Optimal persuasion involves projecting state vectors onto lower-dimensional 'optimal information manifolds'.
problem Optimal persuasion of another agent observing multi-dimensional data.
method Performing non-linear dimension reduction by projecting state vectors onto the 'optimal information manifold'.
result Optimal information design splits information into 'good' and 'bad' components, revealing only the direction of good information.
DaringFed incentivizes clients in OFL with dynamic rewards under TII.
problem Designing incentives for OFL clients under dynamic, incomplete information.
method Formulated as a dynamic signaling and pricing allocation problem in a Bayesian persuasion game.
result Optimal design of DaringFed improves accuracy and convergence speed by 16.99%.
The study detects deceptive language in business communication using AI.
problem Deceptive language in business communication.
method Combining classical rhetoric, communication psychology, and linguistic theory with computational textual analysis and transformer models.
result Detection accuracies of over 99% achieved in controlled settings.
Paper uses ML to predict utility in APS dialogue outcomes.
problem Predict utility for different user subpopulations in APS.
method Develops EAI and EDS ML methods to predict utility functions.
result EDS more effective at predicting utility functions.
We define the information threshold in Bayesian decision-making.
problem Understanding the optimal amount of information for reliable classification.
method Defining the information threshold as the point of maximum curvature in the prior vs. posterior curve.
result At the information threshold, additional evidence does not significantly improve posterior probability.
We develop new algorithms for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, combining recent developments in transfer learning for neural networks with insights from the causal inference literature. By taking advantage of transfer learning, we are able to efficiently use different data sources that are related to the sam…
Transparency, user trust, and human comprehension are popular ethical motivations for interpretable machine learning. In support of these goals, researchers evaluate model explanation performance using humans and real world applications. This alone presents a challenge in many areas of artificial intelligence. In this …
This work frames active inference through control as inference, offering robust control algorithms.
problem Active inference framework lacks practical sensorimotor control algorithms.
method Frame active inference through control as inference, presenting trajectory optimization as inference.
result AI may be framed as partially-observed CaI when the cost function is defined in observation states.
With the advancement in argument detection, we suggest to pay more attention to the challenging task of identifying the more convincing arguments. Machines capable of responding and interacting with humans in helpful ways have become ubiquitous. We now expect them to discuss with us the more delicate questions in our w…
Maximum entropy deep reinforcement learning (RL) methods have been demonstrated on a range of challenging continuous tasks. However, existing methods either suffer from severe instability when training on large off-policy data or cannot scale to tasks with very high state and action dimensionality such as 3D humanoid l…
GPI uses GenAI models to infer causal and predictive effects from unstructured data.
problem Estimating causal and predictive effects from unstructured data like text and images.
method Leverages open-source GenAI models to generate and represent unstructured data, applying machine learning to these representations.
result GPI efficiently estimates causal and predictive effects with quantified uncertainty, without fine-tuning.
Interpretable Machine Learning (IML) has become increasingly important in many real-world applications, such as autonomous cars and medical diagnosis, where explanations are significantly preferred to help people better understand how machine learning systems work and further enhance their trust towards systems. Howeve…
This paper develops a machine learning model to assess credit risk in UAE commercial banks.
problem Lack of precision in conventional credit rating tools for accurate credit risk prediction.
method Constructs a credit risk assessment model using Linear Discriminant Analysis.
result Demonstrates improved accuracy in predicting good and bad creditors compared to conventional methods.
A framework uses proxies to prioritize treatment without estimating causal effects.
problem Prioritizing treatment when causal effects are hard to estimate.
method Decision-focused framework identifying conditions for proxy usefulness.
result Proxies can recover correct effect ordering under specific conditions.
Explainable recommendation is far from being well solved partly due to three challenges. The first is the personalization of preference learning, which requires that different items/users have different contributions to the learning of user preference or item quality. The second one is dynamic explanation, which is cru…
ChatGPT improves financial reasoning, overcoming biases in gold investment.
problem Improving financial reasoning and overcoming biases in investment decisions.
method Applied advanced prompt engineering and semantic news information to enhance LLMs' performance.
result ChatGPT with CoT prompt provides more explainable predictions and higher investment returns.
New method quantifies resilience of electric distribution systems from historical data.
problem Large blackouts caused by extreme winds have significant costs and impacts.
method Formulate large event risk from utility outage data, quantify resilience improvements through investments.
result Investments in wind hardening and faster restoration can reduce the probability of large cost events.
Unified Bayesian-AI framework improves epidemiological risk prediction and uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of calibrated uncertainty in machine learning models for epidemiology.
method Combines Bayesian prediction with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization using logistic regression and Gaussian-process Bayesian optimization.
result Unified Bayesian-AI framework provides reliable coverage and improved calibration, enhancing epidemiological decision making.
We exhibit a strong link between frequentist PAC-Bayesian risk bounds and the Bayesian marginal likelihood. That is, for the negative log-likelihood loss function, we show that the minimization of PAC-Bayesian generalization risk bounds maximizes the Bayesian marginal likelihood. This provides an alternative explanatio…
PAC-Bayesian bounds for MLPs with cross entropy loss validated.
problem Generalization bounds for MLPs with cross entropy loss.
method Introduced probabilistic explanations and proved PAC-Bayesian bounds using ELBO.
result MLPs with cross entropy loss inherently guarantee PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds.
Review of priors in Bayesian deep learning models.
problem The importance of prior choices in Bayesian deep learning models.
method Overview of different priors and methods of learning priors from data.
result Motivate practitioners to think carefully about prior specification.
Bayesian methods enhance deep learning models by improving reliability and uncertainty.
problem Improving reliability and uncertainty awareness in deep learning models.
method Approximate Bayesian inference techniques, including SG-MCMC and VI, applied to deep learning models.
result Enhanced posterior inference for deep learning models, particularly in neural networks and generative models.
Enhances robustness in experimental design through Generalised Bayesian inference.
problem Poor inference and estimates of information gain when statistical model is incorrectly specified.
method Generalised Bayesian (Gibbs) inference framework applied to experimental design.
result GBOED enhances robustness to outliers and incorrect assumptions about noise distribution.
Bayesian neural networks speed up numerical integration.
problem Scalability of Bayesian quadrature methods.
method Bayesian Stein networks using neural networks and Laplace approximation.
result Orders of magnitude speed-up on benchmark functions and real-world problems.
Bayesian uncertainty quantification is flawed, according to new research.
problem Flawed interpretation of Bayesian uncertainty quantification.
method Discussion of Bayesian updating and optimization-based perspective, proposing measures of quality.
result Bayesian uncertainty quantification is not coherent with optimization-based perspective.
Bayesian MAML outperforms MAML in meta learning tasks with theoretical guarantees.
problem Theoretical understanding of Bayesian MAML's superiority over MAML.
method Comparison of meta test risks between Bayesian MAML and MAML in meta linear regression.
result Bayesian MAML has provably lower meta test risks than MAML in both distribution agnostic and linear centroid cases.
One of the main challenges of deep learning tools is their inability to capture model uncertainty. While Bayesian deep learning can be used to tackle the problem, Bayesian neural networks often require more time and computational power to train than deterministic networks. Our work explores whether fully Bayesian netwo…
Bayesian coresets improve scalable Bayesian inference.
problem Efficiently approximating posterior inference with a subset of data.
method Sparsity constrained optimization and accelerated optimization methods.
result Explicit convergence rate guarantees and superior performance compared to state-of-the-art.
Nonlinear MCMC improves Bayesian machine learning sampling.
problem Sampling problems in Bayesian machine learning.
method Nonlinear MCMC technique with convergence guarantees.
result Improves sampling in Bayesian neural networks.
Discussing hybrid models in Bayesian networks.
problem Improving accuracy in network modeling.
method Hybrid semiparametric Bayesian approach.
result Enhanced model performance in complex networks.
FP-BMA improves generalization by encouraging flat posteriors in Bayesian Model Averaging.
problem Lack of flat posterior in approximate Bayesian inference methods hinders effective Bayesian Model Averaging.
method Proposes Flat Posterior-aware Bayesian Model Averaging (FP-BMA) and Flat Posterior-aware Bayesian Transfer Learning schemes.
result FP-BMA successfully captures flat posteriors, improving generalization performance.
Proposes OBS, a method to adaptively combine Bayesian models online.
problem Learning optimal combinations of Bayesian models in online learning.
method Empirical Bayes lens, Online Bayesian Stacking (OBS).
result Establishes a novel connection between OBS and portfolio selection.
We study the problem of learning Bayesian network structures from data. We develop an algorithm for finding the k-best Bayesian network structures. We propose to compute the posterior probabilities of hypotheses of interest by Bayesian model averaging over the k-best Bayesian networks. We present empirical results on s…
Bayesian neural networks use temperature adjustments to improve predictive performance.
problem Lack of theoretical generalization guarantees for Bayesian neural networks.
method Temperature adjustments to balance likelihood and prior regularization.
result Improved predictive performance through temperature adjustments.
SCoreBO improves Bayesian optimization by learning hyperparameters and self-correcting.
problem Efficient hyperparameter tuning for Gaussian process models in Bayesian optimization.
method Introduces SAL and SCoreBO, which prioritize hyperparameter learning and perform simultaneous optimization and learning.
result SCoreBO outperforms state-of-the-art methods on traditional benchmarks and atypical tasks.
In this paper we introduce ZhuSuan, a python probabilistic programming library for Bayesian deep learning, which conjoins the complimentary advantages of Bayesian methods and deep learning. ZhuSuan is built upon Tensorflow. Unlike existing deep learning libraries, which are mainly designed for deterministic neural netw…
Bayesian optimization with cost-awareness using Gittins index.
problem Optimizing unknown functions with limited data evaluations and costs.
method Developed a connection between cost-aware Bayesian optimization and the Pandora's Box problem, using the Gittins index as an acquisition function.
result The Gittins index-based acquisition function performs well in cost-aware Bayesian optimization, especially in high dimensions.
This work improves mixing rates for Bayesian CART, a key component of BART.
problem Understanding and improving mixing rates for Bayesian inference with MCMC.
method Derived upper bounds on mixing times, provided sufficient conditions for polynomial mixing, and proposed Twiggy Bayesian CART.
result Twiggy Bayesian CART achieves polynomial mixing without assuming signal connectivity.
Bayesian hybrid models fuse physics-based insights with machine learning constructs to correct for systematic bias. In this paper, we compare Bayesian hybrid models against physics-based glass-box and Gaussian process black-box surrogate models. We consider ballistic firing as an illustrative case study for a Bayesian …
Inference in popular nonparametric Bayesian models typically relies on sampling or other approximations. This paper presents a general methodology for constructing novel tractable nonparametric Bayesian methods by applying the kernel trick to inference in a parametric Bayesian model. For example, Gaussian process regre…
Bayesian networks with latent variables are characterized and their likelihoods compared.
problem Characterizing and comparing likelihoods of Bayesian networks with latent variables.
method Characterized likelihood function and empirical Bayesian network. Proved dominance of global maximum likelihood from empirical model.
result The global maximum likelihood of the original Bayesian network is attained if and only if parameters are consistent with empirical model.
Explosive growth in data and availability of cheap computing resources have sparked increasing interest in Big learning, an emerging subfield that studies scalable machine learning algorithms, systems, and applications with Big Data. Bayesian methods represent one important class of statistic methods for machine learni…
Bayesian reward learning from demonstrations enables rigorous safety and uncertainty analysis when performing imitation learning. However, Bayesian reward learning methods are typically computationally intractable for complex control problems. We propose Bayesian Reward Extrapolation (Bayesian REX), a highly efficient …
We focus on an interpolation method referred to Bayesian reconstruction in this paper. Whereas in standard interpolation methods missing data are interpolated deterministically, in Bayesian reconstruction, missing data are interpolated probabilistically using a Bayesian treatment. In this paper, we address the framewor…
Recently several researchers have investigated techniques for using data to learn Bayesian networks containing compact representations for the conditional probability distributions (CPDs) stored at each node. The majority of this work has concentrated on using decision-tree representations for the CPDs. In addition, re…
Study improves Bayesian optimisation with ensemble transfer learning.
problem Improving sample efficiency in Bayesian optimisation of expensive functions.
method Empirical analysis of ensemble-based transfer learning methods and pipeline components.
result Two components (warm start initialisation and positive weight constraint) improve transfer learning Bayesian optimisation performance.
Bayesian priors offer a compact yet general means of incorporating domain knowledge into many learning tasks. The correctness of the Bayesian analysis and inference, however, largely depends on accuracy and correctness of these priors. PAC-Bayesian methods overcome this problem by providing bounds that hold regardless …
A new clustering method using Bayesian techniques improves robustness and interpretability.
problem Improving clustering techniques for better robustness and interpretability.
method The paper proposes a novel Bayesian clustering method using the proper Bayesian bootstrap, which combines k-means clustering and ensemble clustering.
result The method provides clear indication on the optimal number of clusters and a better representation of the clustered data.