Paper introduces exact credible sets for classification problems.
problem No general way to construct exact credible sets for classification.
method Generalized credible set with connection to Neyman--Pearson lemma and randomized decision rule.
result Achieves any preassigned credible level for classification problems.
Transformer architecture improved with credibility mechanism for better model performance.
problem Improving predictive models in tabular data.
method Introducing a credibility mechanism to the Transformer architecture.
result Credibility Transformer leads to superior predictive models compared to state-of-the-art models.
The paper proposes a method to assess survey data credibility without needing many samples, regardless of data dimension.
problem Assessing the credibility of survey data across different dimensions.
method Task-based approach and model-specific distance metric for verifying survey data credibility in regression models.
result The sample complexity of the proposed algorithm is independent of the data dimension, making it more efficient.
Online reviews provide viewpoints on the strengths and shortcomings of products/services, influencing potential customers' purchasing decisions. However, the proliferation of non-credible reviews -- either fake (promoting/ demoting an item), incompetent (involving irrelevant aspects), or biased -- entails the problem o…
Credibility theory provides tools to obtain better estimates by combining individual data with sample information. We apply the Credibility theory to a Uniform distribution that is used in testing the reliability of forecasting an interest rate for long term horizons. Such empirical exercise is asked by Regulators (CRR…
CP4SBI improves the calibration of credible sets in SBI models.
problem Inaccurate credible sets in SBI models lead to underestimation of true parameters.
method Develops a local conformal calibration framework for SBI models.
result Improves the quality of uncertainty quantification for neural posterior estimators.
This project demonstrated a methodology to estimating cooperate credibility with a Natural Language Processing approach. As cooperate transparency impacts both the credibility and possible future earnings of the firm, it is an important factor to be considered by banks and investors on risk assessments of listed firms.…
The paper evaluates income credibility using a hierarchical correlation reconstruction technique.
problem Automatic evaluation of credibility of exogenous variables like income based on endogenous variables.
method Adapted hierarchical correlation reconstruction technique for credibility evaluation, combining statistics with machine learning.
result The method allows for the automatic evaluation of credibility of income data, with high density values considered credible.
CREX makes deep neural networks more credible by focusing on relevant evidence.
problem Deep neural networks often use incorrect evidence for decisions, leading to mistrust and poor generalization.
method CREX regularizes DNN training with rationales to encourage correct local explanations.
result DNNs trained with CREX are more credible and perform better on unseen data.
In many settings, it is important that a model be capable of providing reasons for its predictions (i.e., the model must be interpretable). However, the model's reasoning may not conform with well-established knowledge. In such cases, while interpretable, the model lacks \textit{credibility}. In this work, we formally …
New auction design uses statistical learning to reduce costs and improve fairness.
problem Designing efficient multi-item auctions with reduced implementation costs and fairness.
method Nonparametric density estimation for credible intervals, two new strategies.
result Strategies consistently outperform alternative methods in revenue maximization and cost reduction.
Develops a new method for sampling from Bayesian credible sets using deep generative quantile learning.
problem Sampling from posterior distributions in high-dimensional spaces with intractable likelihoods.
method Uses deep neural networks to implicitly sample from Bayesian credible sets via a push-forward mapping and Monge-Kantorovich depth.
result Demonstrates improved performance and theoretical consistency of the quantile learning framework.
New method for credible intervals of Covid19 reproduction number.
problem Lack of credibility intervals in existing estimates.
method Combines Langevin Monte Carlo with Proximal operators.
result Produces credible intervals for reproduction number estimates.
The paper analyzes uncertainty quantification in sparse Gaussian process regression with a Brownian motion prior.
problem Analyzing uncertainty in sparse Gaussian process regression with a Brownian motion prior.
method Theoretical guarantees and limitations for pointwise credible sets are derived for a rescaled Brownian motion prior with a sparse variational Gaussian process method.
result Theoretical characterization of asymptotic frequentist coverage for credible sets, distinguishing conservative and overconfident cases.
The paper tests the credibility of public and private surveys using linear regression and differential privacy.
problem Ensuring the validity of data analysis results from sample surveys using linear regression.
method Designing an algorithm to test the credibility of surveys and extending it to handle LDP.
result The algorithm achieves optimal estimation error bound for ℓ1 linear regression and reduces sample complexity. Media seems to have become more partisan, often providing a biased coverage of news catering to the interest of specific groups. It is therefore essential to identify credible information content that provides an objective narrative of an event. News communities such as digg, reddit, or newstrust offer recommendations,…
Paper introduces SCI to distinguish market signals from coordination.
problem Unclear signals in prediction markets.
method Formalizes SCI, introduces weighted and time-varying extensions.
result Discriminates between market signals and coordination.
One of the major hurdles preventing the full exploitation of information from online communities is the widespread concern regarding the quality and credibility of user-contributed content. Prior works in this domain operate on a static snapshot of the community, making strong assumptions about the structure of the dat…
Online health communities are a valuable source of information for patients and physicians. However, such user-generated resources are often plagued by inaccuracies and misinformation. In this work we propose a method for automatically establishing the credibility of user-generated medical statements and the trustworth…
BIGUE algorithm provides credible intervals for hyperbolic network embeddings.
problem Uncertainty in hyperbolic network embeddings.
method Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for Bayesian hyperbolic random graph model.
result Samples from the posterior distribution provide credible intervals for hyperbolic coordinates and network properties.
Bayesian method improves estimation of unseen species.
problem Estimating unseen species in biological and physical sciences.
method Bayesian nonparametric approach with Pitman-Yor prior and Gaussian credible intervals.
result Improves asymptotic credible intervals for unseen species estimation.
Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful interpolation technique due to its flexibility in capturing non-linearity. In this paper, we provide a general framework for understanding the frequentist coverage of point-wise and simultaneous Bayesian credible sets in GP regression. As an intermediate result, we develop…
Purpose: Malicious web domain identification is of significant importance to the security protection of Internet users. With online credibility and performance data, this paper aims to investigate the use of machine learning tech-niques for malicious web domain identification by considering the class imbalance issue (i…
There is considerable debate whether the domestic political institutions (specifically, the country s level of democracy) of the host developing country toward foreign investors are effective in establishing the credibility of commitments are still underway, researchers have also analyzed the effect of international in…
Paper solves portfolio optimization with fuzzy risk and credibility theory.
problem Optimizing investment in risky assets with fuzzy risk and credibility theory.
method Formulated as an optimization problem with credibilistic expected utility. Derived formulas for optimal allocation using various moments and utility function parameters.
result Different formulas for optimal allocation of risky assets are derived, considering fuzzy risk and utility function parameters.
Generative sampler learns velocity fields for efficient posterior inference.
problem Sampling from complex posterior distributions in high dimensions.
method Generative multivariate posterior sampler via flow matching, learning a velocity field for a deterministic transport map.
result Conditional Brenier map enables fast generation of credible sets with theoretical consistency guarantees.
Bayesian inference engines improve density estimation accuracy and scalability.
problem Constructing accurate and scalable probability density functions.
method Bayesian inference engines (no-U-turn sampling and expectation propagation) with binning strategy.
result Density estimates have excellent comparative performance and scale well to large sample sizes.
To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches in operational risk, the bank's internal model should make use of the internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and factors reflecting the business environment and internal control systems. One of the unresolved challeng…
Most machine learning classifiers give predictions for new examples accurately, yet without indicating how trustworthy predictions are. In the medical domain, this hampers their integration in decision support systems, which could be useful in the clinical practice. We use a supervised learning approach that combines E…
The paper proposes a fair and private decentralized deep learning framework.
problem Ensuring fairness and privacy in collaborative deep learning.
method A reputation system and differential privacy are used. FDPDDL framework is built with two stages: initialisation and update.
result FDPDDL achieves high fairness, comparable accuracy to centralised and distributed frameworks, and better accuracy than standalone.
Bayesian method for estimating ATE with robustness to model misspecification.
problem Estimating average treatment effects under unconfoundedness.
method Double robust Bayesian inference using adjusted prior and posterior distributions.
result Bayesian credible sets form asymptotically exact confidence intervals.
Bayesian inference corrected for bias in high-dimensional models.
problem Bayesian inference for high-dimensional regression models often produces biased credible sets.
method Debiasing approach based on Bernstein-von Mises theorem.
result Frequentist validity of debiased Bayesian posterior.
BCPO optimizes offline RL policies by converting uncertainty into conservative bounds.
problem Offline RL's fragility under distribution shifts and model errors.
method Bayesian approach with credible lower bounds and KL regularization.
result BCPO yields an uncertainty-calibrated policy that avoids exploiting model errors.
No policy can simultaneously be fully autonomous, optimally calibrated, and helpful, proving a trilemma.
problem Proving impossibility of a policy achieving maximum helpfulness, optimal calibration, and full autonomy.
method Geometric proof showing that adding any non-affine autonomy incentive to a strictly proper scoring rule destroys strict properness.
result The Behavioral Credibility Trilemma: no policy can achieve all three goals simultaneously.
Simulation workflow is a top-level model for the design and control of simulation process. It connects multiple simulation components with time and interaction restrictions to form a complete simulation system. Before the construction and evaluation of the component models, the validation of upper-layer simulation work…
New method uses fractional posteriors for semiparametric inference with improved uncertainty quantification.
problem Semiparametric inference with nonparametric priors and fractional posteriors.
method Established a general Bernstein--von Mises theorem for fractional posterior distributions, proposed shifted-and-rescaled credible sets.
result Fractional posterior credible sets provide reliable uncertainty quantification but have inflated size; shifted-and-rescaled set is an efficient confidence set.
This paper tackles sample elicitation for learning systems, introducing a method to incentivize truthful samples.
problem Eliciting credible training samples for complex distributions from humans is challenging.
method Introduces a deep learning aided method to incentivize truthful samples from self-interested and rational agents.
result Achieves approximate incentive compatibility in eliciting truthful samples via accurate estimation of f-divergence function. Methods for reasoning under uncertainty are a key building block of accurate and reliable machine learning systems. Bayesian methods provide a general framework to quantify uncertainty. However, because of model misspecification and the use of approximate inference, Bayesian uncertainty estimates are often inaccurate -…
Adapts Gaussian process surrogate evaluation with conformal prediction for better coverage guarantees.
problem Uncertainty quantification and model specification issues in Gaussian process surrogate models.
method Adaptive cross-conformal prediction intervals using posterior standard deviation weighting.
result Conformal prediction intervals provide significant correlation with surrogate model error and frequentist coverage guarantees.
Randomized predictions ensure fair and accurate individual calibration in machine learning.
problem Systematic bias in typical calibration methods leads to unfair predictions for certain subgroups.
method Randomization of predictions to enforce individual calibration, trading off bias with variance.
result Randomized regression functions are more calibrated for arbitrary subgroups and achieve higher utility.
Bayesian framework improves LLM evaluation stability and transparency.
problem Pass@k and avg@N are unstable and misleading for LLMs.
method Bayesian evaluation with posterior estimates and credible intervals.
result Posterior-based evaluation yields stable and transparent rankings.
Enhances systemic risk analysis by incorporating debt valuation factors.
problem Systemic risk in financial networks due to bank failures.
method Incorporates debt valuation factors into existing risk analysis frameworks.
result Additional debt valuation factors substantially influence risk assessment outcomes.
Bayesian approach improves uncertainty in deep learning models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method Bayesian point of view, Gaussian approximability, semi-parametric Bernstein-von Mises theorems.
result Bayesian credible regions have valid frequentist coverage, providing theoretical justification for deep learning.
New method for uncertainty analysis in TabPFN, a state-of-the-art tabular transformer.
problem No method for uncertainty decomposition in TabPFN.
method Casted as a Bayesian predictive inference problem, derived variance estimators using predictive CLT.
result Fast to compute credible bands that target epistemic uncertainty and achieve near-nominal frequentist coverage.
Deep Bayesian neural networks effectively select variables with rigorous uncertainty quantification.
problem High-dimensional variable selection with uncertainty.
method Developed new Bayesian non-parametric theorems for deep BNNs.
result BNNs can learn variable importance effectively in high dimensions and rigorously quantify uncertainty.
Cellular Electron CryoTomography (CECT) is a 3D imaging technique that captures information about the structure and spatial organization of macromolecular complexes within single cells, in near-native state and at sub-molecular resolution. Although template matching is often used to locate macromolecules in a CECT imag…
The paper discusses the role of monetary policy when potential output depends on the inflation rate. If the intention of the central bank is to maximize actual output growth, then it has to be credibly committed to a strict inflation targeting rule, and to take the MOGIR (the Maximizing Output Growth Inflation Rate) as…
New method attaches uncertainty to deep neural network predictions.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in deep learning predictions.
method Deep Dirichlet mixture network to learn and approximate classification probabilities.
result Construct credible intervals from learned Dirichlet mixture distribution.