A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Machine learning struggles to predict binary options movements due to randomness.
In this paper we extend Buchen's method to develop a new technique for pricing of some exotic options with several expiry dates(more than 3 expiry dates) using a concept of higher order binary option. At first we introduce the concept of higher order binary option and then provide the pricing formulae of -th order b…
In this paper the Buchen's pricing formulae of (higher order) asset and bond binary options are incorporated into the pricing formula of power binary options and a pricing formula of "the normal distribution standard options" with the maturity payoff related to a power function and the density function of normal distri…
The paper analyzes binary option markets with exogenous information and price sensitivity.
In this article, we study the problem of pricing defaultable bond with discrete default intensity and barrier under constant risk free short rate using higher order binary options and their integrals. In our credit risk model, the risk free short rate is a constant and the default event occurs in an expected manner whe…
Develops a binary tree model for option pricing with skew dynamics.
A method for making predictions with a reject option using conformal prediction.
Adversarial robustness improved by abstaining from decisions.
The paper studies large deviation principles for stochastic volatility models with reflection, focusing on binary barrier options and call prices.
Extends BBSM model to incorporate ESG ratings and path dynamics.
Adaptive Multilevel Splitting improves rare event pricing for financial derivatives.
Study volatility models with rough paths, focusing on large deviations and option behavior.
Active learning is an important technique to reduce the number of labeled examples in supervised learning. Active learning for binary classification has been well addressed in machine learning. However, active learning of the reject option classifier remains unaddressed. In this paper, we propose novel algorithms for a…
We consider the problem of binary classification where one can, for a particular cost, choose not to classify an observation. We present a simple proof for the oracle inequality for the excess risk of structural risk minimizers using a lasso type penalty.
Quasi-Monte Carlo speeds up option Greeks calculation on GPUs.
This paper considers binomial approximation of continuous time stochastic processes. It is shown that, under some mild integrability conditions, a process can be approximated in mean square sense and in other strong metrics by binomial processes, i.e., by processes with fixed size binary increments at sampling points. …
In this article, we consider a 2 factors-model for pricing defaultable bond with discrete default intensity and barrier where the 2 factors are stochastic risk free short rate process and firm value process. We assume that the default event occurs in an expected manner when the firm value reaches a given default barrie…
In many real applications of statistical learning, a decision made from misclassification can be too costly to afford; in this case, a reject option, which defers the decision until further investigation is conducted, is often preferred. In recent years, there has been much development for binary classification with a …
A new method for creating derivatives without oracles.
Enhances preference learning by incorporating response times into binary choices.
What do binary (or probabilistic) forecasting abilities have to do with overall performance? We map the difference between (univariate) binary predictions, bets and "beliefs" (expressed as a specific "event" will happen/will not happen) and real-world continuous payoffs (numerical benefits or harm from an event) and sh…
Enhances binomial model with machine learning for microstructure effects.
Prediction markets and crypto options show persistent pricing gaps.
A new model prices assets considering market microstructure effects.
Modern datasets are becoming heterogeneous. To this end, we present in this paper Mixed-Variate Restricted Boltzmann Machines for simultaneously modelling variables of multiple types and modalities, including binary and continuous responses, categorical options, multicategorical choices, ordinal assessment and category…
We consider the estimation of binary election outcomes as martingales and propose an arbitrage pricing when one continuously updates estimates. We argue that the estimator needs to be priced as a binary option as the arbitrage valuation minimizes the conventionally used Brier score for tracking the accuracy of probabil…
We propose a general framework for the simultaneous modeling of equity, government bonds, corporate bonds and derivatives. Uncertainty is generated by a general affine Markov process. The setting allows for stochastic volatility, jumps, the possibility of default and correlation between different assets. We show how to…
Survey on assessing and improving classifier calibration for better decision making.
Algorithm learns binary function efficiently under arbitrary covariate shift.
Enhanced Random Forests outperform XGBoost across binary classification datasets.
Developed R package for creating nomograms for any ML algorithms.
Recombinant binomial trees are binary trees where each non-leaf node has two child nodes, but adjacent parents share a common child node. Such trees arise in finance when pricing an option. For example, valuation of a European option can be carried out by evaluating the expected value of asset payoffs with respect to r…
In this paper I empirically investigate prediction markets for binary options. Advocates of prediction markets have suggested that asset prices are consistent estimators of the "true" probability of a state of the world being realized. I test whether the market reaches a "consensus." I find little evidence for converge…
Gonogo offers tools for sensitivity experiments in R.
We consider the -ary classification problem via crowdsourcing, where crowd workers respond to simple binary questions and the answers are aggregated via decision fusion. The workers have a reject option to skip answering a question when they do not have the expertise, or when the confidence of answering that questio…
Binary classification rules based on covariates typically depend on simple loss functions such as zero-one misclassification. Some cases may require more complex loss functions. For example, individual-level monitoring of HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) requires periodic assessment of treatment…
Bayesian inference identifies model parameters from financial data to detect arbitrage opportunities.
We use data on 124 batteries released by Stanford University to first try to solve the binary classification problem of determining if a battery is "good" or "bad" given only the first 5 cycles of data (i.e., will it last longer than a certain threshold of cycles), as well as the prediction problem of determining the e…
Motivated by an application in computational biology, we consider low-rank matrix factorization with -constraints on one of the factors and optionally convex constraints on the second one. In addition to the non-convexity shared with other matrix factorization schemes, our problem is further complicated by a c…
The scheduling of films is a major problem for the movie theatre exhibition business. The problem is two-fold: movie exhibitors ideally would like to schedule films to screens in their various locations to maximize attendance and revenue, but would also like to schedule these films such that neighbouring theatre locati…
This work presents a new strategy for multi-class classification that requires no class-specific labels, but instead leverages pairwise similarity between examples, which is a weaker form of annotation. The proposed method, meta classification learning, optimizes a binary classifier for pairwise similarity prediction a…
This paper provides fast estimates for complex option types.
Large deviation principles for multivariate stochastic volatility models.
Study bounds for prices of European and American options with optional termination.
New option pricing formulas for American and Bermudan options.
Path integral method calculates barrier option prices.
New framework identifies hidden risks and optionality in American options.
American options can be equivalent to European options under certain conditions.