A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We propose an approach to reduce the bias of ridge regression and regularization kernel network. When applied to a single data set the new algorithms have comparable learning performance with the original ones. When applied to incremental learning with block wise streaming data the new algorithms are more efficient due…
Recent years have seen an increased level of interest in pricing equity options under a stochastic volatility model such as the Heston model. Often, simulating a Heston model is difficult, as a standard finite difference scheme may lead to significant bias in the simulation result. Reducing the bias to an acceptable le…
In this note, we study the relationship between the variational gap and the variance of the (log) likelihood ratio. We show that the gap can be upper bounded by some form of dispersion measure of the likelihood ratio, which suggests the bias of variational inference can be reduced by making the distribution of the like…
In this paper we propose using the principle of boosting to reduce the bias of a random forest prediction in the regression setting. From the original random forest fit we extract the residuals and then fit another random forest to these residuals. We call the sum of these two random forests a \textit{one-step boosted …
Decision trees with binary splits are popularly constructed using Classification and Regression Trees (CART) methodology. For binary classification and regression models, this approach recursively divides the data into two near-homogenous daughter nodes according to a split point that maximizes the reduction in sum of …
This paper presents a general iterative bias correction procedure for regression smoothers. This bias reduction schema is shown to correspond operationally to the L2 Boosting algorithm and provides a new statistical interpretation for L2 Boosting. We analyze the behavior of the Boosting algorithm applied to commo…
We consider the off-policy evaluation problem in Markov decision processes with function approximation. We propose a generalization of the recently introduced \emph{emphatic temporal differences} (ETD) algorithm \citep{SuttonMW15}, which encompasses the original ETD(λ), as well as several other off-policy evaluation …
Unified framework for output analysis using Monte Carlo sampling.
problem Accurately assess the quality of estimated values in predictive models.
method Unified output analysis framework through Monte Carlo sampling, leveraging fast iterative bootstrap sampling and higher-order influence functions.
result Clear advantage in building more robust confidence intervals with higher coverage probability.
Bias in Word Embeddings has been a subject of recent interest, along with efforts for its reduction. Current approaches show promising progress towards debiasing single bias dimensions such as gender or race. In this paper, we present a joint multiclass debiasing approach that is capable of debiasing multiple bias dime…
Infinite horizon off-policy policy evaluation is a highly challenging task due to the excessively large variance of typical importance sampling (IS) estimators. Recently, Liu et al. (2018a) proposed an approach that significantly reduces the variance of infinite-horizon off-policy evaluation by estimating the stationar…
In the covariate shift learning scenario, the training and test covariate distributions differ, so that a predictor's average loss over the training and test distributions also differ. In this work, we explore the potential of extreme dimension reduction, i.e. to very low dimensions, in improving the performance of imp…
Peer effects, in which the behavior of an individual is affected by the behavior of their peers, are posited by multiple theories in the social sciences. Other processes can also produce behaviors that are correlated in networks and groups, thereby generating debate about the credibility of observational (i.e. nonexper…
To improve the efficiency of Monte Carlo estimation, practitioners are turning to biased Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures that trade off asymptotic exactness for computational speed. The reasoning is sound: a reduction in variance due to more rapid sampling can outweigh the bias introduced. However, the inexactness …