New coin sampling method for Bayesian inference without learning rates.
problem Scalable Bayesian inference with learning rate tuning issues.
method Coin sampling for gradient-based Bayesian inference.
result Comparable performance to other ParVI algorithms without learning rate tuning.
Bayesian neural network achieves nearly optimal performance in Besov space.
problem Bayesian neural networks in Besov space.
method Spike-and-slab prior and shrinkage prior for posterior convergence rate.
result The posterior convergence rate is nearly minimax and adaptive to unknown smoothness.
Bayesian PINNs learn elliptic PDEs with near-minimax posterior contraction rate.
problem Learning elliptic PDEs with noisy data and non-homogeneous boundary conditions.
method Bayesian approach with a Hölder space prior on neural network weights.
result Posterior contracts at near-minimax rate without prior knowledge of solution smoothness.
Bayesian KANs achieve near-minimax posterior contraction rates in anisotropic Besov spaces.
problem Statistical foundation for Bayesian Kolmogorov-Arnold networks in anisotropic Besov spaces.
method Sparse Bayesian KANs with spike-and-slab priors, hyperprior on model size, and approximation complexity bounds.
result Posterior contraction rates depend on intrinsic anisotropic smoothness and effective dimension of the compositional structure.
BAMS uses Bayesian sampling to discover AV failures more efficiently and accurately.
problem Discovering potential failure cases in autonomous vehicles efficiently and accurately.
method Bayesian adaptive multifidelity sampling (BAMS) prioritizes exploration of low performance regions.
result BAMS discovers 10 times more issues than traditional methods with narrower rate estimates.
New algorithm optimizes best arm identification with minimal regret.
problem Best arm identification in multi-armed bandit problems.
method Characterized Bayesian simple regret with continuity conditions of prior, proposed a simple algorithm.
result Proposed algorithm achieves rate-optimal Bayesian simple regret.
Bayesian neural networks achieve optimal posterior contraction rates in Besov spaces with intrinsic dimensionality.
problem High-dimensional structured estimation problems with unknown smoothness levels.
method Sparse Bayesian neural networks with either sparse or continuous shrinkage priors.
result Optimal posterior contraction rates are achieved, adapting to the unknown smoothness level of the true function.
PAC-Bayesian bounds show fully connected DNNs with Gaussian priors match minimax rates.
problem Theoretical limits of fully connected deep neural networks with Gaussian priors.
method PAC-Bayesian bounds for fully connected Bayesian DNNs with Gaussian priors.
result PAC-Bayesian bounds match minimax-optimal rates in Besov space for nonparametric regression and binary classification.
Bayesian model improves categorization of explosions from sparse data.
problem Challenges in categorizing explosions from limited data.
method Bayesian update to Event Categorization Matrix model with Bayesian Decision Theory.
result Consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates.
This work improves mixing rates for Bayesian CART, a key component of BART.
problem Understanding and improving mixing rates for Bayesian inference with MCMC.
method Derived upper bounds on mixing times, provided sufficient conditions for polynomial mixing, and proposed Twiggy Bayesian CART.
result Twiggy Bayesian CART achieves polynomial mixing without assuming signal connectivity.
Paper analyzes convergence rate of noisy Bayesian Optimization with Expected Improvement.
problem Theoretical convergence behaviors and rates of Expected Improvement (EI) in Bayesian optimization.
method Analyzes Expected Improvement (EI) under Gaussian process (GP) prior assumption, considering noisy observations.
result Established asymptotic error bound and rate for GP-EI with noisy observations.
Bayesian and simulation methods predict credit default probabilities.
problem Assessing credit risk in large customer portfolios.
method Two-phase approach: Bayesian estimation followed by Monte Carlo simulations.
result Estimation of true default rates through simulations.
Bayesian rating system for large competitions improves prediction and efficiency.
problem Rating systems for large, competitive events like online programming contests.
method Developed a Bayesian rating system for many participants, proving robustness and runtime.
result The system outperforms existing systems in accuracy and computation speed.
Bayesian method with Gaussian process priors achieves optimal convergence rates for regression function and its derivatives.
problem Estimating the regression function and its derivatives in nonparametric regression.
method Bayesian approach with Gaussian process priors, focusing on convergence rates and plug-in property.
result Equivalence of convergence rates of posterior distributions and Bayes estimators for regression function and its derivatives.
We investigate the problem of estimating the causal effect of a treatment on individual subjects from observational data, this is a central problem in various application domains, including healthcare, social sciences, and online advertising. Within the Neyman Rubin potential outcomes model, we use the Kullback Leibler…
Bayesian optimisation for dynamically adjusting learning rates in machine learning models.
problem Dynamic adjustment of learning rates schedules in machine learning models.
method Probabilistic model based on latent Gaussian processes and auto-/regressive formulation.
result Flexibly adjusts learning rates schedules to abrupt changes of behaviours.
Unified Bayesian framework for CAT bond pricing.
problem Uncertainty in catastrophe occurrences and interest rates in CAT bond markets.
method Bayesian framework based on uncertainty quantification of catastrophes and interest rates.
result Unified asset pricing approach with informative expected risk premia.
Bayesian optimisation algorithm for unknown search spaces with sub-linear regret.
problem Efficient optimisation of expensive black-box functions in unknown search spaces.
method Expands search space over iterations based on a hyperharmonic series, scales to high dimensions.
result Sub-linear regret growth for both algorithms.
The paper analyzes distributed Bayesian inference and its Frequentist guarantees.
problem Analyzing large decentralized datasets with distributed Bayesian inference.
method Establishes Frequentist properties for distributed (non-)Bayesian inference.
result Distributed Bayesian inference retains parametric efficiency and enhances robustness.
Unified derivation of PAC-Bayes and MI bounds for general VC classes with fast rates.
problem Generalization bounds for machine learning models with VC classes.
method Unified derivation of conditional PAC-Bayesian and mutual information bounds, including MAC-Bayesian bounds.
result Nontrivial bounds for general VC classes and faster rates for specific conditions.
Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate inference improve regret bounds in stochastic linear bandits.
problem Theoretical justification for Bayesian bandit algorithms with approximate inference in stochastic linear bandits.
method Proposed a theoretical framework to analyze approximate inference impact and conducted frequentist regret analysis on LinTS and LinBUCB.
result LinTS and LinBUCB preserve their original regret upper bounds with larger constant terms in approximate inference settings.
In the paper, the pricing of Quanto options is studied, where the underlying foreign asset and the exchange rate are correlated with each other. Firstly, we adopt Bayesian methods to estimate unknown parameters entering the pricing formula of Quanto options, including the volatility of stock, the volatility of exchange…
Bayesian method improves neural net convergence for character recognition.
problem Improving convergence rate of neural network training algorithms.
method Customization of Kalman filter into Bayesian statistics for initialization of weights.
result Improved convergence rate for backpropagation training algorithm.
Study introduces new methods to estimate stock return rates.
problem Estimating the required rate of return for stocks and private companies.
method Maximum likelihood, Bayesian, and Kalman filtering methods applied to historical data.
result Suggested methods can accurately estimate the required rate of return.
A simplified Bayesian approach for online sports rating.
problem Rating players/teams based on game outcomes.
method Bayesian approach using Kalman filter principles.
result Known algorithms like Elo and TrueSkill are special cases.
Paper compares Bayesian and de-biased estimators for low-rank matrix completion.
problem Predict missing entries in partially observed matrices.
method Bayesian and de-biased estimators comparison.
result De-biased estimator performs similarly to Bayesian estimators but is more stable and can outperform in small samples.
The developments of Rademacher complexity and PAC-Bayesian theory have been largely independent. One exception is the PAC-Bayes theorem of Kakade, Sridharan, and Tewari (2008), which is established via Rademacher complexity theory by viewing Gibbs classifiers as linear operators. The goal of this paper is to extend thi…
Bayesian Optimization improves machine learning for detecting network attacks.
problem Detecting network attacks to secure critical information.
method Bayesian Optimization for tuning machine learning algorithms (SVM-RBF, RF, k-NN).
result The proposed framework achieves high accuracy and low false alarms.
In this paper, we investigate the statistical convergence rate of a Bayesian low-rank tensor estimator. Our problem setting is the regression problem where a tensor structure underlying the data is estimated. This problem setting occurs in many practical applications, such as collaborative filtering, multi-task learnin…
Study introduces new methods to estimate equity and liability required rates of return.
problem Estimating the required rates of return for equity and liabilities of companies.
method Used maximum likelihood, Bayesian, Kalman filtering, and market value evaluation methods.
result The new methods can accurately estimate the required rates of return.
Bayesian model predicts interest rates with short-term accuracy and long-term stability.
problem Improving short- and long-term prediction of time series with temporary non-stationary behavior.
method Time-varying autoregressive model with Bayesian regularization and MCMC inference.
result Model outperforms existing methods in both short and long-term predictions.
Improved sampling for Bayesian neural networks reduces vanishing acceptance rates and increases predictive accuracy.
problem Sampling inefficiency in Bayesian neural networks, especially with deep architectures and large datasets.
method Approximate blocked Gibbs sampling to partition and sample subgroups of parameters.
result Increased predictive accuracy and quantification of predictive uncertainty in classification tasks.
In this paper we address the following question: Can we approximately sample from a Bayesian posterior distribution if we are only allowed to touch a small mini-batch of data-items for every sample we generate?. An algorithm based on the Langevin equation with stochastic gradients (SGLD) was previously proposed to solv…
A novel hierarchical Bayesian approach to Federated Learning reduces data exposure and improves convergence rates.
problem Data privacy and convergence in Federated Learning.
method Hierarchical Bayesian modeling and block-coordinate descent optimization.
result The proposed algorithm converges to an optimal solution with a rate of O ( 1 / t ) O(1/\sqrt{t}) O ( 1/ t ) and guarantees vanishing generalization error. Bayesian PINN improves estimation of PDE solutions from noisy data.
problem Estimating solutions of PDEs from noisy measurements.
method Bayesian approach to Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) for inverse problems.
result Convergence rate of Bayesian posterior mean error in PDE solutions.
A new method predicts student skill success rates in real-time.
problem Accurate and explainable prediction of student skill success rates in real-time.
method Performance Distribution Tracing (PDT) using a Dynamic Bayesian Network with continuous random variables.
result PDT provides both explainability and accuracy in real-time predictions of student skill success rates.
Gaussian OBFS proves strong consistency in feature selection with correlations.
problem Feature selection consistency in the presence of correlations.
method Proves strong consistency of Gaussian OBFS under mild conditions.
result Identifies selected features and rates of convergence for different feature types.
CEI achieves convergence rates for constrained Bayesian optimization.
problem Constrained Bayesian optimization with theoretical convergence rates.
method Analyzing simple regret upper bound for CEI in RKHS and Gaussian process settings.
result CEI achieves convergence rates of t − 1 2 log d + 1 2 ( t ) t^{-\frac{1}{2}}\log^{\frac{d+1}{2}}(t) t − 2 1 log 2 d + 1 ( t ) and t − ν 2 ν + d log ν 2 ν + d ( t ) t^{\frac{-ν}{2ν+d}} \log^{\fracν{2ν+d}}(t) t 2 ν + d − ν log 2 ν + d ν ( t ) for squared exponential and Matérn kernels, respectively. Bayesian nonparametric models get better posterior estimates via SPDE methods.
problem Estimating posterior distributions in nonparametric Bayesian models.
method Extending diffusion methods to SPDEs on Hilbert spaces for posterior contraction and Laplace approximation.
result Derivation of posterior contraction rates and finite-sample Bernstein von Mises results.
New methods for inferring, predicting, and estimating continuous-time, discrete-event processes.
problem Inferring, predicting, and estimating entropy rate of continuous-time, discrete-event processes.
method Bayesian structural inference extended with neural networks.
result Methods are competitive for prediction and entropy-rate estimation with state-of-the-art.
Paper proposes a surrogate model for efficient experience rating in large insurance portfolios.
problem Inexpensive and transparent computation of Bayesian premiums for large insurance portfolios.
method Surrogate modeling approach using likelihood-based summary statistics.
result Reduced computational burden and provided a transparent way of computing Bayesian premiums.
Bayesian neural networks explore rare fluctuations for better feature learning.
problem Understanding rare but dominant fluctuations in Bayesian neural networks.
method Large-deviation theory and joint optimization over predictors and internal kernels.
result Posterior rate function optimization reveals data-dependent kernel selection.
Novel mutual information bound improves statistical inference rates.
problem Improving statistical inference rates in Bayesian nonparametrics.
method Introduces a novel mutual information bound.
result Improved contraction rates for fractional posteriors.
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo on ReLU networks is inefficient due to large local error.
problem Inefficiency of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo on ReLU neural networks.
method Analysis of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with leapfrog integrator for Bayesian neural network inference.
result Leapfrog HMC for ReLU networks has a large local error rate of Ω ( ε ) Ω(ε) Ω ( ε ) , leading to inefficiency. The paper tightens the regret rate for linear bandit problems.
problem Bayesian regret in linear bandit problems.
method Information-theoretic framework and chaining argument.
result Established a new bound with a tight rate of O ( d T ) O(d\sqrt{T}) O ( d T ) . Adaptive algorithm improves convergence rate of Langevin dynamics.
problem Improving convergence rate of Langevin dynamics.
method Adaptive non-reversible stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics algorithm.
result Improved convergence rate of the algorithm.
Introduces relative information gain for improving Gaussian process regression rates.
problem Improving the sample complexity of estimating or maximizing unknown functions.
method Introduces relative information gain, interpolates between effective dimension and information gain, and proves PAC-Bayesian bounds.
result Obtains minimax-optimal rates of convergence through the relative information gain.
We study capital process behavior in the fair-coin game and biased-coin games in the framework of the game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that if Skeptic uses a Bayesian strategy with a beta prior, the capital process is lucidly expressed in terms of the past average of Reality's moves. From t…