Paper analyzes ECE bias and provides bounds for its estimation.
problem Understanding the estimation bias in ECE for machine learning models.
method Information-theoretic approach to analyze bias in uniform mass and uniform width binning strategies.
result Established upper bounds on ECE estimation bias and optimal number of bins.
The paper explores the trade-off between bias and variance in high-dimensional models.
problem Understanding the unavoidable trade-off between bias and variance in high-dimensional statistical models.
method Proposes a general strategy to obtain lower bounds on the variance of estimators with a specified bias, and applies it to various statistical models.
result Shows the extent to which the bias-variance trade-off is unavoidable and quantifies the performance loss for methods that do not balance it.
Paper analyzes LSA algorithm bias and error bounds with RR extrapolation.
problem Analyzing bias and high-order error bounds of LSA with Markovian noise.
method Polyak-Ruppert averaging, linearization, Richardson-Romberg extrapolation.
result RR extrapolation effectively cancels the leading bias term.
Algorithm bounds causal queries under selection bias.
problem Selection bias affects causal analysis.
method Proposes a new algorithm to address both identifiable and unidentifiable causal queries.
result The likelihood of available data is unimodal, enabling bounds on causal queries.
Proposes bounds on bias from low-dimensional representations in CATE estimation.
problem Bias in CATE estimation due to low-dimensional representations.
method Proposes a refutation framework to estimate bounds on representation-induced confounding bias.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of refutation framework in practice.
New bounds show SGD can match deterministic gradient descent's convergence rate.
problem Optimizing SGD convergence rate under strong convexity and smoothness.
method Computer-aided Lyapunov analysis, focusing on bias-optimal bounds.
result SGD achieves optimal convergence rate in bias terms for a wide range of step-sizes.
Estimating and optimizing Mutual Information (MI) is core to many problems in machine learning; however, bounding MI in high dimensions is challenging. To establish tractable and scalable objectives, recent work has turned to variational bounds parameterized by neural networks, but the relationships and tradeoffs betwe…
Paper tackles bias-variance trade-off in missing data, proposing a dynamic framework.
problem Missing data in practical applications deteriorates model performance.
method Develops a fine-grained dynamic learning framework to jointly optimize bias and variance.
result Theoretical and empirical validation of joint bias-variance optimization.
Study shows exponential error reduction in multiclass classification without bias-variance trade-off.
problem Multiclass classification with margin conditions.
method Analysis of classification error under hard-margin conditions.
result Exponential decrease in classification error without bias-variance trade-off.
PAC-MCTS addresses biased search in LLM-guided planning by dynamically pruning.
problem Systematic biases in LLMs lead to inefficient and unsafe search in deep planning tasks.
method Formulates node expansion as BAI under bounded bias, derives sample complexity bounds, and proposes PAC-MCTS for dynamic confidence bounds.
result PAC-MCTS improves robustness and efficiency by up to 78% fewer API evaluations and 3x higher sample efficiency.
New method predicts model performance under selection bias in healthcare.
problem Selection bias limits model generalizability in healthcare.
method Proposes a novel upper bound method for estimating model performance.
result Validates and demonstrates the practical utility of the method.
New Hessian estimators for Riemannian manifolds with reduced bias.
problem Estimating Hessians on Riemannian manifolds with reduced bias and computational efficiency.
method Introducing new stochastic zeroth-order Hessian estimators using O(1) function evaluations. result Achieved a bias bound of order O(γδ2) for analytic real-valued functions. A neural framework corrects bias in estimating individual treatment effects.
problem Estimating individual treatment effects from observational data.
method An anchored neural architecture and precision-corrected intersection-bound inference.
result Corrected bias and maintained nominal coverage in high-dimensional settings.
The Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimator is among the most popular nonparameteric regression technique thanks to its simplicity. Its asymptotic bias has been studied by Rosenblatt in 1969 and has been reported in a number of related literature. However, Rosenblatt's analysis is only valid for infinitesimal bandwidth. In co…
BR-SNIS reduces bias in self-normalized IS without increasing variance.
problem Bias in self-normalized IS.
method Iterated sampling-importance resampling (ISIR) to form a bias-reduced estimator.
result Significant reduction in bias without increasing variance.
New method quantifies inductive bias for machine learning tasks.
problem Quantifying the amount of inductive bias in machine learning models.
method Estimates inductive bias by modeling loss distribution of random hypotheses.
result Higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias.
We consider the off-policy evaluation problem in Markov decision processes with function approximation. We propose a generalization of the recently introduced \emph{emphatic temporal differences} (ETD) algorithm \citep{SuttonMW15}, which encompasses the original ETD(λ), as well as several other off-policy evaluation …
Study contextual online pricing with biased offline data, achieving optimal regret bounds.
problem Contextual online pricing with biased offline data.
method Identify δ2 to measure data bias, use OFU policy and robust variant for unknown bias. result Achieve minimax-optimal regret bounds for contextual pricing.
This paper analyzes the bias of inexact MCMC methods in high dimensions.
problem Understanding the bias of inexact MCMC methods in high-dimensional spaces.
method Establishing bounds on Wasserstein distances between inexact MCMC methods and target distributions.
result The asymptotic bias of ULA and uHMC depends on key quantities related to the target distribution or the stationary probability measure of the scheme.
Study improves confidence measures in medical imaging pipelines by addressing bias.
problem Bias in metric-based imaging pipelines compromises the efficiency of prediction intervals.
method Formalized symmetric and asymmetric CP formulations, analyzed bias effects, and validated empirically.
result Symmetric intervals are inflated by bias, while asymmetric intervals remain unaffected.
A method learns common bias for multiple low-variance tasks without hyper-parameter tuning.
problem Learning common bias for multiple low-variance tasks without manual tuning.
method Two variants of online learning methods (aggressive and lazy) that update bias after each datapoint or at the end of each task.
result Across-tasks regret bound derived for the method, showing faster rates for aggressive variant and standard rates for lazy variant.
New algorithm mitigates affinity bias in hiring feedback loops.
problem Mitigating affinity bias in hiring decisions to avoid unconscious favoritism.
method Introducing affinity bandits, a new bandit variant that accounts for evolving biased feedback.
result Elimination-style algorithm nearly matches the derived regret bound, outperforming classical algorithms.
Theory and methods to mitigate omitted variable bias in causal machine learning.
problem Mitigating omitted variable bias in causal machine learning models.
method Developed a general theory and flexible statistical inference methods for bounding and testing the magnitude of omitted variable bias.
result Simple plausibility judgments can bound the magnitude of omitted variable bias in complex, nonlinear models.
The paper analyzes optimal implicit bias in linear regression for over-parameterized models.
problem Finding the best generalization performance in over-parameterized linear regression.
method Asymptotic analysis of generalization performance for convex functions/potentials.
result Optimal implicit bias that achieves the best generalization error under certain conditions.
Mirror Langevin Algorithm converges with zero bias.
problem Achieving convergence with zero bias in discrete-time sampling.
method Discretization of Mirror Langevin Diffusion and mean-square analysis.
result Mirror Langevin Algorithm converges with zero bias.
Open problem: Establishing bounds for Cayley-table completion to discover discrete algorithmic axioms.
problem Discovering discrete algorithmic axioms missing in deep learning.
method Cayley-table completion as a testbed for algorithmic complexity minimization.
result Formal exact recovery bounds for Cayley-table completion.
Intersectional constraints improve selection outcomes by reducing inequality.
problem Persistent inequality and reduced utility in selection processes due to implicit bias.
method Introducing intersectional constraints to mitigate the adverse effects of implicit bias in selection processes.
result Intersectional constraints can recover almost all the utility achievable in the absence of implicit bias, offering a significant advantage over non-intersectional constraints.
SGD in linear regression overfits but performs well due to bias-variance trade-off.
problem Understanding overfitting in SGD for linear regression.
method Constant-stepsize SGD with iterate averaging or tail averaging, analyzing full eigenspectrum of data covariance matrix.
result Sharp excess risk bounds revealing bias-variance decomposition for SGD in linear regression.
ASGD outperforms SGD in overparameterized linear regression, especially in subspaces of small eigenvalues.
problem Generalization of ASGD for overparameterized linear regression.
method Established instance-dependent excess risk bound for ASGD in each eigen-subspace of the data covariance matrix.
result ASGD outperforms SGD in subspaces of small eigenvalues, exhibiting faster decay of bias error.
For an autonomous agent, executing a poor policy may be costly or even dangerous. For such agents, it is desirable to determine confidence interval lower bounds on the performance of any given policy without executing said policy. Current methods for exact high confidence off-policy evaluation that use importance sampl…
Paper proposes a bias-constrained deep learning approach to non-linear estimation.
problem Designing unbiased estimators for non-linear models.
method Bias Constrained Estimator (BCE) using deep learning with bias constraints.
result Asymptotic MVUEs with Cramer Rao bound performance.
The paper tackles bandit problems with biased offline data by using causal methods.
problem Improving bandit algorithms with biased offline data that includes confounding and selection biases.
method Formalizes the problem from a causal perspective, categorizes biases, and derives robust bounds for each arm.
result Causal bounds can guide the bandit agent to learn a nearly-optimal decision policy and consistently reduce asymptotic regret.
Building on the view of machine learning as search, we demonstrate the necessity of bias in learning, quantifying the role of bias (measured relative to a collection of possible datasets, or more generally, information resources) in increasing the probability of success. For a given degree of bias towards a fixed targe…
Paper addresses underestimation bias in double Q-learning, proposing a method to improve learning performance.
problem Underestimation bias in double Q-learning leading to non-optimal fixed points.
method Proposes a simple approach using approximate dynamic programming to bound the target value.
result Significant improvement in learning performance over baseline algorithms in Atari benchmark tasks.
The sample mean is among the most well studied estimators in statistics, having many desirable properties such as unbiasedness and consistency. However, when analyzing data collected using a multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiment, the sample mean is biased and much remains to be understood about its properties. For exampl…
This paper improves meta-learning by developing new PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem Meta-learning generalization gap across multiple tasks.
method Upper bounding convex functions linking environment and task-level losses.
result New PAC-Bayes bounds for meta-learning with improved algorithms.
Learning algorithms need bias to generalize and perform better than random guessing. We examine the flexibility (expressivity) of biased algorithms. An expressive algorithm can adapt to changing training data, altering its outcome based on changes in its input. We measure expressivity by using an information-theoretic …
Paper proposes a new method to separate low rank and sparse matrices without bias.
problem Recovering low rank and sparse matrices from measurements.
method Uses nonconvex regularizers and alternating proximal gradient descent.
result Error bounds for the algorithm applied to sparse optimization, matrix completion, and robust PCA.
Unified framework for intersectionally fair AI models using MIO.
problem Bias in AI models for high-risk domains.
method Mixed-Integer Optimization (MIO) for fairness and interpretability.
result Improved performance in detecting and mitigating bias at intersections.
Extended Gauss-Markov theorem for linear estimation with bounded bias.
problem Linear estimation with bounded bias operator.
method Derive optimal estimator formulas for Nuclear and Spectral norms, analyze generalization error.
result Cross-validated Nuclear and Spectral regressors outperform Ridge regression in simulations.
Centered plug-in estimators reduce bias in Wasserstein distance estimation.
problem Conservative bias in plug-in estimators of Wasserstein distances.
method Centering procedure based on linear combinations to reduce bias.
result Centered plug-in estimators provide informative upper and lower bounds on Wasserstein distances.
Boundary effects inflate variance in Gaussian processes, leading to acquisition bias.
problem Boundary-induced acquisition bias in Gaussian processes.
method Traced root cause to geometric mechanism of kernel truncation at domain boundaries.
result Boundary effects create distortion that worsens with dimensionality, affecting acquisition behavior.
A new algorithm reduces bias in estimating model parameters.
problem Efficient estimation of model parameters in non-linear state-space models.
method Parisian particle Gibbs (PPG) algorithm for bias reduction in online learning.
result Non-asymptotic bounds on bias and variance for PPG.
Study reveals how spectral bias affects learnability on real-world data.
problem Understanding how well complex datasets can be learned using kernel methods.
method Use eigenvalues and eigenfunctions from idealized data to reveal spectral bias on real-world data.
result Bound learnability on real-world data using symmetries of realistic kernels.
This paper investigates bias in resampled backtests for financial portfolios, finding it often negligible.
problem Bias in resampled backtests for financial portfolio evaluation.
method Investigation of bias in rolling-window mean-variance portfolios using resampling techniques.
result The bias in Sharpe Ratio estimates from IID resampling is often a fraction of estimation noise, making it tolerable.
New estimator reduces bias and variance in tensor and matrix denoising.
problem Optimal bias-variance tradeoff in matrix and tensor estimation.
method One-step variant of higher-order SVD (HOSVD) estimator.
result Achieves optimal bias-variance tradeoff in both matrix and tensor settings.
New models avoid lookahead bias by training on past data only.
problem Lookahead bias in language models.
method Chronologically consistent training on data before a knowledge-cutoff date.
result Elimination of lookahead bias in predictions.
The study reveals simplicity bias in neural networks leading to better compositional mappings.
problem Understanding when and how to encourage neural networks to learn compositional mappings.
method Examined compositional mappings through coding length and gradient descent dynamics.
result Neural networks tend to learn the simplest bijections, explaining their good generalization.