This paper presents a brand new nonparametric density estimation strategy named the best-scored random forest density estimation whose effectiveness is supported by both solid theoretical analysis and significant experimental performance. The terminology best-scored stands for selecting one density tree with the best e…
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48 results for “Best Estimate”
Stacked regressions improve predictive accuracy by combining estimators.
problem Improve predictive accuracy in regression models.
method Analogous to least-squares, learn combination weights by minimizing regularized empirical risk with nonnegativity constraint.
result The stacked estimator has strictly smaller population risk than the best single estimator, especially when signal-to-noise ratio is small.
Within the context of traditional life insurance, a model-independent relationship about how the market value of assets is attributed to the best estimate, the value of in-force business and tax is established. This relationship holds true for any portfolio under run-off assumptions and can be used for the validation o…
This note fills the gap in market-consistent valuation of lifelong health insurance products.
problem Market-consistent valuation of lifelong health insurance products is not well-addressed.
method Constructs a valuation portfolio to separate Best Estimate into policy data and financial instrument prices.
result The Best Estimate valuation is not uniquely determined by prevailing term structures and requires a stochastic model.
Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is the workhorse of modern machine learning. Sometimes, there are many different potential gradient estimators that can be used. When so, choosing the one with the best tradeoff between cost and variance is important. This paper analyzes the convergence rates of SGD as a function of ti…
New strategy optimally identifies best arm in unknown variance Gaussian bandits.
problem Identifying the best arm in two-armed Gaussian bandits with unknown variances.
method Proposes a Neyman Allocation (NA)-Augmented Inverse Probability weighting (AIPW) strategy to estimate variances and draw arms adaptively.
result Demonstrates asymptotic optimality of the proposed strategy in the small-gap regime.
Debiased Machine Learning of Conditional Average Treatment Effects and Other Causal Functionsstat.ME
This paper provides estimation and inference methods for the best linear predictor (approximation) of a structural function, such as conditional average structural and treatment effects, and structural derivatives, based on modern machine learning (ML) tools. We represent this structural function as a conditional expec…
Optimizes subset selection in sparse learning problems.
problem Sparse learning problems, particularly best subset selection.
method Developed an efficient primal-dual algorithm leveraging dual range estimation and incremental strategy.
result Improves solutions of best subset selection with reduced redundant computation.
In this paper, we consider a best action identification problem in the stochastic linear bandit setup with a fixed confident constraint. In the considered best action identification problem, instead of minimizing the accumulative regret as done in existing works, the learner aims to obtain an accurate estimate of the u…
A fast algorithm selects best subsets in high-dimensional models.
problem Identifying sparse models in high-dimensional generalized linear models.
method Splicing technique for fast and consistent best subset selection.
result Our algorithm achieves high certainty in selecting best subsets with polynomial computational complexity.
In this paper, we propose a verified numerical method for obtaining a sharp inclusion of the best constant for the embedding on bounded convex domain in . We estimate the best constant by computing the corresponding extremal function using a verified numerical com…
Study evaluates model selection methods for time series forecasting.
problem Evaluating which model is best for time series forecasting.
method Compared various estimation methods for selecting the best model.
result Accuracy of model selection estimators is low, and performance loss is significant.
Cross-validationmath.ST
This text is a survey on cross-validation. We define all classical cross-validation procedures, and we study their properties for two different goals: estimating the risk of a given estimator, and selecting the best estimator among a given family. For the risk estimation problem, we compute the bias (which can also be …
Algorithm identifies best arm with biased proxy and selective ground truth audits.
problem Fixed-confidence best-arm identification with biased proxy and selective ground truth.
method Propensity-weighted estimator and adaptive auditing algorithm.
result Plug-in Neyman rule achieves near-oracle audit efficiency.
FlexCodeTS is a flexible time series density estimator.
problem Estimating conditional densities for time series data.
method Nonparametric conditional density estimator based on arbitrary regression methods.
result FlexCodeTS adapts its convergence rate based on the chosen regression method.
Study optimizes experimental design for best treatment arm identification.
problem Identifying the best treatment arm given contextual information.
method Adaptive Sampling-Policy Learning (PLAS) strategy for minimax rate optimality.
result PLAS strategy achieves minimax rate optimality in expected simple regret.
We estimate the rate of change of the best constant in the Sobolev inequality of a Euclidean domain which moves outward. Along the way we prove an inequality which reverses the usual Holder inequality, which may be of independent interest.
New method optimizes language model performance for test-time strategies.
problem Mismatch between training objectives and test-time deployment of large language models.
method Tail-Extrapolated estimators to approximate best-of-N performance from limited training rollouts.
result Improved performance of best-of-N deployment across various models and datasets.
EBBS integrates expert assessments into MIO best-subsets problem.
problem Identifying relevant features in statistical models.
method Expert-implied Bayesian approach using MIO.
result Reduces to classical best-subsets when experts are silent.
RealCause provides a realistic benchmark for causal inference.
problem Lack of a reliable benchmark for comparing causal effect estimators.
method Flexible generative models to create a benchmark that is both ground-truth and realistic.
result Evaluation of over 1500 causal estimators provides evidence for choosing hyperparameters using predictive metrics.
Algorithm selects best model based on state, reducing costs.
problem Choosing the best model among many in different states of the world.
method Reinforcement learning algorithm to estimate optimal policy.
result Algorithm consistently selects optimal model based on covariates.
New model bridges pricing and reserving for insurance claims.
problem Incomplete claim data due to reporting and settlement delays.
method Develops an occurrence and development model to estimate both claims and premiums.
result Effective resolution of pricing and reserving inconsistencies.
Study best arm identification with contextual info, achieving optimal misidentification probability.
problem Identify the best treatment arm with minimal misidentification probability in a small gap scenario.
method Developed RS-AIPW strategy that matches lower bound of misidentification probability in the small-gap regime.
result RS-AIPW strategy is asymptotically optimal for best arm identification.
The profile of a sample is the multiset of its symbol frequencies. We show that for samples of discrete distributions, profile entropy is a fundamental measure unifying the concepts of estimation, inference, and compression. Specifically, profile entropy a) determines the speed of estimating the distribution relative t…
The paper tackles best arm identification in contaminated bandits with optimal error guarantees and sample complexity.
problem Best arm identification in stochastic bandits with adversarial reward contamination.
method Proposes two algorithms: a gap-based algorithm and a successive elimination-based algorithm for sub-Gaussian bandits.
result Asymptotically optimal sample complexity for both algorithms.
Optimal strategy found for identifying best arm in bandits with small gap.
problem Best arm identification in two-armed bandits with a fixed budget and small gap.
method Neyman allocation rule augmented with inverse probability weighting.
result Proposed strategy is asymptotically optimal when gap is small.
New algorithms identify best arm with less pulls, adapting to arm covariances.
problem Best arm identification under dependent and correlated arm distributions.
method Adaptive algorithms estimating arm covariances to minimize pulls.
result Substantial improvement in best arm identification over standard setting.
We study a seemingly unexpected and relatively less understood overfitting aspect of a fundamental tool in sparse linear modeling - best subset selection, which minimizes the residual sum of squares subject to a constraint on the number of nonzero coefficients. While the best subset selection procedure is often perceiv…
Given a set of empirical observations, conditional density estimation aims to capture the statistical relationship between a conditional variable and a dependent variable by modeling their conditional probability . The paper develops best practices for conditional den…
Efficient algorithm solves best subset selection problem.
problem Sparse learning problems, especially best subset selection.
method Primal-dual method based on dual forms of -regularized problems.
result Improves solutions of best subset selection with reduced redundant computation.
New algorithm identifies best arm efficiently in stochastic bandits.
problem Efficiently identifying the best arm in stochastic bandits with optimal performance.
method Develops a computationally efficient algorithm for optimal best arm identification.
result Achieves optimal performance with minimal computational complexity.
Optimal strategy identified for minimizing regret in fixed-budget best arm selection.
problem Minimizing expected simple regret in fixed-budget best arm selection.
method Two-Stage (TS)-Hirano-Imbens-Ridder (HIR) strategy using HIR estimator.
result TS-HIR strategy is asymptotically minimax optimal.
Ten sharp lower estimates of the first non-trivial eigenvalue of Laplacian on compact Riemannian manifolds are reviewed and compared. An improved variational formula, a general common estimate, and a new sharp one are added. The best lower estimates are now updated. The new estimates provide a global picture of what on…
New approach for reward-free exploration reduces estimation error.
problem Reward-free exploration in reinforcement learning.
method Adaptive approach reducing MDP estimation error.
result Reward-free UCRL algorithm improves sample complexity.
The study provides guarantees for diffusion-based models under log-concave data, offering best-known convergence rates.
problem Theoretical guarantees for convergence of diffusion-based generative models under log-concave data distributions.
method Assumption of strongly log-concave data distributions, Lipschitz continuous functions for score estimation, and novel auxiliary process.
result Best known upper bounds for Wasserstein-2 distance between Gaussian distribution and sampling algorithm.
We consider the problem of selecting the best estimator among a family of Tikhonov regularized estimators, or, alternatively, to select a linear combination of these regularizers that is as good as the best regularizer in the family. Our theory reveals that if the Tikhonov regularizers share the same penalty matrix wit…
While the objective in traditional multi-armed bandit problems is to find the arm with the highest mean, in many settings, finding an arm that best captures information about other arms is of interest. This objective, however, requires learning the underlying correlation structure and not just the means of the arms. Se…
New methods recover best rank-r approximations from few entries.
problem Recovering best rank-r approximations from limited data entries.
method Two agnostic approaches: spectral truncation and projected gradient descent.
result Projected gradient descent yields superior performance.
A novel algorithm reduces communication costs in federated best arm identification.
problem Identifying the best arm in a federated multi-armed bandit setup with minimal communication cost.
method Proposes a novel algorithm called FedElim that communicates only in exponential time steps.
result Demonstrates that communication is almost cost-free in FedElim, with a total cost at most 3 times the maximum under its variant.
New algorithm reduces high-dimensional data processing costs and achieves true sparsity.
problem High computational costs and difficulty in achieving true sparsity in distributed inference.
method Two-stage distributed best subset selection with oracle property.
result Correctly finds true sparsity pattern and achieves the oracle property.
New method selects best HTE estimator without ground-truth treatment effects.
problem Selecting best HTE estimator from multiple candidates.
method Cross-fitted, exponentially weighted test statistic with two-way sample splitting.
result Empirically, reliable error control and reduced false selections.
Study best-response learning dynamics in zero-sum polymatrix games under full and minimal information settings.
problem Learning dynamics in zero-sum polymatrix games under different information settings.
method Two-timescale learning dynamics combining smoothed best-response updates and TD-learning for estimating local payoff functions.
result Polynomial-time finite-sample guarantees for convergence to an ε-Nash equilibrium in the minimal information case.
On best subset regressionstat.ME
In this paper we discuss the variable selection method from \ell0-norm constrained regression, which is equivalent to the problem of finding the best subset of a fixed size. Our study focuses on two aspects, consistency and computation. We prove that the sparse estimator from such a method can retain all of the importa…
New algorithm reduces best-in-class regret in contextual bandits.
problem Compete with the best policy in a class without model restrictions.
method Proposes an algorithm that updates policies by minimizing a pessimistic objective, including a clipped inverse-propensity estimate and variance penalty.
result Achieves fast best-in-class regret rates, including polylogarithmic rates in the parametric case.
C-Learner improves stability of plug-in estimators for causal inference.
problem Limited overlap between treatment and control groups leads to unstable estimates.
method Constrained learning framework that achieves stability and asymptotic properties.
result Constrained learning produces stable estimates with desirable asymptotic properties.
Best-of-Majority improves inference performance in Pass@ settings.
problem Inference in difficult tasks often underperforms with single-shot selection methods.
method Combining majority voting and Best-of-N, Best-of-Majority restricts candidates to high-frequency responses.
result Best-of-Majority achieves minimax optimal regret and outperforms other methods.
Algorithm detects changes online using expert tracking.
problem Online change point detection in nonparametric settings.
method Sequential score function estimation and tracking the best expert approach.
result Algorithm performs well in artificial and real-world data.
The paper proposes methods to estimate positive examples and learn classifiers from mixed data.
problem Estimating the proportion of positive examples and learning classifiers from a mixture of positive and unlabeled data.
method Best Bin Estimation (BBE) for Mixture Proportion Estimation and Conditional Value Ignoring Risk (CVIR) for PU-learning.
result The proposed methods significantly improve both mixture proportion estimation and classifier learning.