Bayesian neural networks with nonparametric noise models for system identification.
problem Estimating parameters and noise processes in stochastic dynamic systems.
method Bayesian nonparametric approach using neural networks and Gibbs sampler.
result The method converges to full nonparametric Bayesian regression model.
Solves parameter non-identifiability in Bayesian LTI system identification.
problem Parameter non-identifiability in standard Bayesian approaches for LTI system identification.
method Embedding canonical forms of LTI systems within the Bayesian framework.
result Unlocking the use of meaningful priors and robust uncertainty estimates.
This paper tackles Bayesian system identification with probabilistic numerical methods.
problem Accurately modeling nonlinear dynamic systems from noisy data.
method Probabilistic Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) combined with probabilistic numerical integration.
result Efficient identification of latent states and system parameters from noisy measurements.
A new Bayesian approach to linear system identification has been proposed in a series of recent papers. The main idea is to frame linear system identification as predictor estimation in an infinite dimensional space, with the aid of regularization/Bayesian techniques. This approach guarantees the identification of stab…
Bayesian filtering approach identifies nonlinear restoring forces in dynamic systems.
problem Identification of nonlinear dynamic systems in engineering.
method Modeling the nonlinear restoring force as a Gaussian process, converting it to a state-space model, and inferring internal states and the nonlinear restoring force through filtering and smoothing.
result The approach effectively identifies nonlinear restoring forces in both simulated and experimental datasets.
In this paper we introduce a novel method for linear system identification with quantized output data. We model the impulse response as a zero-mean Gaussian process whose covariance (kernel) is given by the recently proposed stable spline kernel, which encodes information on regularity and exponential stability. This s…
This paper compares classical parametric methods with recently developed Bayesian methods for system identification. A Full Bayes solution is considered together with one of the standard approximations based on the Empirical Bayes paradigm. Results regarding point estimators for the impulse response as well as for conf…
NSIBF detects anomalies in CPS using neural system identification and Bayesian filtering.
problem Detecting anomalies in CPS with complex dynamics and sensor noise.
method Neural System Identification and Bayesian Filtering (NSIBF).
result NSIBF outperforms state-of-the-art methods in anomaly detection for CPS.
We consider an on-line system identification setting, in which new data become available at given time steps. In order to meet real-time estimation requirements, we propose a tailored Bayesian system identification procedure, in which the hyper-parameters are still updated through Marginal Likelihood maximization, but …
Gaussian process state-space models (GP-SSMs) are a very flexible family of models of nonlinear dynamical systems. They comprise a Bayesian nonparametric representation of the dynamics of the system and additional (hyper-)parameters governing the properties of this nonparametric representation. The Bayesian formalism e…
GP-NODE combines Gaussian processes and NeuralODEs for Bayesian system identification.
problem Bayesian systems identification from partial, noisy and irregular observations.
method Differentiable programming, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Gaussian Process priors, sparsity-promoting priors.
result Efficient inference of posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty.
New MCMC method improves sampling efficiency across diverse structural models.
problem Low sampling efficiency in generic MCMC methods for specific problems.
method Adaptive Principal-Component (PC) Meta-learning Stochastic Gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (APM-SGHMC) algorithm.
result Universal samplers achieve zero-shot generalization across structurally distinct models.
Bayesian approach tackles collinearity in large-scale linear system identification.
problem Collinearity in large-scale linear system identification.
method Bayesian regularization framework with Gaussian process and stable spline kernel. Novel Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme.
result Efficiently reconstructs impulse responses posterior by dealing with collinearity.
Bayesian framework for robust model discovery from noisy data.
problem Robust model discovery from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear systems.
method Bayesian differential programming using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and sparsity-promoting priors.
result Efficient inference of posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty.
Unified Bayesian framework for LTV system identification using neural networks and Gaussian Processes.
problem Identifying Linear Time-Varying systems from input-output data.
method Bayesian modeling of impulse response as a stochastic process, using neural networks and Gaussian Processes for inference.
result Framework can infer LTI system properties from a single noisy input-output pair, achieving lower error than classical methods.
The paper analyzes methods for sparse Bayesian regression in nonlinear system identification.
problem Learning sparse models in Bayesian regression with nonlinear applications.
method Two classes of methods: regularization and thresholding based, built on automatic relevance determination (ARD).
result Analytical demonstration of favorable performance with sparse solutions in linear problems.
Bayesian method improves forecasting of nonseparable Hamiltonian systems with noise.
problem Forecasting nonseparable Hamiltonian systems with multiplicative noise.
method Bayesian approach using deep learning and reduced-order modeling.
result Bayesian method yields up to 724 times improvement in forecasting accuracy.
We introduce GP-FNARX: a new model for nonlinear system identification based on a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) with filtered regressors (F) where the nonlinear regression problem is tackled using sparse Gaussian processes (GP). We integrate data pre-processing with system identification into a fully …
Bayesian method improves online NARMAX model identification.
problem Online identification of nonlinear systems with small sample sizes and low noise.
method Variational Bayesian inference using message passing algorithm for polynomial NARMAX models.
result Variational Bayesian estimator outperforms recursive and offline least-squares methods.
This work proposes a new method for simultaneous probabilistic identification and control of an observable, fully-actuated mechanical system. Identification is achieved by conditioning stochastic process priors on observations of configurations and noisy estimates of configuration derivatives. In contrast to previous w…
This paper begins with considering the identification of sparse linear time-invariant networks described by multivariable ARX models. Such models possess relatively simple structure thus used as a benchmark to promote further research. With identifiability of the network guaranteed, this paper presents an identificatio…
Bayesian system ID improves robustness to sparse, noisy data.
problem Robust system identification with sparse, noisy data.
method Probabilistic formulation of system identification using Bayesian posterior.
result The log posterior is more robust and less affected by multiple minima.
Bayesian method identifies dynamical models with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in selecting governing equations for dynamical systems.
method Bayesian sparse identification with model averaging.
result Accurately recovers sparse interaction structures with uncertainty quantification.
A new method reduces Volterra kernel complexity and uncertainty quantification.
problem Challenges in modeling nonlinear systems with Volterra series due to high model order.
method Bayesian Tensor Network Volterra kernel machines (BTN-V) using canonical polyadic decomposition.
result Competitive accuracy, enhanced uncertainty quantification, and reduced computational cost.
This paper uses Bayesian optimization to efficiently identify stochastic dynamical systems.
problem Efficiently identifying linear stochastic dynamical systems with unknown coefficients and noise variances.
method Adaptive Bayesian optimization with ensemble Gaussian processes (EGP) and Kalman filter recursion.
result BO-based estimator achieves RMSE below the Cramer-Rao bound, improving robustness and consistency.
BLADE uses Bayesian methods to discover complex systems from scarce data.
problem Efficiently discovering governing equations of complex dynamical systems from limited data.
method Combines replica-exchange stochastic gradient Langevin Monte Carlo with active learning.
result Reduces measurement requirements by 60% for Lotka-Volterra and 40% for Burgers' equation.
The paper introduces a method for learning nonparametric Volterra kernels using Gaussian processes.
problem Learning nonparametric nonlinear operators from data.
method NVKM model using Volterra series and Gaussian processes for unobserved and observed input functions.
result The NVKM model can perform both single and multiple output regression and system identification.
In this paper we introduce a novel method for linear system identification with quantized output data. We model the impulse response as a zero-mean Gaussian process whose covariance (kernel) is given by the recently proposed stable spline kernel, which encodes information on regularity and exponential stability. This s…
Bayesian framework identifies dynamical systems from noisy data.
problem Identifying dynamical systems from time-series data with uncertainty quantification.
method Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) framework, including JMAP and VBA algorithms.
result Robust model selection metric based on Gaussian posterior norm.
In this paper, we propose an outlier-robust regularized kernel-based method for linear system identification. The unknown impulse response is modeled as a zero-mean Gaussian process whose covariance (kernel) is given by the recently proposed stable spline kernel, which encodes information on regularity and exponential …
Bayesian method for multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous inputs.
problem Estimating uncertainties in autoregressive models with exogenous inputs.
method Recursive Bayesian estimation via message passing in a factor graph.
result Produces full posterior distributions for autoregressive coefficients and noise precision.
Bayesian-SINDy learns differential equations from noisy data quickly.
problem Learning correct model equations from limited and noisy data.
method Bayesian-SINDy framework using Gaussian approximations.
result Bayesian-SINDy is more robust and accurate in learning correct model equations from noisy data.
Parameter identification and comparison of dynamical systems is a challenging task in many fields. Bayesian approaches based on Gaussian process regression over time-series data have been successfully applied to infer the parameters of a dynamical system without explicitly solving it. While the benefits in computationa…
Bayesian regularization tackles collinearity in large-scale systems with correlated inputs.
problem Collinearity in large-scale linear systems identification due to correlated inputs.
method Bayesian regularization with stable spline covariance and Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme.
result Efficient reconstruction of impulse responses with high correlation among inputs.
The focus in this paper is Bayesian system identification based on noisy incomplete modal data where we can impose spatially-sparse stiffness changes when updating a structural model. To this end, based on a similar hierarchical sparse Bayesian learning model from our previous work, we propose two Gibbs sampling algori…
BINDy uses Bayesian methods to identify nonlinear dynamics from data.
problem Learning sparse representations of complex dynamics from data.
method Bayesian treatment of dictionary learning system identification using reversible-jump Markov-chain Monte-Carlo.
result BINDy produces models that are sparse in model space rather than parameter space.
Sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for estimating interaction kernels in Motsch-Tadmor model.
problem Data-driven identification of asymmetric interaction kernels in the Motsch-Tadmor model.
method Variational framework reformulating kernel identification as a subspace identification problem; sparse Bayesian learning algorithm with informative priors.
result Accurate, robust, and interpretable estimation of interaction kernels across various noise levels and data regimes.
New method uses neural networks to identify sources from limited data in complex systems.
problem Identifying sources from noisy and limited data in high-dimensional systems.
method Calibrating deep neural network surrogates to ensemble simulations and using Bayesian optimization for source identification.
result Reliable source identification with uncertainty quantification using limited data and auxiliary processes.
Regularization and Bayesian methods for system identification have been repopularized in the recent years, and proved to be competitive w.r.t. classical parametric approaches. In this paper we shall make an attempt to illustrate how the use of regularization in system identification has evolved over the years, starting…
Paper derives PAC-Bayesian bounds for LTI systems learning from empirical data.
problem Characterizing predictive power of LTI systems learned from data.
method PAC-Bayesian bounds for LTI stochastic dynamical systems with inputs.
result Finite-sample error bounds for learning algorithms of LTI systems.
New method samples Jeffreys prior for objective Bayesian inference.
problem Sampling from Jeffreys prior is challenging.
method Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Algorithm
result Samples can be directly used in Bayesian methods.
The paper proposes a new system ID method from noisy data.
problem System identification of linear and nonlinear non-autonomous systems from noisy and sparse data.
method Bayesian formulation for learning a hidden Markov model with stochastic dynamics, analyzed in the context of least squares and multiple shooting approaches.
result The proposed approach outperforms existing methods in terms of mean squared error and model generalizability.
In processing and manufacturing industries, there has been a large push to produce higher quality products and ensure maximum efficiency of processes. This requires approaches to effectively detect and resolve disturbances to ensure optimal operations. While the control system can compensate for many types of disturban…
Bayesian autoencoders discover physics from noisy data.
problem Challenges in identifying governing equations and coordinates from noisy, low-data real-world data.
method Bayesian SINDy autoencoders with hierarchical Bayesian sparsifying prior and adaptive empirical Bayesian method.
result Better physics discovery with lower data and fewer training epochs, along with valid uncertainty quantification.
Bayesian methods reduce variance in subspace identification for small data sets.
problem High variance in traditional subspace identification methods for large models or small sample sizes.
method Investigation of Bayesian estimation solutions (regularized and shrinkage estimators) for subspace identification.
result Bayesian estimators reduce estimation risk by up to 40% compared to traditional methods.
New algorithm optimizes best arm identification with minimal regret.
problem Best arm identification in multi-armed bandit problems.
method Characterized Bayesian simple regret with continuity conditions of prior, proposed a simple algorithm.
result Proposed algorithm achieves rate-optimal Bayesian simple regret.
A new method selects variables efficiently for fast and accurate dynamic system identification.
problem Efficiently selecting variables for scalable Gaussian processes.
method Forward variable selection using Karhunen-Loève decomposition and Gibbs sampling.
result Method yields competitive accuracies and inference times for dynamic systems.
Recent developments in linear system identification have proposed the use of non-parameteric methods, relying on regularization strategies, to handle the so-called bias/variance trade-off. This paper introduces an impulse response estimator which relies on an ℓ2-type regularization including a rank-penalty derive…