Study applies financial models to predict COVID-19 pandemic.
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5 results for “ARIMAX”
problem Predicting the spread of COVID-19 using financial market models.
method Implemented ARIMAX and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) models, using Euler-Maruyama and Milstein methods for CIR*.
result CIR* framework provides accurate forecasts for pandemics.
This paper deals with inference and prediction for multiple correlated time series, where one has also the choice of using a candidate pool of contemporaneous predictors for each target series. Starting with a structural model for the time-series, Bayesian tools are used for model fitting, prediction, and feature selec…
Forecasting the Leading Indicator of a Recession: The 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spreadq-fin.ST
Paper forecasts recession indicators using yield spread models.
problem Forecasting the leading indicator of a recession using yield spread.
method Applied econometric time series and machine learning models to forecast yield spread.
result Parsimonious univariate ARIMA model outperforms richly parameterized VAR method.
Study uses multiple online media to predict crude oil prices.
problem Forecasting crude oil prices using online media.
method Semantic analysis and ARIMAX models on Twitter, Google Trends, Wikipedia, and GDELT.
result Combined analysis from four platforms improves price prediction.
Machine learning predicts CO2 emissions in power grids, reducing uncertainty.
problem Forecasting CO2 emission intensities in power grids.
method Developed a machine learning algorithm using LASSO, feature selection, and Softmax weighted average.
result Marginal emissions are independent of DK2 zone conditions, suggesting external generators.