We propose a model to study the effects of delayed information on option pricing. We first talk about the absence of arbitrage in our model, and then discuss super replication with delayed information in a binomial model, notably, we present a closed form formula for the price of convex contingent claims. Also, we addr…
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48 results for “Delayed Effects”
This paper considers the problem of predicting the number of events that have occurred in the past, but which are not yet observed due to a delay. Such delayed events are relevant in predicting the future cost of warranties, pricing maintenance contracts, determining the number of unreported claims in insurance and in …
Delay-SDE-net models time series with memory and uncertainty, outperforming other models.
problem Accurately modeling time series with memory and uncertainty.
method Stochastic delay differential equations (SDDEs) neural network model with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
result The Delay-SDE-net consistently outperforms other models in predicting time series values and uncertainties.
The paper develops a reinforcement learning model to estimate ad impact considering delayed and cumulative effects.
problem Accurately estimating ad impact considering delayed and long-term effects, cumulative impacts, and customer heterogeneity.
method Modeling ad bidding as a Contextual Markov Decision Process (CMDP) with delayed Poisson rewards, proposing a two-stage maximum likelihood estimator and reinforcement learning algorithm.
result Achieves a near-optimal regret bound of , validating the approach through simulation experiments.
Online learning with delayed feedback has received increasing attention recently due to its several applications in distributed, web-based learning problems. In this paper we provide a systematic study of the topic, and analyze the effect of delay on the regret of online learning algorithms. Somewhat surprisingly, it t…
Survey of RL methods for control systems with time delays.
problem Time delays in cyber-physical systems degrade RL performance and stability.
method Categorizes and analyzes five major families of RL methods for time delays.
result Identifies key trade-offs and practical guidelines for selecting RL methods.
New method solves stochastic control problems with delays using deep learning.
problem Stochastic control problems with delayed control in drift and diffusion.
method Characterization via Riccati PDEs and deep learning scheme.
result Illustrates effect of delay on Markowitz portfolio allocation problem.
New algorithm tackles non-stationary delayed feedback in recommender systems.
problem Challenges in learning from delayed feedback in non-stationary environments.
method Developed a UCRL-based algorithm for non-stationary, delayed bandits with intermediate observations.
result Sublinear regret guarantees for the proposed algorithm in non-stationary delayed environments.
New algorithms reduce forecasting errors by leveraging optimistic learning and hinting.
problem Real-time climate forecasting with delayed feedback.
method Developed optimistic online learning algorithms that reduce regret under delayed feedback.
result Optimistic learning algorithms achieve optimal regret guarantees under delayed feedback.
We provide tight finite-time convergence bounds for gradient descent and stochastic gradient descent on quadratic functions, when the gradients are delayed and reflect iterates from rounds ago. First, we show that without stochastic noise, delays strongly affect the attainable optimization error: In fact, the error…
Proposes a deep learning method for solving complex financial games with delays.
problem Financial modeling with multi-agent interactions and delayed effects.
method Parameterizes controls using recurrent neural networks and trains them with modified fictitious play.
result Demonstrates effectiveness on finance problems with known solutions and new problems with derived Nash equilibria.
AB dynamically scales gradients to mitigate asynchronous training delays.
problem Gradient delay in asynchronous training reduces model performance.
method Adaptive Braking (AB) dynamically scales gradients based on alignment.
result AB enables training with up to 32 update steps of delay without accuracy loss.
Predicting conversion rates (CVRs) in display advertising (e.g., predicting the proportion of users who purchase an item (i.e., a conversion) after its corresponding ad is clicked) is important when measuring the effects of ads shown to users and to understanding the interests of the users. There is generally a time de…
Proposes DEXP3.M for unknown delay in multi-arm bandit with multiple play.
problem Unknown delays in adversarial multi-armed bandit with multiple play.
method DEXP3.M algorithm addressing the challenge of associating feedback losses to arms.
result Regret bound is only slightly worse than single play setting.
A new algorithm tackles delayed combinatorial semi-bandit with causal relations.
problem Optimizing decisions in a non-stationary environment with delayed and causally related rewards.
method Formalized as a non-stationary delayed combinatorial semi-bandit problem, the approach models causal relations with a directed graph in a stationary structural equation model. The agent learns these relations from delayed feedback to optimize decisions.
result Proved a regret bound for the proposed algorithm's performance.
Paper proposes GrokTransfer to eliminate delayed generalization in neural networks.
problem Delayed generalization in neural networks, compromising predictability and efficiency.
method Trains a smaller, weaker model to reach a nontrivial test performance, then uses its learned input embedding to initialize the stronger model.
result GrokTransfer enables the target model to generalize directly without delay, across various tasks.
DASA speeds up SA with delayed agents, achieving N-fold speedup.
problem Speeding up Stochastic Approximation with asynchronous delays.
method DASA: Delay-Adaptive Multi-Agent Stochastic Approximation algorithm.
result First algorithm with convergence rate dependent on mixing time and average delay.
Delayed rejection HMC improves sampling efficiency for multiscale distributions.
problem Hamiltonian Monte Carlo struggles with wide-ranging distributions, especially in high-curvature areas.
method Introduces a delayed rejection variant of HMC, using geometrically smaller step sizes for retries.
result Up to five-fold performance gains in effective sample size per gradient evaluation.
EviTrack improves sequential prediction in delayed disambiguation scenarios.
problem Challenges in sequential prediction with delayed disambiguation where early observations are ambiguous.
method EviTrack operates over latent trajectories, applying evidence- and likelihood-ratio-based selection to delay commitment until supported by data.
result EviTrack outperforms sampling-based baselines in a controlled synthetic benchmark, achieving faster post-disambiguation recovery.
We introduce Delay Pruning, a simple yet powerful technique to regularize dynamic Boltzmann machines (DyBM). The recently introduced DyBM provides a particularly structured Boltzmann machine, as a generative model of a multi-dimensional time-series. This Boltzmann machine can have infinitely many layers of units but al…
Novel algorithm for decentralized optimization in time-varying networks with delays.
problem Decentralized optimization in networks with communication delays.
method DT-GO algorithm, applicable to general directed graphs, converges to same complexity as centralized SGD.
result Algorithm DT-GO achieves convergence rates for convex and non-convex objectives, similar to centralized SGD.
Granger causality is a fundamental technique for causal inference in time series data, commonly used in the social and biological sciences. Typical operationalizations of Granger causality make a strong assumption that every time point of the effect time series is influenced by a combination of other time series with a…
New RL algorithm handles delayed feedback with posterior sampling.
problem Challenges of delayed feedback in reinforcement learning with linear function approximation.
method Posterior sampling with delayed feedback for value-based RL.
result Achieves optimal regret guarantee with improved computational efficiency.
We analyze (stochastic) gradient descent (SGD) with delayed updates on smooth quasi-convex and non-convex functions and derive concise, non-asymptotic, convergence rates. We show that the rate of convergence in all cases consists of two terms: (i) a stochastic term which is not affected by the delay, and (ii) a higher …
The study explains delayed spikes in batch-normalized models.
problem Delayed spikes in batch-normalized models.
method Analyzing batch-normalized linear models, deriving conditions for delayed onset and waiting time.
result Explicit conditions for delayed-onset and waiting time in whitened square-loss linear regression.
We propose a generalization of the best arm identification problem in stochastic multi-armed bandits (MAB) to the setting where every pull of an arm is associated with delayed feedback. The delay in feedback increases the effective sample complexity of standard algorithms, but can be offset if we have access to partial…
Modeling delayed Granger causality in Hawkes processes.
problem Capturing the time lag between causal events in multivariate Hawkes processes.
method Proposed a Hawkes process model with latent time lags, using Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) for inference.
result Identified and inferred time lags with posterior distributions, improving event prediction and root cause analysis.
In this paper, we accomplish two objectives: First, we provide a new mathematical characterization of the value function for impulse control problems with implementation delay and present a direct solution method that differs from its counterparts that use quasi-variational inequalities. Our method is direct, in the se…
This paper presents a stochastic logic time delay reservoir design. The reservoir is analyzed using a number of metrics, such as kernel quality, generalization rank, performance on simple benchmarks, and is also compared to a deterministic design. A novel re-seeding method is introduced to reduce the adverse effects of…
New algorithm for decentralized online convex optimization with unknown delays.
problem Decentralized online convex optimization with unknown, time-varying feedback delays.
method Proposes a novel algorithm that incorporates adaptive learning rates and gossip-based delay estimation.
result Achieves improved regret bounds of O(N √d tot + N √T (1-σ^2)^(1/4)) and O(N δmax ln T α) for different settings.
Granger causality is a fundamental technique for causal inference in time series data, commonly used in the social and biological sciences. Typical operationalizations of Granger causality make a strong assumption that every time point of the effect time series is influenced by a combination of other time series with a…
New algorithm for bandits with delayed action effects, reducing regret.
problem Delayed impact of actions in multi-armed bandits.
method Formulated a new bandit setting with delayed action effects, proposed an algorithm with regret bound.
result Achieved a regret of and showed a matching lower bound.
Agent decides when to measure latent states in RL to improve efficiency.
problem Costly state measurement in RL negatively affects future outcomes.
method Introduces AOMDP with measurement action, uses online RL and sequential Monte Carlo.
result Reduced uncertainty improves sample efficiency and policy value.
In this paper we consider backward stochastic differential equations with time-delayed generators of a moving average type. The classical framework with linear generators depending on is extended and we investigate linear generators depending on . We…
A new RL framework evaluates dynamic mediation effects over time.
problem Dynamic mediation effects in sequentially assigned treatments.
method Reinforcement Learning framework for decomposition and estimation of causal effects.
result Superior performance demonstrated through numerical studies and real data analysis.
Develops a stochastic approach to financial market delays.
problem Modeling delays in financial markets with multiple assets.
method Introduces a general stochastic framework for information and order execution delays.
result Delayed markets maintain fundamental asset pricing theorems and no asymptotic free lunch condition.
Paper tackles action delays in reinforcement learning, proposing a delay-aware framework.
problem Action delays degrade reinforcement learning performance in real-world systems.
method Formal definition of delay-aware MDP, transformation into standard MDP with augmented states, delay-aware model-based reinforcement learning framework.
result Proposed framework is more efficient in training and transferable between systems with various delay durations.
Enhances SGLD for log-concave posteriors with asynchronous computation.
problem Sampling log-concave posterior distributions efficiently.
method Integrates asynchronous computation into SGLD with delayed gradients.
result Convergence in measure is not significantly affected by delayed gradient information.
We propose an optimal portfolio problem in the incomplete market where the underlying assets depend on economic factors with delayed effects, such models can describe the short term forecasting and the interaction with time lag among different financial markets. The delay phenomenon can be recognized as the integral ty…
This study aims to predict vessel stay and delay times at ports to optimize logistics.
problem Uncertainties in maritime logistics, including weather, cargo diversity, and port dynamics, lead to increased costs and inefficiencies.
method Developed predictive analytics to address shortcomings in previous works, using feature analysis and SHAP explanations.
result Predictive analytics can assist in efficient planning and scheduling of port operations, reducing costs and improving logistics.
Improved modeling of chaotic systems using time-delay embeddings and Frenet-Serret frame.
problem Identifying effective coordinate systems for nonlinear dynamical systems.
method Developed a new algorithm to identify more stable and accurate models from less data, leveraging the connection between HAVOK and Frenet-Serret frame.
result The sub- and super-diagonal entries of the linear model correspond to intrinsic curvatures in Frenet-Serret frame.
New algorithm tackles delayed feedback in Lipschitz bandits with sublinear regret.
problem Delayed feedback in Lipschitz bandits.
method Design of algorithms for bounded and unbounded stochastic delays.
result Sublinear regret guarantees for both bounded and unbounded delays.
A new method reduces communication costs in distributed learning.
problem Reduces communication bottlenecks in distributed learning.
method Local SGD with communication-computation overlap and delay-corrected sparse model averaging.
result Theoretical convergence guarantees for smooth non-convex objectives.
A new RL method improves revenue management with delayed feedback.
problem Delayed feedback in revenue management affects substantial value.
method Choice-model-assisted Q-learning for delayed feedback revenue management.
result Q-learning with model-imputed targets converges to an optimal Q-function.
New algorithms ensure fair selection in combinatorial semi-bandit with unrestricted delays.
problem Fair selection in stochastic combinatorial semi-bandit with delayed feedback.
method Introduced merit-based fairness constraints and new bandit algorithms for reward and fairness.
result Achieved sublinear expected reward and fairness regrets with dependence on delay distribution quantiles.
Banker-OMD improves online learning with delayed feedback.
problem Handling delayed feedback in online learning.
method Generalized Online Mirror Descent (OMD) framework.
result Achieves nearly-optimal performance in three bandit scenarios.
New algorithm handles delayed feedback robustly, reducing regret without knowing delay bounds.
problem Bandits with variably delayed feedback, especially excessive delays.
method Implicit exploration scheme, adaptive skipping, drifted regret control.
result Can tolerate arbitrary excessive delays up to order T, reducing regret.
In time-series analysis, the term "lead-lag effect" is used to describe a delayed effect on a given time series caused by another time series. lead-lag effects are ubiquitous in practice and are specifically critical in formulating investment strategies in high-frequency trading. At present, there are three major chall…