularization in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space.
result Derives optimal learning rates for distribution regression.
Paper develops a new method for distribution regression with indefinite kernels.
problem Distribution regression with indefinite kernels.
method Coefficient-based regularized distribution regression with two-stage sampling.
result Optimal learning rates derived for the algorithm under mild conditions.
Paper develops neural network for distribution regression.
problem Regression with probability measures.
method Develops a novel fully connected neural network (FNN) for distribution inputs.
result Almost optimal learning rates for distribution regression derived.
Proposes engression for extrapolation in distributional regression.
problem Challenging extrapolation problem in nonlinear regression.
method Neural network-based distributional regression.
result Engression successfully performs extrapolation under certain assumptions.
Bayesian Additive Distribution Regression (DistBART) predicts distributions from grouped data.
problem Predicting distributions from grouped data with varying characteristics.
method Bayesian nonparametric approach using BART for modeling the regression function.
result Empirical and theoretical evidence supports DistBART's effectiveness in learning from low-dimensional marginals.
New method for multivariate distribution regression using NPT metric.
problem Regression with multivariate distributional responses and Euclidean predictors.
method Fréchet regression with nonparanormal transport (NPT) metric.
result Efficient estimation and granular interpretation of predictor effects.
Paper tackles distributed quantile regression with improved efficiency and support recovery.
problem Challenges in distributed estimation and support recovery for high-dimensional linear quantile regression.
method Transformed quantile regression into least-squares optimization, applied double-smoothing approach, developed efficient algorithm.
result Achieved near-oracle convergence rate and high support recovery accuracy.
Paper studies distributed kernel regression with imperfect kernels, achieving optimal rates.
problem Optimal rates of distributed regression with imperfect kernels.
method Divide and conquer approach, response weighted base algorithms, leave one out analysis, bias correction.
result Achieves capacity independent optimal rates for distributed kernel regression with imperfect kernels.
A new type of distributional regression tree uses soft split rules for better predictive performance.
problem Estimating complete conditional distributions in regression.
method Distributional adaptive soft regression trees using multivariate soft split rules.
result The method outperforms various benchmark methods, especially in complex non-linear interactions.
Neural Local Wasserstein Regression models distribution-on-distribution regression with flexible, localized transport maps.
problem Estimating distribution-on-distribution regression with global optimal transport maps or linearization limitations.
method Proposes Neural Local Wasserstein Regression, a flexible nonparametric framework using locally defined transport maps in Wasserstein space.
result Demonstrates effective capture of nonlinear and high-dimensional distributional relationships.
CRUDE calibrates regression uncertainty without assuming specific error distributions.
problem Uncalibrated uncertainty estimates in regression models, especially for modern predictive tasks.
method CRUDE assumes error distributions have a constant shape, shifted and scaled by predicted mean and standard deviation.
result CRUDE produces sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than existing methods.
New metrics improve regression evaluation across different data distributions.
problem Difficulty in comparing regression evaluations across datasets with varying distributions.
method Modification of regression metrics by weighting with the inverse distribution of function values or samples using a Gaussian kernel density estimator.
result New metrics are less sensitive to changing distributions, especially when correcting by the marginal distribution in X. Combination of distributional regression algorithms improves uncertainty estimation of satellite precipitation products.
problem Uncertainty estimation in satellite precipitation products.
method Ensemble learning methods combining conditional zero-adjusted probability distributions estimated with GAMLSS, spline-based GAMLSS, and distributional regression forests.
result Stacking of methods outperformed individual methods in most quantile levels using the quantile loss function.
`Distribution regression' refers to the situation where a response Y depends on a covariate P where P is a probability distribution. The model is Y=f(P) + mu where f is an unknown regression function and mu is a random error. Typically, we do not observe P directly, but rather, we observe a sample from P. In this paper…
We are concerned with obtaining well-calibrated output distributions from regression models. Such distributions allow us to quantify the uncertainty that the model has regarding the predicted target value. We introduce the novel concept of distribution calibration, and demonstrate its advantages over the existing defin…
A novel Bayesian framework for private linear regression with MCMC.
problem Private linear regression in a distributed setting.
method Generative statistical model, MCMC algorithms, fast Bayesian estimation.
result The proposed methods provide well-rounded estimation and prediction.
Robustly estimates linear regression coefficients with adversarial and noisy data.
problem Estimating robust linear regression coefficients with adversarial and noisy data.
method Adversarial robust weighted Huber regression with polynomial computational complexity.
result Derives an estimation error bound that depends on the stable rank and condition number of the covariance matrix.
Solving logistic regression with L1-regularization in distributed settings is an important problem. This problem arises when training dataset is very large and cannot fit the memory of a single machine. We present d-GLMNET, a new algorithm solving logistic regression with L1-regularization in the distributed settings. …
Paper introduces robust distribution regression using kernel methods.
problem Distribution regression from probability measures to real-valued responses.
method Introduces a robust loss function lσ and a windowing function V for two-stage sampling problems. result Shows improved learning rates and robustness with the robust distribution regression (RDR) scheme.
There is emerging interest in performing regression between distributions. In contrast to prediction on single instances, these machine learning methods can be useful for population-based studies or on problems that are inherently statistical in nature. The recently proposed distribution regression network (DRN) has sh…
Develops estimators for near-optimal linear regression under distribution shift.
problem Linear regression under distribution shift with scarce target domain data.
method Minimax linear risk estimators covering various transfer learning settings.
result Achieves near-optimal risk for linear regression problems under distribution shift.
Study robust linear regression without distributional assumptions for heavy-tailed responses.
problem Linear regression with heavy-tailed responses and no distributional assumptions.
method Combining truncated least squares, median-of-means, and aggregation theory to construct a non-linear estimator.
result Achieves excess risk of order d/n with optimal sub-exponential tail. VIR model improves regression accuracy and uncertainty estimation for imbalanced data.
problem Imbalanced regression datasets lead to poor model accuracy and uncertainty estimation.
method VIR model uses probabilistic smoothing and reweighting to estimate latent representations and uncertainty.
result VIR model outperforms state-of-the-art models in accuracy and uncertainty estimation.
New framework enforces demographic parity on distribution tails.
problem Enforcing demographic parity on entire distribution can degrade accuracy.
method Optimal transport theory, focusing on distribution tails.
result More nuanced and context-sensitive fairness interventions.
NMDR estimates complex mixtures of distributions efficiently.
problem Estimating complex finite mixtures of distributions in high-dimensional settings.
method Flexible additive predictors, neural networks, and deep learning optimizers.
result Competitive performance in complex scenarios compared to existing approaches.
SGD improves DR by solving two-stage sampling problems.
problem Improving the learning properties of SGD for distribution regression.
method Applying SGD to two-stage sampling problems in distribution regression.
result Theoretical guarantees for SGD's performance in DR, with optimal bounds.
Unified approach for nonparametric regression and conditional distribution learning.
problem Nonparametric regression and conditional distribution learning problems.
method Generative learning framework with deep neural networks to estimate a conditional generator.
result The approach estimates a regression function and a conditional generator simultaneously, providing good prediction intervals.
A new method predicts precipitation distributions from ensemble forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy and calibration of precipitation forecasts.
method Distributional regression U-Nets for postprocessing ensemble precipitation forecasts.
result Competitive performance in continuous ranked probability score, especially for heavy precipitation.
Stagewise boosting improves gradient boosting for distributional regression.
problem Vanishing gradient in gradient boosting for distributional regression leads to suboptimal models.
method Proposes a stagewise boosting-type algorithm for distributional regression, combining stagewise regression ideas with gradient boosting and incorporating a novel regularization method, correlation filtering.
result The proposed algorithm provides better results, especially for complex distributions, by reducing the risk of being trapped in a local optimum.
We develop quantile regression models in order to derive risk margin and to evaluate capital in non-life insurance applications. By utilizing the entire range of conditional quantile functions, especially higher quantile levels, we detail how quantile regression is capable of providing an accurate estimation of risk ma…
Improves regression models' performance on covariate shift.
problem Out-of-distribution generalization for regression.
method Spectrally adapting the weights of a pre-trained neural regression model.
result Spectral adaptation improves out-of-distribution performance.
LDAO addresses imbalanced regression by learning local distribution structures.
problem Imbalanced regression with sparse target regions difficult for models.
method LDAO learns local distribution structures, models and samples from each, then merges.
result LDAO outperforms state-of-the-art methods on 45 imbalanced datasets.
A new method for distribution regression using sliced Wasserstein distance.
problem Learning functions over spaces of probabilities.
method Proposes an OT-based estimator using the Sliced Wasserstein distance.
result Proves universal consistency and excess risk bounds for the proposed estimator.
Efficiently estimates sparse linear regression with heavy-tailed and outlier-contaminated data.
problem Estimating sparse linear regression coefficients with heavy-tailed and outlier-contaminated data.
method Efficient computation of estimators with sharp error bounds.
result Sharp error bounds for efficient estimators.
DRIFT uses neural flows to replace distributional regression models.
problem Lack of neural network representations for distributional regression models.
method Inverse flow transformations (DRIFT) for distributional regression.
result Neural representations in DRIFT match classical statistical methods in performance.
The paper develops AMP theory for sparse and robust regression with polynomial iterations.
problem Challenges in high-dimensional statistical estimation due to asymptotic theory breakdown.
method Non-asymptotic distributional theory of AMP for sparse and robust regression.
result First finite-sample non-asymptotic distributional theory of AMP for polynomial iterations.
Two EM algorithms estimate prior distributions in mixture of linear regressions.
problem Estimating prior distributions in mixture of linear regressions.
method Two EM algorithms: one for continuous priors, one for discrete priors.
result Both algorithms accurately estimate prior distributions and the number of clusters.
Improved learning theory for kernel distribution regression with two-stage sampling.
problem Distribution regression problem and two-stage sampling setting.
method Kernel methods, near-unbiased condition, new error bounds, convergence rates.
result Strictly improved convergence rates for three important classes of kernels.
Distributed learning is an effective way to analyze big data. In distributed regression, a typical approach is to divide the big data into multiple blocks, apply a base regression algorithm on each of them, and then simply average the output functions learnt from these blocks. Since the average process will decrease th…
The paper tackles domain generalization using functional regression.
problem Learning a model that generalizes well across different source distributions.
method Functional regression approach to learn a linear operator between marginal and conditional distributions.
result The proposed algorithm achieves finite sample error bounds for the idealized risk.
Extends Gaussian Process regression for handling multiple prior distributions.
problem Handling multiple prior distributions in Bayesian Machine Learning models.
method Mixtures of Gaussian Processes with analytical and Sparse Variational approaches.
result Effective in accounting for prior misspecification in functional regression problems.
Study improves distributional regression evaluation with CRPS, finding optimal rates of convergence.
problem Improving probabilistic forecasts in meteorology using distributional regression.
method Extends theoretical properties of CRPS evaluation to include covariates and finite sample sizes, analyzing convergence rates for different methods.
result Optimal minimax rate of convergence for distributional regression methods is achieved by k-nearest neighbor and kernel methods.
Study improves generalization bounds for linear regression across tasks.
problem Improving generalization in high-dimensional regression problems.
method Distribution-dependent bounds on generalization error for L1, L2, and elastic net regularization.
result Generalization bounds improve with data distribution niceness and do not degrade with feature dimension.
Study ridge regression for non-identically distributed data with varying variances.
problem Investigate high-dimensional regression with non-identical data variance.
method Propose a random effect model and use tools from random matrix theory.
result Highlight the double descent phenomenon in high-dimensional regression for certain variance profiles.
The paper analyzes and improves the learning rates of distributed kernel ridge regression.
problem Generalization performance and learning rates of distributed kernel ridge regression.
method The paper derives optimal learning rates for DKRR in expectation and probability, proposes a communication strategy to improve learning performance, and evaluates these through theory and experiments.
result The communication strategy significantly improves the learning performance of DKRR, as demonstrated by both theoretical assessments and numerical experiments.
New algorithm mitigates misspecification amplification in regression models with covariate shift.
problem Distribution shift and model misspecification in regression models.
method Developed a new algorithm inspired by robust optimization to avoid misspecification amplification.
result No misspecification amplification while still achieving optimal statistical rates.
New method improves probabilistic electricity price predictions.
problem Improving point forecasts to probabilistic distributions for better decision-making.
method Isotonic Distributional Regression combined with other postprocessing methods.
result Isotonic Distributional Regression outperforms other methods in combining probabilistic distributions.