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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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98195293390 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Bayesian testing

Bayesian methods improve group testing for identifying infected patients.

problem Identifying infected patients from group testing results with false positives.
method Bayesian inference and belief propagation algorithm, combined with expectation-maximization method.
result True-positive rate improved by considering credible intervals.

Proposes a semi-Bayesian nonparametric estimator for MMD in GOF tests and GANs.

problem Challenges in goodness-of-fit testing for intractable models.
method Semi-Bayesian nonparametric estimator of MMD.
result Outperforms frequentist MMD-based methods in false rejection and acceptance rates.

Bayesian MAML outperforms MAML in meta learning tasks with theoretical guarantees.

problem Theoretical understanding of Bayesian MAML's superiority over MAML.
method Comparison of meta test risks between Bayesian MAML and MAML in meta linear regression.
result Bayesian MAML has provably lower meta test risks than MAML in both distribution agnostic and linear centroid cases.

Paper proposes a new method for more accurate group testing of infected patients.

problem Identifying infected patients efficiently with reduced tests and corrected errors.
method Adaptive design of pools based on Bayesian posterior prediction using belief propagation algorithm.
result The proposed method results in more accurate identification of infected patients.

Unified Bayesian framework improves clinical trial hypothesis testing.

problem Lack of transparency and inability to quantify evidence in traditional P-values.
method Interval null hypothesis framework combined with Bayes factor-based tests.
result Bayesian interval hypothesis testing ensures frequentist error control and interpretability.

GTBO uses group testing to optimize high-dimensional functions efficiently.

problem Challenges in optimizing high-dimensional, expensive functions due to the curse of dimensionality.
method GTBO combines testing and optimization phases to identify active variables and guide efficient optimization.
result GTBO outperforms state-of-the-art methods on high-dimensional optimization tasks.

We consider testing and learning problems on causal Bayesian networks as defined by Pearl (Pearl, 2009). Given a causal Bayesian network M\mathcal{M} on a graph with nn discrete variables and bounded in-degree and bounded `confounded components', we show that O(logn)O(\log n) interventions on an unknown causal Bayesian ne…

2018-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

This letter presents a novel Block Bayesian Hypothesis Testing Algorithm (Block-BHTA) for reconstructing block sparse signals with unknown block structures. The Block-BHTA comprises the detection and recovery of the supports, and the estimation of the amplitudes of the block sparse signal. The support detection and rec…

2015-08-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a new method to improve Bayesian computation accuracy using flexible classification.

problem Bayesian computations accuracy check using rank-based simulation-based calibration has limitations.
method Replaces marginal rank test with a flexible classification approach that learns from data.
result Improves statistical power and provides an interpretable divergence measure of miscalibration.

VCoTTA uses variational Bayesian methods to adapt models under continuous domain shifts.

problem Error accumulation in continual test-time adaptation.
method VCoTTA employs variational Bayesian techniques to update a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) during testing, combining priors from source and teacher models.
result VCoTTA effectively mitigates error accumulation in CTTA, as shown by experimental results on three datasets.

In literature there are several studies on the performance of Bayesian network structure learning algorithms. The focus of these studies is almost always the heuristics the learning algorithms are based on, i.e. the maximisation algorithms (in score-based algorithms) or the techniques for learning the dependencies of e…

2011-01-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian method improves adaptive testing item selection, ensuring full item exposure.

problem Adaptive testing selects items to estimate ability, but must also ensure diverse item exposure.
method Formulated as Bayesian model averaging, deriving optimal item sampling probabilities.
result Stochastic method achieves full item bank exposure without sacrificing accuracy.

GTBO uses group testing to optimize high-dimensional functions efficiently.

problem Optimizing expensive, high-dimensional functions with limited data.
method Group testing to identify active dimensions, then guide optimization.
result GTBO outperforms state-of-the-art methods on high-dimensional benchmarks.

VarFA efficiently estimates student skill levels with uncertainty for adaptive testing.

problem Efficiently estimating student skill levels with uncertainty for adaptive testing.
method VarFA uses variational inference to extend factor analysis models for educational data.
result VarFA efficiently handles large datasets and produces uncertainty estimates.

Transformer pretraining yields strong EB performance without explicit adaptation.

problem Empirical Bayes problems with unknown test distributions.
method Indirect analysis of pretrained transformer's performance under universal priors.
result Near-optimal regret bound of O~(1n)\widetilde{O}(\frac{1}{n}) for arbitrary test distributions.

Formula derived for sample complexity in binary hypothesis testing.

problem Determine the minimum number of samples to distinguish between two distributions.
method Developed a formula for sample complexity in both prior-free and Bayesian settings, using Jensen-Shannon and Hellinger divergences.
result Formula characterizes sample complexity for a wide range of error parameters, up to multiplicative constants.

Variational Prediction simplifies Bayesian inference without test time costs.

problem Bayesian inference's computational costs and posterior predictive distribution marginalization.
method Variational Prediction learns a variational approximation to the posterior predictive distribution using a variational bound.
result Directly learns a variational approximation to the posterior predictive distribution without test time marginalization costs.

New test identifies specific biological parameters for personalized CVD detection.

problem Ineffectual pathology tests fail to consider platelet activation and inter-individual variability.
method Stochastic platelet deposition model and approximate Bayesian computation with discriminative summary statistics.
result Inferred parameters help identify specific biological parameters for personalized CVD detection.

A new method for assessing Bayesian sampling quality, PSD, is proposed and shown to be more powerful and efficient.

problem Scalability and convergence assessment of Bayesian sampling algorithms, especially for high-dimensional problems.
method Polynomial Stein Discrepancy (PSD) for measuring discrepancy between samples and posterior distributions.
result PSD detects differences in the first r moments for Gaussian targets and is more powerful and efficient than competitors.

Empirical analysis serves as an important complement to theoretical analysis for studying practical Bayesian optimization. Often empirical insights expose strengths and weaknesses inaccessible to theoretical analysis. We define two metrics for comparing the performance of Bayesian optimization methods and propose a ran…

2016-03-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian methods detect significant IIA violations in similarity choice data.

problem Detecting IIA violations in similarity choice data complicates classical models.
method Proposed two statistical methods: classical goodness-of-fit test and Bayesian PPC.
result Significant IIA violations confirmed in both datasets, driven by context effects.

Testing whether a probability distribution is compatible with a given Bayesian network is a fundamental task in the field of causal inference, where Bayesian networks model causal relations. Here we consider the class of causal structures where all correlations between observed quantities are solely due to the influenc…

2017-01-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a method to solve sparse Bayesian learning problems efficiently.

problem Finding sparsest solutions in high-dimensional settings.
method Sparse Bayesian learning with screening test to identify and remove zero coefficients.
result The method accelerates the solution process for sparse Bayesian learning problems.

Develops a method for stress testing correlations of financial portfolios.

problem Stress testing correlations in financial asset portfolios.
method Parametric representation of correlations, Bayesian variable selection, joint distribution of stress scenarios.
result Inference of worst-case correlation scenarios using stress tests.

The paper solves IRL for Bayesian stopping time problems.

problem Identifying optimal actions in Bayesian stopping time problems.
method Novel IRL framework using Bayesian revealed preferences.
result Identifies optimality and constructs cost function estimates.

Robust hypothesis testing designs a test for worst-case distributions using kernel methods.

problem Design a robust test for hypothesis testing under uncertainty sets.
method Data-driven uncertainty sets constructed using kernel mean embeddings and maximum mean discrepancy (MMD). Bayesian and Neyman-Pearson settings investigated.
result Proposed robust kernel tests are exponentially consistent and asymptotically optimal.

Paper proposes efficient method for evaluating Bayesian models in imaging.

problem Evaluation of Bayesian models in imaging when ground truth is unavailable.
method Novel combination of Bayesian cross-validation and data fission for unsupervised model selection and misspecification detection.
result Achieved excellent selection and detection accuracy with low computational cost.

One of the goals of probabilistic inference is to decide whether an empirically observed distribution is compatible with a candidate Bayesian network. However, Bayesian networks with hidden variables give rise to highly non-trivial constraints on the observed distribution. Here, we propose an information-theoretic appr…

2014-07-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper proposes a fast method to detect changes in audiometric function.

problem Detecting changes in psychometric function estimation quickly and accurately.
method Bayesian active differential selection for pure-tone audiogram testing.
result Fewer tones can detect changes in audiometric function with high confidence.

Bayesian method optimizes interventions for causal discovery.

problem Active interventions are needed for causal discovery when observational data is insufficient.
method Bayesian optimization-based approach using observational data and pre-experimental evaluation of interventions.
result Demonstrated effectiveness through various experiments.

New framework improves model reliability under distribution shifts.

problem Lack of formal guarantees connecting shift magnitude to prediction reliability in TTA methods.
method Develops a PAC-Bayesian framework interpreting MMD-balls as credal sets.
result Establishes generalization bounds and provides epistemic uncertainty quantification.