A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method estimates convergence bounds for nonlinear Markov chains.
A new method estimates protein evolutionary fields and couplings from alignments.
The paper proposes methods to estimate MCMC quality with couplings, bounding Wasserstein distance.
Efficiently models tree-like data with coupled branches using HMMs.
New MCMC method tackles label-switching problem for clustering.
Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We introduce a Markov-switching modeling approach for price change, where the latent Markov proc…
Efficiently infers coupled hidden Markov models with noisy discrete observations.
We devise a USDCHF trading strategy using the dynamics of gold as a filter. Our strategy involves modelling both USDCHF and gold using a coupled hidden Markov model (CHMM). The observations will be indicators, RSI and CCI, which will be used as triggers for our trading signals. Upon decoding the model in each iteration…
We establish convergence to an invariant measure as time tends to infinity, for a large class of (possibly non-Markovian) stochastic volatility models. Our arguments are based on a novel coupling idea for Markov chains which also extends to Markov chains in random environments in an efficient way.
New framework for efficient optimal transport distances between Markov chains.
We study (backward) stochastic differential equations with noise coming from a finite state Markov chain. We show that, for the solutions of these equations to be `Markovian', in the sense that they are deterministic functions of the state of the underlying chain, the integrand must be of a specific form. This allows u…
Unbiased gradient estimation improves VAE performance.
New couplings improve understanding of molecular dynamics convergence.
Paper proposes a coupling-based diagnostic for SGD stepsize optimization.
Computing partition functions, the normalizing constants of probability distributions, is often hard. Variants of importance sampling give unbiased estimates of a normalizer Z, however, unbiased estimates of the reciprocal 1/Z are harder to obtain. Unbiased estimates of 1/Z allow Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling of "d…
New bounds show linear predictors rarely overfit with certain optimization methods.
Traditional stock market prediction methods commonly only utilize the historical trading data, ignoring the fact that stock market fluctuations can be impacted by various other information sources such as stock related events. Although some recent works propose event-driven prediction approaches by considering the even…
Introduces a probabilistic framework for dimension reduction methods.
Stein's method for measuring convergence to a continuous target distribution relies on an operator characterizing the target and Stein factor bounds on the solutions of an associated differential equation. While such operators and bounds are readily available for a diversity of univariate targets, few multivariate targ…
This work improves convergence guarantees for unadjusted HMC in KL and Rényi divergences.
We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we consider single-molecule experiments which indirectly measure the distinct steps in a b…
Novel weak MLMC scheme for Lévy-driven SDEs, applied to financial derivatives pricing.
We consider parallel asynchronous Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for problems where we can leverage (stochastic) gradients to define continuous dynamics which explore the target distribution. We outline a solution strategy for this setting based on stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling (SGHMC) …
We propose a Markov chain model for credit rating changes. We do not use any distributional assumptions on the asset values of the rated companies but directly model the rating transitions process. The parameters of the model are estimated by a maximum likelihood approach using historical rating transitions and heurist…
Linear-cost unbiased estimates for complex models via couplings.
We propose a restricted collapsed draw (RCD) sampler, a general Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler of simultaneous draws from a hierarchical Chinese restaurant process (HCRP) with restriction. Models that require simultaneous draws from a hierarchical Dirichlet process with restriction, such as infinite Hidden markov mod…
Proposes M-CHMM for robust modeling of multivariate healthcare time series.
We consider a stochastic factor financial model where the asset price process and the process for the stochastic factor depend on an observable Markov chain and exhibit an affine structure. We are faced with a finite time investment horizon and derive optimal dynamic investment strategies that maximize the investor's e…
Single sample estimation for hard-constrained models like SAT and coloring problems.
New CTBNs with clocks allow for non-exponential survival times.
In this paper, we consider a discrete time economy where we assume that the short term interest rate follows a quadratic term structure of a regime switching asset process. The possible non-linear structure and the fact that the interest rate can have different economic or financial trends justify the interest of Regim…
We consider the approximation of expectations with respect to the distribution of a latent Markov process given noisy measurements. This is known as the smoothing problem and is often approached with particle and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. These methods provide consistent but biased estimators when run fo…
We investigate the low-dimensional structure of deterministic transformations between random variables, i.e., transport maps between probability measures. In the context of statistics and machine learning, these transformations can be used to couple a tractable "reference" measure (e.g., a standard Gaussian) with a tar…
The analysis of nonstationary time series is of great importance in many scientific fields such as physics and neuroscience. In recent years, Gaussian process regression has attracted substantial attention as a robust and powerful method for analyzing time series. In this paper, we introduce a new framework for analyzi…
We develop a technique for generalising from data in which models are samplers represented as program text. We establish encouraging empirical results that suggest that Markov chain Monte Carlo probabilistic programming inference techniques coupled with higher-order probabilistic programming languages are now sufficien…
We present an algorithm to identify sparse dependence structure in continuous and non-Gaussian probability distributions, given a corresponding set of data. The conditional independence structure of an arbitrary distribution can be represented as an undirected graph (or Markov random field), but most algorithms for lea…
Lyapunov-based analysis shows polynomial sample complexity for WCMDPs and RBs.
Paper achieves sample complexity for actor-critic methods with minimal assumptions.
NUTS mixing time scales as d^(1/4) for Gaussian distributions.
We propose a simple model of the banking system incorporating a game feature where the evolution of monetary reserve is modeled as a system of coupled Feller diffusions. The Markov Nash equilibrium generated through minimizing the linear quadratic cost subject to Cox-Ingersoll-Ross type processes creates liquidity and …
Study financial markets using synchronization measures and clustering algorithms.
Directed acyclic graph (DAG) models are popular for capturing causal relationships. From observational and interventional data, a DAG model can only be determined up to its \emph{interventional Markov equivalence class} (I-MEC). We investigate the size of MECs for random DAG models generated by uniformly sampling and o…
SAHMM-VAE separates sources adaptively using hidden Markov priors.
uHMC achieves fast mixing in high dimensions with gradient evaluations.
We replace the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) which is traditionally used in in continuous speech recognition with a bi-directional recurrent neural network encoder coupled to a recurrent neural network decoder that directly emits a stream of phonemes. The alignment between the input and output sequences is established usin…
We consider the problem of model selection in Gaussian Markov fields in the sample deficient scenario. The benchmark information-theoretic results in the case of d-regular graphs require the number of samples to be at least proportional to the logarithm of the number of vertices to allow consistent graph recovery. When…
We provide a numerically robust and fast method capable of exploiting the local geometry when solving large-scale stochastic optimisation problems. Our key innovation is an auxiliary variable construction coupled with an inverse Hessian approximation computed using a receding history of iterates and gradients. It is th…
Improved convergence for actor-critic algorithms in MDPs.