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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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19385675 · May 202019922001200920172026
48 results for COVID-19 forecasting

A new machine learning model forecasts COVID-19 incidence at county level in the USA.

problem Inaccurate disease spread forecasting due to spatiotemporal homogeneity assumptions.
method Spatiotemporal machine learning using LSTM architecture with spatial and temporal features.
result COVID-LSTM outperforms COVID-19 Forecast Hub's Ensemble model in accuracy.

Research uses SWT and BDLSTM to forecast stock and oil prices amid COVID-19.

problem Impact of COVID-19 on stock and oil prices forecasting.
method Integrates Stationary Wavelet Transform and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory networks.
result BDLSTM+WT-ADA achieved satisfactory results in Crude Oil price forecasting.

Machine learning predicts COVID-19 activity in China.

problem Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 activity in Chinese provinces.
method Combines mechanistic disease models with digital traces (internet searches, news alerts). Uses clustering and data augmentation techniques.
result Stable and accurate forecasts 2 days ahead of current time, outperforming baseline models in 27 out of 32 provinces.

Bayesian models forecast COVID-19 hospitalizations at single sites.

problem Forecasting daily COVID-19 hospitalizations at a single hospital.
method Hierarchical Bayesian models with generalized Poisson likelihood and autoregressive/Gaussian process latent processes.
result Demonstrated superior performance compared to baselines in public datasets.

Study evaluates stock price forecasting models during the pandemic.

problem Forecasting stock prices during the Covid-19 pandemic.
method Four models (Long-Short Term Memory, XGBoost, Autoregression, Last Value) were tested on stock prices of Facebook, Amazon, Tesla, Google, and Apple.
result Autoregression and Last Value models outperform other models due to strong correlation between prices.

Statistical models outperform mechanistic models in short-term COVID-19 incidence forecasts.

problem Comparing accuracy of mechanistic vs statistical models for short-term COVID-19 incidence forecasts.
method Empirical comparison of forecasts from mechanistic and statistical models using daily incidence data from six US states.
result Statistical models are at least as accurate as mechanistic models and better capture volatility.

This paper analyzes forecasting models for COVID-19 cases and deaths.

problem Reliable forecasting of COVID-19 cases and deaths is crucial for managing the disease.
method Quantitative analysis of forecasting models across different regions in the US, evaluating model selection, hyperparameter tuning, and training time.
result Model selection is the most influential factor in forecasting performance.

LSTM models predict low likelihood of another COVID-19 wave in India.

problem Inaccurate and unreliable COVID-19 infection forecasting models due to data limitations and model complexity.
method Application of LSTM, bidirectional LSTM, and encoder-decoder LSTM models for multi-step infection forecasting.
result Predictions indicate low likelihood of another wave in October and November 2021.

A winning method for day-ahead electricity demand forecasting during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

problem Day-ahead electricity demand forecasting during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
method Online forecast combination of multiple point prediction models with a holiday adjustment procedure and smoothed Bernstein Online Aggregation (BOA).
result Excellent forecasting performance, particularly due to the holiday adjustment procedure and fully adaptive smoothed BOA approach.

Study uses regression and ML for COVID-19 mortality forecasting.

problem Forecasting COVID-19 mortality during the first wave in Spain.
method Cyclical curve log-regression, multivariate time series spatial residual correlation analysis, Bayesian approach, machine learning.
result Empirical analysis shows ML regression models perform better than traditional methods.

condLSTM-Q predicts COVID-19 deaths at county level with quantile forecasts.

problem Predicting COVID-19 mortality at fine geographical scales.
method Conditional Long Short-Term Memory networks with quantile output.
result Fine-scale quantile predictions inform about death toll distribution.

Small sample size hinders accurate long-term COVID-19 case predictions.

problem Difficulty in predicting medium and long-term COVID-19 case trends.
method Analysis of machine learning models' performance; feature selection; comparison of different models.
result Simple linear regression models provide reliable 2-week predictions but not beyond.

Model predicts COVID-19 spread with better accuracy than existing methods.

problem Limited daily samples in time for data-driven methods.
method Integrated spatiotemporal model combining epidemic differential equations and RNN.
result Model outperforms existing methods in forecasting cases.

Paper uses non-linear dimension reduction for better economic forecasting.

problem Analyzing economic effects of shocks in large datasets.
method Non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions.
result Non-linear dimension reduction techniques improve forecasting, especially in volatile data.

The paper evaluates various forecasting methods for inflation, finding ML models superior.

problem Forecasting inflation using disaggregated data and machine learning.
method Examines traditional and machine learning models, including random forest, for disaggregated and aggregated inflation forecasts.
result Aggregating disaggregated forecasts performs similarly to survey-based expectations and aggregate models.

X-Trend quickly adapts to new financial regimes, increasing Sharpe ratio by 18.9%.

problem Adapting to rapidly changing financial market conditions.
method Few-shot learning and cross-attention mechanism.
result X-Trend increases Sharpe ratio by 18.9% over a neural forecaster and 10-fold over a conventional strategy.

Adaptive models improve electricity demand forecasting during lockdown.

problem Poor load forecasting due to sudden consumption changes during lockdown.
method Adaptive generalized additive models with Kalman filters and expert aggregation.
result Significant reduction in prediction errors compared to traditional models.

Study evaluates deep learning models for cryptocurrency price prediction.

problem Accurate cryptocurrency price forecasting models are needed due to market volatility.
method Reviewed and evaluated deep learning models including LSTM, CNN, and Transformer.
result Convolutional LSTM with multivariate approach provides best prediction accuracy.

Analyzes COVID-19 data to predict mortality, forecast spread, and optimize resource allocation.

problem Challenges in patient triage, treatment, and care management during the pandemic.
method Integrated four-step approach combining descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analytics.
result Optimized resource allocation and informed policy decisions.

SQR Averaging improves probabilistic electricity price forecasting.

problem Accurate short-term price forecasting in electricity markets.
method Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging.
result SQR Averaging leads to profit increases of up to 3.5% in day-ahead power trading.

Estimates financial market impacts of COVID-19 using time-varying kernel density.

problem Estimating the impact of COVID-19 on financial markets over time.
method Time-varying kernel density estimation with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic.
result Determines the chronology and regional disparities of financial market impacts.

MES-LSTM hybrid method improves multivariate time series forecasting and mortality modeling.

problem Challenges in applying hybrid forecast methods to multivariate data.
method Generalized multivariate extension of ES-RNN, utilizing vectorized implementation.
result MES-LSTM shows significant improvement over pure statistical and deep learning methods in forecast accuracy and prediction interval construction.